Iranian Elections

[aimlesswanderer]

Interesting, it seems somewhat like now that the opposition has shown that it has mass appeal and is committed, the struggle has moved behind the scenes. While the low level people get hauled off, the influential opposition figures have used the number and commitment of the protesters to push their case.

I am not entirely sure that the aims of the protesters and their influential backers are always the same, however. It seemed like many of the protesters wanted more democracy, while their backers may want merely a tweaking of the system.

[CountArach]

I am not entirely sure that the aims of the protesters and their influential backers are always the same, however. It seemed like many of the protesters wanted more democracy, while their backers may want merely a tweaking of the system.

Yeah that's going to be a problem. But once the protestors get organised and show themselves the leaders will have no choice but to submit to majority will.

[Ice]

The total moved Iran ahead of China as “the world’s worst jailer of journalists,” the organization said, noting that 24 of the 30 had been jailed since the election.

That's pretty bad record to hold.

[Sarmatian]

The total moved Iran ahead of China as “the world’s worst jailer of journalists,” the organization said, noting that 24 of the 30 had been jailed since the election.

That's pretty bad record to hold.

I know I shouldn't but it seems that something in me forces me to point out hipocrisy whenever I see it...

Link

[CountArach]

Protests continue in Tehran.

[Louis VI the Fat]

I know I shouldn't but it seems that something in me forces me to point out hipocrisy whenever I see it...

Link

I'd say that this 'something in you' are the lingering whisperings of Serbian state propaganda about victimization and warmongering, one source of which was targeted in this attack.

Sorry for the dead, they didn't deserve to die. Serbian warmongering, however, did.

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'd say that this 'something in you' are the lingering whisperings of Serbian state propaganda about victimization and warmongering, one source of which was targeted in this attack.

Sorry for the dead, they didn't deserve to die. Serbian warmongering, however, did.

This twist of blue touch paper is a matter for another thread.

Please let's stay on topic, gentlemen.

Thank you kindly.

[Vladimir]

Protests continue in Tehran.

Wow. Thar article makes me so sad.

I wonder how the teleprompter will reply to this.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Yeah that's going to be a problem. But once the protestors get organised and show themselves the leaders will have no choice but to submit to majority will.

Impossible without the backing of some part of the elite. If that elite is subsequently toppled it will be in a bloody purge akin to the Terror. Not something to look foward to.

We must hope a moderate leader will arise from within the establishement to prevent mob-rule.

[Fragony]

Nothing new but interesting to watch nonetheless, especially since it is further proof that Iranian chicks are hot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSITy_taD3E

[Hosakawa Tito]

Go Green!

[Fragony]

Go Green!

Oh yeah. These Iranians there is something about them, we will be best friends one day.

[Hax]

The main slogans were “Baradar’e basiji chera Baradr Koshi” (”Brother basiji, why do you kill your brother?”, the speaker after Rafi was urging people to shout “death to America” and “death to Israel” people responded in mass by shouting “death to Russia” and “death to the dictator”,

Minor update, I think to the liking of Hooahguy.

[Viking]

A funny bit of information:

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to dismiss his choice to serve as vice-president, state TV says.

Appointing Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie was "against your interest and the interests of the government", the ayatollah wrote to Mr Ahmadinejad.

State news agency Irna later reported the dismissal had gone ahead, said AP.

Mr Mashaie had caused controversy in 2008 when he said Iranians were friends with the Israelis.

[...]

Mr Ahmadinejad, who is known for his own outspoken views against Israel, has previously defended Mr Mashaie, calling him modest and loyal to Iran's Islamic system.

[...]

The row over Israel broke out last year when Mr Mashaie, then minister in charge of tourism, was quoted as saying that Iranians were friends with the Israeli people, despite the conflict between their governments.

"Today, Iran is friends with the American and Israeli people," he said, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency. "No nation in the world is our enemy."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8168202.stm

[Fragony]

yay

[Fragony]

This deserves bumpage. Just read something interesting on the weblog of powerpersian Afshin Ellian, looks like the violence is becomming ever more random. We know these people get arrested and murdered, but when the head of intelligence is allowed to pick up his son, obviously tortured to death, things are really falling apart. And he isn't the only high official who can bury what is left of their offspring.

It's in dutch, here is it if you speak it/know translater http://www.elsevier.nl/web/10242035/...inderen-op.htm

[Fragony]

frustrated 28 hours later: why is there so little attention for this, this might be bigger than the wall, the death of the islamic revolution exactly where it started, the mother of fails, who's going to argue with us that western-civilization is the way to go after that. The west MUST speak out it are our natural allies that are being hunted down by these savages and we have so much to gain ie the support of moderate muslims.

[CountArach]

frustrated 28 hours later: why is there so little attention for this, this might be bigger than the wall, the death of the islamic revolution exactly where it started, the mother of fails, who's going to argue with us that western-civilization is the way to go after that. The west MUST speak out it are our natural allies that are being hunted down by these savages and we have so much to gain ie the support of moderate muslims.

I think you misunderstand what is likely to come out of this. If you are hoping for a Secular state... don't.

