Insightful, decisive analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Whatever.Quote:
If however, you are town, then everything you wrote above applies double to you.
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Insightful, decisive analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Whatever.Quote:
If however, you are town, then everything you wrote above applies double to you.
Don't like criticism? I'm sorry I may have exaggerated to make a point. How about I amend my comment to:Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
If however, you are town then everything you wrote applies at least as much to you. Is that better?
Thing is - you're playing this kind of Mr. Motivator - I hate playing town cause it isn't a team thing, but in my eyes, you've been more misleading (assuming you are town!) than any other townie in the game!
Your sarky comment about my 'Insightful, decisive analysis' was fair enough. Mafia HAVE NOT YET WON, if SalmonSoil WAS mafia :)
If you ARE town, then maybe stop kicking a man when he's down and practice what you is preachin. I just had to kill a man with a Mace for ***** sake! - what did you DO for town daddio?
You seriously believe that the mafia, instead of switching their votes to save themselves, would attempt to commit suicide for no reason at all on a round where, if there are two of them, survival means that they've won the game and no longer have to lie to us.
No offense intended to SalmonSoil, but only a townie would do something so anti-team. It's an honest mistake but the mafia OBVIOUSLY WOULD NOT DO THAT.
No - you're right, it's unlikely, which is why I gave my first response - my insightful analysis - that mafia have this sewn up now irrespective of who they are. I wasn't expecting a critique on that particularly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
I think you're right about the frustrations of being town - I'm still learning and at the moment a terrible townie. I was just taking issue with your lecture, given that you've just switched into a super-townie after being the guy who was spilling wine all over the rug - Don't see the point of that (unless you're mafia :))
If you are - then this is the third game when I've ignored my instincts and backed down when I shouldn't have in the face of a little indignance
If the game is over there's little point to further wailing and gnashing of teeth about it, but statistically we should have lynched a scumbag by now. As such I'm proceeding as if the game is still playing because if it is, this is the only moment we have left to get it right.
As you're talking to me I'm posting an analysis of the remaining players, and I invite folks to join me in that endeavor, as that's far more productive than even my lecturing, which I have a tendency to do.
Starting with Jarema, since that is the direction the murdered dead are pointing in. Plus I tried to lynch him, and perhaps this will illustrate what I'm seeing.
Pregame.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
First vote was on Arjos, an eventual lynchee.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Split, another lynchee.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Riedquat, another lynchee.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Click and read the context, this post pings a bit, in the overacting category.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Jarema joins my accusation on Arjos, another lynchee. So far, he has not voted for anyone who has gotten murdered, which is a bit odd.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
This is in reaction to murdered person pointing the finger at him. And then he votes for me, no explanation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
On the spot, backs off of voting for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Doesn't say what caused his suspicion on me.
Says he's torn between the current candidates, doesn't give a real reason to vote for either one except that Lazy's lynch is more likely to succeed, therefore he's the one who should be lynched.
Jarema's play has been extremely consistent all game long- brief posts, and whoever he votes for usually ends up dead via the lynch, and hasn't voted for a murdered party yet. This could indicate a link between the murders and the lynches; specifically that the people who get murdered are not folks he's trying to get killed via the lynch. That further suggests a strategy of lynching folks that can be lynched, and murdering folks that he's got no direct connection to.
That would be the Mafia ESP theory.
Explanation of Mafia ESP theory:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Why it's relevant here- I see such a pattern emerging from Jarema's votes. I also see that he seems to be particularly unconcerned by who gets lynched in the first place, not moving his vote around much, and that he seems to have no sense of urgency regarding the late rounds of the game, as his contributions to the discussion and depth of his reasoning for voting people have not increased in the slightest.
This is all entirely unfair to Jarema if he's innocent, because this is all circumstantial and coincidental. And if it is, you'd be unable to tell the difference, because it's absolutely identical to the phenomenon I'm referring to.
To give Jarema a fair shake, you'd also have to analyze the other three. But for now, my suspicion on Jarema is still present from the previous round.
I do think that dave has been genuinely inactive, rather than lurking scum, but I would like to point out this post. It strikes me as a bit overly defensive and looping, but in a more townie sloppy kind of way. I feel like a mafia would have structured this post more carefully.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
Its the kind of thing I would post as an innocent, but I can't really be sure what it means without knowing more about dave's play style.
Moving onto DaveShack.
Pregame.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
Votes after almost everyone else has already voted, putting the tally thusly.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
Tally:
Kage (ATPG)
Seon x 2 (Lazy, edse)
Salmon x 2 (Daveshack, Split)
Split x 3 (Kagemusha, Nightbringer, Jarema)
Jarrema (Riedquat)
Atheotes (Arjos)
Nightbringer x 2 (BSmith, Atheotes)
ATPG (Tuuvi)
Daveshack (Salmon)
This puts forward an alternative to Split, who ends up being murdered and is therefore a townie. Unfortunate that it was SalmonSoil, who is about as lock a townie as a lynchee can get due to the previous round.
What is the negative? Nothing striking, but it could indicate a desire to remove someone who voted for you without clearing them as townie, and also, without adding to the Split wagon, which could look scummier.
As such, it's possibly a very smart move by a scum. No firm indication whether it's the innocent or guilty option.
I never really liked the Seon case, he felt like such an easy target.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
I voted for him, sure. I even OMGUS voted him, but when I voted him it wasn't a wagon, and there was no case, and I sure as hell didn't do it for the reasons given in the case. The case was added later, by others, who hopped onto my vote.
