Mass Effect 17er [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Esooa

I really dislike these 3 posts above. In his reads lists he puts Eph only at null with GH in v, and later says the influence to put Eph in his null's was partially because of GH's case. However, in the 3rd quote, he agrees that GH looked bad and that GH's jump back to Eph looked bad, so I'm not sure why that's influencing him? I'm curious too why Ara and Cuth might be town cored for not having scum agenda or disruptive play, because these are both just as applicable to Eph.



And expresses apprehension here to vote GH, primarily from what I can pick up because GH cased Dolby early on. This was SoD1, and there was little to no follow up on it. I don't get why he's considering this much.

@pzelda if you can explain your Eph read a bit more that'd be cool

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fwiw i played with v!capage in sf3 and this doesn’t concern me coming from him. he’s kind of like a weathervane. as in, he changes his mind a lot even from post to post because he gets easily influenced by other people’s opinions and his mind seems to go in a lot of different directions. this sort of thing is what kept him in the poe D1 because people tend to find it wolfy, but i think it’s villagery for capage (and maybe even in general). it’s just kinda how he operates and i’m pretty confident he’s a villager here

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Originally Posted by dyachei

not specifically but that's why I'm wary of them. I need to see how things progress to get a good read there

hally does have their own cases but tends to be a little more sheepy as village as days go on

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dya, I am really trying to hold back here, because I've certainly had my share of games where I just Haven't Had It as town and know that this could come from either alignment. I think that your RL demands are impacting your play and your posting would be different regardless, and I'm trying not to make things even more frustrating for you.

But you just feel super out of vibe with the thread and not in a way that's NAI to me. Like, you see the votes and focus on you; secondarily, you've had me as steady town to varying degrees over the course of the game. You and I are being linked together and we're taking the most heat of anybody ITT. From your POV, where you're a) town and b) correct, you should be seeing that things are about to get disastrous here if things hold their current course, but I'm not seeing any inkling of real urgency or fire from you. I really am trying to picture myself as somebody who just doesn't have time and is doing what I can, but I still think that if this was true, and if you were town, it'd be coming out differently.

Like you've expressed skepticism about Hally but the most you can do with it is "well I need more time" with nothing super concrete about it besides the fact that they get sheepier as town, as time progresses.
Your biggest push and focus has been on Esooa so far, and from my POV it's mostly focusing the issue of "doesn't remember why she voted who she did on d1" which just... doesn't do anything for me.

I truly am sorry if you're town here and I'm just piling on to what's already being a tough gameday for you, but right now I'm just not seeing enough.

I also think Rask seems villagery, GH's post right there was... bad on both Visor and Dya but it is plausibly the reaction he has (see: alpacas) to Visor making the push, though I really don't see the reasoning. Pzelda seems unaligned with Dya. Still like Eph, think Esooa's like 75% to me locking her in but hasn't quite gotten to the depth I'd look for. Manasi pushes are boring, just poison her if she keeps not existing but it's very close to rand either direction.

gh, i share visor’s concerns about your D1 specifically if we’re living in a w!dya world and think they’re entirely justified. obviously i know you’re not gonna admit to being a wolf but i think you should be able to acknowledge there’s cause for concern

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

dya, I am really trying to hold back here, because I've certainly had my share of games where I just Haven't Had It as town and know that this could come from either alignment. I think that your RL demands are impacting your play and your posting would be different regardless, and I'm trying not to make things even more frustrating for you.

But you just feel super out of vibe with the thread and not in a way that's NAI to me. Like, you see the votes and focus on you; secondarily, you've had me as steady town to varying degrees over the course of the game. You and I are being linked together and we're taking the most heat of anybody ITT. From your POV, where you're a) town and b) correct, you should be seeing that things are about to get disastrous here if things hold their current course, but I'm not seeing any inkling of real urgency or fire from you. I really am trying to picture myself as somebody who just doesn't have time and is doing what I can, but I still think that if this was true, and if you were town, it'd be coming out differently.

Like you've expressed skepticism about Hally but the most you can do with it is "well I need more time" with nothing super concrete about it besides the fact that they get sheepier as town, as time progresses.
Your biggest push and focus has been on Esooa so far, and from my POV it's mostly focusing the issue of "doesn't remember why she voted who she did on d1" which just... doesn't do anything for me.

I truly am sorry if you're town here and I'm just piling on to what's already being a tough gameday for you, but right now I'm just not seeing enough.

