But of course.
And the backlash all the more severe, sit back, grab some pretzels, and watch idiots destroy themselves. Don't be so hasty, they are done for, they are going to claw a lot of people on their way down, but down they go.
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Credit where credit is due: those folks know how to hold a tea-party. Not some namby-pamby tea-bagging demo.
From the west's point of view, whoever gets the big job after all this, if he's believeable when he says they're just building nuke power plants, not bombs, then it's all good. No matter how much talk is done with/at Ahmadinejad, he'll never be believeable.
Even though the protesters and I probably disagree on politics, policy & philosophy, the American Rebel in me stands in awed admiration, I admit; these guys don't quit, and aren't daunted by the powers that be, or the liklihood of failure. They may die, but they insist that THEY WILL BE HEARD.
Good on 'em.
That's not exactly what he said, as your own quote proves. Xiahou, much like Matt Drudge, you seem to be intent on relating everything back to Obama; I hope you find this activity rewarding and fulfilling.
Meanwhile, Roger Cohen has another killer essay.
I said the Islamic Republic has been weakened. Why? I see five principal factors. The first is that the supreme leader’s post — the apex of the structure conceived by the revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — has been undermined. The keystone of the arch is now loose.
Khamenei, far from an arbiter with a Prophet-like authority, has looked more like a ruthless infighter. His word has been defied. At night, from rooftops, I’ve even heard people call for his death. The unthinkable has occurred.
The second is that the hypocritical but effective contract that bound society has been broken. The regime never had active support from more than 20 percent of the population. But acquiescence was secured by using only highly targeted repression (leaving the majority free to go about its business), and by giving people a vote for the president every four years.
That’s over. Repression will be broad and ferocious in the coming months. The acquiescent have already become the angry. You can’t turn Iran into Burma: The resistance of a society this varied and savvy will be fierce.
The third is that a faction loyal to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, fiercely nationalistic and mystically religious, has made a power grab so bold that fissures in the establishment have become canyons.
Members of this faction include Hassan Taeb, the leader of the Basiji militia; Saeed Jalili, the head of the National Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator; and Mojtaba Khamenei, the reclusive but influential son of the supreme leader.
They have their way for now, but the cost to Iran has been immense, and the rearguard action led by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a father of the revolution, and Mir Hussein Moussavi, the opposition leader, will be intense.
The fourth is that Iran’s international rhetoric, effective in Ahmadinejad’s first term, will be far less so now. Every time he talks of justice and ethics, his two favorite words, video will roll of Neda Agha Soltan’s murder and the regime’s truncheon-wielding goons at work. The president may prove too much of a liability to preserve.
The fifth is that, at the very peak of its post-revolution population boom, the regime has lost a whole new generation — and particularly the women of that generation — by failing to adapt.
-edit-
Question: Why didn't the Supreme Leader blame everything on Ahmadinejad and throw him under a bus? It was the logical move, but instead he backed Dinnerjacket completely. Thoughts?
Opinion: Fixing the election was unneccessary and has backfired. At best a reformist leader could only lean Iran in a direction, not actually make a change of course. In Iranian terms Moussavi may be such a reformer even if he is still fiercely right-wing in our eyes; the failure to elect him must mean something though.
Two possibilities occur to me:
1. The Supreme Leader is weak, or losing grip of his mental faculties. In such a situation Dinnerjacket may have more power than we might otherwise expect.
2. The Regime was already scared, they know the young don't back the revolution and they are trying to maintain control.
What is the reformist element within the council of clerics? Is THIS element posing a threat to Khamanei and thus generating the harsh line he's taking?
Good essay Lemur, nice points by Cohen.
I think the Iranian leadership may be facing a bit of a "governor Tarquin" experience, without an available Deathstar to extinguish the rebellion.
Just a guess, but I think Moussavi is viewed as too willing to compromise/negotiate on the "nuclear issue" in future talks with the West. Ahmadinejad is much more inflexible on the subject and would drive a much harder bargain if any at all. Khamenei mentioned right after the election that Dinnerjacket's views were more in line with his...so it was "divine intervention" that Dinnerjacket won so convincingly. with a little help from his friendsQuote:
Question: Why didn't the Supreme Leader blame everything on Ahmadinejad and throw him under a bus? It was the logical move, but instead he backed Dinnerjacket completely. Thoughts?
