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also a little problematic to describe poland as 'disarmed', given that it has four operational divisions right now, at least three of which are mechanised.
while france, germany and UK each field circa 200 tanks, poland has the best part of a thousand, which by 2030 will likely be composed to M1A3 and K2-PL.
Eurovision Song Contest?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooahguy
This is why you gotsta have the expertise:
Quote:
Yes. If Russia does what Russia has visibly prepared to do (but which it may not do!) then there will be refugees, retreating Ukrainian troops, questions about borders, and general disruption of life across the region.Quote:
nobody remembers that the 82nd Airborne is also pretty good at embassy evacuation, expat evacuation, HA/DR and even refugee management. All things folks near this mess might need/appreciate.
I've made the point before that the crisis will have deterrence, Mitigation, and Punishment components. The deployment of [NATO] troops is less important to Deterrence and even Punishment than it is to Mitigation.
EU’s chip production plan aims to ease dependency on Asia
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden...85beb93d04e8cf
With the US and EU both looking to relocate 'strategic' manufacturing to their own shores to reduce dependency (on chips so far and perhaps rare minerals too) I wonder if we'll see that push in other industries as well such as the EUs fuel imports. Can only hope that future energy sources like fusion can become realized sooner than later as burning various forms of hydrocarbons and the inability to store 'green' energy in the quantities needed hurt economically not to mention the environment too.Quote:
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union announced a $48 billion plan Tuesday to become a major semiconductor producer, seeking to curb its dependency on Asian markets for the component that powers everything from cars to hospital ventilators and game consoles.
At a time when natural gas shortages and Europe’s reliance on Russia for energy shows the political risks of economic dependency, the 27-nation bloc is moving to boost its economic independence in the critical semiconductor sector with its Chips Act.
“Chips are at the center of the global technological race. They are, of course, also the bedrock of our modern economies,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. The plan still needs the backing of the EU parliament and the member states.
The EU move mirrors U.S. President Joe Biden’s $52 billion push to invest in a national chip-producing sector to make sure more production occurs in the United States.
As the economy has bounced back from the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year, there has been a supply chain bottleneck for semiconductors. In Europe, some consumers have had to wait up to almost a year to get a car because of a lack of spare parts.
“The pandemic has also painfully exposed the vulnerability of its supply chains,” von der Leyen said. “We have seen that whole production lines came to a standstill.”
“While the demand was increasing, we could not deliver as needed because of the lack of chips,” she added. As a result, factory belt lines ground to a halt, some factories had to temporarily close and workers were left unemployed because of lack of electronic parts.
Semiconductors are the tiny microchips that act as the brains for everything from smartphones to cars, and an extended shortage has highlighted the importance of chipmakers, most of which are based in Asia, to global supply chains.
Von der Leyen said Europe’s Chips Act will link research, design and testing and coordinate EU and national investment. The 43 billion euro plan pools public and private funds and allows for state aid to get the massive investments off the ground.
The prospect of massive industrial subsidies at first seems like a blast from Europe’s past, when overreaching state involvement stifled creativity and kept ambitious newcomers out of the market. The EU itself has been trying to undo this over the past decades with rigorous vetting whether state aid was not impeding competition.
The EU Commission promised that every Chips Act project will be carefully vetted on anticompetitive grounds, but that the sheer size of setting up production facilities demand a push if the bloc is to become a global player.
“Europe needs advanced production facilities, which come, of course, with a huge upfront cost. We are therefore adapting our state aid rules,” said von der Leyen.
Now, EU nations only have 9% of the global market share of semiconductors, and von der Leyen wants to increase that to 20% by 2030. Because global market production is expected to about double over the same time, “it means basically quadrupling our efforts,” she said.
She said the plan will add 15 billion euros ($17 billion) in public and private investment on top of funds already committed in the EU’s budget.
The EU also wants to get involved in chip production for geopolitical reasons and become more resilient in its strategic independence. Still, von der Leyen did hold out her hand for cooperation.
“Europe will build partnerships on chips with like-minded partners, for example, the United States or, for example, Japan,” she said.
The COVID crisis and subsequent supply chain hits have certainly put cracks into the global trade system we've all relied upon for 30 years or so. One ship blocking the suez for several weeks had huge effects on European supply chains, the increasing tensions and risk of war in multiple parts of the global makes for few 'safe' manufacturing hubs for importing key components.
I'd look to recycle as much material for high-tech products as possible. Something that isn't reflected in the raw numbers of pure capitalism.Quote:
Originally Posted by spmetla
Britain's foreign secretary goes to meet her Russian counterparts to re-emphasise Britain's hard line on Ukraine. Russian diplomat asks her whether Britain recognises Russia's sovereignty over Rostov and Vornoezh oblasts. Liz Truss states that Britain will never back down over Ukraine. Russian diplomat points out they're not in Ukraine (Rostov and Voronezh are in Russia).
He probably twigged her level after she talked about our Baltic allies coming over the Black Sea.
At one level, talking is better than fighting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Why Russia would care what our tiny armed forces might do it almost funny. Germany should be taking the lead and since they're not the USA seems to be content to spend money the Europeans would rather not.
~:smoking:
Just because talking is better than fighting doesn't mean our foreign secretary has to be as idiotic and ignorant as she is though. I'm not a professional diplomat, and even I know that the Black Sea is nowhere near the Baltics. The Russian diplomat also noted that there was no negotiation or even discussion going on, but only Truss passing slogans at him as though they were supposed to achieve something. I'm not sure if that counts as talking. I suppose the Tories have been used to Brexit diplomacy, being there in person but actually passing the message for the benefit of the audience at home, that they've forgotten that diplomacy is supposed to engage with the person you're talking to, not the papers back home.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Of course she's an ignorant idiot. For a minister to not be would be noteworthy.
There is nothing the UK can offer nor threaten that Russia needs or wants. It is purely something to distract the papers from what the PM does.
~:smoking:
hmmm, i prefer these views:Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1491868196714029058
https://twitter.com/DanielKorski/sta...96846150242322Quote:
What Lavrov did to Truss in Moscow is as boorish as if Johnson had spent an hour abusing Von Der Leyen over Northern Ireland and then deliberately played a trick on her about which Ulster counties are in the UK names and leaked it. Tyrone and Fermanagh? Or Monaghan and Cavan?
and this one:Quote:
I’m not sure I get all the hot takes on the Truss/Lavrov meeting. It looks to me like the British Foreign Secretary was clear, denounced Russia’s illegal behaviour, defended the freedom of European states and that the Russian foreign minister, true to form, was rude and bullying
https://twitter.com/john_ritzema/sta...52868256354306
Quote:
sorry, but FBPE twitter getting excited about Sergei Lavrov being thuggishly rude to Liz Truss is just a golden example of people continuing to beclown themselves because of brexit
And you've brought FBPE into it. I referred to "Brexit diplomacy" earlier to describe the behaviour of supposedly being on a diplomatic engagement but where the messaging is aimed at the papers and media back home rather than with the person in front of you. You've presumably taken that as free rein to go full on linking the discussion with Brexit,Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
See rory, this is the kind of behaviour I've been talking about. Everything the Tories do is excused, because they are getting Brexit done, with Brexit being an identity to be defended rather than a policy to be enacted.
OTOH, Putin met personally with Macron over at least 5 hours. A head of government's time is rarely valueless, so there's probably something to it.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Bruh your minister told a foreign government that the UK will never recognize Russian sovereignty over provinces whose Russian sovereignty has not been questioned. The haste and intemperacy of the minister is on display, even if the gaffe doesn't have wider diplomatic implications. There's only three Eastern European names any official really needs to know: Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
Quote:
The British Foreign Secretary told the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry about the need to withdraw Russian armed forces from the Ukrainian border. Sergei Lavrov replied that the military is on the territory of his country. Liz Truss repeated that they should be withdrawn. To this, the Russian minister again objected that the military is not violating anything, since they have the right to conduct any maneuvers on the territory of the Russian Federation.