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i havent read hally's iso yet, I'm still in esooas


and i guess there is no urgency because people don't feel like they're going to take what I'm saying into account. I had like 4 votes first thing last night

even i know when i'm a lost cause

i'm just gonna keep trying to solve through isos and leave a legacy

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Originally Posted by Hally

i don’t think she’s really been in the background here? but re: the difference in aggression/tone, i’ve noticed it but i don’t think it’s AI. she’s playing her first game on a new site with almost all new people and iirc she said D1 that she was embarrassed about the impression she made in team game/was nervous about playing with some of us again because of that. her dialing back her aggression is consistent with that and not something i’m going to hold against her

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aye that's a good point

:2thumbsup:

dya, the impression i get from your read on me is that you feel like v!you would be paranoid of me and so you’re trying to replicate that to hide your tmi. it’s like you think it would look bad if you v read me too easily given you do tend to be more wary of me than most but you’re stretching it past the point where it would have become obvious to you that i’m villaging if you were genuinely trying to read me

like I'm damned if i do damned if I don't

with esooa it was a hard ping for me.

I like that they kind of bounce around d1 with their reads. I don't think they're w/w with dolby based on how she talks about him but I find her push on visor for being "weird" weird. like you wanna talk about random reasons to read someone - it was based on post length

so i'm still leaning wolf there but not as hard as i was this morning

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Originally Posted by Hally

dya, the impression i get from your read on me is that you feel like v!you would be paranoid of me and so you’re trying to replicate that to hide your tmi. it’s like you think it would look bad if you v read me too easily given you do tend to be more wary of me than most but you’re stretching it past the point where it would have become obvious to you that i’m villaging if you were genuinely trying to read me

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this is a really uncool read. you're coming into it with preconceived notions and just confbiasing yourself into the same read

I feel like you should be attempting to talk to me but you're really just talking at me and it feels bad

vote: dyachei

this game is a disappointment for everyone when looking at me so why not just get it over with

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

I also think Rask seems villagery, GH's post right there was... bad on both Visor and Dya but it is plausibly the reaction he has (see: alpacas) to Visor making the push, though I really don't see the reasoning. Pzelda seems unaligned with Dya. Still like Eph, think Esooa's like 75% to me locking her in but hasn't quite gotten to the depth I'd look for. Manasi pushes are boring, just poison her if she keeps not existing but it's very close to rand either direction.

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can you give me a quick tiered list or something? it’s kinda bothering me that i don’t have a read on you yet

people aren't trying to read what I'm doing, they're assuming activity tells are ever AI for me

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Originally Posted by Hally

gh, i share visor’s concerns about your D1 specifically if we’re living in a w!dya world and think they’re entirely justified. obviously i know you’re not gonna admit to being a wolf but i think you should be able to acknowledge there’s cause for concern

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There is absolutely cause for concern with me if dya is mafia and I fully acknowledge this. My EOD behavior was openly and admittedly designed to keep dya alive and I will fully cop to it and own up to my mistakes if this ends up being the case. However, where I have an issue is with people not understanding why I prioritized Amy/Rask over dya in the first place, when I said it (and why) many many times over the course of D1 and D2:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I think this is a good take.

I don't think either of them posted well enough to have townreads slapped on them at that point, and Visor (at least I think it's Visor? I could be equating him with someone else) has been notably good at slapping people down from reading him too early in the past before. So I think his Steamed Hams response (the long vertical pic) to Amy's townread of him tracked with that, but then he just... kind of backed off and finished the meme, rather than explore it further. A little weird of Amy to put down that read at that point, a little weird of Visor to respond to it/finish off the conversation in that way.

I wish it had happened something like 12-24 hours later than it actually did because then the lingering caveat of "well, game's still early" could have been removed, but it'll be something to watch for sure.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Maybe? I mean I don't think it's an instant rule-out. I think Amy is the more likely of the two to be bad from it, just because I went back and reread it and Visor's conclusion of finishing the meme off came immediately after he posted the pic and not because of a response from Amy in between.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I mentioned more than once that I didn't feel all that good about Amy's and Visor's interaction, specifically regarding the bit around Steamed Hams, and I liked how Visor came in hot/the way he did and thought it was pretty townie of him to do so in that exact way. I don't really have a specific read on Amy beyond me not liking that interaction, but my general thought upon moving my vote to Amy was "sure, we can roll with this".

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Seems good enough to me. :stupido:

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Town
pzelda | Hally | Esooa

Town enough
Ara | Visor

Town for now
Sunbae | Colonel | Csargo

Unsure/no data available
Cuth | Manasi | Maple | Monty

Concerns
Dolby | Ephemeral | Amy

Not really ordered within tiers. Going to bed now, will answer followups (if any) in the AM.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

There's always one. dya probably goes in one of the two bottom categories, let's be generous and say "unsure/no data available" for now.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

There are two interesting pairs in this game that I've noticed:

Pair 1: The "lacking" duo of Ampharos/dyachei
Both have come under heavy scrutiny here and "lackingness" has been a big part of why. For dya especially, their posts haven't been actively bad, just Not Town Dya. This can be easily explained by their given excuse and I think I'd buy it regardless of their actual alignment, but that still leaves the problem of what to do with their actual posts. As for Amy, I think her posting has been outright scummier, for her early Visor take (which I and others picked up on), and for her supposed shift in thinking w/r/t basis for reading people (which Sunbae picked up on and I don't disagree with). There's nothing here that says the two of them, Amy and dya, can't be paired, and overall I'm mostly including them here to set up a contrast between the second pair I want to talk about. If we're going here today, I think I'd go with Amy over dya due to some outright problems as opposed to overall lacking-ness, but would probably not be surprised at either of them flipping as either alignment.