Those with facebook should join this group to show solidarity. A guy in Tehran sent out this message for members of the group:
Thank you all my friends... all the firends of my people, as we face this terrible day. I myself I am broken at heart. The wicked deeds of this eveil ayatollah do not stop. My twin has been shot and my mother is sick with grief. I do not know what to do. the world is dark for us. Please invite anyone you can to join this group, any group. go to your strret corner and stand with a placard. Please help. that is all i can say. help us.
It was destroying protesters that got them in trouble in the first place. Need I point out the Neda topic?
Poor Ayatollah. I bet Vader never had these problems. As I recall the Empire's method of dealing with protesters is to land shuttlecraft on top of them.
It's hard coming up with star wars references if you don't let the bad guys have a death star!
I just read a news item about the German-Finish company I work for and apparently this whole mess is our fault....:dizzy2: according to some people...
how weird waking up one day and find out you work for the 'evil empire'
Presently both sides having guns would at least help balance the debate. The difference between now & the last revolution is simply that bearded nutters with guns are now the establishment and being sneaky sandpeople, (star war ref. am not going out of my way to be a total bigot), they took all their weapons with them once they got what they wanted.
Final thing, if the number of people killed so far happened in any number of other countries it already would be classed as a bloodbath. Why is it some countries & their regimes don't get bloodbatch status until the body count hits triple figures or higher.
While I certainly see the logic in giving the people guns, wouldn't that just do two things:
1) lead to an even greater escalation in violence
And
2) Seeing as there is no police force and the state would have no monopoly on violence - wouldn't there be an increase in the rate of armed crime? People without guns rely on the police force to protect them and when the police force is not around to do so those who would have legally obtained weapons would have these people at their mercy.
Like the USA and USSR having nukes led to WWIII? Right now, the violence is the police and Baji (sp?) shooting protesters, who have only rocks. I think they might be more reluctant if they were facing tens of thousands of protesters with guns. Any possible escalation of that would be protesters shooting back.
Yes, that would be good for an oppressive state such as this one.Quote:
And
2) Seeing as there is no police force and the state would have no monopoly on violence
Quote:
- wouldn't there be an increase in the rate of armed crime? People without guns rely on the police force to protect them and when the police force is not around to do so those who would have legally obtained weapons would have these people at their mercy.
- No. Simply look at various US states to see that gun ownership doesn't correlate with crime. Or look at Switzerland and Britain.
- Police don't protect people, they go to crime scenes and try to find out who did what.
- Right now the police force is shooting people. People are completely at their mercy ( see Adrian's post). I don't know what you mean about people being at the mercy of those who are not police (or not Baji in Iran) and own guns; are you suggesting that gun owners would go around ordering people without guns to work for them or something? Guns do not transform a normal person into a whacko.
CR
You can count on one thing, armed civilians will be coming forthwith. Iran isn't an Island.
I know that this is your personal view and probably your personal experience as well. Other countries have different expectations when it comes to p'licing. I'm not going to bother you with details about the Dutch police. Suffice it to say they used to have a role similar to that of the British bobby. Nowadays they all want to be stereotype American cops: drive around on cars, intimidate ordinary citizens and chase easy prey before the camera's of the local tv channel. In case of a real emergency they are as strong as the weakest link in the chain, and nowadays that's pretty weak I'm afraid. Still, they have an important part to play in maintaining public order and protecting people from all sorts of harm, not just the criminal type.
Apart from this, I totally agree with your post.It does. In fact, it works so well that considerable foreign armed forces have great trouble keeping order and maintaining the upper hand in those countries.
If the Iranian protesters would have had guns, you can bet your sweet caboose there would have been a recount.
Considering the behavior of the Iranian leadership thus far, the only counting going on would be a body count.
While guns would improve the chance for reform, said reform would be achieved in a revolutionary manner. IE: The Ayatollah gets his head stuck on a pike outside whatever the Iranian equivalent of the Capitol Building is and somebody else holds a new election.
That or whatshisface installs himself as Supreme Peoples Dictator For Life.
True. A pity about your cops.