If Arjos was guilty, and Dave is guilty, that could explain this tally:
Tally:
2 Arjos (Seon, Salmonsoil)
3 Seon (ATPG, Arjos, DaveShack
2 Nightbringer (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)
Which is how Seon got lynched, Arjos edged out Seon, and Dave is still alive.
That's possible negative points for Arjos, a lynchee who was never proven innocent, and Dave, who was also not proven innocent yet.
One could suggest me and Arjos, which meant I bussed him pretty hardcore. Which I can accept as an option, even though I know it's not what happened. We're looking for possible mafia pairs in the voting record, and if there is a round where the votes are close and it's possible the mafia voted together, this round is still a very real possibility.
This notion I'd like to explore more, because right after this, I made the lynching case FOR Arjos.
This is how they both reacted:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053434135
Arjos' immediate reaction.
Possible he senses that he's going down, immediately distances himself from DaveShack.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjos
DaveShack responds to the distancing maneuver in the expected way: join in on destroying Arjos. Obviously they can't be scum buddies now, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
:laugh4: That doesn't sound the least bit off to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
Dave's big analytical contribution to the game:Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
Jarema and SalmonSoil are mafia together. This is what he's referring to.
This is also something several dead folks have suggested, and I suggested already. Feels a bit late to the party.
Now, in my mind, this partnership has been rendered impossible by the events of the previous round. but Dave was on the wagon in agreement with it's likelihood of being true. I pointed out how it's probably completely false.
I'd agree with you on that.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
You and most people are deliberately avoiding the "who is my mafia partner" discussion. Except I cheekily welcomed it earlier on this game. :grin:
But this comment feels a bit self-conscious.
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053435524
Here, Dave is still under absolutely no real pressure and is able to freely and more aggressively attack some of the remaining suspects on the final rounds of the game, with impunity.
Which is what he should do if he's scum. Or if he's townie... :no:
I get a slight ping off this post due to what I've noticed about the way mafia "act" as townies... instead of trying to convey emotion or ignorance, they simply state it for the record like a bad actor.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
"I am angry right now. Look at my angry smiley faces I'm posting."
"I have no idea who is guilty."
That sort of thing. There's a hint of that here.
Overall-
DaveShack is a very experienced mafia player who hails from another forum. While you can get scummy leans on posts from virtually any post in a game from any player if you try hard enough, not much Dave has done provokes a very strong "gosh that's scummy" reaction from me.
Which might be the whole point behind his play. If I'm a damned good mafia player I would do a lot of what DaveShack has done to avoid certain tells.
If looked at through goggles which color him completely guilty, ignoring the lack of scum tells, you could see a lot of what his strategy is, you might even assume he was mafia with Arjos. That would explain a lot of his interaction with Arjos, and a lot about where we stand right now. I, for example, haven't found Dave that scummy and I have found lots of others scummy. That would explain my continued existence.
There's a lot that can be found if you force yourself to view him as guilty and look at all evidence as incriminating. But do I really think he's guilty?
If he is, he deserves the win. He's certainly outplayed us. Jarema still pings me a lot harder than Dave does.
Analysis of Lazy will take longer due to the fact that he's posted three times more than the others.
I may have to just cut out some of the posts that I feel are unrelated to the game itself and have no lean either way.
Ok cool - I'll do you then. Woo! Go Team!Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
Here it is, LazyMcCrow.
After this, I'm going to bed because I have to be at work, on my day off, at 11am. After being at work today on my other day off.
Interesting point- Lazy had been the alternative on the first round, where they were tied. He edged out in a duel and hasn't died since.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
A bit odd that he was never resolved by lynch or murder after that tie. I completely spaced that.
Hmm.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Why vote W_E when you seem to want to watch a duel, and just posted that the tally was tied without said vote?Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Fair enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
It should be evident that nobody takes Monty's wackiness very seriously, so if Lazy is scum, this is pretense disguised as townie reaction.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Great, Pizzaguy. The question is, is it pretense or is it townie reaction? Good job. Have a medal, you analytical whiz kid.
Good point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat
Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Note to self: Lazy is reading the writeups closely. I admit that besides the paper cut one, I haven't actually gone back to read Visor's updates because they were done too long after the fact.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
This is perhaps the post which sent me off the deep end regarding Lazy. This, unlike most of the other posts I've analyzed from Lazy (or Dave, or anyone else for that matter) is the one post of the game which reads horrendously scummy all by itself. In the blistering red category.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
This was obviously slapped together with no serious analysis being attempted. Coupled with the previous post, it just chokes of fakeness.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Well, that theory is provably wrong due to the fact that Dave and I are both still alive.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Where is the serious attempt to find my mafia partner if I'm mafia? Who is my scum buddy? I want to know.
I just don't get a whole lot of serious analysis by Lazy, even though he's posting up a storm.
"Thanks for doing the work for me" post.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
This post is jarring in its strangeness.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Lazy, I haven't been in oodles of games with you, even though we've worked together closely, you're still a strange cat dude.
It feels like you're waiting for me to win the game for you, which is bad townie play, or hoping I'll make a bad case on a townie and win the game for you as mafia, which is good mafia play. I don't like this post.