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[QUOTE=GeneralHankerchief;2053814385]I guess overall, and barring further developments, I'd like to chop within Eph/Dolby/[Amy if it comes to it] today as per my above walls. Amy and dya both get a courtesy of giving them time to get into things, but Amy less so because I feel like she's been somewhat actively wolfy as opposed to dya, who just hasn't really done much. I'm not interested in chopping Monty today, though I reserve the right to put him back on the table D2 depending on how things go. Neither am I interested in chopping Maple today, I feel like that would be stupid and feel like people are just kind of baseline scumreading him due to seeing him a LOT as mafia recently. I'm not seeing what they're seeing here.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

If we're going between Amy and dya, I'd much rather it be Amy, simply because I think there are more active negatives for Amy than there are with dya.

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All of these quotes in the spoiler come well before EOD1 and detail my thinking over why I preferred Amy/Rask over dya, and considering I already talked about it again at SOD2 I really don't think it bears continued repeating. There are perfectly valid reasons to push me and I will grant that my associatives will look absolutely atrocious if Rask flips town and if dya flips mafia. However, pushing me from a perspective of "I don't understand why he treated Amy differently from dya" is far, far different than "he tried to save the one mafia who was viable at EOD". One actually makes sense. The other, especially considering I have explained it time and again, is approaching the territory of "actively failing to listen".

Hally, where are we at if dya v?

dya what do you want to chat about

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Originally Posted by dyachei

this is a really uncool read. you're coming into it with preconceived notions and just confbiasing yourself into the same read

I feel like you should be attempting to talk to me but you're really just talking at me and it feels bad

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i’m sorry, i’m not trying to frustrate you but i’m just not vibing with your posts

i want to engage with you more but it’s hard when all you’ve been talking about so far this day is your esooa read, which i don’t agree with. is there anything else we can talk about?

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Originally Posted by dyachei

vote: dyachei

this game is a disappointment for everyone when looking at me so why not just get it over with

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oh dear

Eph, can i get a sentence each on: hally, monty, dolby?

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Originally Posted by Ephemeral

dya what do you want to chat about

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I dont even know. people are just talking about and at me though, not to me. And it sucks to be told what a disappointment I am over and over again

dya, i’m really sorry if i upset you. i’m going to leave you be, okay?

actually dya, I'm interested in hearing your take on manti aorn

also talk to me about nl/gh while you're at it

Leaving GHs tone aside, what do you make of his pushes/the general directions he's been taking this game?

[QUOTE=GeneralHankerchief;2053814990]There is absolutely cause for concern with me if dya is mafia and I fully acknowledge this. My EOD behavior was openly and admittedly designed to keep dya alive and I will fully cop to it and own up to my mistakes if this ends up being the case. However, where I have an issue is with people not understanding why I prioritized Amy/Rask over dya in the first place, when I said it (and why) many many times over the course of D1 and D2:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I guess overall, and barring further developments, I'd like to chop within Eph/Dolby/[Amy if it comes to it] today as per my above walls. Amy and dya both get a courtesy of giving them time to get into things, but Amy less so because I feel like she's been somewhat actively wolfy as opposed to dya, who just hasn't really done much. I'm not interested in chopping Monty today, though I reserve the right to put him back on the table D2 depending on how things go. Neither am I interested in chopping Maple today, I feel like that would be stupid and feel like people are just kind of baseline scumreading him due to seeing him a LOT as mafia recently. I'm not seeing what they're seeing here.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

All of these quotes in the spoiler come well before EOD1 and detail my thinking over why I preferred Amy/Rask over dya, and considering I already talked about it again at SOD2 I really don't think it bears continued repeating. There are perfectly valid reasons to push me and I will grant that my associatives will look absolutely atrocious if Rask flips town and if dya flips mafia. However, pushing me from a perspective of "I don't understand why he treated Amy differently from dya" is far, far different than "he tried to save the one mafia who was viable at EOD". One actually makes sense. The other, especially considering I have explained it time and again, is approaching the territory of "actively failing to listen".

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Like, let me elaborate: Let's say Visor comes in on D2 and starts pushing me because he thinks I was trying to invoke powerwolf.jpg at EOD yesterday and save a partner, just like I was trying to do in the team game except this time more successfully. I go "well yeah, this *does* look bad for me, doesn't it?" and put my pants on and try to work through stuff without giving him a second glance.

