And don't forget the Dutch bankers...Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyblades
Besides, Louis' bankruptcy was only partially on our behalf. He ended up fighting what some would argue as the first truly global conflict against England by intervening.
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And don't forget the Dutch bankers...Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyblades
Besides, Louis' bankruptcy was only partially on our behalf. He ended up fighting what some would argue as the first truly global conflict against England by intervening.
I take that back. Losing to Croatia? At home? This hurts me more than it hurts you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarmatian
Transferring your derision onto the one who is not responsible for what happened? + Bad call #2. Derailing the thread? After what has been specifically said by the powers-that-be?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarmatian
As for the loss:
Some people here claim that it was a cunning ruse: if Ukraine made it to the World Cup held in Russia it would face a dilemma - to play on the enemy's territory (which shouldn't be done in view of what has happened and is still happening) or to refuse to go and get FIFA's hackles up. So losing the game has removed all those doubts and frustrations in one sweep.
This just shows that Ukrainians and Russians are two completely different breeds. Russians, if the world cup were played on Ukrainian soil, would have seen this as an opportunity to invade foreign territory and smash up their cafes (cf. France 2016). Extra bragging points if they get the chance to confront the (in)famed English too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Not denying the first statement I would like to mention that the theory I offered was no more than a speculation which aims to justify the defeat. It would still be an awkward situation if Ukraine won, though. Something like Eurovision 2017.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Looks like Puigdemont didn't dare declar independence yet. After 20 minutes of teasing and a seeming intensification towards a declaration, he said he will delay any declaration because there wasn't enough dialogue yet in Catalonia and Spain and because the international community requested more dialogue.
So I guess they're not ready to go full frontal against Spain and don't quite see the international support that they would need to succeed.
Is that a first step towards a withdrawal without losing face? Actual request for more dialogue or really just a delay of an inevitable declatration of independence?
IMO the latter seems rather unlikely, it looks more as though they just didn't get anyone to back them but less than half the local population, so they can easily foresee a desaster if they unilaterally try anything. An internationally observed dialogue with Madrid however, may give them a chance to get more independence as they may have more sympathies for that now given that the world saw Spanish policemen beat Catalans. Of course they had to find some reason to not declare independence as per their own law/promise...
A successful negotiation about the region's rights would seem to be the best outcome to me and outside of whining about taxes (which was also in the speech) I think it's only fair for Spain to respect their local traditions etc.
Spanish government demands Catalonia leader clarify independence declaration
I think I'd explain it to Rajoy this way - if you wake up after spending the night with a girl for the first time, and you have to ask her are you a still virgin, you probably are.
In this case, it's the other way around - if you have to ask whether they declared independence, they probably didn't.
On a serious note, nice move by Rajoy. Catalan government can say "yes", Spain invokes article 155 of the constitution, Catalan government gets disbanded and leaders arrested. If they say "no", the matter is settled and Catalan leaders kiss their political careers goodbye. Their best bet at this moment is to stay silent and ask for a dialogue, hoping that Madrid will give them a face-saving way out of this mess.
I'm not sure Madrid will be that accommodating.
A possible solution?
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...onia-s-problem
I suspect that something along those lines is exactly what Spain/Catalonia will end up with. But it will have to be done "second track" as the official players are now trapped by their own public stances.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1CP0SB
Wouldn't it sway those Catalonians who are still in doubt to swell the independence camp?
Somewhere I read that the secessionists only gained more seats in the Catalan government because the weird electoral system gave them more seats despite not getting a corresponding popular vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...election,_2015Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
When I take the 135 seats and multiply it with 0.396 for the 39.6% they (JxSi) got of the popular vote, I get 53.46 seats, and yet they somehow have 62 seats. It might be explained due to parties falling below the minimum threshold, but then again that should lead to all parties having more seats than their share of the vote, yet the CUP should have 135 x 0.082 = 11.07 seats and has effectively only 10.
I'm not aware of their policies and coalitions, but it would seem quite weird for a party that is strongly overrepresented in parliament to take a very flawed referendum and make a very important choice based on that, claiming to represent the will of the people. As I said before, a secession would seem even vastly more important than a constitutional change, and should not be declared lightly. A lot of countries make constitutional changes very hard, why not decisions that potentially affect the country even more?
It can be explained by the mixed electoral system. Some candidates are party members but they are elected as individuals in the majority constituencies. At least it is so in Ukraine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Husar
I think it was like that in Germany, but the constitutional court didn't like that and said it makes the second vote useless in many cases. The fix for now seems to be that they just add members to the parliament until the proportional representation as given by the second party vote is fulfilled. And since the CDU apparently got a whole lot of first votes in the last election, out parliament will become very bloated now. Still better than not having the proportional representation though IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Spanish government plans to remove Catalonian government, schedule new elections, and in the meantime implement direct rule by Madrid.
Hundreds of thousands march for - well, if not for independence, then at least against Madrid's proposed corrective measures.
And who knows how thin is the line between "against corrective mesures" and "for independence".Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...emove-catalan/
An irrevocable step?
*insert facepalm*
Now I actually agree that the Spanish government should have talked to them after they didn't declare independence the other time.