Snuggles Daveshack, and bounces suspicion back onto Salmon, who seems pretty damned townie to me now.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Salmon and Jarema as scum is a theory I think we can reject as totally false, and Dave and Pizza is also false due to the game continuing.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
This is a problem because these are the only two theories Lazy has explored, which means he's at best a sloppy townie who isn't leading us to victory, but since he's never struck me as a bad player, that paints the conspicuous absence of the real deal on his list of the "only" options remaining.
If you're a townie you can at least list all the remaining possibilities and be correct that one of them is true. Lazy's uncharacteristically well... lazy analysis seems to be deliberately omitting the truth from the list of possibilities. That's not good.
Lazy has now won two duels, meaning he's survived two attempts by the town to rid him of the game.
This post is really the cream of the bad crop. This post contains defeatism, which I absolutely despise, followed by a hollow attempt to turn my own words at me. He doesn't even explain how I've been a bad teammate, just says that I am when I accuse others of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Maybe it wasn't very diplomatic of me to state my feelings for the record, but Lazy is jumping on it in a way that does not feel natural. That plus the wrong suspicions he's posted plus his two lynch survivals....
I took Dave and Lazy off my top list of suspects, and put Salmon and Jarema there. But as the game develops we learn new things and read things with a better perspective with the most possible knowledge.
Jarema's play strikes me, but Lazy is actually right up there with Jarema, or worse. I can't agree with my earlier assessment of him as probably townie.
I don't know if he's being a bad townie or a good mafioso, but I'm finding it distressing that he's still alive and that he's putting forward what he has been putting forward as his suspicions.
Conclusions:
- Lazy or Jarema, the events of tonight might help me assess a lean on which is worse. Maybe.
- Dave is less suspicious than the other two, and if Dave is mafia, we are completely boned because it's me and Lazy and Jarema as townies and we all pretty much find dave innocent and each other to be scum. Plus I'm still alive and that means I'm the default lynch for tomorrow.
Lazy if you're townie, you honestly do need to get a grip on yourself. You're acting way worse than you usually do and I can't explain why without going to the possibility of your scummitude.
What is your explanation for all this bad behavior?
You'll do me? Don't tease me like that. Pizza demands satisfaction, and I'm not sure you have what I need.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Your analysis of me had better be good, because my main criticism of you is that your analysis so far has been LazyMcSuckage. :wink:
The unfortunate and correct answer in this case is: That I am not a very helpful, incisive or perceptive townieQuote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
As you can judge quite easily by my sloppy analysis of your good self.
Posts 1 - 4:
Joking. Singles out Kage as target. 'Pre-emptive' vote on Monty
Jocular mood. praises Kages sexiness. Complains about papercuts
Refers to other sites in which he is also not contributing very well to justify absence and 'super-business'
Post 119: Admits to being mafia
I don't even lurk as townie. And I've tried a couple times. It's far too lame, I can't sustain it.
Jokes about being a meta-gamer
Post 127
Throws an accusation at his scum-buddy SalmonSoil after which they flirt outrageously:
'Member thankful for this post: Askthepizzaguy ' etc.
Claims Sheriff (albeit - of 'Shagtown')
Points out how Monty sounds mental. Becomes more active as the herd thins Then gets super-townie. Suspicions of pizza start getting flung up in the air
Spends the next 10 or so posts liberally sprinkling wine over everyones prom dresses, before bemoaning the fact that eveyone will probably jump on him in the morning - he KNOWS HE WILL BE ALIVE.
Goes into super-townie mode.
The present.
So - just to be clear: Kill me tonight or I will vote for you tomorrow.
Well, if I was gonna be murdered, it would have happened by now, wouldn't it? Obviously someone likes me for the lynch, which is why I find the folks who have tested the waters regarding my lynch and then pulled back when it didn't seem likely to happen, the most likely candidates for scum at the moment. Because that would indicate that your plan is to get me lynched, but if you can't do it, you can always save me for the next round and try someone else on for size.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Which means it's not real suspicion, is it? But suspicion that is convenient and also dependent on the likelihood of me being lynched.
You're the boss.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Sure. Let's just see. I was assuming that it was game over - I still think it probably is - but if it isn't and that means there is only one mafia left, then I'm happy to bet that its you.
Ok
I will try to answer why I play how I play
firtst, I am never a good player. I never do much analysis, I am weak at hunting scum. I know it, I try a bit to get better, but I am not a good mafia player. But this applies to my every game, and in this one, my level of meaningful activity was really low.
This is mostly because I do not have much time due to RL issues. Of course, if I was mafia I would say exactly that if I wanted to explain my behavior. The second thing is, that my activity is always lower in games without aligment reveal on death - for some reason, I feel realy overwhelmed by it (probably because I do not know if any of my earlier guessess were correct, and it feels like if the game were getting more and more complicated from day to day; opposite of how it feels for me in games with reveal on death - I understand that is not true, and that there is more and more information to analyze, but I cannot help starting feeling helpless). I think that only mafia games without reveal on death were I was more active, were the ones where I was a scum - with the single exeption of Road to Hell game, where I tried to guess something about special mechanics of game.
MNy thoughts for now:
As for Pizza: if he is alive so long, then either he is mafia, or he served mafia well with his suspects. A lot of people, when playing mafia, is affraid of him - when I was mafia on civfanatics not long ago, my scum buddies were trtying to persuade me into shooting ATPG almost at every night, and each night we evaluated if it is not too risky to let him stay alive one day longer.
