Great Power contentions

[rory_20_uk]

I'm not talking about sending ships, planes, or boots on the ground. I'm talking about sanctions against Russian money. It's entirely within our power to do so. But despite all the noise about us being hardline against Russian aggression, we're doing less about Russian money than the EU are. None of those who've donated to the Tory party during Johnson's reign have any action taken against them, and precious few besides. What's the explanation for doing less than the EU on this matter?

I hope you're not expecting me to defend Boris.

What I did say is that neither the EU nor the UK sanctions will do anything. Not buying Russian gas probably would eventually - but I don't see the EU jumping on that one. If the USA blocks Russia from the international banking system that would probably at the very least cause a massive inconvenience.

[Montmorency]

Because we are a small island the other side of Europe - a modern day phrase would be "We've not got the ships, we've not got the men, and not got the money too"... Pax Britannia is long since dead. And the last time we got involved in a war in that neck of the woods (the Crimea) it went horribly wrong.

A united Europe would struggle to project strength there. And Europe - be that NATO / EU or whatever - isn't. No country in Europe has forces with the reach, nor the logistical chain to back up anything like a near-peer war. Few, if any, in Western Europe have the will to do so.

What I did say is that neither the EU nor the UK sanctions will do anything. Not buying Russian gas probably would eventually - but I don't see the EU jumping on that one. If the USA blocks Russia from the international banking system that would probably at the very least cause a massive inconvenience.

Russia/Russian plutocrats have hundreds of billions in assets in Europe, disproportionately in the UK. Not "what can" be done, much to do. It means nothing to speak of devastating financial repercussions against Russia without these steps, because the elite will parasitize the mass of Russians to the end unless you expropriate everything of 'theirs' you can identify. The Russian standard of living is irrelevant. The oligarchic standard of living is everything.

[Pannonian]

I hope you're not expecting me to defend Boris.

What I did say is that neither the EU nor the UK sanctions will do anything. Not buying Russian gas probably would eventually - but I don't see the EU jumping on that one. If the USA blocks Russia from the international banking system that would probably at the very least cause a massive inconvenience.

The UK is one of the biggest investment locations for Russian oligarchs, due to our willingness to allow money laundering. The Taliban are in a bind because everyone is freezing their assets. Why isn't the UK doing the same with Russian oligarchs?

[Montmorency]

torschlusspanik


The Russians are invading, and to a cover of Rammstein's Sonne at that.
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/stat...59399796051969 [VIDEO]

Publicly, he's staking out the middle ground (Donbas clearing operation). But the mythopoetic and nuclear-threat rhetoric aren't really compatible with anything but total conquest - not that Putin's obligated to obey the logic of his words.

Путин заявил, что принял решение о проведении военной операции по защите Донбасса

Putin announced that he had decided to conduct a special military operation to protect Donbass.

Russia will not allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons, Putin added. The plans of the Russian Federation do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, he said.

Circumstances require decisive action from Russia, Putin said.

RF considers it important that all peoples of Ukraine could use the right of self-determination - Putin.

The actions of the Russian Federation are not connected with the infringement of the interests of Ukraine, but with protecting itself from "those who took Ukraine hostage" - Putin.

Russian state media already discussed a partition of Ukraine back in 2014, but the material they've been presenting now is even more extreme.



Clockwise from left: "Stalin's gifts"; "Gifts of the Russian czars"; "Ukraine"; "Lenin's gifts"; "Khruschev's gift."

From a mainline (American) paleoconservative outlet/commentator:

To repeat myself: I am opposed to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. I think Russia should leave Ukraine alone, but whatever happens, I am adamantly against following the US leadership into hawkish actions against the Russians. It’s not at all because I support Russia or in any way approve of what it’s doing. (I hope Russian families and Russian soldiers stop to think about what exorbitant cost is extracted from them so that Putin can restore Greater Russia.) It’s rather that I am sick to the point of puking of these people — the American elites — sh*tting all over so many of us, yet expecting us to send our sons (and daughters) to fight its damn wars. Especially when the goal is to extend American political and cultural hegemony over the world, to allow the Western-oriented elites in those countries to ruin the lives of the normal people in those places in the same way they have ruined ours.

Put another way, I adamantly oppose risking the lives of boys from Louisiana and Alabama to make the Donbass safe for genderqueers and migrants. If that makes me a reactionary troll, fine, I’ll own that. I love my country and would put my life on the line to fight for her against foreign invaders. But we are not the good guys I used to think we were. We can’t even protect schoolgirls in Louisiana and Alabama from this toxic ideology that is destroying their moral sense, but they expect us to gear up in case we are called to fight for Ukraine?