After that, he himself addressed a question to his British colleague: “Do you recognize the sovereignty of Russia over the Rostov and Voronezh regions?”
“Great Britain will never recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions,” the Foreign Minister replied after a short pause.
British Ambassador to the Russian Federation Deborah Bonnert had to intervene in the situation, who delicately explained to Mrs. Truss that we were really talking about Russian regions.
Nonsense, your own quote shows it:
Truss - The British Foreign Secretary told the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry about the need to withdraw Russian armed forces from the Ukrainian border.
[talking about little green men in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea]
Lavrov - Sergei Lavrov replied that the military is on the territory of his country.
[pretending there aren't any little green men in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea]
Truss - Liz Truss repeated that they should be withdrawn.
[still talking about little green men in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea]
Lavrov - To this, the Russian minister again objected that the military is not violating anything, since they have the right to conduct any maneuvers on the territory of the Russian Federation.
[attempting to shift the conversation as if we have all accepted "that [all] the military is on the territory of his country."]
Lavrov - After that, he himself addressed a question to his British colleague: “Do you recognize the sovereignty of Russia over the Rostov and Voronezh regions?”
[pretending that we have all accepted that russia's military isn't sitting inside others peoples borders, asks: why do you object if our military is inside our border?]
Truss - “Great Britain will never recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions,” the Foreign Minister replied after a short pause.
[refusing to accept the premise - continues with the understanding we all share: that there are little green men in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea]
No. I think i prefer the quoted tweets above, thank you.
the first two were the substantial points, from serious FP/IR pov.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
the third was more of a bit of gentle fun for those who choose to beclown themselves by making everything about brexit (which was why i referred to it separately).
something you have accused me of, no? :clown:
That's what you wish she had done, but she wasn't thoughtful enough to detect/reject the red herring.Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
'Comment on the rightful ownership of Alaska.'
'Alaska belongs to Ukraine!'
or
'A lasker? Wozzat? No to Russian military buildup in annexed territories.'
Throughout the rising tensions President Zelensky has tried to keep life in Ukraine going, though some Western administrations have taken alarmed/alarmist postures since the start of winter. Ukraine's been on Level 4 travel advisory for a while now (though so have many other countries, due to Covid, so it's hard to tell.) In late January the State Department ordered embassy family members in Ukraine to leave, and recommended voluntary departure of staff, offering repatriation loans. Similar to Afghanistan at the beginning of summer 2021. Now, as in Afghanistan early last August, the US is issuing a blunt outright call for American nationals to leave the country; other countries are as well, including the UK, Norway, and South Korea. Such a disruptive move levied at a sovereign partner hopefully isn't being taken lightly, as some sort of bluff by Western powers. If there is a war, I hope @Gilrandir can take the time to delurk at some point to let us know if he's OK.
The fact that the UK diplomat intervened to explain that Rostov and Voronezh were in Russia shows the error that Truss had made, no matter how Furunculus tries to spin it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
You guys are lucky. At least you've got rid of your Russian flunkies. Ours are still in charge.
Russia’s military build-up enters a more dangerous phase
New satellite images show troops and equipment massing ever-closer to Ukraine
https://www.economist.com/interactiv...angerous-phase
Looks like all the open-source indicators are showing an invasion likely happening the middle of next week. I see that the US has sent B-52s to aid in deterrence, nuke 'sniffing' aircraft, and now another 3000 paratroopers from 82nd Airborne to Poland.Quote:
.....Around 100 Russian battalion tactical groups—fighting formations of 1,000 or so troops, accompanied by air defence, artillery and logistics—have gathered on Ukraine’s borders with Russia and Belarus. The build-up has entered a new phase. Russian units are heading from large bases into staging areas near the border. Troops are moving to link up with their equipment. Vital enablers for war, like field hospitals and engineering units, are being put into place. All of this is visible. America and its nato allies scrutinise Russia’s mobilisation using spy satellites, surveillance flights and other means of gathering intelligence.
..........taken together, these satellite images show that Ukraine is now ringed by Russian forces to its north, east and south. That gives the Kremlin options: a thrust into the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to support Russian proxies there; a deeper attack along Ukraine’s southern coast all the way to the Dnieper river; punitive raids against Ukraine’s armed forces—or even a drive all the way to Kyiv. On February 11th America urged its citizens to leave the city within 48 hours. As Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, noted on the same day: “We're in a window when an invasion could begin at any time.”
I can only hope that this is some gigantic bluff but from what I think of Putin this is the real deal, he'll certainly cement himself into Russian history.
If it does happen I do wonder how far he will go. Given the economic repercussions that will happen I can imagine that he's just gonna go all out and puppet/annex 'Novo-russiya' and puppet Ukraine sorta like the union status that Belarus has with Russia.
How can 'ours' be described as Russian flunkies?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Who are they and what have they done that is flunkey'ish?
Even her fellow Tories have noted the volume of content on her Instagram, surmising that her reading of her office of foreign affairs is to use it as a platform to campaign for the office of prime minister, rather than to do the job that it's supposed to involve. I suppose it's hard to blame her, since her predecessor has shown how that can be done. Either way, she's not in the Ukraine to engage with the Russians, she's in the Ukraine to engage with the Tory members.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Interesting twist with the UK being suggested to head a european security council:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...-new-security/
Such points were being made in Yes Prime Minister 50 years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Assuming the head of the organisation has some (relatively speaking) military might it was either the UK or France. And France has the latest toy of head of the EU, Boris might like to have something new to posture on to help with headlines with his Base.Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
~:smoking:
Con PM Tugendhat, surprisingly for his background, repeats the excellent point that the most effective way to resist Russia available to the West would be to crack down on internal and exported corruption.
More contentious is his estimation that "He’s trying to keep the pot simmering to keep the pressure on us and expose our divisions. He knows he could walk away now and lie about his great victory at home - the number of foreigners who have been to Moscow show he’s the main man - or he could see what else he can get."
I don't know, maybe, but it's hard for me to see what Putin can spin as a win if he cuts bait now. An American/EU promise to veto Ukrainian NATO/EU hopes in exchange for observable demobilization in the east (Crimea is a lost cause) is certainly a compromise that I hope our governments have sounded out for what it's worth. But if it were that simple wouldn't the deal have been finalized and publicized long ago? If he just returns troops home following the conclusion to the scheduled exercise with Belarus, what exactly does he tell the public in closing?
Related: Putin messaging openness to more diplomacy.
Aaron Banks, one of the biggest backers of the Brexit campaign, was a bankrupt. Yet he was able to back the Leave campaign with umpteen million pounds. Entirely unrelated to this, of course, was the fact that he has close associates who made their money in Russia, dealing with Putin and oligarchs. We know this is unrelated because Banks has launched various lawsuits against anyone who's had the audacity to suggest that the Russian were backing Brexit via Banks. AFAIK he's not actually won any of these lawsuits, and the last hearing he was due to attend, he didn't attend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Something that we wouldn't have seen during the Cold War, is the Russians friends our PM, one of the leading figures of Brexit, has, including the owner of one of the capital's main newspapers. Nor would we have seen our now PM take time out from his political career to play a game of tennis with the wife of one of Putin's friends. That got him over 150k I think, which was quite lucrative for one tennis match. Dash the thought that the money wasn't for the tennis match, but for talks on political favours accompanying the meeting.
Also see the Russia Report, the UK security committee's investigation of the Brexit campaign, which said that the UK government did not find any Russian interference because it refused to look for it.
Brexit has been one of Russia's most cost-effective political campaigns ever, in how much damage it has done to one of its major competitors, at a trifling cost. Most of the work was done by the natives themselves, with just a few operatives needing payment.
all this dirty money doesn't seem to have had much affect in weakening UK push-back against Russian aggression?
to the extent this can be judged it is relative to our european neighbours, and they look much more wobbly-knee'd that than the UK (with the honorable exceptions of the eastern baltic states).
i love the idea that russia bought brexit. makes me want to invest in tinfoil futures.