Visor didn't do that though. He spent time on my Eph push and then framed his me/dya take by continuing to be confused why I prioritized Amy/Rask over dya in the first place, which, as I just detailed above, is a thing that I very much spent time on D1 and should not be a point of confusion to anyone in the game reading.

See the difference?

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Originally Posted by Hally

uh, i didn’t bold anything but it was supposed to be “the way wagons were yesterday suggest that she's more likely town than scum” @pzelda

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Yeah, I forgot it wasn't a tie in the end.
@Raskolnikov - ride or die with Maple I can't really explain. I guess it was an early feeling the slot was giving me. As you can see I'm not there anymore. @Esooa - My read on Eph is kinda lacking. Maybe it's because his posts are kinda bland. I think he looked great early on, but his contributions were more about agreeing with others than yours or Hally's. He was in touch with the thread, but not adding much of his own. GH picked this up and I had to agree with his take. It's something I'm still keeping an eye on. I don't see it as damning as GH does. I don't exactly know what to expect from Eph, but him following the thread instead of making his own solving keeps me wary.

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

Eph, can i get a sentence each on: hally, monty, dolby?

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I've been vibing pretty hard with Hally since early D1, and with team game recently behind us I think I'm better attuned to their process as villagers in general. I'm pretty confident they're villagers here and don't see myself looking in that general direction anytime soon

Monty has had plenty of ??? posts, however idt it's in a bad way? Like I'm looking over his posts and it feels like he's just living/solving in his own bubble which makes me think >rand v

Dolby I liked early d1, he dropped off quite a bit as the game went on though. iirc made some decent posts around last EoD but... not much else. gth still v but I'm not married to the read by any means

[QUOTE=GeneralHankerchief;2053814990]There is absolutely cause for concern with me if dya is mafia and I fully acknowledge this. My EOD behavior was openly and admittedly designed to keep dya alive and I will fully cop to it and own up to my mistakes if this ends up being the case. However, where I have an issue is with people not understanding why I prioritized Amy/Rask over dya in the first place, when I said it (and why) many many times over the course of D1 and D2:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I guess overall, and barring further developments, I'd like to chop within Eph/Dolby/[Amy if it comes to it] today as per my above walls. Amy and dya both get a courtesy of giving them time to get into things, but Amy less so because I feel like she's been somewhat actively wolfy as opposed to dya, who just hasn't really done much. I'm not interested in chopping Monty today, though I reserve the right to put him back on the table D2 depending on how things go. Neither am I interested in chopping Maple today, I feel like that would be stupid and feel like people are just kind of baseline scumreading him due to seeing him a LOT as mafia recently. I'm not seeing what they're seeing here.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

All of these quotes in the spoiler come well before EOD1 and detail my thinking over why I preferred Amy/Rask over dya, and considering I already talked about it again at SOD2 I really don't think it bears continued repeating. There are perfectly valid reasons to push me and I will grant that my associatives will look absolutely atrocious if Rask flips town and if dya flips mafia. However, pushing me from a perspective of "I don't understand why he treated Amy differently from dya" is far, far different than "he tried to save the one mafia who was viable at EOD". One actually makes sense. The other, especially considering I have explained it time and again, is approaching the territory of "actively failing to listen".

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i can’t speak for visor, but where my issue lies at least is i feel like you purposefully downplayed concerns about dya when you should have been more concerned about them than you were. but this is all moot if dya is a villager and i don’t really want to discuss it more right now

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Originally Posted by Ephemeral

actually dya, I'm interested in hearing your take on manti aorn

also talk to me about nl/gh while you're at it

Leaving GHs tone aside, what do you make of his pushes/the general directions he's been taking this game?

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manti's not memeing enough

it's a real thing

I don't care about the cooking pictures because he does or doesnt do those as both alignment (see: rocks)

but he's been on topic for the majority of the game (still need to reread his iso, too, because d1 didn't stick with me that much)

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Originally Posted by Hally

i can’t speak for visor, but where my issue lies at least is i feel like you purposefully downplayed concerns about dya when you should have been more concerned about them than you were. but this is all moot if dya is a villager and i don’t really want to discuss it more right now

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fixed quote

I think gh's tone is way different. He's dropped the formalities he uses when he's a wolf and his tone has been way more casual

I think a wolf wouldn't have bothered trying to save me yesterday

so why would gh try to save me as a wolf?

vote: GeneralHankerchief

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

Hally, where are we at if dya v?

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i don’t know and i feel bad now because i think they could be

This is honestly :daisy:ing exasperating.

Vote: Cuthalion

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

To head off any questions, Visor is probably my biggest drop on this from yesterday and I think it has to do in large part to how he's treating my slot; I find it hard to believe that he, specifically, has locked himself into a mafia!GH world and is solving around from there and that he really can't even entertain a town motive in my actions.