I don't think it would necessarily be a revolution. The government may have simply backed down and recounted (or counted, really) the votes correctly. They wouldn't want 100,000 angry, armed people in the capital city to start attacking them.Quote:
While guns would improve the chance for reform, said reform would be achieved in a revolutionary manner.
CR
From what I can see, the Iranian government is reacting to the situation the same way Saddam's government reacted to the US invasion of Iraq, namely by plugging their ears and going "LALALALALA THE REVOLUTIONARIES HAVE BEEN DRIVEN INTO THE SEA, THEY WILL NEVER REACH BAGHDA- I MEAN TEHRAN. LALALALALA."
Not EXACTLY the same situation, of course, but things like saying that Neda girl was killed by protesters, calling the protesters 'bad Muslims' and saying they're all American spies...that might work in North Korea, but the Iranian government doesn't have enough information control to make it work there.
And, let's face it, they're basically whipping the horse after leaving the barn door open with a trail of carrots leading out of it. And setting the barn on fire.
Hmmm, the Iranian MPs are not keen on dinnerjacket's victory, either it would seem: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8118783.stm
Didn't you hear? The CIA killed Neda. It's true, I heard it on the teevee.
BLITZER: Are you seriously accusing the CIA of killing Nada?
GHADIRI (through translator): We say that the bullet that was found in her head was not a bullet that you could find in Iran. These are the bullets that the CIA and terrorist groups use. Of course they warned that there would be a bloodshed in these demonstrations and then they could attribute that to the Islamic republic. This is part of a common act of CIA in various countries.
BLITZER: Do you really believe that, Mr. Ambassador? You're a distinguished diplomat representing Iran. This is a very serious accusation that you're making, that the CIA was responsible for killing this beautiful, young woman.
GHADIRI (through translator): I'm not saying that the CIA had done this. There are different groups. Could be intelligence services, could be CIA, could be the terrorists. However, these are the people who do these things. You could ask Mr. Andreotti, who was an Italian diplomat whether Gladitators were a secret group related to CIA or not. Now they of course they use better methods. Of course, you're not going to say that CIA is a sacred organization that hasn't done anything to other worlds.
BLITZER: Mr. Ambassador, why won't your government allow people to go mourn at a memorial service for Nada, as her family has requested?
GHADIRI (through translator): We have no problem with mournings. Naturally we don't want to provide an opportunity for the rioters to come in and make the situation worse.
What is Rafsanjani doing?
Reliable sources in Iran are suggesting that a possible compromise to put an end to the violent uprising that has rocked Iran for the past two weeks may be in the works. I have previously reported that the second most powerful man in Iran, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly of Experts (the body with the power to choose and dismiss the Supreme Leader) is in the city of Qom—the country’s religious center—trying to rally enough votes from his fellow Assembly members to remove the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power. News out of Iran suggests that he may be succeeding. At the very least, it seems he may have gained enough support from the clerical establishment to force a compromise from Khamenei, one that would entail a run-off election between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main reformist rival Mir Hossein Mousavi.
source: http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-a...-to-save-iran/
Classic use of disinformation; the truth value of the statement is not as important as getting the statement out. Interesting to learn that the CIA and terrorists have standard issue ammunition that can be readily identified.
Compromise engineered by Rafsanjani? I wonder if the politics that lead to Khamenei's call for a crackdown can be so easily reversed.
For one thing, the current events in Iran serve to make the Iranian government appear as scared, lying, ridiculous despots.
On another note, I've been rather amused at the Tehran rethoric. They consistently brand their opponents 'terrorists', they clamp down on freedom in the name of fighting terrorism, they conjure up alarmist imagery of 'alien' and 'terrorist' infringement of Iranian homeland security, all with an agressive 'with us or against us' attitude. One wonders where they got the inspiration for their rethoric from.
The upside is that this shows again the extent to which nations not on top look at the one's that are. Many are obsessed by them, frustrated by them. At once, they will clamour for their destruction, challenging them at every opportunity, while simultanously imitating them -usually in a poor, crooked, despotic attempt. The less they succeed in catching up or surpassing them, the more despotic they become, making them less succesful in turn. A dramatic vicious circle.