----------------------
separately - the always excellent lindley-french:
https://lindleyfrench.blogspot.com/2...of-munich.html
A threat of cutting off money before anything has happened would not only mean there's no threat, but also would tell the rest of the world the UK could do this again when not happy. If Russia had attacked and the UK had impounded / suspended / taken the money then at least there would have been some causus belli - like what the USA did to Germany in WW1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
Our "push back" was some words, withdrawing troops last weekend and the only thing NATO has unanimously said is that there will be no help for non-NATO members.
Compared to Germany almost soiling its britches and France sucking up then yeah - the UK is leading the field in European in pseudo-action.
~:smoking:
UK input was 2000 Anti Tank Guided missiles and a trilateral agreement with Poland and Ukraine.
Germany provided 5000 helmets, and prevented Lithuania transferring some military-aid artillery pieces on to Ukraine.
Does it mean it's ok for our politicians to take Russian money then? Corbyn got flak for taking the Russians' side over Salisbury, deservedly. Why does the other side taking hostile money get excuses made for them?Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
Personally, I'm suspicious of influence from various countries in whom I have little faith that they have good intentions for the UK. Russia and China prime amongst them.
We should investigate Russian influence in our politics, and publicise how individuals in government have Russian links. Supposed military action is open and can be easily verified. I want as little Russian influence in our politics as possible. If we are to admit them as a legit influence, they should at least be in the open.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
That MPs in general and lobbying in particular requires oversight by either MI5 or Special Branch is beyond question.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
The issue is broader than just Russians buying influence.
~:smoking:
At no point did i suggest it was.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Your premise is that UK is bought and paid for by the Russian state, my response is that there is no sign that Russia is getting any foriegn policy input for that money.
And this is the difference here; Corbyn (then) Germany (today) seem to be taking the wrong side, but there is no evidence that is true of the UK today.
I agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
I'm ok with that. The problem, the Commons committee (I think it's Commons) found, is that the security services have been actively looking away from investigating them. And more recently we see that the Met had been overlooking lawbreaking in Downing Street until public opinion (and I suspect timing) made it expedient to investigate. The people who are supposed to enforce the rules and protect the country have been looking aside to allow the government free rein. And most of the right media have been aiding this by spinning explanations and excuses for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Something that we can start with in this current Parliament is requiring ministers, including the PM, to answer the questions being asked, and imposing substantial sanctions against anyone found to have misled the House. Maybe the Chief Liar will have to man up or get out then.
that trilateral gets official today:Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/j...-february-2022
What it looks like:
https://twitter.com/ConGeostrategy/s...36288027070472
Genocide and all sorts of 2014-throwback propaganda.
Hm, seems any Russian diplomatic/de-escalation feint has now concluded and we're in the casus bellus stage. If he has indeed just been drawing this dialogue out under false pretenses, does Putin seriously not realize that he's only pissing off the third parties even more? If he invades, he'll probably receive stiffer resistance and a harsher EU/US penalty than he would have if he had arranged a blitz offensive at the end of last year.
The US government's information war spoiler strategy has been interesting.
Reminder that this live map exists.
February 19 will be the 79th anniversary of von Manstein's armored counterattack toward Kharkov, in NE Ukraine.
Some of many articles and bits of information:
https://i.imgur.com/1EW03kT.png
https://i.imgur.com/xCcLWBk.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/RR65rOj.gif
Yup, having been following what TASS has been putting out the last few days there is certainly the effort to make it look like the Ukraine is just being unfair to the separatists and unwilling to talk about Minsk 2 negotiations or abide by Minsk 1.Quote:
Genocide and all sorts of 2014-throwback propaganda.
Hm, seems any Russian diplomatic/de-escalation feint has now concluded and we're in the casus bellus stage. If he has indeed just been drawing this dialogue out under false pretenses, does Putin seriously not realize that he's only pissing off the third parties even more? If he invades, he'll probably receive stiffer resistance and a harsher EU/US penalty than he would have if he had arranged a blitz offensive at the end of last year.
The US government's information war spoiler strategy has been interesting.
Reminder that this live map exists.
February 19 will be the 79th anniversary of von Manstein's armored counterattack toward Kharkov, in NE Ukraine.
Some of many articles and bits of information:
Also that pontoon bridge is quite the development if true. Guess a radiological fallout zone is a weaknesss in defense as who would you station there if you were the Ukraine.
https://tass.com/politics/1405525
The USG's spoiler strategy is interesting for sure. Was talking with a friend this week about how our declaring that Wednesday would be the invasion was almost a sure way to delay it as there's no way the Russians would want to make it look like Western intelligence was right even if the info was correct down to the minute of the attack. Also, there's the factor that a crying wolf effect might happen if the Russians drag out the threat leading to NATO/EU disunity and then renewed opportunity for an attack.Quote:
The plan for a peace settlement in Donbass relies on the Minsk agreements, achieved in February 2015. Among other things they envisage ceasefire, pullback of weapons, amnesty, resumption of economic relations and a flexible constitutional reform in Ukraine. The authorities in Kiev have repeatedly professed their readiness to act on these agreements, but in fact have ignored them for many years. In particular, Kiev refuses to have a direct dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk and objects to granting Donbass a special status. Also, it procrastinates on the negotiations in the Contact Group.
My buddy also thinks that part of getting overt Chinese support was likely a promise to not completely distract from their Winter Games events and hold off until afterward.
I'm actually pleased to see the aggressive information campaign as I think too often in the past the US and NATO have just assumed that they were so in the 'right' that there was no need to push information to dominate the airwaves and discussion.
Yup, I think the policy of pushing out tons of information has worked fairly well and kept the narrative in the West's court, with Russia trying to reclaim the narrative a couple times with feigned withdrawal stories over the past week (which has largely failed). My thinking is that there was solid intel that the 16th would be the day of invasion, but when the word got out the Russians changed their plans to not give western intel credibility, as you said. But with today's evacuations, bombings, and artillery bombardments, I think we are on the brink of invasion. I would be shocked if Russia doesnt do anything by the 20th.Quote:
Originally Posted by spmetla
Cool article on some of the technology behind contemporary OSINT. And we've all been seeing those commercial satellite ~1km snapshots of military formations from Maxar and the like, so clear and crisp. The great powers must enjoy the sensitivity to capture such resolutions down to a few meters.
I noticed this older social media clip of Russian movements, featuring some armor. I'm unsure whether the music was added over the clip in editing, or if it was a diegetic soundtrack from the car's sound system. Either way, I refuse to believe that it was playing by coincidence. The song is a rock cover of the famous Soviet march, "Three Tankmen."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnITVgRY4ZU
Damn Russian trolls.Quote:
On the border the clouds go gloomy
On the frontier a harsh silence is embraced
On the high banks of the Amur River
The motherland's guard stands.
There, a solid barrier has been set up for the enemy
There it stands, brave and strong
At the borders of the Far East:
The armored strike battalion.
They live there - and the song is the guarantee -
An indestructible, strong family
Three tankers - three cheerful friends
The crew of a combat vehicle.
Thick dew fell on the grass
Fogs fell upon the taiga
That night the samurai decided to
Cross the border by the river.
But the reconnaissance reported accurately
And it went, swept by the command
In the native land of the Far East:
The armored strike battalion.
The tanks dashed, raising the wind
Formidable armor advanced
And the samurai flew to the ground
Under the force of steel and fire
And it finished off - the song is the guarantee -
All enemies in the fiery attack
Three tankmen - three cheerful friends
The crew of the combat vehicle!