The bolded line specifically is just atrocious considering how many times I've explained my thought process w/r/t preferring Amy/Rask over dya on d1 and him just outright refusing to recognize it, I've spent too much time and effort on it already and at this point I think he's willfully misinterpreting my posts to get what he wants.

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Yeah, this is what I wanted to see. Honestly, I'm moving among several possible worlds right now and it makes my reads super flippy-floppy. But I wanted to see you suspect Visor, because after agreeing with Visor I realized, that this is the only path scum Visor could take after gunning for Amy/Rask yesterday without looking sus. I'm still not decided whether I want to go with you scum, Visor scum or someone else, but I'm glad to see this and it makes the game less black and white.
Ofc, your move is defensive here and that makes it more difficult to read, but it also makes perfect sense to be suspicious of Visor's push in your position as town.

I hope my words are clear enough for everyone to understand them. If not, I think this is one thing I can easily reword or expand on.

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

vote: GeneralHankerchief

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Vote: Cuthalion

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sup?

manasi had like 2 posts on topic and that might be a decent look for her iirc

@Visor

why did you call dolby v so early? what post did it for you?

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Originally Posted by Hally

sup?

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90% frustration.

10% something that may actually be AI for him but realistically I'm leveling myself into thinking the figure could be that high.

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Originally Posted by dyachei

I dont even know. people are just talking about and at me though, not to me. And it sucks to be told what a disappointment I am over and over again

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I enjoy playing with you! And I guess we all have enough respect for you to expect more!!! If you're town, just don't take it personally and do your best to have a good time.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

90% frustration.

10% something that may actually be AI for him but realistically I'm leveling myself into thinking the figure could be that high.

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and that is...?

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Originally Posted by dyachei

I think gh's tone is way different. He's dropped the formalities he uses when he's a wolf and his tone has been way more casual

I think a wolf wouldn't have bothered trying to save me yesterday

so why would gh try to save me as a wolf?

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meh, wifom

Besides it wasn't just GH that made a play to save you yesterday, manti also did the same thing

And while GH actually had some semblance of progression towards voting to save you, manti went out of his way at eod to claim he thinks you should die and argue into voting your counter on some "wagon formation" shenanigans instead

Did that move not stand out to you in any way?

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Originally Posted by Ephemeral

actually dya, I'm interested in hearing your take on manti aorn

also talk to me about nl/gh while you're at it

Leaving GHs tone aside, what do you make of his pushes/the general directions he's been taking this game?

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I feel like Eph's is doing things right now. I'm interested to see where it leads him.

vote: Montmorency

exclusively for his comment on "what if they're both villagers what then huh" earlier today

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Originally Posted by Hally

and that is...?

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Nothing worth talking about.

I'm trying to untilt myself and get back to trying to find more town, please don't ask me to follow up on this.

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Originally Posted by dyachei

manti's not memeing enough

it's a real thing

I don't care about the cooking pictures because he does or doesnt do those as both alignment (see: rocks)

but he's been on topic for the majority of the game (still need to reread his iso, too, because d1 didn't stick with me that much)

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This is actually a good take.

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Originally Posted by Ephemeral

meh, wifom

Besides it wasn't just GH that made a play to save you yesterday, manti also did the same thing

And while GH actually had some semblance of progression towards voting to save you, manti went out of his way at eod to claim he thinks you should die and argue into voting your counter on some "wagon formation" shenanigans instead

Did that move not stand out to you in any way?

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i wasn't around at EOD due to a birthday dinner for my mom

which is why i've been focusing on ISOs today

I'll look at manti after I finish looking at visor but i vaguely knew he saved me, not that he wanted me dead as well

GH, I v-read your entry to the day, I think a fair amount of what you've done really makes a lot of sense if you're a villager here, but I also think you're being a bit reactionary with the Visor vote. He could absolutely be a wolf, but his thought process and progression have been reasonable and fine so far. My vote on you was mostly for how... mechanical your flip over to dya today felt? It felt like you'd chosen not to push there and then you chose to do without much change on their end in between.

Where are you at on Eph at present?

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Originally Posted by dyachei

i wasn't around at EOD due to a birthday dinner for my mom

which is why i've been focusing on ISOs today

I'll look at manti after I finish looking at visor but i vaguely knew he saved me, not that he wanted me dead as well

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happy belated birthday!

lmk what you get after going through it:2thumbsup:

gonna head out. @ me with stuff, etc

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Originally Posted by pzelda

This is actually a good take.