The response to your comments about not being a good player is the following game:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=451450
Here you were scum, and survived to the end with very little suspicion on you the whole way through. Lots of analysis was done, so it is not like you weren’t looked at closely either. I’d say you are a better player than you give yourself credit for.
Regarding Pizza – when I am mafia I like to keep him around longer – especially in games where the dead can still talk. A dead Pizza (especially if night killed) is usually an innocent Pizza, and that makes people listen to him even more. He almost becomes more dangerous to you dead than alive. Keep him around and you’ll inevitably get the “if Pizza is alive he must be scum” discussion going, and it is not too hard to push attention towards him and away from you and your scum buddies.
EDIT: Of course now I am going to have to kill you early on, Pizza, the next time I am mafia. :bow:
Lazy has been killed. Begin... the final day.
Round may be extended if you want or require.
Alive 3/17:
8. Jarrema
9. DaveShack
12. Askthepizzaguy
Dead 14/17:
5. Monty: Lynched Day 1
15. Lewwyn: Killed Night 1
14. Splitpersonality: Lynched Day 2
10. Tuuvi: Killed Night 2
3. Riedquat: Lynched Day 3
13. White_Eyes:D: Killed Night 3
11. Kagemusha: Lynched Day 4
6. Atheotes: Killed Night 4
17. Seon: Lynched Day 5
7. Nightbringer: Killed Night 5
4. Arjos: Lynched Day 6
16. BSmith: Killed Night 6
1. SalmonSoil: Lynched Day 7
2. LazyMcCrow: Killed Night 7
Game is still going, so it looks like only one of you is scum.
Thanks to Nightbringer for the early round tally summary, which I shamelessly copied.
Day 1:
Monty: 2 (ATPG, Tuuvi)
ATPG: 1 (split)
Nightbringer: 1 (Monty)
White Eyes: 1 (Lazy)
Lewwyn: 1 (Salmonsoil)
Split: 1 (Arjos)
Lazy: 2 (Bsmith, Nightbringer)
Atheotes: 1 (Riedquat)
Salmonsoil: 1 (Lewwyn)
Arjos: 1 (Jarrema)
Day 2:
Tally:
Kage: 1 (ATPG)
Seon: 2 (Lazy, edse)
Salmon: 2 (Daveshack, Split)
Split: 3 (Kagemusha, Jarema, Nightbringer)
Jarrema: 1 (Riedquat)
Atheotes: 1 (Arjos)
Nightbringer: 2 (BSmith, Atheotes)
ATPG: 1 (Tuuvi)
Daveshack: 1 (Salmon)
Day 3:
White_Eyes:D: 4 (edse, Arjos, atheotes, LazyMcCrow)
Riedquat: 4 (Seon, SalmonSoil, Jarema, White_Eyes:D)
Nightbringer: 1 (Riedquat)
atheotes: 1 (Nightbringer)
Day 4:
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)
Kagemusha: 3 (Arjos, Seon, atheotos)
Day 5:
Tally:
Arjos: 2 (Seon, Salmonsoil)
Seon: 3 (ATPG, Arjos, DaveShack
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)
Currently:
Alive 8/17:
1. SalmonSoil
2. LazyMcCrow
4. Arjos
7. Nightbringer
8. Jarrema
9. DaveShack
12. Askthepizzaguy
16. BSmith
Dead 8/17:
5. Monty: Lynched Day 1
15. Lewwyn: Killed Night 1
14. Splitpersonality: Lynched Day 2
10. Tuuvi: Killed Night 2
3. Riedquat: Lynched Day 3
13. White_Eyes:D: Killed Night 3
11. Kagemusha: Lynched Day 4
6. Atheotes: Killed Night 4
17. Seon: Lynched Day 5
Night 5 -- Nightbringer killed
Day 6:
Arjos lynched
Arjos - Pizza, Jarema, DaveShack
DaveShack - Arjos
ATPG - Salmon, Lazy
Night 6:
BSMith killed
Day 7:
Salmon - ATPG, Lazy
Lazy - Salmon, DaveShack
ATPG - Jarema
Salmon lynched
Night 7: Lazy killed
Final analysis:
Jarema vs Dave+ATPG+Lazy : no win situation
Dave vs ATPG+Lazy+Jarema : can kill either Lazy or ATPG and Jarema will vote for the other
ATPG vs Dave+Lazy+Jarema : kill Lazy, Dave certain to vote for Jarema. Kill Jarema, Dave possible vote for Lazy
Potential buddies: Monty, Split, Riedquat, Kagemusha, Seon, Arjos, Salmon
ATPG: Y, N, N, N, Y, Y, Y
Jarema: N, Y, Y, N, N, Y, N
Dave: N, N, N, N, Y, Y, N
Salmon:
ATPG couldn't be bussing Salmon, because lynching Lazy wins the game if two mafia alive
Jarema could have made a true mistake, and Salmon + Jarema would still be possible.
I almost changed my vote to him, but almost doesn't count. Could be partner.
Arjos:
They both voted for Arjos, and the very first vote in a phase is far too risky. Arjos is not the partner.
Pizza gets a possible scumtell for leading off the wagon since Arjos seems to be innocent
Dave 3rd vote, could be a bus but there was an alternative, not likely
Seon:
ATPG votes first again. It's a OMGUS and could pass for such.
Jarema didn't vote, or even post this round from the looks of it.
Dave voted
Kagemusha:
Neither one voted in the round but not likely to be ATPG's partner. Could be Jarema's.