China Seeks to Protect Ties With the U.S
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...edgdhp&pc=U531
It would be interesting to see how China can walk the line between Russia and the US/EU economic benefits. I think it was hoping that the US/NATO and EU would prove to have more disunity in response to Russia's build up. A more united 'West' that acts as a bloc makes it much more difficult for the PRC to play off individual countries against each other as its overreaction to a Taiwan embassy in Lithuania has proved in regard to EU relations.Quote:
Behind the Beijing-Moscow joint stance against NATO enlargement is Mr. Xi’s eagerness to show solidarity with Mr. Putin as both countries’ ties with the U.S. have soured, according to people with knowledge of Beijing’s thinking. Just as Russia is worried about threats to its security from any NATO expansion, one of the people said, China is concerned about “its territorial integrity as a result of the U.S. meddling in Taiwan.”
“They feel like they’re in the same boat,” the person added. Beijing sees Taiwan as Chinese territory and bringing the self-governing island into its fold as part of Mr. Xi’s “China Dream” of national revival.
However, China’s leadership appeared to have underestimated the reaction to the Feb. 4 statement from the rest of the world.
Many in Washington and Brussels saw the entente as one of the clearest signals yet that Beijing intends to join forces with Moscow to reshape the global order closer to their two countries’ authoritarian vision. That, on top of Beijing’s coercive behavior toward countries from Australia to Lithuania and increased military activities near the Taiwan Strait, has offered more support for President Biden’s effort to work with allies to guard against China.
While tilting closer to Moscow, the Chinese leadership still sees it in its interest not to have the bottom fallout of its ties with the U.S. It needs continued access to American financial and technological resources to ensure economic security and development—an access that could be jeopardized should Beijing decide to help Moscow evade sanctions in the event of an invasion.
“China recognizes its relationship with the U.S. is contentious and competitive,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank. “But they don’t want to be pushed into the Russian camp.”
Getting the EU nations, especially Germany, to consider not having access to Russian gas yet remain committed in their opposition to Russia is undoubtedly recalibrating the PRC's measure of 'Western' resolve versus the easy out of maintaining economic ties and only enacting symbolic sanctions.
There's also the side that the PRC, like the rest of the gas importing world does not want to see fuel prices go up suddenly given the fragile economic climate worldwide.
EDIT:
Putin confirms he will recognise breakaway Ukraine regions
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795
I guess it goes up a notch, only annexation await at some point in the future for these two regions.Quote:
Putin has finished speaking now, and after a long address, in which he said Ukraine had no history of being a true nation, and accused - without evidence - the Ukrainian authorities of corruption, he confirmed he would recognise the independence of two breakaway regions
He's signed the documents and asked the Russian parliament to ratify the decision as soon as possible.
He finished his speech by saying “I’m sure I’ll have the support of the Russian people. Thank you.”
So what's the next step? Say that Kiev is attacking sovereign nations under Russia's protection and that a security corridor must be established?
Russia recognises as a country people clamouring for assistance and provides assistance and installs a pliant leader.
USA: "Oi! That's OUR thing!"
A massive part of East Ukraine the people mainly speak Russian, are pro-Russian and in many cases want to be part of Russia.
Now, in the Good Old Days this issue would have been solved by deporting everyone which isn't happy or is ethnically different out of the country, such as in newly formed Poland or Kalingrad.
But back on topic, Russia manages to up the ante just a bit more by taking two areas of nigh on worthless land leading to widespread condemnation, demands for withdrawal and promises that no troops will be sent.
~:smoking:
I understand and if this was done peacefully would be on board with their going independent and eventually annexed by Russia.Quote:
A massive part of East Ukraine the people mainly speak Russian, are pro-Russian and in many cases want to be part of Russia.
Now, in the Good Old Days this issue would have been solved by deporting everyone which isn't happy or is ethnically different out of the country, such as in newly formed Poland or Kalingrad.
I know the current world order really has no good mechanism for enabling provinces/towns/regions to declare independence and get annexed by other countries as the current nation they are in usually don't want that to happen. Looking at the former Yugoslav states, present day Ethiopia/Tigray, Sudan>South Sudan, Catalonia, South Tirol, Taiwan, and the dozen 'frozen conflict' quasi states of the former Soviet Union.
However, allowing a country to redraw the map by force and take away their neighbor's territory is not really acceptable. The creation of Kosovo is really the only example in recent history of the US doing that and that was more in response to the Serbian actions against the Kosovars/Albanians.
The population exchanges sadly do work, no problem with the Sudetendeutsch after Benes understandably kicked them all out of Czechoslovakia after WW2. The Greeks and Turks were far more peaceful after the 1920s population exchange.
The land is certainly not worthless and actually was a very valuable part of the Ukraine in mining exploitation. The major problem of course is that the newly independent 'republics' don't control the whole of their own 'countries' and will likely need Russian 'peacekeepers' help to 'secure their borders.'Quote:
But back on topic, Russia manages to up the ante just a bit more by taking two areas of nigh on worthless land leading to widespread condemnation, demands for withdrawal and promises that no troops will be sent.
This just in, France invades Belgium and seizes Wallonia.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
I've seen even more vaguely-trollish Tiktoks of Russian mobilization, including but this one is just inexplicable.
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/stat...87284177264652 [VIDEO]
The gist of it is, a (seeming) radio announcement plays as the driver rolls alongside a convoy, with the speaker criticizing Ukraine
then increasingly-epic music plays as trucks roll into the twilight. I have even less idea of what's going on anymore (in the Midwestern sense).Quote:
Let me ask, you want to start a war with the Russians? Are you out of your mind? Do you know whom you're dealing with? Russians liberated you from the fascists at the cost of 20 million of their own lives? And you want to make war against them? What ill did they ever do against you? What are you talking about?
Senator Chris Murphy has a clear explainer on why he believes Putin is operating from a position of weakness.
On the new fronts of information warfare, in response ot the US embassy's anti-Russian memeing:
Quote:
Have a friend at a US consulate, they have a person who's job is just to monitor the Twitter of the RU consulate and get approval to counter-meme anything they post. Brave new world haha
Finally, Trump continues to be a total freak:
Quote:
Well, what went wrong was a rigged election and what went wrong is a candidate that shouldn’t be there and a man that has no concept of what he’s doing. I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, “This is genius.” Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine. Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful.
So Putin is now saying, “It’s independent,” a large section of Ukraine. I said, “How smart is that?” And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. That’s strongest peace force… We could use that on our southern border. That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re gonna keep peace all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy… I know him very well. Very, very well. [Ed. rofl]
By the way, this never would have happened with us. Had I been in office, not even thinkable. This would never have happened. But here’s a guy that says, you know, “I’m gonna declare a big portion of Ukraine independent,” he used the word “independent,” “and we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.” You gotta say that’s pretty savvy. And you know the response was from Biden? There was no response. They didn’t have one for that. No, it’s very sad. Very sad.
Russia's been at it a lot longer than we've been around. So has England. An American-centric lens doesn't make sense in a conflict where medieval settlement patterns are invoked.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
It should be foregrounded in any discussion of the conflict that almost everyone in Ukraine speaks Russian. Next, Joe Biden to liberate Ireland's English speakers from Celtic oppression and genocide? That one's slightly more plausible.Quote:
A massive part of East Ukraine the people mainly speak Russian,
Indeed, as with much of his rhetoric, Putin has been incoherent on this point. The Ukrainians turn up variously as antagonists of Russian folk, or as wayward, brainwashed Little Russians with no distinct identity or legitimacy themselves. Are Ukrainians a subset of Russians who deserve to be ruled by the Czar of All Russians, or are they predatory fascist Russophobes?
Still gotta sift through the particulars of this, to be fair, lesser-known conflict without falling afoul of propaganda. This just isn't true, though a plurality probably don't have any strong preference of suzerain as long as they can get on with their lives (as has been the case for most of human history).Quote:
are pro-Russian and in many cases want to be part of Russia.