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(fwiw that's kind of how I'd expect dya to read manti's play so far, to some extent)

nothing major as I think they'd be able to fake that read atp but it's there

visor's probably town and i can't really tell you why. I expect him to push me here because of my activity levels and i don't think he's only focusing on that for his reads

just feels organic

Ok,
I know I'm getting too influenced by the thread again, but let me show you where I'm at. I think Visor is at least partially off with his takes, but he's selling them harder than usual. I'm scared of that. If he's scum, it's quite possible that all of Rask/Dya/GH are towns.
If Visor's town, there's a good chance that he's correct about GH. GH made some reckless moves yesterday. I think his votes were weirdly sudden and that he went too hard to case some people as mafia personally. But he also made a bunch of good posts and built a solid towncore. This thing is difficult to see, but GH probably led town yesterday and had the most influence on other players.

There's also a smaller possibility that both of them are towns. In this case, Visor's surprisingly off this game, but whatever. I would look for wolves among less impactful players such as Maple, Eph, Manasi and Cuth.

There's also probably exactly one wolf in Dolby, Monty and Rask with an outside chance of both Monty and Dolby being wolves. I don't think Dolby would be confident enough to defend his partner like this, tho. I'm not 100% ruling out Rask yet, but I struggle to see him as wolf with Visor changing his read (I know that a lot of my read is just my respect for Visor's ability to have good reads). Dolby's imho more sus than Monty for his defense of the latter as it could be a pocket.

Let's try this:

0 wolves in (presumably):
Hally, Colonel, Ara

0-1 wolf
GH, Visor, Rask

1 wolf
Rask, Dolby, Monty

1-2 wolves
Cuth, Maple, Manasi, Eph, Esooa

0-1 wolf
Dya

Rask is two different groups because of his interactions, but my opinion rn is that he isn't the wolf in either. The group of five players is interesting because it always includes a wolf and because players in it mostly can be wolves together.
Ara and Colonel could be in the big group, but I decided to go with my guts there and put them in lock towns for today.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dyachei

visor's probably town and i can't really tell you why. I expect him to push me here because of my activity levels and i don't think he's only focusing on that for his reads

just feels organic

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I think this is a meh self-centric take. Basically, he's pushing a bigger fish via an association with you (not only that, but it's part of his read).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

GH, I v-read your entry to the day, I think a fair amount of what you've done really makes a lot of sense if you're a villager here, but I also think you're being a bit reactionary with the Visor vote. He could absolutely be a wolf, but his thought process and progression have been reasonable and fine so far. My vote on you was mostly for how... mechanical your flip over to dya today felt? It felt like you'd chosen not to push there and then you chose to do without much change on their end in between.

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A lot of this is under the hood stuff since I didn't really talk much between last night (US time) and this afternoon, but I just took a step back and started thinking, really. I read Rask's posts and decided he had a decent shot of being town. I went back over dya's posts and turned them over in my head, trying to put them in the perspective of someone who isn't able to spend much time on the game, and decided that they still would have been different if dya was actually town even given this factor.

With Eph, I need to reread him, but I'm less concerned about him today than I was yesterday. I don't think he's really trying to force much (granted, I specifically called him out for something similar but in a scummy way yesterday), but, like, we were wrong yesterday and general consensus is we're about to be wrong with our poison today. Even if you're mafia in a good position, I think there's an inherent level of stress that rises when the crunch starts to come in and you find fewer towns to push. This usually shows up in a couple of ways: either someone's reads end up being super stagnant and come out as trying to force towns on the track they're already taking, or they try to emulate the "stressed" tone of town in this spot and it just doesn't come off right. I don't really detect either from Eph, and that's a good thing.

pzelda, do you have a Dolby scum game I can look at or just generally talk about his scum meta?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

I think are almost always villagers
Hally, Ara

I am pretty sure they are villagers but they have some skepticism on them so I'll keep an eye on it
pZelda, Colonel, GH

Gut says V but I'm not confident in it
Esooa, Dya, Mont, Ephem, Cuth

Others feel good about but I'm skeptical of for a few reasons
Visor, Dolby

Few reasons to scumreads
Maple, Ampharos, Csargo

In this game
Manasi

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I might sheep Sunbae here. Visor's notably in scumleans.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pzelda

I think this is a meh self-centric take. Basically, he's pushing a bigger fish via an association with you (not only that, but it's part of his read).

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visor has enough experience with me he knows when I'm off? it's just not AI this game

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

pzelda, do you have a Dolby scum game I can look at or just generally talk about his scum meta?

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I think this is the only game I played with waffling Dolbster: https://forums.civfanatics.com/threa...3p-win.655151/
I don't remember a whole lot, but he relied on meta a lot (but he started relying on it more as both alignments lately). He was backstabby too and he struggled to scumread his usual townreads. What's he has been doing with Monty reminds me of it a little, but I admit that he just might have a good meta read. If he's town, his meta on me is garbage for some reason.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

A lot of this is under the hood stuff since I didn't really talk much between last night (US time) and this afternoon, but I just took a step back and started thinking, really. I read Rask's posts and decided he had a decent shot of being town. I went back over dya's posts and turned them over in my head, trying to put them in the perspective of someone who isn't able to spend much time on the game, and decided that they still would have been different if dya was actually town even given this factor.

