Hurricane Harvey & Irma

The storm basically got stuck between two high pressure systems basically dumping trillions of gallons of water over these areas that are seeing major flooding, plus with a city like Houston the entire surrounding area has been developed extensively, like HopAlongBunny said, so all of that water didn't have anywhere to go and it started rising. When it was over Houston and my area it was a Tropical Storm I'm pretty sure, but it was moving so slowly that it just dumped massive amounts of rain. It dumped 26" in 24 hours over my area on Tuesday, and the previous few days there were heavy thunderstorms over that time period.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Relying on the most recent bad storm as a proof of global warming is a bit haphazard. Strong storms have been down of late overall despite the generally warmer average water temperature.

Besides, most of the GOP (aside from the loons) accept that Global Warming is a fact. Thermometers are rather bad liars. They dispute the anthropomorphic-centered thinking they hear referenced as THE source of this climate change. And it is hard to get at. You cannot type in a search for climate change without a bajillion political hits but few good research pieces that are accessible in full (and just hearing their conclusions is not enough to judge research quality of course).

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You're right about the one strom thing, but the anthropomorphic denial is just crazy, and of course it comes from the side that constantly talks about "personal responsibility" and "being the master of your destiny" etc. as long as it doesn't come to changing its pet habits or hurting the income of its pet billionaires...
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Pure coincidence that the burning of every fossil fuel we can find happened just when the curve went crazy I guess.

https://skepticalscience.com/empiric...al-warming.htm

It's just when you deny half the science that you can deny human impact. At some point of course, human impact becomes meaningless and the planet heats up further and further regardless of what we do. Maybe the plan is to deny our impact until it actually does become meaningless? Also funny that the same people tend to dislike refugees, wait until all the equatorial areas become uninhabitable...

Does anyone find it odd that Texas, the key player in the "small state" concept are asking for $120 BILLION in Federal aid? Where is the God and self achievement in this?

~:smoking:

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Originally Posted by rory_20_uk

Where is the God and self achievement in this?
~:smoking:

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It's different in this case...

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Originally Posted by rory_20_uk

Does anyone find it odd that Texas, the key player in the "small state" concept are asking for $120 BILLION in Federal aid? Where is the God and self achievement in this?

~:smoking:

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Both sides do that sort of crap, it is true.

Take flood insurance. Government underwrites most of it...thus encouraging people to rebuild homes that will be flooded in less than a generation. Market forces would force them to move when they were wiped out and not insured.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Take flood insurance. Government underwrites most of it...thus encouraging people to rebuild homes that will be flooded in less than a generation. Market forces would force them to move when they were wiped out and not insured.

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I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

The market is what has pushed settlement and development of all these vulnerable areas, cyclically. Which areas globally - land categorized as flood risk - probably support the life of the majority of the human population and cannot be abandoned. Heck, look at Florida.

We can't all live in Nebraska, and the government won't fund it either without a Titan or kaiju threat.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

The market is what has pushed settlement and development of all these vulnerable areas, cyclically. Which areas globally - land categorized as flood risk - probably support the life of the majority of the human population and cannot be abandoned. Heck, look at Florida.

We can't all live in Nebraska, and the government won't fund it either without a Titan or kaiju threat.

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Humans can build dwellings that can survive in outer space, on the moon and yes, even on flood plans. They've been doing so for thousands of years (often the trick is piles that rise above the flood water - of course these days doors and windows can be waterproofed and even one way valves can be fitted in waste pipes). The difference is that developers are greedy, government ineffective and customers ignorant / desperate that houses that are not fit for purpose get built.

~:smoking:

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

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A look at the "market" usually involves a very selective view.
The developers view: "people will buy these houses near the water; and at a very nice premium for the view and ambience"
Insurers: "Several times burned and honestly you can forget flood insurance if you build there"
Government: "Unforseen disasters shouldn't ruin people": becoming: "We will do what industry won't, to preserve jobs"

The market system subsidizes building in high risk areas; largely at the urging of the markets' biggest players.
What was Doonesburys' line : My country tis of thee; Sweet land of subsidy"

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-w...-epic-flooding

https://californiawaterblog.com/2017...-county-texas/

Maybe it's true.