Dave missed vote, could be partner
Riedquat:
Jarema Voted 3rd, but there was a clear alternative in White_eyes:D Not likely to be partner
ATPG did not vote in the round
Dave missed vote, could be partner
Split:
Jarema voted 2nd, unlikely partner
ATPG voted for Kagemusha, possible very safe bus depending on where in round -- nope, 1st vote again
Dave voted with split against Salmon. Unlikely for partners to vote together this early with such low totals.
Monty:
ATPG voted first again. Not partner
Jarema voted for Arjos. Could be partner.
Dave voted for someone else Could be partner.
Jarema possible partners: Monty, Kagemusha, Seon, Salmon (if a huge mistake was made)
ATPG possible partners: Split, Riedquat, Kagemusha (extremely risky day2, possible bus by not saving)
Dave possible partners: Monty, Riedquat, Kagemusha, Salmon
I still assert I'm townie, of course. If I were mafia, Riedquat would be the most likely partner, as I wouldn't make the mistake of voting with my partner Split on round 2, I could have saved Kagemusha, and Salmon was going down if he won the duel.
For Jarema, Seon sticks out as a likely partner. Salmon is a possibility if the failure to unvote was an honest mistake.
For ATPG, either Split or Riedquat are possibles. ATPG stands out as having been the very first to vote in many rounds. I called him out on the "mafia playing as super-townie" role and he admitted that this is one way he plays.
Still a hard choice. Comments?
Good analysis dave. I have been thinking things over today and am feeling a bit more suspicious of ATPG than I had before. If you look at his round to round accusations, for the last few rounds he has made a strong case against a different person each round, and has been throwing accusations all over the place. I feel like this might have helped lead to a state of affairs where the town is having a hard time working together, as it has.
I can believe that ATPG might pull something like this off as mafia. Going all in and throwing out cases on people as much as possible in order to overwhelm everyone with targets. What do you guys think?
Town thought it was game over yesterday with two mafia left. I was allowed to kill SalmonSoil (the other scum) because I got lucky / it kept the game going. The only person who has been cranking the activity up because it was still all to play for is ATPG - who is your scum.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I think your odds of hitting scum will improve if you discard the tempting Pizzaguy as an option.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I didn't wait until this final day round to post an analysis or my suspects, because I have not been trying to win on the final round of the game, I've been trying to lynch the scum before this round, giving reasons why people are or are not townie, and doing my best to organize some sort of final resistance.
It is not at all advantageous to me to start pointing fingers at anyone last night where the scum can nightkill my top suspect and prove me wrong immediately. I have better strategic sense than that if my goal is to stay alive. My goal hasn't been to stay alive, it has been to correctly lynch someone.
Serious analysis of my play will lead you to the correct conclusion.
My analysis of the game from last night still stands. I would like to know where Dave and Jarema stand on who their top suspect is, before I place my final verdict.
Jarema, you're still my lead suspect. Why is Dave scum?
Dave, if it is not Jarema it is you. Why is Jarema scum?
Triple post-
Feel free to ask me the same question, however I'll point out that I've already answered it with my analysis of the game. I ask you both to do the same.
Vote: ATPG
Feel free to convince me that Dave is scum, not you.
Wait...
no...
You won't do that :)
you already gave up on trying to convince me and you are concentrating your mafia efforts on Dave, yes?
Well said.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Final round with ATPG?
TAKE THE SHOT
Wow... Yesterday Pizza convinced me Lazy was scum... now I don't know who is who...:inquisitive:
:2thumbsup:Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
If he is guilty, it won't really matter at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
That just leaves Dave. If my original guess was correct, and Jarema is scum, it's up to you now. If you're guilty you win regardless.
Still nothing.
All right, will go over this one one more time.
D1 Jarema votes, Dave does not.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
Jarema's vote is a one-off and does not decide between the two candidates.
D2, they both vote.Quote:
Day 2:
Tally:
Kage: 1 (ATPG)
Seon: 2 (Lazy, edse)
Salmon: 2 (Daveshack, Split)
Split: 3 (Kagemusha, Jarema, Nightbringer)
Jarrema: 1 (Riedquat)
Atheotes: 1 (Arjos)
Nightbringer: 2 (BSmith, Atheotes)
ATPG: 1 (Tuuvi)
Daveshack: 1 (Salmon)
Jarema lynches Split over Seon or Nightbringer or SalmonSoil, possibly indicating a preference/partnership since this vote is more decisive.
DaveShack votes Salmon.
D3, Dave doesn't vote, Jarema ties Riedquat with W_E.Quote:
Day 3:
White_Eyes:D: 4 (edse, Arjos, atheotes, LazyMcCrow)
Riedquat: 4 (Seon, SalmonSoil, Jarema, White_Eyes:D)
Nightbringer: 1 (Riedquat)
atheotes: 1 (Nightbringer)
If Dave were guilty it would be unlikely that Riedquat would be.
D4, neither Dave, nor Jarema, nor even myself, votes.Quote:
Day 4:
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)
Kagemusha: 3 (Arjos, Seon, atheotos)
Kagemusha is lynched by one vote. NB was murdered, nobody remaining reacts to Kage's death. Kagemusha is likely innocent and the mafia had no reaction to his death.
D5, Dave puts the lynch to Seon. Jarema has no opinion.Quote:
Day 5:
Tally:
Arjos: 2 (Seon, Salmonsoil)
Seon: 3 (ATPG, Arjos, DaveShack
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)
So far, Jarema's only truly decisive opinion has been the D2 lynch over Seon or Nightbringer or SalmonSoil.