With Eph, I need to reread him, but I'm less concerned about him today than I was yesterday. I don't think he's really trying to force much (granted, I specifically called him out for something similar but in a scummy way yesterday), but, like, we were wrong yesterday and general consensus is we're about to be wrong with our poison today. Even if you're mafia in a good position, I think there's an inherent level of stress that rises when the crunch starts to come in and you find fewer towns to push. This usually shows up in a couple of ways: either someone's reads end up being super stagnant and come out as trying to force towns on the track they're already taking, or they try to emulate the "stressed" tone of town in this spot and it just doesn't come off right. I don't really detect either from Eph, and that's a good thing.

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Cool, I appreciate this a lot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dyachei

visor has enough experience with me he knows when I'm off? it's just not AI this game

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I don't think that it's about having enough experience with you what I'm trying to say. I meant he just put you in scumreads and didn't bother to push you. But he used that scumread to gain more ground for his actual push. I think you should find that at least lil fishy and not towny.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pzelda

I don't think that it's about having enough experience with you what I'm trying to say. I meant he just put you in scumreads and didn't bother to push you. But he used that scumread to gain more ground for his actual push. I think you should find that at least lil fishy and not towny.

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i mean visor does the association thing even early in my experiences with him? but maybe you're right and I'm just being naive

Maple

tbh, right now I feel like a got myself in the middle of a warp. I have thoughts on everyone, but my reads are full of associations and maybes, which shouldn't be there. I dislike working with associations so much before mafia flips. And even after that, they might be misleading.
So, honest individual takes:

Visor - I think I might return to my original read. Visor's tryharding this game and I don't think it's a good look.
Montmorency - I dislike most of his posts and the total judgement. It makes it harder to read him tonally, but the content overall was out of touch. I think that even today, while his posts had good parts, it was too judgemental for someone, who occasionally visits the thread.
Cuthillius - kinda there, but difficult to grasp
Rask - I liked that he started solving today and I mindmelded with some of his takes. I can't quite get over Amy's posts, tho.
GeneralHankerchief - Good solving and building of town, his votes and cases are making me paranoid about him.
Hally - town
Arapocalypse - town
Esooa - I still think Esooa should be town, but her readlist yesterday wasn't the best and she definitely started posting less after the solving started. I need to check her posts for progressions.
Dolby - I suspect him. I said enough about that.
Manasi - used Hello in her opening. So, she probably is a lock town.
ColonelLubriderm - town
dyachei - probably thrown under wheels by other wolves if wolf. I'm still not 100% sure, because there are 2 or 3 takes from Dya I like.
Maple - read Dya's take. It's good. Has mafioso potential.
Ephemeral - blending, but I got a feeling that he's doing things under hood. The results will significantly swing my read.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dyachei

i mean visor does the association thing even early in my experiences with him? but maybe you're right and I'm just being naive

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It's possible. Do you think scum Visor would be happy with pushing just you?

Some things for me to do. I need to figure out rask. He's mutually exclusive with quite a few people.
Take a look at Csargo voters. Dya was off-wagon, so even if she's a wolf, there probably was an early w voter on him. I would look for people who were either gunning against dya yeet or arbitrary in their approach to Csargo. Even with many of us having his blood on our hands, that lynch was an atrocity. This should give me a pool of people to work with for my vote today.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Zack Brannigan

Final Tally

:skull: 7 Csargo (Sunbae, Arapocalypse, Hally, Montmorency, GeneralHankerchief, ColonelLubriderm, Maple)

5 dyachei (Raskolnikov, Visor, Manasi, Ephemeral, Esooa)

3 Raskolnikov (pzelda, Cuthillius, Dolby)

2 Esooa (Csargo, dyachei)

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At first look Monty fits the bill, but I need to take a proper look at switches and such.

I need to take a night long break now and do some drawing.

manti had a read in like his first 30 posts. that's pretty weird for manti (it was monty wolfy)

and then says he thinks everyone is wolfy

he also agrees with me that esooa doesn't look that great but doesn't really do anything with it

i see the wants to vote me and make me die but wants to vote csargo more and I agree that's weird @Ephemeral. but I'm more pinged with how on topic he's been

vote: maple

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pzelda

It's possible. Do you think scum Visor would be happy with pushing just you?

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probably not

I considered claiming Poisoner for the lolz but I was concerned that one of the people who don't know me is the real poisoner and would CC me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pzelda

Some things for me to do. I need to figure out rask. He's mutually exclusive with quite a few people.
Take a look at Csargo voters. Dya was off-wagon, so even if she's a wolf, there probably was an early w voter on him. I would look for people who were either gunning against dya yeet or arbitrary in their approach to Csargo. Even with many of us having his blood on our hands, that lynch was an atrocity. This should give me a pool of people to work with for my vote today.



