Hurricane Harvey & Irma

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My cousin lives in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. He bought a lot of snacks and water. He and his gf didn't evacuate yet for some reason. Maybe the traffic jam makes it pointless to evacuate. There seems to be a lot of people ignoring the evacuation announcement. And there are some reporters staying there. There are two major Air Force bases in Fort Walton Beach. They might be evacuating, too.

FWB is well up in the panhandle area and the storm cannot reach that area until Monday. It will probably be a small 1 or a large TS by then. Unless they are on the barrier island itself, they are likely making the right choice.

[Shaka_Khan]

FWB is well up in the panhandle area and the storm cannot reach that area until Monday. It will probably be a small 1 or a large TS by then. Unless they are on the barrier island itself, they are likely making the right choice.

Thanks. Now I see why they didn't looked concerned when they took a selfie.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The coverage is hyped to the extreme. Is it gonna suck for the Keys, yes. Will all of Florida sink? Not hardly. As it moves North up the peninsula it will lose strength. Here in Orlando we are expecting no worse than a large cat one level storm here. Bad, yes. But catastrophic 30 miles inland? Not hardly.

For those of you following from afar, check the sustained winds and the mb of pressure. Note the predictions for those as it advances. This will give you a more realistic feel for the problem then the hyperbolic coverage. A large TS/Cat one hurricane windblast is not much different in strength than the gust front of a good sized thunderstorm. It does last a lot longer, but unless you get caught in one of the infrequent tornadoes that spin off the storm, you are pretty well off.

[HopAlongBunny]

Update on expected storm surge:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/092121.shtml

Update on storm/path
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1...?cone#contents

[Fragony]

Keep safe, hammertime

[HopAlongBunny]

Oh it's on:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/its-off...-since-katrina

It looks and sounds bad. Storm surge where none was predicted and general mayhem everywhere.
Repeating a caution: even after the storm has seemed to have passed, stay out of evacuated areas until officials give "All Clear"

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The storm slipped west before landfall, losing some power to the Cuban Mountains but only a little. The eye passed just east of Key West, so it is likely that the storm's departure will show great damage throughout the Florida keys. Storm surge during the day was modest, a meter or so below feared levels in places like Miami. However, the communities on the SW edge are now getting hit with surge a meter higher than originally predicted as the reversed winds of the SW quadrant keep pushing water inland.

Currently Orlando area is experiencing heavy rain and Cat One winds. Lots of minor damage throughout the area. The worst of the winds will be past us around dawn.