The Islamism of Iran is not a return to Mediaeval ways as it is sometimes thought, nor a (return to) pure Islam as they portray themselves. It is a modern response to modern challenges.
One also wonders how one can think of the Iranian government as anything but. And don't fall for the political game, especially when played by this particular actor.
I do love the classic CIA and terrorist bullet association. It's a classic!
Yes it certainly would, but damn, have been on liveleak & they're just shooting into crowds. Something has to give one way or another over there, and it doesn't look like the idiot in power is going to make the miniscule concession of putting the moderate hard line party puppet in place of the hard hard line party puppet.
It smacks of a madness induced power trip, what's the difference between a blue M&M & a red one? B'all except the colour, and the twit running the country is sitting there foaming at the mouth screaming "I LIKE BLUE! shoot, batter, lock up anyone who likes red".
What is really making me so :furious3: angry about it all, is the pretence of choice. Why bother! *fill in 46 letter streamed expletives here* Why tell people they have a choice, (however pitiful it is), then insult them with falsification.
What is it that these people want so badly that they're willing to get killed over it?
I am horrified that it may not be much more than wanting to be able to hold hands in public, wear what they want, & be able to vote for who they want.
What's your source?
Well it seems Ayatollah Khatami has been speaking, and saying some wise and calming things. :rolleyes:
Quote:
A hardline cleric close to the Iranian regime demanded the execution of leading demonstrators yesterday as the opposition ended the week in disarray.
In a televised sermon at Friday prayers in Tehran, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami called on the judiciary to “punish leading rioters firmly and without showing any mercy to teach everyone a lesson”. He said that those leaders were backed by the United States and Israel. They should be treated as mohareb — people who wage war against God — and deserved execution.
In a clear warning to all other dissenters, he declared: “Anybody who fights against the Islamic system or the leader of Islamic society, fight him until complete destruction.”
The Ayatollah claimed that Neda Soltan, the woman shot during a demonstration last Saturday, had been killed by fellow protesters because “government forces do not shoot at a lady standing in a side street”.
That's very reassuring.
Fareed Zakaria, probably the smartest commentator on the region, weighs in:
While the regime's legitimacy has cracked -- a fatal wound in the long run -- for now it will probably be able to use its guns and money to consolidate power. And it has plenty of both. [...] The United States has always underestimated the raw power of nationalism across the world, assuming that people will not be taken in by cheap and transparent appeals against foreign domination. But look at what is happening in Iraq, where Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki boasts that U.S. troop withdrawals are a "a heroic repulsion of the foreign occupiers." Of course Maliki would not be in office but for those occupying forces, who protect his government to this day. A canny politician, though, he knows what will appeal to the Iraqi people.
Ahmadinejad is also a politician with considerable mass appeal. He knows that accusing the United States and Britain of interference works in some quarters. Our effort should be to make sure that those accusations seem as loony and baseless as possible.
Yeah, I'm sure Dinnerjacket is having the BBC workers "confessions" of aiding the Brit spies amongst us beaten out of them as we speak. There are plenty who will believe it, unfortunately.
We all love Louis. His comments are always witty and humorous :2thumbsup:. Amazing how intelligent a person has to be to almost always make things so amusing. As my English teacher said, good humour is the sign of high intelligence, and usually the comedians are quite sharp themselves. (unless they have ghost writers :no:)
Cross post.
:laugh4:
I tuaght the forg all he knows!
I wonder where Dâriûsh is in all of this mess.
It was a snipe at Bush.
Why? Because Bush made a mess. Where a clear head and soberness were called for, with his emotional and inflammotory rethoric he manouevred himself in a position of Commander in Chief presiding over a war that led to a torture and rape camp manned by US forces. A disgrace for which he deserves more than a little snide commentary at a games forum.
More important in the current thread, is that I thought there is some irony in the Iranian hardliners taking their cue from Bush, rethorically. The protesters were deemed terrorists, and rights infringed upon to fight these terorists. It is obvious that ten years ago the protesters wouldn't have been labelled terrorists by Tehran.
The protesters would still have been shot and nothing would've been different, but that's not the revealing bit. Revealing is how much the Iranian junta takes its cue not only from the koran, but also from such worldy sources as (opposition to) the US/the UK/the West. It reveals their simultaneous admiration and revulsion of America, the combination of these two which leads to so much frustration. It shows that they do not resent America for what it is, but for the position it has. That of top dog. A position which they themselves covet so much. Etcetera.