Salmon seems innocent, NB is proven so.
It is possible, therefore, that Dave and myself actually lynched the scum on this day. It's possible Jarema did not want to spare Seon twice, as that creates a voting pattern.
D6- also possible that Arjos was guilty, distancing from Dave. However, Dave could have just lynched me instead, rendering this highly unlikely.Quote:
Day 6:
Arjos - Pizza, Jarema, DaveShack
DaveShack - Arjos
ATPG - Salmon, Lazy
I generally rule out Arjos as mafia here. The guilty party did indeed want him dead.
Neither Lazy nor Salmon was guilty. However, myself and Dave seem to be attempting to lynch one of them.Quote:
Day 7:
Salmon - ATPG, Lazy
Lazy - Salmon, DaveShack
ATPG - Jarema
Salmon lynched
Jarema on the other hand is indecisive.
My final analysis of the game on DaveShack and Jarema-
1) Jarema's vote only makes a difference in the outcome on the following rounds: Day 2 and Day 6. D2 was Split, D6 was Arjos. Arjos seems unlikely to be mafia. Possible that Split was mafia, but neither myself nor DaveShack made any attempt to tie the vote and make him survive, and I don't believe Jarema was bussing. As such, I believe that Jarema did not lynch any mafia this game.
2) DaveShack decides Seon, Arjos, and Lazy. If DaveShack is guilty, none of those are likely to be mafia. Lazy is not mafia, and Arjos is unlikely to be mafia at all. However, Seon was never ruled out as mafia.
As for myself, I decided on Monty, Seon, Arjos, and Salmon for the lynch. Only Arjos seems clear, so it's very likely I lynched the mafia.
I do not believe it was SalmonSoil, and I do not believe it was Arjos. Monty has been especially terrible this game, but I don't know if that makes him mafia. Plus, if I lynched Monty day 1 and he was guilty, why didn't I get murdered soon after?
That leads me back to Seon.
DaveShack and I lynched Seon, and Seon appears most likely to have been the guilty party we successfully lynched.
Since he's voting incorrectly now, and lynched no scums...
In the final analysis, Jarema is the weakest link. Good-bye.
Vote: Jarema
Working on the assumption Seon is guilty, it's worth a double-check as to his contributions to the game as well.
Easy enough, as he only has five posts.
Pregame.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seon
More evidence that Reidquat was innocent. Check out Seon's reasoning for this vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seon
Does this line smack of trying a bit too hard to slam Reidquat?
"defending someone who's trying to avoid a WoG and voting someone for voting in an OMGUS fashion, two sure signs of a thinking, plotting mafiosi"
Thinking, plotting mafiosi.
I didn't go after White_Eyes for his Wog-avoiding, and I OMGUS voted Seon. How does he react later, to the very same behavior he finds so scummy? With the opposite reaction as he does here.
Scumusha.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seon
Incorrect Seon, he's Sexymusha.
Honesty, you want me lynched, don't you? But at the same time, Seon, I believe you would be exactly that ballsy as to leave me alive all game. You are just as bad as me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seon
If it were just Jarema on that team, I doubt I'd be here, but you... you are exactly the kind of slimeball who would use me as bait.
Final contribution to the game, jumping off of me with reasoning that shows he knows I'm innocent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seon
Seon pushes Arjos, but I think Arjos was innocent. In similar fashion to his previous posts, he globs on the "they're so scummy" paint on his paintbrush and smears Arjos as hard as he can.
I don't believe Seon was innocent, and I believe his being guilty completely explains both the violence in the writeups and my continued survival.
Seon and Jarema are guilty, and the trademark over-the-top violence that you'll find in the writeups points directly at Askthepizzaguy. It's all a game of WIFOM, a game that Seon plays nearly as well as I do. :wink:
That's game, set, match.
:bow:
I do believe Lazy owes me an apology.
Oh, also:
If I'm correct that means I voted for both mafiosi using the tried and true, tested and proven, method of scum finding: OMGUS voting.
Do you guys remember the Buffy game where I annihilated most of the scum, as a vigilante, simply by destroying the folks who voted me?
This is that. OMGUS is not scummy, it is the single most townie move of all time. If that isn't clear by now, it never will be.
All nice and good but I do not understand the part about your survival...
Conventional wisdom in a mafia game is to have Pizza lynched or murdered; the mafia will attempt to do one or the other because I am often successful in getting who I want lynched, lynched. If I'm townie then the odds are, I will accuse a mafia correctly and get them lynched at some point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat
However, the conventional wisdom does not always apply:
1) Games with no reveal upon death means that I can't prove that I lynched a scum correctly. Which means I'm less dangerous to the mafia.
2) The longer I am left alive in a vanilla game, the more tempting I become as a lynch. Several mafiosi have successfully gotten me lynched in all-vanilla games, even recently. Games where neither scum ever got lynched. And since I am not proven innocent upon lynch, I generally give up and can't get my suspects dead.
Mafia X, Byzantium's Twilight, just to name two off the top of my head.
I am far less effective in vanilla no-reveal games because there is no protown network, and no way to prove my innocence, and I am always considered likely to be guilty, even though statistically, I am mafia roughly one out of ten games.
I'm also suggesting that the mafia team here thinks unconventionally, since it likely includes Seon as a member. The strategic thinking of that team is likely coming from him, and this game has Seon written all over it.