[Prince Cobra]

frustrated 28 hours later: why is there so little attention for this, this might be bigger than the wall, the death of the islamic revolution exactly where it started, the mother of fails, who's going to argue with us that western-civilization is the way to go after that. The west MUST speak out it are our natural allies that are being hunted down by these savages and we have so much to gain ie the support of moderate muslims.

The West shall be silent. Anything else is a mistake since the officials will put the blame for the protests on the West.

I think you misunderstand what is likely to come out of this. If you are hoping for a Secular state... don't.

I doubt anybody can say what will come out of this.

[Fragony]

If you are hoping for a Secular state... don't.

But I do, and I don't think I am being overly optimistic here. Do you think these guys on the streets are very religious, they don't know anything but religious oppresion. And the 'death to Israel/America' has kinda been replaced by 'shame on Russia/China' when the bearded idiots there are cautiously trying to organise their spontanious protests. The people are taking the streets.

[Cronos Impera]

Frag, you miss a point here.

Iran isn't going to become a Secular state, it is merely changing the clerics in power. Iran allready has an opposition inside the clerical establishment. When the revolution ends, you'll see just another Moeslem claming victory and condemnig the past for not standing to Islamic idelas and becoming degenerate. And the fools will be in the graves and they won't speak.

[Fragony]

Frag, you miss a point here.

Iran isn't going to become a Secular state, it is merely changing the clerics in power.

Not anymore, Mousavi has been forced into a hero's role, no way back for him. Iran is going to be a secular state. Or nothing at all.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Not anymore, Mousavi has been forced into a hero's role, no way back for him. Iran is going to be a secular state. Or nothing at all.

I would share your dream, but it's unrealistic. Mousavi et al are still keen on an Islamic republic, but maybe one that can engage positively with the world rather than view everyone as enemies/satans.

In a way, despite my preference for all states to be secular, it would be a greater triumph for the region to have a pluralist, democratic and Islamic republic - just to show it can be done and provide hope for others.

It would be doubly ironic if this were to develop in Iran, rather than the failing social engineering tried for Iraq.

However, the reality is that we can hope at best for a less belligerent, more outward facing Iran which takes its place as the regional power through engagement rather than nuclear aspirations.

[Fragony]

No it is not unrealistic, Mousavi will have to give them what they want, more freedom and a more relaxed foreign policy, and they are going to make sure he does, and how bad will it be when he turns out to be a dissapointment. He better deliver expectations are rather high.

[CountArach]

No it is not unrealistic, Mousavi will have to give them what they want, more freedom and a more relaxed foreign policy, and they are going to make sure he does, and how bad will it be when he turns out to be a dissapointment. He better deliver expectations are rather high.

Well then that begs the question - how much are the protesters dedicated to Mousavi? If the answer is that they are more devoted to Secularism (As undoubtedly many are) then it will be as you say. However, if the answer is that they are less reformist and not too displeased with the current Constitutional arrangement then they would settle for a reshuffling of the cards so to speak. So we have to think to ourselves about what degree we can assume that the true Secular reformists represent the will of the majority of Iranians.

I can't answer that, and I don't think that anyone can with any degree of certainty.

[Fragony]

It's like Claudius and the praetorians, he has no choice. The Iranians know fully well what a piece of is Moussavi is he's their vessel they made him a hero. It has been set in motion we need to tip it over, or at least let them know we support their cause. And we damn should support their cause if we are to take our values seriously. Russia and China aren't going to be pleased and I know it's very complicated when it comes to international relations, the USA is a lame duck here and it's better if they aren't involved but Europe can make a difference if it speaks out, so does Canada and Australia.

[aimlesswanderer]

I hope that Iran turns into a secular democratic country, but the more realistic outcome would be a similar structure to the current one, but with less religious influence and more democracy. Or it could go the other way and become more autocratic and repressive. Though there may have been much support from protesters, the army, revolutionary guards, police and basij seem to have stayed loyal to the regime, so the opposition doesn't have much of a chance if that doesn't change.

At least the president now seems to be in dispute with the Supreme leader, as that will make it difficult for him to do much, and the opposition may be able to exploit that.

The UK shouldn't be too eager to say much, given past history, and other countries should also be cautious when commenting on the situation. Nothing better to rally support than to have evil outsiders meddling in domestic affairs.

[Fragony]

I hope that Iran turns into a secular democratic country, but the more realistic outcome would be a similar structure to the current one, but with less religious influence and more democracy.

Yes but in the same way as some European country's, Netherlands being one of them, are still monarchies. These beards are going to be on a leash, some religious leaders have given Moussavi their support, beards are in a pretty bad position at the moment, it says something when the authority of the highest religious leader of a country like Iran is being openly challenged. Kinda sceptical about the army and guards have sided with the regime, since the regime has to hire foreign mercenary's to do the bad things, seems to me that army and the guards are deeply devided and using them is a very big risk. I am really confident that this regime is done for, and that if we help the Iranians things will be better, the Iranians are denying the wish for Islamic states with sharia law legitimacy.

[Vladimir]

The only difference between China and Iran, is that Chinese people don't chant "Death to America."

http://www.reuters.com/article/world...090730?sp=true

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The only difference between China and Iran, is that Chinese people don't chant "Death to America."

http://www.reuters.com/article/world...090730?sp=true

Of course they don't, when all of the other cultures around you are barbarians, such actions would be beneath you.