With climate shifts, some urban concentrations have become unsustainable.

The new norm is the old one, destruction and renewal - and we aren't merely refurbishing log cabins anymore.

We don't have the money, or superseding money, we don't have the resources.

It can't be done. Not over and over.

So what can we do? The logical answer seems to be selective de-habitation and consolidation of populations. The only entity that can provision this for the public at all, let alone on a meaningful timescale, is the state. Population transfer is the oldest and most fundamental function of the state, but today these states will need new powers and insulated institutional incentives - and everything in attendance.

How many will die before we accede to empowering governments in selective sacrifice of citizens ? Will it be easier if we know subtextually who it is, who is going to be first overboard in almost any case?

But not all can be saved, and once we agree on that then there is no one else to entrust.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KhJOZBKhyM

Regulations for more safety currently blocked by the Trump administration. :2thumbsup:

Perhaps this is by design? As robots replace workers and unemployed workers get unhappy, why not let them slowly die off? Solves the unrest problems by distracting everyone, too.
Trump already said he wants to send people back to the coal mines, where they will work too hard to bother with politics in the evening and die early anyway. Maybe that explains all the Trump measures, they're meant to kill off poor/weak people who "aren't needed" anymore... Welcome to Sparta. :sweatdrop:

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

I think market fetishization here runs into incoherence.

The market is what has pushed settlement and development of all these vulnerable areas, cyclically. Which areas globally - land categorized as flood risk - probably support the life of the majority of the human population and cannot be abandoned. Heck, look at Florida.

We can't all live in Nebraska, and the government won't fund it either without a Titan or kaiju threat.

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I don't disagree. What is problematic for our republic is that, over the course of the 20th especially, the federal government has become the "guarantor of all things." Republics don't do that well, which trends towards some form of bureaucratic semi-autarchy.

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Originally Posted by Husar

Regulations for more safety currently blocked by the Trump administration. :2thumbsup:

Perhaps this is by design? As robots replace workers and unemployed workers get unhappy, why not let them slowly die off? Solves the unrest problems by distracting everyone, too.
Trump already said he wants to send people back to the coal mines, where they will work too hard to bother with politics in the evening and die early anyway. Maybe that explains all the Trump measures, they're meant to kill off poor/weak people who "aren't needed" anymore... Welcome to Sparta. :sweatdrop:

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Over-simplification much? No 'cradle to grave' protection from life = Sparta? I suppose we'll have to find Helots to murder to prove our worth then....

You went a little to swiftian with this response, Husar.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Over-simplification much? No 'cradle to grave' protection from life = Sparta? I suppose we'll have to find Helots to murder to prove our worth then....

You went a little to swiftian with this response, Husar.

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You're interpreting what I said wrong.

I meant they kill off the weak and losers on purpose. But since death squads and gas chambers are politically incorrect, they just risk more accidents and catastrophes and then pretend they couldn't save everyone. If they're really lucky, NK nukes the liberal West Coast. :sweatdrop:

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Relying on the most recent bad storm as a proof of global warming is a bit haphazard.

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I have been talking about examples across a decade, and Harvey is an example that just occur again. This is happening internationally as there are very evident changes in the landscape and local ecosystems. Even my grandmother went on a rant the other day about how the weather was never like it was when she was a little girl during the world war years which surprised me.

But 'head in sand' brigade won't be changing their tune regardless.

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Originally Posted by Beskar

I have been talking about examples across a decade, and Harvey is an example that just occur again. This is happening internationally as there are very evident changes in the landscape and local ecosystems. Even my grandmother went on a rant the other day about how the weather was never like it was when she was a little girl during the world war years which surprised me.

But 'head in sand' brigade won't be changing their tune regardless.

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My grandfather said a similar thing. He said that a river near our home used to get frozen during the winter when he was young.

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Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan

My grandfather said a similar thing. He said that a river near our home used to get frozen during the winter when he was young.

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Any number of examples like this have been noted. St. Lawrence used to freeze etc.

It is a certainty that the Earth has been warming. We have been part of a warming trend for some time following a classic interglaciation pattern. How much of the current spike is human-fostered v 'normal' heating might be arguable. Far more important is the consideration of how we will adapt to this warming trend, which is probably not at its peak (and which we may well be exacerbating as a majority of our scientists assert).