It is the tragedy of all fascist ideologies. Which is the ideology of nations that are second rank, but feel they ought to have been top dog. Whether defeated Germany, lagging Russia, or the underdeveloped Islamic world.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull
I always thought he was kinda evil :laugh4::laugh4::laugh4:
Ghost writers? Nah. We don't employ ghost writers.
'We' are a team of some 27 odd reknowned experts posting under the single account of 'Louis' for ease of reference. Our expertises include, but are not limited to, art, history, architecture, international relations, Americanology, biology, European studies, gender studies, human geography, legal history, bluffology and linguistics.
Depending on the topic at hand, the appropriate expert responds. These responses are then edited for readability by our team of novelists and humourists. Or by crazy uncle Pierre Lefou - whom we try to keep away from using this account as much as possible.
My nickname is François Desouche. :book:Quote:
Originally Posted by Prodigal
And well..what can I say? I just speak my mind, which is trained in the world's best schools, and refined by a thousand years of cultural superiority. :beatnik2:
Besides, the Taco tuaght me all I kown. :us-texas:
See? He's French alright.
:laugh4: yeah, there can be no doubt, thousand years of cultural superiority is a clincher :yes:
This may or may not be big, but it certainly shows that the Greens ain't going away, no matter how many students they torture and put on TV to "confess."
The most important group of religious leaders in Iran has called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate, an act of defiance against the country’s supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country’s clerical establishment. [...]
“This crack in the clerical establishment and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic,” said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. “Remember they are going against an election verified and sanctified by Khamenei.”
There is freaky and there is freaky. Not just a power-politician he might just actually believe all that crap.
http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1063353.html
The hammer of god :sweatdrop:
Since we're OOT, I don't see anything wrong with trying to keep american mainstream 'culture' (if by culture, you mean movies made for braindead idiots) out of France. Fast and Furious is crap. Movies with Nicolas Cage are crap. SWAT is crap. Thing is, given the amount of money found in Hollywood, US producers can keep on producing crap and flood the world with it. The ministry support french productions (sometimes good, often crap - Luc Besson produces mostly crap, Taken was crap), and that's about it.
Then again, the ministry of culture has many aims, and 99% of those could hardly be labelled as nationalist. Cultural globalization is happening, it has good and bad effects. Trying to prevent the worst ones is by my standards a good idea.
Back to Iran.
Interesting, but I haven't seen any indications that there is any split between the hardliners and the guys with the guns. If that happens then the 'moderates' may have chance.
I suspect that there must be frantic behind the scenes activity between all the centres of power, but we don't hear about it unless they go public like in this case. Perhaps this will sway others, we will wait and see.
To help jump start this conversation again, here is a recent article I found on reddit.com that might add a little more information to discuss about.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/wo...wt&twt=nytimes
Interesting, it seems somewhat like now that the opposition has shown that it has mass appeal and is committed, the struggle has moved behind the scenes. While the low level people get hauled off, the influential opposition figures have used the number and commitment of the protesters to push their case.
I am not entirely sure that the aims of the protesters and their influential backers are always the same, however. It seemed like many of the protesters wanted more democracy, while their backers may want merely a tweaking of the system.
That's pretty bad record to hold.Quote:
The total moved Iran ahead of China as “the world’s worst jailer of journalists,” the organization said, noting that 24 of the 30 had been jailed since the election.
I know I shouldn't but it seems that something in me forces me to point out hipocrisy whenever I see it...
Link
Protests continue in Tehran.
I'd say that this 'something in you' are the lingering whisperings of Serbian state propaganda about victimization and warmongering, one source of which was targeted in this attack.
Sorry for the dead, they didn't deserve to die. Serbian warmongering, however, did.
Impossible without the backing of some part of the elite. If that elite is subsequently toppled it will be in a bloody purge akin to the Terror. Not something to look foward to.
We must hope a moderate leader will arise from within the establishement to prevent mob-rule.
Nothing new but interesting to watch nonetheless, especially since it is further proof that Iranian chicks are hot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSITy_taD3E