Biden has said American troops won’t be fighting for Ukraine. I don’t believe him. It’s not that I think he’s consciously lying, but rather it’s that things could go very bad, very quickly, with US troops in the region. And it’s that my trust in anything anybody in Washington says is about at the level of a synod of bishops.

It is incontrovertible that the human Right today is inreasingly beglamoured by a psychotic evil, and we must defend ourselves.

[Montmorency]

Some thoughts, with roughly appropriate soundtrack.



I think the Azeri-Armenian war of 2020 will go down as a milestone of the 21st century, whether on par with 9/11 and a handful of others, only time will tell. Setting the stage for the principals of the contest such as to be reminiscent of the Balkan wars or the Spanish Civil War.

I can't help but think this episode will only reinforce the Israeli commitment to occupying as much land as they can get away with. The message of a territorially-larger country overwhelming a smaller one's occupation of its territory by dint of a bigger population and military as well as allies must for Israel be on par with the one received by North Korea and Iran when Hussein got wiped out. And Israel's holdings are honestly more modest than Armenia's were, following the return of the Sinai to Egypt. (I assume the logic behind the Armenian occupation around Nagorno-Karabakh was in the first place precisely to give itself, a smaller country than Azerbaijan in every way, a buffer between its heartland and the opposition.)

Moreover, that this was such a lopsided, quick, and decisive conflict might encourage future irredentism and authoritarian adventurism around the world: 'If it worked for Azerbaijan, maybe it can work for us.'

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Some significant developments of the past two years, from Russia's perspective:

• An uncontrolled pandemic kills up to a million Russians (cf. excess deaths estimates), while the domestic vaccine is mustrusted to the point of refusal by half the public.
• Massive protests threatening Putin's closest allies (Belarus, Kazakhstan) challenge Russian authority and provoke militarized assistance with backroom concessions.
• Russia's man in DC is deposed, but the United States is more divided and chaotic than ever as it struggles with the wounded pride of Afghanistan, Covidiocy, and an ongoing insurrection up through the elite.
• In a war between former Soviet states (longtime Russian clients) that threatens Russian influence in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan proves decisively - for the first time since perhaps WW2 - that one sovereign state can straight up conquer another in conventional warfare without much fuss, annex territory, and get away with it.
• China, Russia's crucial strategic partner, takes notice and immediately heightens irredentist rhetoric and maneuvering over Taiwan.
• The pandemic-linked global supply chain crisis returns oil and gas prices to their highest in almost a decade. The EU is burdened by high energy expenditures into Winter 2022.

Putin doesn't have many good years in power left. In principle, this was the best window of opportunity he could expect to get to settle imperial legacies. It would also be just the move, in his mind, to reassert his authority and image domestically (dispel the malaise of an F-tier pandemic response) and in the near-abroad (Belarus, Central Asia, Baltics). But like I said earlier, with oil and gas (mostly oil) representing a majority of Russia's exports, and a plurality of government revenues, Putin is being short-sighted. Unless the West really does flake at the last minute, this is the pivotal opportunity for Europe to diversify and decarbonize its energy demand, a process that in its culmination signals the terminal decline of the Russian economy (which has already struggled to stay afloat the existing sanctions regime).

Biden, get that money "printer" rolling and pay off our allies and citizens.

[spmetla]

Watching the photos and videos on various media sources my heart goes out to the Ukrainians right now. I'm just wondering whether any Ukrainian units will be able to stand their ground against so much firepower. Those MLRS barrages are something to behold not to mention everything else being done.

I can only hope that even the kitchen sink of sanctions is thrown in as it's too late to do anything else. Perhaps we'll see how far the Russians have penetrated and where in the next few hours. Given the countrywide strikes by Russia overnight I'm sure the command-and-control ability of the Ukrainian army is severely degraded, and their limited airpower is likely destroyed or soon to flee westward.

Hope the rest of Europe is ready for a mass of refugees from a fellow European state.

[Furunculus]

The UK is one of the biggest investment locations for Russian oligarchs, due to our willingness to allow money laundering. The Taliban are in a bind because everyone is freezing their assets. Why isn't the UK doing the same with Russian oligarchs?

i believe we are now doing just this - stage #2 has arrived after the first bunch of measures taken earlier in the week:

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...96779983683584

rumour has it that italy and france are vetoing kicking russia out of the SWIFT intebank system:

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/statu...92887732297730