Next up: Florida?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hurrica...rida-1.4275126

Maybe, maybe not; Puerto Rico is certainly a likely target.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#irma
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...nd120#contents

Stay safe

The only good news is that Trump will not be stealing our tax money with a trip to Mar-a-lago this weekend. ~:rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by drone

The only good news is that Trump will not be stealing our tax money with a trip to Mar-a-lago this weekend. ~:rolleyes:

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We'll have to keep our eyes on any relief money and make sure no undue amounts are spent fixing his hard hit business.

Hurricane Irma is out to destroy almost everything in its warpath. :no:

We are at the peak of the season. Harvey drowned Eastern Texas. Irma has smacked the Antilles (we will find that most of the dead are Haitian as usual when the storm is past), will hammer the Turks, Caicos, and Bahamas, and then pound South Florida. Jose is tracking after Irma for round 2 for St. Maarten and the VI. Katia is whacking Vera Cruz.

Irma was a Cat 5 for 3 days. Almost unheard of.

My cousin lives in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. He bought a lot of snacks and water. He and his gf didn't evacuate yet for some reason. Maybe the traffic jam makes it pointless to evacuate. There seems to be a lot of people ignoring the evacuation announcement. And there are some reporters staying there. There are two major Air Force bases in Fort Walton Beach. They might be evacuating, too.

Sint Maarten is in a bad spot, it's all debris atm and infrastructure is badly damaged. The much weaker Jose might be a much bigger problem. Where is the Queen Mary when you need it, total evacuation is best

Now Hurricane Jose looks like it is going to hit category 5 (currently top-end 4) and follow in Irma's path.

Jeez, this is getting super serious this season. Katrina was the wake-up call in 2005, but this is the kick in the teeth. Worse time ever for USA to have such a irresponsible president on environment and climate change.

But I guess doing nothing, sticking head in sand, and constantly changing the goal posts from "don't exist" to "it might not be manmade" prevents any real action being done whilst people die and things deteriorate even further. How many more decades of excuses.

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Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan

My cousin lives in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. He bought a lot of snacks and water. He and his gf didn't evacuate yet for some reason. Maybe the traffic jam makes it pointless to evacuate. There seems to be a lot of people ignoring the evacuation announcement. And there are some reporters staying there. There are two major Air Force bases in Fort Walton Beach. They might be evacuating, too.

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FWB is well up in the panhandle area and the storm cannot reach that area until Monday. It will probably be a small 1 or a large TS by then. Unless they are on the barrier island itself, they are likely making the right choice.

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Originally Posted by Beskar

Now Hurricane Jose looks like it is going to hit category 5 (currently top-end 4) and follow in Irma's path.

Jeez, this is getting super serious this season. Katrina was the wake-up call in 2005, but this is the kick in the teeth. Worse time ever for USA to have such a irresponsible president on environment and climate change.

But I guess doing nothing, sticking head in sand, and constantly changing the goal posts from "don't exist" to "it might not be manmade" prevents any real action being done whilst people die and things deteriorate even further. How many more decades of excuses.

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This is rather exceptional, (global) conditions aren't any different than last year, and the year before that and that and that etc.

Hurricanes just suck you can do nothing about them

Three scenarios with somewhat different consequences:

East coast: hurricane travels up east coast, Miami takes a direct hit from wind and storm surge
Up the middle: winds basically devastate all of Florida but storm surge less pronounced on the E/W coast_dissipation as surge hits wetlands as well
West coast: Key West and Tampa take it on the chin; hurricane force winds over entire peninsula

http://www.thedailybeast.com/three-p...-them-are-good
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Irma

It now looks like the West coast scenario will be the case

My city is in the path of the hurricane, though it will likely only be a tropical storm when it reaches us. I know its awful to say this, but I really hope my university closes school on Monday since I have an exam that day.

:book:

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

FWB is well up in the panhandle area and the storm cannot reach that area until Monday. It will probably be a small 1 or a large TS by then. Unless they are on the barrier island itself, they are likely making the right choice.

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Thanks. Now I see why they didn't looked concerned when they took a selfie.