"Why are all the lynch bait being murdered?"
It's fricking Seon, that's why. Because he does things specifically to :daisy: with everyone.
Contrariwise, look at the recent no-reveal games where I get murdered.
That's when I can generally prove or strongly indicate my innocence, and I fight back with impunity post-death.
The Island: I correctly nail the remaining scum.
Three Wolf Moon: I correctly nail the remaining scum.
The Mafia's comeback: I correctly nail the remaining scum.
Games where the mafia don't murder me in no-reveal vanilla games, are games where they generally do a whole lot better, often winning without a single loss. They nearly won the Campground game too, we only lynched the scums correctly and consecutively on the final two rounds, and I was the alternative lynch both times.
Mafia look at Pizza in vanilla games and go: A lynch bait is you!
And that's precisely the correct play. I've been the subject of more discussion and been accused more often than any other player in the game. The reason is simple:
I am Askthepizzaguy, and so can you.
https://i205.photobucket.com/albums/...IamAmerica.png
:laugh4:
Thank you for such detailed explanation
I've been told frequently and by many players I respect that I often talk too much in mafia games. I try to reserve my boisterous verbosity for times when folks actually ask me a question, but it's hard.
@DaveShack,
for what its worth, my final recommendation is to vote jarema. There is part of a case to be made against ATPG, but I personally find the one against jarema much stronger, and ATPG has done a few things that seem distinctly unlikely for a mafia, even an ATPG mafia, to do.
You talk to much! But that is what makes you who you are ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
+1Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
Seriously, you've been mentioned once and because you weren't being yourself XDQuote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
After that you started cases etc on your own :P
Wrong thread.
Carry on...
An interesting quandry. ATPG is acting too townie to be townie, and Jarema is acting too scum to be scum. :dizzy2:
I have resolved not to resort to the executive decision maker (aka dartboard). Just letting my thoughts settle.
If ATPG is mafia, he's exceeded my wildest expectations of being able to pull off the townie gambit.
If Jarema is mafia, he went all-in on a pair of 3's by killing Lazy, hoping I'd think ATPG was too townie so he has to be mafia. But maybe I forced his hand with the post-phase talk that I thought Lazy was a wrong lynch.
That settles it, Vote: Jarema.
If ATPG is mafia this goes down as the best performance I've ever witnessed.
I have feeling of deja vu.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
This situation happens again, and again, and again.
I want to remind words of Choxorn (abut ATPG's performance in 'Paired Mafia') to you:Of course, ATPG was mafia.Quote:
If you're mafia, I upgrade the status of your genitalia from "Diamonds" to "The Crystals used in Lightsabers."
DO NOT PLAY WITH HIS CRYSTALS
Of course, it can turn out that you are mafia, Dave, and then I will be surprised. Anyway, town lost
Defeatism, you scumbag! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Makes no sense but still seems epic....you are a pleasure to watch Pizzaguy.:laugh4:Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
If your mafia Pizzaguy...I don't think you needed this much effort to win. Your kill choices were very well chosen and ATPG-lynch bait is never lynched until it's too late. If your town, you win a cookie and another "White_eyes:D is wrong rant".:grin2:
White_eyes, you know I think you're one of the most entertaining players out there, and... well, let me put it this way.
I would rather play a game with you, every game, and have you believe I am mafia each time, than to not play with you at all. ~:grouphug: When you're not thinking I'm scum, you often see things that no other player sees, because you have a very unique perspective on things. Frankly, the time you got it right about me and defended my innocence to folks who thought I was a Machiavellian slime-o, in Capo III, helping us not only win but win in devastating fashion, is the one right answer I'll never forget and it erases all the wrongs.
Lynch writeup tomorrow and night phase ends the day after. Real life reasons.
Begin... the final night.
Alive 2/17:
9. DaveShack
12. Askthepizzaguy
Dead 15/17:
5. Monty: Lynched Day 1
15. Lewwyn: Killed Night 1
14. Splitpersonality: Lynched Day 2
10. Tuuvi: Killed Night 2
3. Riedquat: Lynched Day 3
13. White_Eyes:D: Killed Night 3
11. Kagemusha: Lynched Day 4
6. Atheotes: Killed Night 4
17. Seon: Lynched Day 5
7. Nightbringer: Killed Night 5
4. Arjos: Lynched Day 6
16. BSmith: Killed Night 6
1. SalmonSoil: Lynched Day 7
2. LazyMcCrow: Killed Night 7
lololololol :laugh4:
Oh, :daisy:
I'm officially confused. Does this mean the game will end with a fight to the death or something? Or a deader isn't really dead? Because normally if the last mafia is lynched the game is over, and if not lynched then the last townie gets autokilled.
Mmmmm suspense
You're either being very coy about your astounding win, or we will both wake up alive.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveShack
I'm not about to kill you tonight, Dave. So if you're innocent, it will be the law offices of Dave and Shack, and their favorite client Pizzadude, celebrating victory in the morning.
If you're guilty though, you basically avoided everyone's radar all game. Kudos and congrats on that.
I'm drinking, no write up tonight.
OMG
I am so confused.
I was truly innocent. If you are not mafia, Pizza, I do not know what is happening. If you both wake up at morning... well, I would not understand why the last day happened. My best guess then would be that we were playing a game without mafia (??), and/or that host is the killer
If you're innocent and I'm innocent, you think the game was a setup, before thinking Dave was guilty?