At first look Monty fits the bill, but I need to take a proper look at switches and such.

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DO that, I will have a look too. I will pretend you didn't sit on my slot while doing so.

I am liking Dya most recent posts a bit more (after the ATE/self vote phase).

gonna b going 2 sleep

First off dya's a bit of an odd slot for me rn

on one hand I didn't really dislike their interactions with me recently, and I think their takes are plausibly within v!dya range

This isn't clearing by any means but atm I think I'm at the point where I just want to leave them to their own devices and see what they come up with, I think if they're villagers they should be able to bounce back convincingly from this point on

The fact that 2 of my wolf reads in dya/gh are now pivoting to another one of my wolf reads in manti together(while GH is still on w!dya) makes for a pretty wacky picture to parse fmpov

but we'll see how it goes ig

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ColonelLubriderm

Maple

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Wait this isn't GH

gfdi

disregard my last line in the previous post

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

vote: Montmorency

exclusively for his comment on "what if they're both villagers what then huh" earlier today

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melding totally. I just didn't see the aim of this post (coming from town mindset I mean). He doesn't want to engage with the read, its logic, its root or potential weaknesses. Nope, just denying it (the read from Visor was GH/dya ww fwiw). Whats next lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pzelda

Yeah, I forgot it wasn't a tie in the end.
@Raskolnikov - ride or die with Maple I can't really explain. I guess it was an early feeling the slot was giving me. As you can see I'm not there anymore. @Esooa - My read on Eph is kinda lacking. Maybe it's because his posts are kinda bland. I think he looked great early on, but his contributions were more about agreeing with others than yours or Hally's. He was in touch with the thread, but not adding much of his own. GH picked this up and I had to agree with his take. It's something I'm still keeping an eye on. I don't see it as damning as GH does. I don't exactly know what to expect from Eph, but him following the thread instead of making his own solving keeps me wary.

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I am prolly going to ISO you and Cuth this evening or tmr morning, but can you pinpoint me at your progression on Manty? (I still haven't read the pages between around 20 and the moment I subbed in, and haven't ISO him yet)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ephemeral

Wait this isn't GH

gfdi

disregard my last line in the previous post

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jebaited

ops I think it forced me to post all of these MQ's instead of quoting more.

Hiiiiiii!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hally

dya, talk about your esooa push yesterDay? i find it kinda hard to believe that was a genuine read from you

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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ it came off as SO lhf-esque and opportunistic for something like.. kinda benign.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Visor

gh/dya w/w

change my mind.

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+1

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hally

gh, i feel like you’re playing dumb wrt dya and it reminds me of how you dismissed concerns about newcomb D1 of rocks inv

i really just don’t believe you can’t grasp why dya was wolfy D1 or why we’re concerned about them

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GH putting dya-blinders on makes sense in any world I'd reckon, but yeah it seems really weird that he was so.. pushy that they weren't scum yesterday when everyone else had little to nothing to work off of (coming from me I think that's pretty funny too!!)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dyachei

i seem to be a hot topic

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happens when ur outed i guess :smash:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

^^ Sunbae being the NK makes me think there is definatly one woof among these three.

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i didn't think much of the NK in general because Sunbae is perfection but I think Rask bringing this up is a good look for him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

Scum tell (re Echks; @Visor @Esooa @pzelda). GG Manasi

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GUYS THAT WAS A JOKE

I DIDN'TR EAD ANYTHING BEFORE THAT POST LOL

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Manasi

ops I think it forced me to post all of these MQ's instead of quoting more.

Hiiiiiii!!




^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ it came off as SO lhf-esque and opportunistic for something like.. kinda benign.



+1



GH putting dya-blinders on makes sense in any world I'd reckon, but yeah it seems really weird that he was so.. pushy that they weren't scum yesterday when everyone else had little to nothing to work off of (coming from me I think that's pretty funny too!!)


happens when ur outed i guess :smash:


i didn't think much of the NK in general because Sunbae is perfection but I think Rask bringing this up is a good look for him.


GUYS THAT WAS A JOKE

I DIDN'TR EAD ANYTHING BEFORE THAT POST LOL

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YOU'RE NOT LOW HANGING FRUIT

Also hi bop I didn't realize that was u

ugly :)



top villas are still something like visor/hally/ephemeral

less so rask but he's up there but someone (maybe hally?) posted that he probably shouldn't be healed unless he has a particularly cromulent claim

alas

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dyachei

YOU'RE NOT LOW HANGING FRUIT

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?? i was talking about your post about esooa brother

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dyachei

YOU'RE NOT LOW HANGING FRUIT

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were these caps deliberate?