I'd never heard of mining, but that it was a site of heavy industry which the Russians subsequently dismantled and looted.Quote:
Originally Posted by spmetla
There's no good mechanism because it's usually a matter of force as to the allocation of resources. When one faction or ethnic community can't get what it wants or needs by political means, the other options are separation or armed conflict to seize the state apparatus. So you have the situations in Myanmar and Ethiopia (though Ethiopia's civil war has been started by its former ruling class). And it's a whole other level of conflict when an external power foments and fabricates unrest,Quote:
I know the current world order really has no good mechanism for enabling provinces/towns/regions to declare independence and get annexed by other countries as the current nation they are in usually don't want that to happen. Looking at the former Yugoslav states, present day Ethiopia/Tigray, Sudan>South Sudan, Catalonia, South Tirol, Taiwan, and the dozen 'frozen conflict' quasi states of the former Soviet Union.
So there is no such thing as a peaceful resolution mechanism without a preexisting mutual consensus on separation or reform.
Does anyone have any context for this video? It's purported to be national broadcast from the end of 2021 showing the leader of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party declaring that
That's pretty ominous, and prescient. How does it reflect on recent events? Was it all preplanned? Did Zhirik let something slip improperly? Is or was the declaration part of Russian information strategy?Quote:
At 4am on 22 Feb you'll feel [our new policy]. I'd like 2022 to be peaceful. But I love the truth, for 75 years I've said the truth. It won't be peaceful. It will be a year when Russia once again becomes great.
I'm in poland and acts like this - threatening to sue if Poland builds nuclear power plants - as well as Nordstream generally are going down like a bucket of sick:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...92433113907200
adding to that the (lack of) support for Ukraine with acts such as blocking the lithuanian(?) artillery and a meagre 5k helmets in military aid is making Germany look like a very undependable ally.
EU imposes sanctions on all members of Russian Duma and other influential individuals. UK imposes sanctions on 5 Russian banks and 3 oligarchs. No sanctions on anyone who has donated to Tory party during Boris Johnson's time as PM. I guess those banks and oligarchs must be punished for forgetting to top up the party coffers.
In neither case will it make a jot of difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
~:smoking:
If so, why aren't the Tory government doing more?Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
China isn't imposing economic sanctions on Russia.
Because we are a small island the other side of Europe - a modern day phrase would be "We've not got the ships, we've not got the men, and not got the money too"... Pax Britannia is long since dead. And the last time we got involved in a war in that neck of the woods (the Crimea) it went horribly wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
A united Europe would struggle to project strength there. And Europe - be that NATO / EU or whatever - isn't. No country in Europe has forces with the reach, nor the logistical chain to back up anything like a near-peer war. Few, if any, in Western Europe have the will to do so.
Europe can stop buying their fuel. But European voters care a lot more about fuel bills than the Ukraine. Ironically, the UK doesn't purchase much Russian gas so we don't even have that lever to pull; I read an article that the UK could help the EU with LNG imports (since we have excess terminals and Europe doesn't have enough to compensate for the loss of Russia) but LNG is more expensive. We've stopped selling Russian debt - leaving only ten or so other places to sell it.
One of the few upsides in not mattering as a country is being able to kick back, look at big geopolitical issues and go "oh dear - someone really ought to do something about that..."
~:smoking:
I'm not talking about sending ships, planes, or boots on the ground. I'm talking about sanctions against Russian money. It's entirely within our power to do so. But despite all the noise about us being hardline against Russian aggression, we're doing less about Russian money than the EU are. None of those who've donated to the Tory party during Johnson's reign have any action taken against them, and precious few besides. What's the explanation for doing less than the EU on this matter?Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
I hope you're not expecting me to defend Boris.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
What I did say is that neither the EU nor the UK sanctions will do anything. Not buying Russian gas probably would eventually - but I don't see the EU jumping on that one. If the USA blocks Russia from the international banking system that would probably at the very least cause a massive inconvenience.
~:smoking:
Saw that coming a mile away, considering their claims on Taiwan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan
Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Russia/Russian plutocrats have hundreds of billions in assets in Europe, disproportionately in the UK. Not "what can" be done, much to do. It means nothing to speak of devastating financial repercussions against Russia without these steps, because the elite will parasitize the mass of Russians to the end unless you expropriate everything of 'theirs' you can identify. The Russian standard of living is irrelevant. The oligarchic standard of living is everything.Quote:
What I did say is that neither the EU nor the UK sanctions will do anything. Not buying Russian gas probably would eventually - but I don't see the EU jumping on that one. If the USA blocks Russia from the international banking system that would probably at the very least cause a massive inconvenience.
The UK is one of the biggest investment locations for Russian oligarchs, due to our willingness to allow money laundering. The Taliban are in a bind because everyone is freezing their assets. Why isn't the UK doing the same with Russian oligarchs?Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
torschlusspanik
The Russians are invading, and to a cover of Rammstein's Sonne at that.
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/stat...59399796051969 [VIDEO]
Publicly, he's staking out the middle ground (Donbas clearing operation). But the mythopoetic and nuclear-threat rhetoric aren't really compatible with anything but total conquest - not that Putin's obligated to obey the logic of his words.
Quote:
Путин заявил, что принял решение о проведении военной операции по защите Донбасса
Putin announced that he had decided to conduct a special military operation to protect Donbass.
Russia will not allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons, Putin added. The plans of the Russian Federation do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, he said.
Circumstances require decisive action from Russia, Putin said.
RF considers it important that all peoples of Ukraine could use the right of self-determination - Putin.
The actions of the Russian Federation are not connected with the infringement of the interests of Ukraine, but with protecting itself from "those who took Ukraine hostage" - Putin.
Russian state media already discussed a partition of Ukraine back in 2014, but the material they've been presenting now is even more extreme.
https://i.imgur.com/JFG4B1l.jpg
Clockwise from left: "Stalin's gifts"; "Gifts of the Russian czars"; "Ukraine"; "Lenin's gifts"; "Khruschev's gift."
From a mainline (American) paleoconservative outlet/commentator:
It is incontrovertible that the human Right today is inreasingly beglamoured by a psychotic evil, and we must defend ourselves.Quote:
To repeat myself: I am opposed to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. I think Russia should leave Ukraine alone, but whatever happens, I am adamantly against following the US leadership into hawkish actions against the Russians. It’s not at all because I support Russia or in any way approve of what it’s doing. (I hope Russian families and Russian soldiers stop to think about what exorbitant cost is extracted from them so that Putin can restore Greater Russia.) It’s rather that I am sick to the point of puking of these people — the American elites — sh*tting all over so many of us, yet expecting us to send our sons (and daughters) to fight its damn wars. Especially when the goal is to extend American political and cultural hegemony over the world, to allow the Western-oriented elites in those countries to ruin the lives of the normal people in those places in the same way they have ruined ours.
Put another way, I adamantly oppose risking the lives of boys from Louisiana and Alabama to make the Donbass safe for genderqueers and migrants. If that makes me a reactionary troll, fine, I’ll own that. I love my country and would put my life on the line to fight for her against foreign invaders. But we are not the good guys I used to think we were. We can’t even protect schoolgirls in Louisiana and Alabama from this toxic ideology that is destroying their moral sense, but they expect us to gear up in case we are called to fight for Ukraine?
Biden has said American troops won’t be fighting for Ukraine. I don’t believe him. It’s not that I think he’s consciously lying, but rather it’s that things could go very bad, very quickly, with US troops in the region. And it’s that my trust in anything anybody in Washington says is about at the level of a synod of bishops.
Some thoughts, with roughly appropriate soundtrack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_74nVpLVn9Q
I think the Azeri-Armenian war of 2020 will go down as a milestone of the 21st century, whether on par with 9/11 and a handful of others, only time will tell. Setting the stage for the principals of the contest such as to be reminiscent of the Balkan wars or the Spanish Civil War.
:coffeenews:Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Putin doesn't have many good years in power left. In principle, this was the best window of opportunity he could expect to get to settle imperial legacies. It would also be just the move, in his mind, to reassert his authority and image domestically (dispel the malaise of an F-tier pandemic response) and in the near-abroad (Belarus, Central Asia, Baltics). But like I said earlier, with oil and gas (mostly oil) representing a majority of Russia's exports, and a plurality of government revenues, Putin is being short-sighted. Unless the West really does flake at the last minute, this is the pivotal opportunity for Europe to diversify and decarbonize its energy demand, a process that in its culmination signals the terminal decline of the Russian economy (which has already struggled to stay afloat the existing sanctions regime).
Biden, get that money "printer" rolling and pay off our allies and citizens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oURMrJMcMmQ
Watching the photos and videos on various media sources my heart goes out to the Ukrainians right now. I'm just wondering whether any Ukrainian units will be able to stand their ground against so much firepower. Those MLRS barrages are something to behold not to mention everything else being done.
I can only hope that even the kitchen sink of sanctions is thrown in as it's too late to do anything else. Perhaps we'll see how far the Russians have penetrated and where in the next few hours. Given the countrywide strikes by Russia overnight I'm sure the command-and-control ability of the Ukrainian army is severely degraded, and their limited airpower is likely destroyed or soon to flee westward.
Hope the rest of Europe is ready for a mass of refugees from a fellow European state.
Same here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooahguy
Economic sanctions by the EU and North America alone won't stop Putin, not right away.
It seems that Russia has neutralized lot of military airports,installations and depots with cruise missiles already.Also major ports have been targeted. At least three separate armoured recon elements have crossed from Belarussia towards Ukrainian major cities. Also similar Armored elements have crossed from Crimea towards North, while attacks have started along the entire "separatist" frontier.
I would expect that within today the main bodies of those armoured formations will pour in from North and South, while probably amphibious landings will happen at Black Sea coast. On top of that my bet is that paratroops and air mobile infantry will start landing on key locations soon enough. Black Day for all of us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw9Y9VupVkk
The analogies with Azerbaijan are unconvincing. Azerbaijan took back the Azerbaijani lands, which had been conquered by the Armenians 25 years ago. The land was globally recognized as Azerbaijani, despite being ethnically cleansed and under Armenian military occupation.
Russian air assault starts near Kiev: https://twitter.com/i/status/1496805801628995587
just heard from polish radio (we've been into Wielun in the car), that russian forces were at the ring road going around kiev....Quote:
Originally Posted by Kagemusha
The perceived legitimacy of the claims is irrelevant to the geopolitical impact. Putin, Xi, et al. didn't sit there thinking 'Ah, so it's allowed to take territory from another state as long as it's within internationally-recognized borders.'Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
We should interpret the event functionally as open season on irredentism.
What perceived legitimacy? Everyone recognized these lands as Azerbaijani. How can an act that conciliates the de facto with the de jure situation be described as irredentist? As I said, he didn't take any territory from Armenia, since Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories, according even to Armenia itself. Also, unlike Russia, Azerbaijan was not diplomatically isolated. That was more true for Armenia, which is largely why it was crushed in the conflict. I don't know from where Putin got his inspiration (not sure how China is relevant), probably from nowhere, if I had to guess, but Azerbaijan is one of the worst examples imagined. It would be more appropriate for Ukraine, if it had invaded the Donbass, in order to throw out the Russian occupying troops.
Certainly, terrifying watching the war's coverage on twitter. Seems Ukraine is putting up more of a fight than the Russian's expected though with the major breakout in the South to Kherson and the current battle over the airport west of Kiev who knows how long they can hold. The casualties on both sides must be intense though, based off what I've seen so far probably KIA in the high hundreds and WIA in the thousands for Russia and KIA and WIA in the high thousands for Ukraine.
The current cyber attacks on Russian websites are likely from the US/NATO which together with the war being close to NATO borders will create very dangerous possibilities for expansion of the war. Can very easily see scenarios where Russia's shoot down NATO aircraft or do artillery barrages against Ukrainian positions near Romania or Poland leading to the possibility of escalation. This thing is extremely dangerous.
The current 1984-esque thinking by China is mind boggling of we 'respect Ukraine's sovereignty' while also saying this is not an invasion and they understand 'Russia's legitimate security concerns.'
I'll expect Finland and Sweden to either go outright NATO applicants or just short of in military partnership in the near future.
The fate of Moldova will be interesting as that is still a sore spot for Romania as the people are ethnic Romanians that Russia has repeatedly separated from Romania and tried to russify over that last two centuries.
i believe we are now doing just this - stage #2 has arrived after the first bunch of measures taken earlier in the week:Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...96779983683584
rumour has it that italy and france are vetoing kicking russia out of the SWIFT intebank system:
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/statu...92887732297730
I've heard a lot of reports that NE Ukraine (Sumny/Chernihiv) are being penetrated, deeply at that, which dovetails with this report from a month ago that the Ukrainian army was designating most of the area between Kiev and Kharkiv undefendable. Seems a little odd, since those areas have the most forest cover in Eastern Ukraine AFAIK. Or maybe this is also part of the Ukrainian army's supposed doctrine of organizing regulars for guerrilla operations subsequent to the opening phase of conflict, if the rest of Eastern Ukraine isn't conducive for it (Ukraine's typical terrain made it almost a green zone for German forces during WW2, I've read, with almost all partisan activity being concentrated in and around the borders of contemporary Belarus). Any corrections on this point are appreciated.
[For clarity, this is just a pre-war map highlighting the oblasts in question]
https://i.imgur.com/8aAOGac.jpg
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
I'm telling you that's beside the point. Whether you think Azerbaijan was justified in starting a new war doesn't change the fact that two conventional forces clashed, one lost bad, and had to give up territory (and it's not inconceivable that Azerbaijan could have occupied all of NK/A and much of Armenia had Russia not intervened diplomatically). If you just have a strong sense of Azerbaijan being 'good guys', I repeat, that's irrelevant. They could be the very best like no one ever was, or worse than Hitler. Consequences are a function of power, not good or bad. A small country like Azerbaijan used war to (re)take land for the nation. If they can do it, so can (potentially) anyone else. The implications of such a weltgeist are immediately accessible.
Frozen territorial claims have been heating up everywhere over the past 15 years from the West Pacific to Atlantic Africa, but the 2020 war was the first time since WW2 that anyone I know of has been able to settle them by force. Azerbaijan won. Armenia can't touch them, and was lucky to retain its government; the people of NK/A were lucky to avoid ethnic cleansing. Armenia could in the future get roiled into a suicidal war of revenge, or Azeri leadership a hankering for conquest, but the variables are permanently changed. From the Azeri POV they enjoyed almost a total success (and we should hope they are satisfied). World leaders can observe these developments for themselves. Don't rule out Cypriot unification within the decade, for an example closer to home.
You don't need a lot of imagination or effort to understand it, he laid out his [I[motivation[/I] in great detail, as have his cronies. He's a palingenetic Russian ultranationalist, with all that entails. What my post described was the development of the opportunity at this point in time. Why here, why now? I don't think it's a coincidence that China and Russia immediately took on a more escalatory posture to their respective claims as the dust settled in the Caucasus.Quote:
I don't know from where Putin got his inspiration (not sure how China is relevant), probably from nowhere, if I had to guess, but Azerbaijan is one of the worst examples imagined.
China is in the picture because it has very similar aspirations wrt Taiwan, and haven't carefully built the second-most powerful military in the world just for the sake of posturing.
But we can at least safely rule out Republican Senator of Alabama Tuberville's (the Slavic version of his name might be Bulbashovka) account: “He can’t feed his people. It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”
The US should of course finance whatever is needed, including any short-term production boost Saudi Arabia can be convinced to release, but the EU really needs to take a hard line and start issuing more bonds on this very special occasion. EU countries need to take the opportunity to agree on a comprehensive energy security/decarbonization package. While the bandage is already being ripped off, seize the moment to do as much as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
It's not about Azerbaijan being the goodies or the baddies, but that the comparison was completely unsuitable, for the legal and diplomatic reasons I cited. Could Cyprus be reunited? Yes, sure, if something like the previous referendum passes. Could Turkey conquer the rest of the island. Not a single chance, in Greece only the crazies of the Golden Dawn believe in that stuff.
As for Putin's motivation, you make the mistake of buying his bubble intended for domestic purposes and then spinning it to fit the dominant narrative in geopolitical discourse since the '90s about ideology being a primary factor. Not sure about the dust settling either. It's been more than a year since the Armenians capitulated.
EDIT: Fidonisi has been taken. Zelenski is presenting its defense as the Ukrainian Hotgates. He's too melodramatic I believe, which might actually undermine morale.
Live maps of the military dispositions have begun coming out for what they're worth, this one from militaryland dot net. I think an earlier version displaying just the starting deployments supports the impression that Ukraine planned to largely abandon the NE, with something like 3 brigades for the whole area compared to 9 or 10 around Donbas.
https://i.imgur.com/wqvYb99.png
A country can conquer land that is legally its or not, and with or without diplomatic support from other countries. But the fact on the ground is that very success or failure of conquest, which is the part that I've repeatedly emphasized. The question is ultimately whether world leaders believe the comparison is suitable. I'm confident many do, because observers have no reason to link or restrict the lessons of that war to the quality of some legal justification. That sounds naive. Azerbaijan didn't accomplish what it did by the exercise of law.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
So, Putin has spoken and governed as a nationalist his entire career, exalted the Russian Empire and Russian Soviet power, derided Ukrainian autonomy, spent a lot of political and economic resources on trying to suppress it, and finally declared - in his capacity as autocrat - a very likely ruinous (to all sides) European ground war, Europe's and Russia's biggest offensive since the advance against Berlin in 1945, on the stated premise that Russia cannot allow the existence of a divergent Ukraine as a matter of national pride, propriety, and security. Your reaction to this is that you have no idea why he's invading, but that his stated reasons have nothing to do with the truth? C'mon man.
Though separately on the future of the Azeri-Armenian conflict as such, reading this analysis leaves me discouraged. Almost 100 killed counted since the Nov 2020 ceasefire in border clashes, compared to fewer than 200 from 2015 to the 2020 war (excluding 2 – 11 April 2016), though this year has been quiet.
Audio supposedly from the island battle Crandar mentions. All 13 defenders were killed. I'm assuming it was a volunteer assignment.
"We are a Russian ship, lay down your arms."
"Russian ship, go :daisy: yourself."
The senselessness of war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDrFVdms8yk
I've been using a different one but seems to be tracking similiarly:Quote:
Live maps of the military dispositions have begun coming out for what they're worth, this one from militaryland dot net. I think an earlier version displaying just the starting deployments supports the impression that Ukraine planned to largely abandon the NE, with something like 3 brigades for the whole area compared to 9 or 10 around Donbas.
https://liveuamap.com/
As for the NE, when you look at it with the river to the East and then the heavy Russian force at Karkiv it turns into a pocket that could get cut off. A shorter line of defense instead of a no step back approach makes sense against a superior force, especially considering that's what Manstein had to do in almost the same area after Stalingrad was lost.
The Russian loss of that VDV helicopter Battalion (this is just an estimate) at Gostomel airport is certainly a tremendous set back. Like market garden it may not change the course of the war but certainly let the enemy know you're still a potent fighting force.
Supposedly a heck of an air battle/air defense over Kiev tonight, can only wonder what's happening. The 'Ghost of Kiev' rumor about some lone Ukrainian pilot becoming an overnight Ace are unproven just yet but who knows. The rumors of it though are the type of thing that oddly enough help the nerves of the guys on the ground.
Followed that too, truly horrible for those that died there. A sensless death but heroic none the less, especially in our 'european culture' which has always admired doomed last stands from Thermopylae to the Alamo and beyond.Quote:
Audio supposedly from the island battle Crandar mentions. All 13 defenders were killed. I'm assuming it was a volunteer assignment.
"We are a Russian ship, lay down your arms."
"Russian ship, go yourself."
The senselessness of war.
Following the squashed protests today around Russia though I'm glad to see not all there have bought into his nationalist view. Though they won't change the outcome perhaps the economic pressures, internal domestic pressures, the oligarch pressures, and if this war goes on long and poorly the military pressures can do something to oust him for someone saner.Quote:
So, Putin has spoken and governed as a nationalist his entire career, exalted the Russian Empire and Russian Soviet power, derided Ukrainian autonomy, spent a lot of political and economic resources on trying to suppress it, and finally declared - in his capacity as autocrat - a very likely ruinous (to all sides) European ground war, Europe's and Russia's biggest offensive since the advance against Berlin in 1945, on the stated premise that Russia cannot allow the existence of a divergent Ukraine as a matter of national pride, propriety, and security. Your reaction to this is that you have no idea why he's invading, but that his stated reasons have nothing to do with the truth? C'mon man.
The next few days will continue to be interesting, Russia's full might hasn't come to bear yet though the initial assaults have not proven easy.
I think the only thing different in the Azeri example is that it was a limited war over territorial claims, a peace deal with the Armenians was an option. The wars of regime change like in Iraq or now in Ukraine leave no one to make peace with, this one being tied with territorial claims though makes it even more difficult.Quote:
The question is ultimately whether world leaders believe the comparison is suitable. I'm confident many do, because observers have no reason to link or restrict the lessons of that war to the quality of some legal justification. That sounds naive. Azerbaijan didn't accomplish what it did by the exercise of law.
The Azeri war certainly showed force can change borders with conventional arms. Iraq tried it with Iran and then with Kuwait both with failed results but had they succeeded it would have changed the status quo for sure, no such sanctions happened to the Azeris, no such outcry but then they are more western aligned and the territory in question was de jure theirs though ethnically and defacto Armenian. Another population change (ethnic cleansing/evictions) there will make the change permanent.
Announcement from Germany:
On Linkedin lmaoQuote:
Inspector of the Army this morning on LinkedIn: "The Bundeswehr, the army that I am allowed to lead, is more or less empty. The options that we can offer politicians to support the alliance are extremely limited."
I use it too, for the sidebar updates, but so far it's not satisfying in regard to mapping the advance. Though civvies have almost no truly reliable ways of doing so, I still like to see the ballpark. For now I'm thinking of comparing the conservative Militaryland map against this fascist Russian channel's probably-optimistic operational analysis . Not that I blithely embrace the simple nostrum of the truth lying in between, but...Quote:
Originally Posted by spmetla
https://i.imgur.com/pElQkvh.jpg
It just seems like the best area in Eastern Ukraine to have a hedgehog defense with small units. I don't know what's done what, but at least some of the donated Javelins/NLAWS appear to be proving their effect; plenty of forested roads and villages from which to heroically blast apart armored columns. Especially considering that... 9-10 UA brigades are in serious jeopardy of being cut off between opposition and the Dnieper within the next 24 hours, that is, the forces deployed along the Donbas front. That army is being outflanked from north and south and oversees the very worst terrain for defense in depth. Am I crazy or...???Quote:
As for the NE, when you look at it with the river to the East and then the heavy Russian force at Karkiv it turns into a pocket that could get cut off. A shorter line of defense instead of a no step back approach makes sense against a superior force, especially considering that's what Manstein had to do in almost the same area after Stalingrad was lost.
Is that precedented? It would have to be, like, an Su-27 with a full 6-missile A2A loadout hitting every shot, or else anachronistic WW2-style dogfighting. The other fighters Ukraine fields only have 4 A2A mounts from quick reference.Quote:
Supposedly a heck of an air battle/air defense over Kiev tonight, can only wonder what's happening. The 'Ghost of Kiev' rumor about some lone Ukrainian pilot becoming an overnight Ace are unproven just yet but who knows.
Well, we had bigger protests against the Iraq War, and they didn't change anything. Somehow we have to get the picture across to the Russian people, and the elites, backed up with action, that maximal economic terrorism against Russia will persist even if and when Putin conquers Ukraine. I'm not going to say the only acceptable offramp is regime change in the Kremlin, since we should be willing to accept peace from a chagrined Putin retreating his forces, but then he might face regime change anyway (and so would never back down while still in power). But that's the principle of the thing, which is what we should try to communicate. On-target messaging, economic devastation, and heavy casualties are the only plausible effective combination.Quote:
Following the squashed protests today around Russia though I'm glad to see not all there have bought into his nationalist view.
I could be wrong, but I thought the Armenian-occupied areas outside NK/A were still basically unsettled by civilians following the cleansing of the original post-Soviet war, on account of the constant danger and according to some kind of diplomatic agreement. And also that Armenia doesn't have a lot of excess Volk to export, being the size of Connecticut. One of the reasons the Azeri victory seemed so clean as to be an example to those who want to draw inspiration from such things.Quote:
The Azeri war certainly showed force can change borders with conventional arms. Iraq tried it with Iran and then with Kuwait both with failed results but had they succeeded it would have changed the status quo for sure, no such sanctions happened to the Azeris, no such outcry but then they are more western aligned and the territory in question was de jure theirs though ethnically and defacto Armenian. Another population change (ethnic cleansing/evictions) there will make the change permanent.
For example, this former town of 7000 Azeris before the 1990s war had only hundreds in Armenian population when retaken in 2020.
Not to say that there weren't crimes against civilians when the Azeris encountered them, but compared to most other global flashpoints there aren't that many civilians around through much of the combat area.
Actually, LiveUA added some frontline movements. Side-by-side.
https://i.imgur.com/pQwaqVa.jpg
I suppose the consensus is that Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Melitopol are cut off if not surrounded.
Also, interesting, if this somehow doesn't fall afoul of sanctions then NATO really needs to up its game fast.
Although the majority of Russia's wheat export goes to Turkey and Egypt.Quote:
As Ukraine crisis deepens, China lifts all wheat-import restrictions on Russia
Agreement reflects deepening ties between Beijing and Moscow while addressing China’s need to enhance food security
China could provide a lifeline to Russia’s economy after the United States and its allies imposed swift economic sanctions on Moscow this week
Apparently Russian armoured spearhead has reached periphery of Kiev from North and West linking with the Airborne at Hostomel airport. Some infiltrating Russian military units have already been detected and neutralized already inside the city, but i predict the Battle of Kiev is about to happen.
One observation is that there seems to be thousands strong Chechen Rosvgardia unit somewhere at Northern border of Ukraine and Belarus. I hope Putin is not sending them to Kiev, which might spell massacre.
https://twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/sta...546240/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/stat...732229/photo/3
Russia Issues Ominous Warning to Finland, Sweden Should They Join NATO
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-thre...vasion-1682715
Not surprising but also exactly why this invasion is so self-defeating in that it is strengthening NATO and giving it purpose again while also demonstrating in the strongest possible way the importance of having allies if you dare to have an opinion that differs from your superpower neighbor.Quote:
"Finland and Sweden should not base their security damaging the security of other countries," Zakharova said during the press conference.
"Clearly [the] accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO, which is first and foremost a military alliance, would have serious military-political repercussions that would demand a response from our country," she said.
This comes after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the country was receiving support from both nations.
Meanwhile in the Black Sea the potential for escalation despite Russian dominance of the sea is there in the strike on a Turkish owned ship, a Moldavian ship, and a Japanese ship too. This will give a lot of pressure on the Turks to consider closing the straits for more Russia ships into the Black Sea.
https://www.reuters.com/world/turkis...ty-2022-02-24/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...opean-26329832
https://splash247.com/two-more-ships...the-black-sea/
I've been watching that penetration too, given the tough resistance that the Ukrainians have put up elsewhere I expect this will be a hell of a hard slog for the Russians. Their sorta ownership of the air will make it hard for Ukraine to redeploy heavy units to contain this pocket but a mix of light and medium forces operating in the suburbs of a major city is difficult for any army to fight against.Quote:
Apparently Russian armoured spearhead has reached periphery of Kiev from North and West linking with the Airborne at Hostomel airport. Some infiltrating Russian military units have already been detected and neutralized already inside the city, but i predict the Battle of Kiev is about to happen.
I imagine though that supplies of ATGMs and Stingers are running low though their prevalence throughout the country as denied the Russians the ability to rely on low flying close support from gunships and CAS.
I hope that Taiwan takes note of the above and sees that they need high- and low-end capability to have an effect defense as Montmorency has advocated.
It seems Ukrainians are digging in at Kiev and i sincerely hope Russians will get bogged down there. Each day the Ukrainians can hold there can have a huge impact on this whole conflict. What is needed now is something that would act as a rally point. Never mind that this whole thing is an human catastrophe in huge scale and what Ukrainians are experiencing right now is inexcusable by any rhetoric from the Russians. What West needs to do is to keep the handheld Anti Tank and Anti Air capacity flowing into Ukraine by any means necessary. Worst enough being left alone to fight. The Ukrainians should never run out of ordinance to fight with. I sure hope the best for them in this God Awful mess this situation is.Quote:
Originally Posted by spmetla
There are some noises from China about respecting Ukrainian sovereignty. It remains to be seen if they will fully turn against Russia, and if Russia will continue without at least tacit Chinese tolerance. Threatening to bring the whole economic system down and bring the Chinese down with us may be the most effective way the west can contribute.
It seems that the Russians are right now trying to take down the power plant of Kiev. Im worried that this might turn really ugly this very night.
Concerning China. I am kinda worried that China has made some sort of deal with Russia maybe in part of Shanghai 5. If Europe stops buying the Russian Oil and Gas the only market large enough to do so left is Asia.
china says it supports ukranian sovereignty, but encourages dialogue to address russian security concerns.
they're fully behind russia.
My apologies, the Mig-29 - the model of plane said to be flown by the Ghost of Kyiv - can carry 6 A2A missiles. The story is theoretically possible, though not feasible outside a videogame. Are there any Ukrainian planes still flying beyond Kiev?
So it seems over the past 20 hours Sumy fell, Hostomel was recaptured by Russia, and all the major contact point cities from yesterday are being reduced. Yet DoD reportedly considers this a slower advance than expected?
Russia announces intent to stage talks. An indicator that they won't advance past the Bug? I.e. a looming partition of Ukraine. Also may be an attempt to preempt or defuse sanctions not yet applied.
I'm unsure of whether Zelensky is right to remain the capital. In light of the Russian announcement that they intend to kill him, I wonder if he believes martyring himself will galvanize future resistance. Even his buddy Kiev Mayor Klitschko, and former Pres. Poroshenko, are in Kiev, though they claim intent to personally resist with arms. You can find a news clip interviewing Poroshenko as he gets choked up with his militia behind him.
The Militaryland team apparently has people on the ground; some of the videos on their Twitter are original content driving around the highways of Ukraine.
In general, a lot of OC video clips are locked behind the social media platform Telegram, if you want to venture to those channels.
ngl big Isengard vibes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kagemusha
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...79295726411779 [video]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afw8e-abVa8
important update from Germany:
https://twitter.com/hemicker/status/1497230857207263239
interesting view on what success looks like from the daddy or british IR:Quote:
Germany‘s 5000 helmets are finally on their way in two trucks. They will be given to the Ukrainian authorities outside their country, in order to avoid any risk for the German side, according to @dpa
https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckle...utm_source=url
How i see it. Once the assault on Kyev starts. Longer the Kiovan can stand the initial assault more hard it will become for Russians to take the city. I am hoping for it to become "Stalingrad" for Putin, but to be honest when i am looking at the childlike faces of the Ukrainian conscripts and compare those to the hardened Russian veterans and even more so to beasts like these Kadyrovs Chechen Mountainers. I worry, but i believe miracles can and will happen. One should never underestimate men or women defending their homes, families and their freedom. Never underestimate that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9Dg-g7t2l4