Man, we got beat hard.
There really wasn't a chance in hell of you voting Dave on that last round, was there?
No. But his post after night begins sounds as innocent one to me...Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
A small one? I believed truly that you are mafia. If anything, words of Dave could change my mind; or opinions of people already dead. Your arguments could not make me believe you at that moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
I am too out of it to write something Okay guys
one sentence of info?
Yes, Visor. Go enjoy yourself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Visorslash
Dave isn't a long poster, and he's too experienced to say anything that incriminating in a vanilla game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
You can't read his p-p-p-poker face. Waiting for Dave to slip up before suspecting him is not wise.
I saw things, but you always looked scummier to me than him.
Thank you. I am. Its funyQuote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
Have the mafia been dead for days?
You WERE acting completely off, Lazy mah boy. I FOS you for being dead and suggesting this.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Udon;y kniow?
Here you go.Quote:
Originally Posted by Visorslash
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...nkards-tThread
Those mean sober people won't bother you annnnny more.
Thanks yuoul,.
Drums spectral fingers against Visorslashs' clammy forehead
I'm fine now, writeup incoming. Probably going to take ages though. That was a fun night.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
Quote:
Originally Posted by Visorslash
:no: We're doomed.
I'm still expecting you to say 'Haha! I was mafiyar!'Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
But I guess that's just my way of postponing the apology I feel I probably owe you :shame:
You know guys, I'm one of the most talkative players with a long history of being mafia or townie.Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyMcCrow
I wonder, am I really that hard to read? Because you guys seem to get it backwards way more often than what I consider the norm. I give you plenty of information to go off of, you know where I stand on any given player for most of the game. There are games like the Campground or Trouble in Waiting where the living AND the dead are both screaming bloody murder for my head, and I'm a townie. Then I go through entire other games without much suspicion, being a dirtbag mafioso.
Do I post too much for serious analysis of my play to be done? Too much to read, so nobody wants to try to sit back and analyze it? Or do they do the analysis and it just comes up with an inaccurate result over and over?
I'm just curious, not ranting or anything.
There weren’t many men left in the town now. It was small to begin with, but it was almost a ghost town now. Still they continued to kill each other off, in hope that they would get lucky and end this horrible saga once and for all. After an intense period of debate, the remaining few members of the town chose LazyMcCrow and SalmonSoil to duel to the death for their freedom. They were offered three weapons each, Lazy choosing the signpost, and Salmon choosing the whip.
They were corralled into the centre of town, passing the corpse of the state troopers and Sheriff Seon. The crowd was a lot more solemn then they were the first time they had a duel and Lazy still had nightmares of his first run in with the duelling arena. He shuddered at the thought of it, and brought up his signpost ready for another battle. Salmon had a mad glint in his eyes as he cracked the whip menacingly. Without a sound he lunged at Crow, the whip snapping against the signpost, ironically a stop sign that he only just got up in time. Salmon spun round and the whip followed lashing against Crow’s right leg which led him to gasp in pain and drop to one knee. Salmon, trying to push the advantage, swung down with all his might in an attempt to break Crow, but he was expecting it, and simply rolled out of the way and smashed the sign on the whip, cutting the top part off.
Salmon growled and advanced again, this time Crow fought back, first knocking the whip out of its swing and then closing in to dig the end into Salmon’s gut. He was propelled backward and fell onto his back. Lazy went to seal the deal but Salmon would not give up. The whip struck Lazy’s face causing him to scream as the whip left scar marks, the signpost falling to the ground. Lazy dived onto the whip and began to wrestle over it with Salmon, eventually pulling it free, only to let Salmon grab the signpost.
In opposite situations this time, the murderous glint was back in Salmon’s eye. He began to grin wildly and advance once more on Lazy. He swung the whip at the ground near Salmon, causing him to flinch. Lazy looked around him and saw another weapon grouping; he began to get an idea in his head. Salmon continued his advance, undeterred. Lazy waited until he was in striking distance, and turned, flicking the whip at the weapons, pulling a mace and sword into the ring. The crowd gasped, entranced at this dance of death. Salmon threw the signpost to the ground and ran over to the sword, while Lazy picked up the mace.
With a roar, Lazy charged Salmon with his new weapon the two weapons clashed as the men traded blows, they were an even match. The fight went on for minutes that seemed like hours, as they perfectly countered each other’s blows and strikes, neither one getting an advantage over the other. Lazy broke away, back heaving hard as sweat poured down his face. Salmon was in a similar situation. Salmon was the first to recover, brandishing his sword he lunged at Lazy, who turned the thrust and elbowed Salmon in the head. Pivoting, he brought the mace on his shoulder and as Salmon dropped to the ground, Lazy knew it was over. He went to deliver the finishing blow, when he was punched in the gut by a still kicking Salmon. “It ain’t over yet boy!” the fisherman growled at him and tackled Lazy to the ground. Lazy struggled to hold Salmon back and the mace fell to the ground in the struggle. Lazy bit Salmon’s ear, leading him to scream and using this; he pushed Salmon off of him, and grabbed his mace. Screaming incoherently, Lazy swung the mace at Salmon again, connecting with his head and he fell to the ground. Still screaming, he swung again and again until Salmon’s head began to separate from his body. Suddenly realising it was over, Lazy sat down.
The retired cop, DaveShack, sighed,” Well, we’ll see you in the morning then fellas. Terrible stuff this.”