Trying to take over anyway was the escalating step now it seems. As to what will happen, I guess we'll see who has more soft-power or whether it will escalate to violence. :shrug:
Catalonia has now declared full independence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41780116
Does any one have a link to a translation of their declaration? Media accounts all gloss things over and head straight to the "potential conflict" elements because that is the bent of journalism. Have the Catalans made such a declaration aside from publishing the results of a vote?Quote:
Originally Posted by Second Continental Congress
Many people in Catalonia don't want their EU-share of blacks and arabs.
I understand them.
Yeah, this is why the nationalists insist that Catalonia will be admitted in the EU even after the independence. They are displeased at the taxes they pay, not the imaginary Islamic threat.
Except that 50% of the taxes they get to keep, which is reasonable when you consider Spain controls the borders, the armed forces etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
Removal of the Catalan Government after they signed a declaration of Independence was pretty much inevitable, especially after they refused to confirm if they had or hadn't actually done it.
Likewise, the Parliament was going to go after they went Secessionist.
With the majority of the pro-Independence leadership in prison it's likely the nationalists will not get a majority in the election in December, so unless the Catalans resort to armed insurrection (unlikely given they have nice comfortable lives) this will blow over in a few years. It might resurface in a generation, though.
Puigdemont doesn't recognize his dismissal by Madrid. And? How will he insist on keeping his job? Lock himself in the office? I don't believe it is possible by non-violent ways.
Since Spain has already used force (though not outright warfare), I suspect you are likely correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Declaring your independence, of itself, does not require the extent government to agree to it.
Spanish foreign minister admits Catalonia's autonomy may be widened. Madrid is ready to step back?
AFTER taking such a hard line during the 'illegal plebiscite?" That kind of backtracking will only encourage those leaning die-hard to harden their position. Now, if they had done that BEFORE the plebiscite, very quietly, then that would have made for a very different result.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41811649
Puigdemont is already in Belgium and the Catalan parliament accepted its dissolvment. A couple of days after they solemnly promulgated independece! The Catalan leaders have no ability to foresee the consequences of what they do and have no guts to see it through. A pathetic fizzling out of what has started with such a pomp.
Pomp is easy. But the currency for independency is a steep risk "...our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor." If you are not willing to risk the loss, don't play the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
They started the game but evidently are not ready to run the risk of losing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
20th December La Liga is where the real showdown will begin.
Maybe they have more guts than you might think, in understanding that they failed and there's no hope for success. Insisting on stubborn resistance is often just about saving face (and sometimes political careers) of the high ups while the people are worse off.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Fair point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarmatian
Then they have no wits. One doesn't have to be Nobel prize winner to figure out how Madrid would have reacted. Did they know it? If yes and still went on with independence and after that backed out they have no guts. If no - they are plain stupid. Either conclusion doesn't reflect a great credit upon current Catalan leaders.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarmatian
Have to agree there. Having talked over the issue with Madrid quietly -- and I assume at least a few 'deniable' emissaries did so -- and having thereby learned that there was no groundswell of support for secession, they should have known right then that it was a choice of 'lives, fortune, sacred honor' [call out the militia and fight for freedom as needed] or time to shut up and leave things be [inglorious, but their current lives aren't notably horrific].Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
I have to agree here that the Catalan leaders did not cover themselves with laurels here.
You may be right, but that still makes them bad leaders.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarmatian
It will be interesting to see if the former Catalan President returns to face the music, having seriously harmed his "country."
"Groundswell support" may be also ambiguous. It depends on what the groundswell is ready for - to get together, wave flags and go home after that or stay on the square and put up resistance in case they are pressed into submission.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
I meant support for the idea from Madrid, and was being a touch whimsical in word choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
There was enough in Catalonia itself, over 40% of the population favoring independence. That was a higher percentage than existed in British Colonial America in 1775.
Again, "favoring" and "ready to put up a fight for it" make a difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
And back to the topic: Catalan authorities mostly accepted the idea of new parliamentary elections in December. If the separatist forces get the majority again LEGALLY wouldn't it mean that the Catalans' mind is still set on secession? And wouldn't it become a signal for Madrid to start talking to them?
An update: some young Catalans are evidently ready to continue the struggle: https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/anim...ers/vp-AAuoHjA
Indeed, all the difference in the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Puigemont has been arrested in Brussel supposedly. Thia is going to be (even more) interesting, no matter your stance as everybody has a point
Trial of the century coming up, he can face 30 year
He should face trial. He led a rebellion against his lawful government. I assume EU practices make extradition rather simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony
Though his defense should be to refuse to acknowledge that a Spanish court has a right to try a Catalan for anything that did not occur in Spain.
Of course he must be trialed, please do. Legally it's pretty straightforward it are the existional that will be raised that are interesting, there are many layers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/21/eu...ntl/index.html
So, evidently, the Spanish government's plan to change Catalan authorities by means of elections didn't work. The stalemate will persist?
This has the potential to get somewhat ugly, that I know at least
Pro-independency factions retook control of their local assembly by a 70-65 margin. That 70, however, is comprised of three different pro-separatist parties each of whom does NOT share all major points of policy with it's fellow travelers. Clearly Spain's move to squelch the separatism with an early vote did not work. This vote is hardly a sign that Catalans are likely to go to the barricades to achieve that separation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir