vote: SeveringViper. You were among top picks yesterday, and you are still today.
12-21-2015, 15:28
SeveringViper
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Well, as I said before, Zain's not visiting anyone doesn't make him clear, but I feel there are better options. For one, Jarema. You haven't completely answered my questions from before. And now, you suddenly decide to vote me as a top pick from yesterday, despite not even mentioning me then, and only voting now after a couple votes have already been placed.
Vote: Jarema
12-21-2015, 17:00
johnhughthom
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Vote: Jarrema
Looking back at your posts, you've been quite flip floppy, like you don't want to say anything too assertive, or focus on one person, that could be used against you.
12-21-2015, 17:17
Jarema
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
well, maybe?
now, I will stay with my vote.
12-21-2015, 17:18
Jarema
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeveringViper
For one, Jarema. You haven't completely answered my questions from before.
I did.
12-21-2015, 18:55
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
JHT, do you mind showing some examples of what you mean, because I haven't noticed that myself.
12-21-2015, 19:24
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Flip-flopping is a fine townie behavior. Townies can't be assertive, they don't have enough info.
Jarema's townie behavior this game was certified by an independent bipartisan commission consisting of landlubber (town) and El Barto (scum). Also works for him that he was the second on the wagon lynching GH. Though, if GH was not known to the mafia faction as one of them, that doesn't help. He also voted edse on D2, which was a bad vote, IMO.
I'd lynch SV before Jarema.
12-21-2015, 20:11
johnhughthom
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
JHT, do you mind showing some examples of what you mean, because I haven't noticed that myself.
Well, I just brought up all Jarema's posts and he seemed to vote for someone new every round, halfheartedly and like he didn't really believe it.
In saying that, it wasn't a strong case, and his response seemed townie Jarema to me, so I'll be unvoting after I look through a few more players.
For any of you that are interested, there is a game in signups on another site that could use a few more players!
12-21-2015, 23:15
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
I think I might actually go towards Cass after severing.
She was very quiet and just jumped in at the last minute to throw a vote on khaan once he was clearly going to die anyway (although with a fair excuse of being busy), and seemed to be doing a little bit to sway people away from el barto.
She's also been doing a lot of asking other people's opinions, rather than expressing her own, which reads (to me) as a scum tactic to avoid putting your neck out, while looking active.
See these two posts in particular (both are awash in nested quotes) one two
She's also gone very quiet recently with focus shifting elsewhere, possibly to try to hide out as the last scum when no attention is directed her way.
12-22-2015, 04:37
Zain
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Quote:
Originally Posted by landlubber
For any of you that are interested, there is a game in signups on another site that could use a few more players!
Landlubber go join the Mansion!
As I've said these last few turns, I believe SeveringViper was lurker-scum, now he's active/defensive scum.
Therefore, Vote:SeveringViper
12-22-2015, 08:41
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I think I might actually go towards Cass after severing.
He was very quiet and just jumped in at the last minute to throw a vote on khaan once he was clearly going to die anyway (although with a fair excuse of being busy), and seemed to be doing a little bit to sway people away from el barto.
He's also been doing a lot of asking other people's opinions, rather than expressing his own, which reads (to me) as a scum tactic to avoid putting your neck out, while looking active.
See these two posts in particular (both are awash in nested quotes) one two
He's also gone very quiet recently with focus shifting elsewhere, possibly to try to hide out as the last scum when no attention is directed his way.
Yeah, I don't like that tactic of her either. However, Cass is my strongest town lean. khaan was tied to JHT before her vote, and it'd go to the overtime without her breaking the tie. She didn't have to do it. Too bad she hasn't voted since.
12-22-2015, 16:05
autolycus
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
For me it's between severingviper and Raith.
12-22-2015, 16:14
johnhughthom
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Vote: Zain
Reading back through most players posts, Zain's have virtually zero actual content.
12-22-2015, 17:44
Zain
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhughthom
Vote: Zain
Reading back through most players posts, Zain's have virtually zero actual content.
You did not unvote :bow:
Also, one can say the same about you, perhaps a bit more involved than myself but still fairly lurker-scum.
12-22-2015, 21:03
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhughthom
Vote: Zain
Reading back through most players posts, Zain's have virtually zero actual content.
I only clearing Zain in the memory of Winston who spent two long nights tracking Zain with no results other than the apparent snakebite. Otherwise, I agree with you. Zain's voting record is also poor - I'd like to see how SV flips to decide if it's worth anything.
12-22-2015, 21:06
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zain
You did not unvote :bow:
Also, one can say the same about you, perhaps a bit more involved than myself but still fairly lurker-scum.
You don't have to unvote (in this game, at least). I agree that JHT is content-free, but he lynched two scum, and that counts for something.
12-22-2015, 21:21
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by autolycus
For me it's between severingviper and Raith.
I'm uneasy about Raith as well. However, I find it unlikely that the last 1-2 remaining scum would push for G1K mislynch so actively as RK did. I'd expect them to be more opportunistic.
12-22-2015, 21:28
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
What do people think about Nightbringer? He's my close second candidate. This is my first game here, so I don't have any baseline meta regarding to him. Thread content and voting record (before SV flips) don't give me any reasons to clear Nightbringer.
12-22-2015, 22:05
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
What do people think about Nightbringer? He's my close second candidate. This is my first game here, so I don't have any baseline meta regarding to him. Thread content and voting record (before SV flips) don't give me any reasons to clear Nightbringer.
I can tell you that my participation in this game, with low activity at the start and ramping up later, is my standard pattern. :shrug:
12-22-2015, 22:16
johnhughthom
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I can tell you that my participation in this game, with low activity at the start and ramping up later, is my standard pattern. :shrug:
As scum you mean? What is your townie pattern?~;)
12-23-2015, 01:30
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhughthom
As scum you mean? What is your townie pattern?~;)
Well, I suppose I have to say it is the same don't I :sweatdrop:
12-23-2015, 01:35
Raith Kemmler
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
The problem with voting Jarema, beyond my tactic acceptance this is his established town, is if he's mafia we're in deep.
The inactivity is been just bad enough the town will flip itself over more than be crippled by enemy play. ?
Vote:SeveringViper
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
What do people think about Nightbringer? He's my close second candidate. This is my first game here, so I don't have any baseline meta regarding to him. Thread content and voting record (before SV flips) don't give me any reasons to clear Nightbringer.
Middling. He's not the snake Viper looks like now, but the inactivity does no favors. It's too easy a mafia tactic to hide and then establish town cred when the chaos dies. I will probably raise or lower though after a bit of a retread.
12-23-2015, 03:38
Cass_
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
I've been poisoned/I'm suddenly feeling unwell!
Sorry for my extended absence, turns out driving almost 2000kms across Oz with large areas of no mobile service, a 4yr old, new baby and screaming bird in the car isn't overly conducive to keeping up.
? - Auto bolded SV's name but didn't write 'vote' - does this count as a vote?
* - JHT switched from Jarema to Zain
Reading through player ISOs my bottom three are currently Nightbringer, Autolycus and Jarema. SV would be number four. I'm not necessarily against his lynch, I'm reading him as defensive since yesterday's phase and I find the vote on Zain meh, but I don't mind his push on Jarema and it feels like an 'easy' pile-on.
The problem with voting Jarema, beyond my tactic acceptance this is his established town, is if he's mafia we're in deep.
The inactivity is been just bad enough the town will flip itself over more than be crippled by enemy play. ?
Vote:SeveringViper
Middling. He's not the snake Viper looks like now, but the inactivity does no favors. It's too easy a mafia tactic to hide and then establish town cred when the chaos dies. I will probably raise or lower though after a bit of a retread.
I still need to re-read the thread linearly but @Raith:
- Can you explain the bold on Jarema a bit for me?
- What exactly makes Viper look like 'the snake' and why would you bring that into a question related to Nightbringer?
I see no reason to do this except to give a reason for your vote without actually giving reasons.
Yeah, runaway train on SV. Not surprising but not comforting. Could be an easy distract, or just giving up a doomed mafia. Fun. Confident John is doing his own thing.
Quote:
...through player ISOs my bottom three are currently Nightbringer, Autolycus and Jarema. SV would be number four. I'm not necessarily against his lynch, I'm reading him as defensive since yesterday's phase and I find the vote on Zain meh, but I don't mind his push on Jarema and it feels like an 'easy' pile-on.
I won't go for Jarema, but Auto or Night aren't out of the question. I'd need more convincing for Night though.
Quote:
Vote: Nightbringer
Response here pending. I'm gonna try to make a hard judgement, but no promises.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cass_
I still need to re-read the thread linearly but @Raith:
- Can you explain the bold on Jarema a bit for me?
- What exactly makes Viper look like 'the snake' and why would you bring that into a question related to Nightbringer?
I see no reason to do this except to give a reason for your vote without actually giving reasons.
[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
Viper is reactionary and defensive. But, does that translate to mafia? Defensive players are sleeping problems. See my annoyingly mistaken but strategically valid annoyance with Golden Knight's survival first mindset. Hiding does not good town make unless you've got the power. And 20 caffeinated townies will hunt the mafia faster than a few power roles (usually). Viper's real issue to me is his activity. He pops up when he's mentioned, but then goes away. That's not comforting.
Jarema, if mafia, is one of a few players town can't be confident about as we edge toward the end. But lynching him wastes now more valuable time. We're judging him based on something other than meta, I don't see a lot to be suspicious of. His activity seems distant but not evil. His posts are short.
We've got,
You. A player who vanished for a while, and hasn't voted a lot. You could be a player who hates pulling the trigger, but we don't have a lot on ya either way.
Jarema: Present, but not very active.
Nightbringer- Whose strategy if town also spirals great as mafia. Not much when the game was fluid, now giving us a lot when impressions are knowable.
Zain- Sort of active, not exactly detailed. He's here, but he ain't monologuing. I'd like a monologue.
Auto- So he's in the game. Yep.
JHT: Town, so okay.
SV- Who pops up every now and again when things shift toward him.
I'm active, but my big case was a bust. Also missed much of a phase with the holidays.
Al- Active. Town in my book. If he's mafia, gg.
So basically, we don't a lot of high content here. I'm assuming based on meta and lack of hard hitting evidence Jarema is town. If I don't, I'm left with too many unknowns to see this confidently won with poison in play. All for self correcting, but unless I see counter evidence he feels suspiciously like a filler lynch to feed town.
12-23-2015, 10:45
Visor
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Sev (Night, Al, Jarema, Zain, Auto, Raith
Jarema (Sev
Zain (John
Night (cass
24 hours for night and probably a 72 hour day just to make sure everyone has time.
12-23-2015, 11:44
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Huzzah!
Wait, why are we still here...
12-23-2015, 19:31
Zain
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
I knew Severing was scum! Smelt it day 1 ~:cool:
12-24-2015, 02:04
Raith Kemmler
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Kudos Zain, that was fine work.
Okay. I'm thinking:
Jarema: Still town to me
Zain: Early attempts at reveal of Viper look improve cred a lot.
Al Sipsclar: Still town.
Nightbringer: looks better after Viper's death, though not Zain good.
Autolycus: He turned the tide for my epic mislynch on GK. He hasn't been around. He can't be in the final town lineup.
Case-Conflicted. Her comment about SV might have been an attempt to turn the wagon, but mafia usually play that cooler. Viper probably knew he was toast come last phase and probably didn't bother trying to argue it. That said, her poisoned comment could go two ways. It's almost late enough that it could be a cover, as it took 3 phases to kill Edse, But I'd expect mafia to declare that a bit later in this case. Unless there's more than one mafia left, but that sounds overbooked.
Johnhughthom: Very town
12-24-2015, 05:07
Zain
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raith Kemmler
Kudos Zain, that was fine work.
Thank you :bow:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raith
Okay. I'm thinking:
Jarema: Still town to me
Why? He's on my radar.
Quote:
Zain: Early attempts at reveal of Viper look improve cred a lot.
Once again thanks :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raith
Al Sipsclar: Still town.
I tend to agree with you, but what makes you (and apparently everybody else) think this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raith
Nightbringer: looks better after Viper's death, though not Zain good.
Not necessarily to me, he could've easily bussed. But I have a decent feel about him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raith
Autolycus: He turned the tide for my epic mislynch on GK. He hasn't been around. He can't be in the final town lineup.
Never had a good feeling about auto, but he's not my top suspect (Jarema).
[Quote=Raith}
Case-Conflicted. Her comment about SV might have been an attempt to turn the wagon, but mafia usually play that cooler. Viper probably knew he was toast come last phase and probably didn't bother trying to argue it. That said, her poisoned comment could go two ways. It's almost late enough that it could be a cover, as it took 3 phases to kill Edse, But I'd expect mafia to declare that a bit later in this case. Unless there's more than one mafia left, but that sounds overbooked. [/QUOTE]
I feel Cass is innocent, need to analyze what you said more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raith
Johnhughthom: Very town
I tend to agree with this as well, but why?
Monologue soon to follow! :bow:
12-24-2015, 07:29
Jarema
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
are we expected to talk at night?
It is possible, that last remaining scum is some kind of third party. If so, it will be harder to find him by analyzing relations in the thread
12-24-2015, 07:48
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
If we were to lynch the last mafioso, but still had a serial killer alive, would the game end then, or we had to find the SK? I hope we don't have to hunt down the 3rd party.
With SV's flip, Zain and Nightbringer look much better. Winston's track results support Zain as well.
On D2, JHT was the top contender until, late in the day, Winston presented a pretty damning evidence against khaan. If not lynched then, khaan would have a very hard avoiding the lynch the next day. Scum had all reasons to bus him. That doesn't look good for Cass, who were last on khaan's wagon. She did break the tie and condemned khaan to the gallows, but he was doomed anyway. Another thing not looking good for Cass, was when yesterday Nightbringer mentioned her as his next scum lean, and I said that Nightbringer is my second choice, Cass came back and voted Nightbringer.
On D2, JHT was set up for a lynch with GH and EB voting him. Entirely possible that JHT is scum and that was a gambit to gain some town cred. But I think it's not very likely.
Raith was tunneling on G1K. On D3 he voted SV, but didn't bold the vote! Curiously, too, if we assume that on D1 scum voted their partners (khaan voted El Barto, EB voted GH), SV voted Raith and Raith voted GH. Otherwise, I have nothing against Raith.
Jarema is suspicious. D2 vote on edse was bad, D4 vote on Zain is interesting.
I was ready to vote Auto on D4 due to his poor voting record, but his confused nighttime vote on N3 stopped me. I mean, what kind of scum can lose the track of day/night phases?
I've been keeping a spreadsheet here. Sharing it in the hope it helps us to find the scum.
After reviewing the spreadsheet, my working theory is that there's one more mafia (who probably poisoned last night), we have a vig activated by the duchess' death, and a solo scum poisoner. Raith's kill doesn't make sense for the mafia, and Winston's claimed poisoning suggests that the poisoner is not on our side (plus khaan was traced to edse the night edse got poisoned). It's possible the vig is actually an SK, and it's also possible the poisoner is solo and khaan was doing something else that night vis a vis edse (tracking would be one possible power)
Poisoned:
N1: edse (claimed in thread)
N2:landlubber (Died N3 of poison)
N3:Winston Hughes (claimed in thread)
N4:Cass (claimed in thread)
N5: ???
Poisoner candidates from least likely to most: Cass: claimed poisoning, missed two days Nightbringer: Missed two days Al: Clearly not on the mafia's team. Only poisoner if solo Jarrema Vote on edse very strange if he's poisoned him. autolycus: Me. I know I'm innocent but Voting record not great johnhughthom landlubber got poisoned after pushing his lynch. Only poisoner if poisoner solo. Zain: Tracked as inactive first two days, but voting record is dubious. Only poisoner if poisoner part of mafia team.
Vote:Zain I think the poison is one of the scum team's powers, especially given the title of the game.
12-24-2015, 14:41
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
vote:autlycus
I'll explain later today when I have more time.
and happy holidays all!
12-24-2015, 15:20
Zain
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
I've been keeping a spreadsheet here. Sharing it in the hope it helps us to find the scum.
Thank you for sharing that, allow me to analyze and comment below :bow:
Leans:
1. Jarema - Based upon voting record Jarema seems innocent, he feels slightly more scummy though.
13. Al Sipsclar - Gunned for Severing three turns in a row, voting record and feel is innocent as well.
15. Nightbringer - Inactive scum, at first anyway. Claiming that he gets more active as the game winds down does nothing for his case, appears more scummy than Jarema in both voting record and feel.
16. Autolycus - voted for 3 confirmed townies in the past, one probable living townie, and then bandwagon scum vote. Voting record leans scum, feel is as well.
17. Cass - Poisoned, according to the spreadsheet. Voting record is neutral though inactivity in the vote seems scummy, but my feel is townie. Conflicted on this one.
18. Johnhughthom - Voting record leans him innocent, and he feels as such as well.
Vote:autolycus as of this moment, may not have time tomorrow to look, glad for the extended time.
12-24-2015, 17:41
Visor
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Merry Christmas from aus.
12-24-2015, 17:51
autolycus
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Assuming the remaining direct killer is town and the poison is part of the mafia team, lynching and killing Zain and me wins the game. Obviously, I'd prefer it to go Zain then me because that might end the game before my death, but either order should be ok. If that doesn't work out and Cass doesn't die of poison, I'd lynch her tomorrow. I might not be back on before day's end, but Merry Christmas to all in advance.
12-24-2015, 17:58
El Barto
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Visorslash
Merry Christmas from aus.
Ohayo gozaimasu, baisorusurashu-san!
12-24-2015, 20:15
Raith Kemmler
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Avenge me Town!!!!
12-25-2015, 06:43
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
I gather, no one was poisoned last night?
Master @Nightbringer, about Autolycus more to say, have you?
Why Zain, and not Jarema? For Zain we have at least some tracking results. What exonerating evidence we have for Jarema?
12-25-2015, 10:00
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
I gather, no one was poisoned last night?
Master @Nightbringer, about Autolycus more to say, have you?
Why Zain, and not Jarema? For Zain we have at least some tracking results. What exonerating evidence we have for Jarema?
Nothing regulatory, just a general feeling from posts and the voting history. Too busy with work + holiday to dig through everything at the moment.
12-25-2015, 15:39
Cass_
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Merry Christmas all!
Right now I'm still happy with a lynch from my previous top 3 but tbh I'm not that confident. Nightbringer seems less likely and I'm even back to tinfoiling on Al Sips. Apart from picking upon the GH D1 switching votes thing, my reads seem to be waaay off this game. Playing Town is hard!! Here's where I'm at:
WRT Nightbringer
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
I can agree SV's flip makes Nightbringer look considerably better unless it was a major, early bus. The main selling point for me is the fact he voted/pushed SV early the day before the lynch, rather than just jumping in the next day after SV's noose was already set. Anything's possible, but I can't really see Scum bussing like that at this point in the game so I'd be happier lynching Auto/Jarema first here.
On the other hand, the posts following Khaan's flip and the soft-clearing of both GH and El Barto still bother me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.
@Nightbringer, can you explain why Khaan's flip took El Barto off the suspect list for you?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.
WRT Auto
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Same things against Auto as before but these also caught my eye:
Quote:
Originally Posted by autolycus
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
After reviewing the spreadsheet, my working theory is that there's one more mafia (who probably poisoned last night), we have a vig activated by the duchess' death, and a solo scum poisoner. Raith's kill doesn't make sense for the mafia, and Winston's claimed poisoning suggests that the poisoner is not on our side (plus khaan was traced to edse the night edse got poisoned). It's possible the vig is actually an SK, and it's also possible the poisoner is solo and khaan was doing something else that night vis a vis edse (tracking would be one possible power)
Poisoned:
N1: edse (claimed in thread)
N2:landlubber (Died N3 of poison)
N3:Winston Hughes (claimed in thread)
N4:Cass (claimed in thread)
N5: ???
Poisoner candidates from least likely to most: Cass: claimed poisoning, missed two days Nightbringer: Missed two days Al: Clearly not on the mafia's team. Only poisoner if solo Jarrema Vote on edse very strange if he's poisoned him. autolycus: Me. I know I'm innocent but Voting record not great johnhughthom landlubber got poisoned after pushing his lynch. Only poisoner if poisoner solo.
Zain: Tracked as inactive first two days, but voting record is dubious. Only poisoner if poisoner part of mafia team.
Vote:Zain I think the poison is one of the scum team's powers, especially given the title of the game.
I also think that the poisoning would be a mafia power given that GH flipped 3rd party undercover with the mafia team but I don't know how you translate that to Zain being number one suspect - iirc Winston tracked him N2 and N3 with no result - yet landlubber and Winston were actively poisoned. Also, Winston said he tracked Zain at night, and it was the last few phases, not the first.
Quote:
Originally Posted by autolycus
Assuming the remaining direct killer is town and the poison is part of the mafia team, lynching and killing Zain and me wins the game. Obviously, I'd prefer it to go Zain then me because that might end the game before my death, but either order should be ok. If that doesn't work out and Cass doesn't die of poison, I'd lynch her tomorrow. I might not be back on before day's end, but Merry Christmas to all in advance.
1. I don't understand. How/why does taking you and Zain out win the game, if you're Town?
2. Re the bold. Why lynch me?
WRT Jarema
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
I still don't like his votes/responses and he's now scummiest to me. Unlike NB, he first avoided and then quickly switched to the lynch of SV. I feel like the interaction/weird mutual votes between them yesterday were possibly scum-scum distancing. SV was pretty obviously going to be the lynch after GK the day before so bussing wasn't out of the question and during previous GK-SV phase Jarema i) started with his strange vote on Zain and ii) then switched to GK, otherwise staying quiet, even when questioned about the vote on Zain.
I'm still of the mindset that Zain gets a pass from Winston's tracking, so all of the above stands out given that and SV's flip. Add that to the vote on Edse and the lack of reasons for previous votes and I'm going to
Vote: Jarema , pending responses from Night and Auto.
12-25-2015, 15:41
Cass_
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Also, I'm out with family all Boxing Day (next 20ish hours) for first time this year, wheeee! Will hopefully be able to get to a real computer after that/the next day before EoD :D GL!
12-26-2015, 00:04
johnhughthom
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
I don't really feel the case on auto, and Jarema smells town to me. I'm going to go Vote: Nightbringer
12-26-2015, 03:37
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
So I'm stuck on mobile only right now and can't put together a detailed response, but all I can really say is that it was a misread. I thought the way they were communicating was too interactive to be people that had their own quicktopic. I figured that mafia would probably just try to avoid association, rather than fake squable and chat with each other.
Sent from my LGL33L using Tapatalk
12-26-2015, 03:40
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
So why do you land on me jht ? Seriously? I'm shaping up as today's target, so at least make sure you have really thought it through. Auto's voting record really does far less to separate him from known skum far mine does
Sent from my LGL33L using Tapatalk
12-26-2015, 07:44
Jarema
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Vote: Zain
Merry Christmas to all (I'm a little late, I know)
edse told us he had two days to live, but died N4. Either he was healed and killed, or the poison took longer.
landlubber didn't claim he was poisoned, but N3 writeup indicated he died of poison. Either he neglected to claim, or the poison was too potent (two poisoners?) or LL was very susceptible to poisoning.
WH claimed the poisoning symptoms on D4 and died N4. Not as fast as LL, but faster than edse.
Cass claimed poisoning N4, is still alive. Seems to be within the two days expectancy. It also can be that the poison always takes two days to kill, but some people develop symptoms early (edse, Cass), some late (WH), some never (LL). In this case we're going to have more than one player poisoned on the same night, requiring multiple poisoners.
Zain did nothing on N2 and N3, so this clears him from being the solo killer or poisoner. He still can be a part of the mafia team who did nothing those nights, but I find it unlikely that he'd push for the lynch of his last teammate (SV) first thing in the morning on D4.
Nightbringer and Cass each missed two day phases. They still could have sent night orders, but their absence lowers the probability of them being the solo killers or poisoners.
Nightbringer also pushed for SV lynch early D4 and D5, which makes it unlikey he's part of SV's team.
Cass could have been bussing khaan. She also followed my ill-advised suggestions and voted Nightbringer D5 and Jarema today. Probability of being the mafia team's member: medium.
I agree with Auto that Jarema's vote on edse after edse was poisoned makes it unlikely that Jarema is the poisoner. He still can be the solo killer.
JHT and I voted to lynch more than one scum, which lowers the probability of us being the mafiosi. We still could be the solo killers/poisoners.
Autolycus has the highest chances of being either the mafia team member or the solo killer/poisoner.
Code:
mafia solo poisoner solo killer
Jarema low low medium
Zain low very low very low
Al Sipsclar very low medium medium
Nightbringer low low low
Autolycus medium medium medium
Cass medium low low
JHT very low medium medium
It's less I think he's probably scum than I think the others are less likely.
12-29-2015, 01:36
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
No one is poisoned? @cass, how are your poisoning symptoms progressing?
Are we at LyLo yet? Mislynch today and two dying tonight from poison/kill.
If the killer is town-aligned, then he's the most clueless and paranoid townie. Must be Jarema. :)
If it is the last mafioso we're looking for, then it's either Nightbringer or Cass.
If it is the 3rd party/SK, then it's John.
Vote:Nightbringer. We can alternatively lynch Cass to end her sufferings and avoid the double whammy of the mislynch and her dying on us tonight.
12-29-2015, 09:52
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
I guess vote: Cass based on the same reasoning as before.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I think I might actually go towards Cass after severing.
She was very quiet and just jumped in at the last minute to throw a vote on khaan once he was clearly going to die anyway (although with a fair excuse of being busy), and seemed to be doing a little bit to sway people away from el barto.
She's also been doing a lot of asking other people's opinions, rather than expressing her own, which reads (to me) as a scum tactic to avoid putting your neck out, while looking active.
See these two posts in particular (both are awash in nested quotes) one two
She's also gone very quiet recently with focus shifting elsewhere, possibly to try to hide out as the last scum when no attention is directed her way.
Of course, that would mean the poisoned claim was fake, but that actually seems like a reasonable ploy for mafia to pull at this stage in the game.
12-29-2015, 09:54
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhughthom
Vote: Nightbringer
It's less I think he's probably scum than I think the others are less likely.
please take another look at Cass
sorry for double post
12-29-2015, 12:28
Jarema
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Why dont you vote for Cass yourself?
12-29-2015, 12:56
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarema
Why dont you vote for Cass yourself?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I guess vote: Cass based on the same reasoning as before.
:2thumbsup:
12-29-2015, 17:12
johnhughthom
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Good point, if Cass is going to die anyway, Unvote; Vote: Cass
12-29-2015, 20:12
Jarema
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
:2thumbsup:
ouch. I missed it at top of your post - it seemed to me as if it started with quotation
12-29-2015, 21:01
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Vote: Cass_
12-30-2015, 05:42
Cass_
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
No one is poisoned? @cass, how are your poisoning symptoms progressing?
Are we at LyLo yet? Mislynch today and two dying tonight from poison/kill.
If the killer is town-aligned, then he's the most clueless and paranoid townie. Must be Jarema. :)
If it is the last mafioso we're looking for, then it's either Nightbringer or Cass.
If it is the 3rd party/SK, then it's John.
Vote:Nightbringer. We can alternatively lynch Cass to end her sufferings and avoid the double whammy of the mislynch and her dying on us tonight.
@Al Sipsclar - Why do you assume there's going to be a double whammy and that it's going to be me?
I haven't heard anything else re poisoning. My assumption would be that if there is an extra killer in the game beyond poisoner and the usual mafia NK, and they took out Edse/Winston rather than the poison then I've likely been healed? IIRC, Landlubber's death scene writeup clearly indicated poison while the others didn't. That to me suggests we have a poison healer, as well as a poisoner and an extra killer.
I'm neither mafia nor a killing power. Mislynching me at best might avoid a 'double whammy' at night but that's assuming there's no healer/I have not been healed and that there's definitely an extra killer left - which cannot be confirmed.
As far as I can see, unless we lynch mafia or killer today (or the extra killer is dead), the risk of double kill at night remains as much as it did yesterday and a preemptive strike like you're suggesting is just re-doing the poisoner's job for them if I've been healed.
I am not the right lynch today unless you're scum or you're certain that I'm going to die tonight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I guess vote: Cass based on the same reasoning as before.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
I think I might actually go towards Cass after severing.
She was very quiet and just jumped in at the last minute to throw a vote on khaan once he was clearly going to die anyway (although with a fair excuse of being busy), and seemed to be doing a little bit to sway people away from el barto.
She's also been doing a lot of asking other people's opinions, rather than expressing her own, which reads (to me) as a scum tactic to avoid putting your neck out, while looking active.
See these two posts in particular (both are awash in nested quotes) one two
She's also gone very quiet recently with focus shifting elsewhere, possibly to try to hide out as the last scum when no attention is directed her way.
Of course, that would mean the poisoned claim was fake, but that actually seems like a reasonable ploy for mafia to pull at this stage in the game.
@Nightbringer - I've mentioned before I don't like this 'reasoning', and it was that initial post that put you in my 'most scummy' pile earlier enough to vote.
1. If you actually read my posts, I've given my thoughts/opinions along with my questions every time. I make the questions the main point, but my own opinions are also there. Saying I haven't done so is either ignorant or misrepresentation. Linking it as a scum tactic looks especially bad from where I sit.
2. I have been far more explanatory of my thought process and have a higher post count than most of the players left. There was no focus on me gamewise prior to our travel, so your comment about 'focus shifting elsewhere' and me possibly 'hiding out as the last scum' is a serious reach. I've been 'quiet' because I've been flat out busy travelling and visiting with family/friends interstate over the holiday (as you mention and essentially excuse as 'fair').
3. Khaan's vote could have been a bus but the only motive for that if I was scum would be to theoretically gain town cred - which I have never actually seen a hammer vote on a pretty-certain-to-be-lynched player do. In almost every game I've played that vote garners suspicion and ends in the situation I'm facing now/a lynch, so there wouldn't actually be much point in hammering - except as Town to secure a lynch on someone who's likely scum.
I voted taking Winston's claim at face value but tbh I actually freaked out a little after that - first in case it was a mislynch (I had been most suspicious of Winston early in the day) and later in case it was all leading to a gambit that would incorrectly clear Wilson and Edse. I was still tinfoiling on that until both of them flipped Town.
4. El Barto was the player I was watching closest and I still had him as very potential scum. I never did anything in relation to him other than voice my personal preference that he not be an early lynch. The reasons for that (which I explained) were that I hadn't figured him out yet (read: he was actually fun to try and solve) and that I found a lot of his sarcastic quips were mirroring my own initial thoughts.
5. It's equally reasonable that scum would suggest my poisoning claim was a ploy/fake to push for my mislynch.
What, specifically, stands out to you about the two posts you linked, besides the nested quotes?
There are thoughts and reasons galore along with my questions if you actually look, and I will willingly elaborate further on anything you highlight/don't understand. Same goes for anything else that concerns you about my game.
12-30-2015, 07:37
Cass_
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Ok, here's where I'm at right now.
Flips in post #421 make it likely that NKs come from mafia (killed Cuth), poisoner (killed landlubber) and town/3p (killed El Barto).
We've had no specific poison kills except for landlubber. Edse and Winston both claimed poisoning and lived, this suggests a healer who is likely to still be alive since I'm still here and Zain was watched on the nights players were healed. The healer could confirm my poisoning was true but I understand them holding back if they're unsure of me/my chance of survival.
There were no additional kills for the past two nights. I'm not sure how likely a second 3rd party would be after GH's flip, or why they would holster at this point in the game, so I'm leaning that the killer was Town and is dead or is holstering because they're unsure.
Despite my previous post, I doubt that Nightbringer is scum pushing my lynch so hard today, and as with yesterday, I doubt that he pushes SV so hard as a 'bus' the day before he became the lynch over GK.
I think it's more likely (in both cases) that Scum simply let Town direct and pile on at this stage, like JHT/Jarema, or make subtle suggestions such as Al Sips' 'alternatively we could kill Cass to end her suffering and spare a double whammy'.
Of the votes on me:
Al Sips votes Nightbringer after JHT does, then floats the idea of lynching me as an alternative to Nightbringer, waits until the votes pile on to vote me. Feels like he's been gearing up to my mislynch rather than genuinely thinking I'm scum/need to be lynched for the good of Town for the past two-three day phases. Seems like he doesn't care which one of us dies, even though he previously swore the vote on Khaan made me his top town and in post #535 Nightbringer is the only player he lists as 'low risk' for every possible killing role in the game I wish I had more time to look into his vote patterns/ISO, he's feeling more and more scummy to me despite activity.
@Al Sipsclar - Please explain your shift in thought process on the Khaan vote and on Nightbringer's alignment between:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
Nightbringer also pushed for SV lynch early D4 and D5, which makes it unlikey he's part of SV's team.
and
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
If it is the last mafioso we're looking for, then it's either Nightbringer or Cass.
JHT's out the gate vote on Nightbringer is lacklustre for the 'it's less I think he's actually scum' and the sheep to me with the 'if she's going to die anyway' isn't great, but prior to this he has voted GK, Khaan, GH, GK, Jarema, Zain. He was most active in the phases where he was pushing Jarema/Zain for low content. That made me wary for the hipocracy, the fact that I struggle with low posters, and because I had Zain clear thanks to Winston - but on the surface GH and Khaan votes are a plus. Need to check timing of votes to confirm they weren't likely bus/scummy. But unless he plays super quiet/non-explanatory and sheepy as scum I think this is more likely to come from Town.
Nightbringer I've been over. I still don't like his vote or reasoning wrt me, he could very well be scum. I could return to this in F3 but I don't think I'll be voting here today.
Jarema sheeps and votes me despite making the focus of the post questioning NB for a not-vote that doesn't exist. Not sure if this is legit or attempt at diversion/getting derp-cleared. I also didn't like his final 'to seal it, I'll vote Autolycus' post yesterday. And everything below still stands out to me but TLDR: The repeated opportunistic/sheeping votes on townies and lack of explanations/reasons bother me.
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cass_
WRT Jarema
I still don't like his votes/responses and he's now scummiest to me. Unlike NB, he first avoided and then quickly switched to the lynch of SV. I feel like the interaction/weird mutual votes between them yesterday were possibly scum-scum distancing. SV was pretty obviously going to be the lynch after GK the day before so bussing wasn't out of the question and during previous GK-SV phase Jarema i) started with his strange vote on Zain and ii) then switched to GK, otherwise staying quiet, even when questioned about the vote on Zain.
Gun to head Al Sips and Jarema are the most scummy to me right now.
I'd be happy with a lynch on either. I wish I had more time to look Sips' ISO/vote pattern but I'm going to YOLO and return to my early game read of Vote: Al Sips based on gut and the direct, unexplained contradictions above.
I will be on mobile whilst out tonight to shift back to Jarema if required, but that's where I'm at. I am a definite mislynch today.
TLDR: If I'm mislynched/die tonight and it's not definitely related to poisoning, I'd be using my Town flip to look at Jarema/Sips unless you think JHT plays low posting, high-bussing scum or that, as scum, Nightbringer is more likely to vote SV two days in a row (over a townie in the initial instance) than Jarema is to avoid the discussion/votes on SV when they first arise and then suddenly vote him out the gate the next day when he's pretty much guaranteed to go down.
GLGL!
12-30-2015, 09:10
Al Sipsclar
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Cass,
Like Winston said, khaan's lynch was a headshot. Little could save him, so mafia could just as well bus him. Participating in khaan's lynch is not really clearing you.
Similarly, SV was a marked man after G1K's mislynch. Bringing him up for lynch is not really clearing NB. "Unlikely" doesn't mean "impossible".
So, you and NB have the most chances of being the bussing scum.
I played with Jarema and JHT before, and I can see how they could be town. I don't have this benefit with you or NB, so you two appear less towny to me. I'm eliminating the unknowns.
You might have been cured by Raith or Auto (less likely, since I believe Auto didn't have a night action). If the healer is still alive, he's also voting to lynch you. We're voting to lynch you because we're expecting you to die from poison anyway. The right thing to do for the healer would be to confirm he healed you, so the poisoning would not be a reason to lynch you. He should have nothing to be afraid of, since there's not much left to do in the game. So I guess, there's no healer.
I wish I could help you, but since you're voting me, there's not much I can do for you.
12-30-2015, 09:58
Cass_
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Sipsclar
Cass,
Like Winston said, khaan's lynch was a headshot. Little could save him, so mafia could just as well bus him. Participating in khaan's lynch is not really clearing you.
Similarly, SV was a marked man after G1K's mislynch. Bringing him up for lynch is not really clearing NB. "Unlikely" doesn't mean "impossible".
So, you and NB have the most chances of being the bussing scum.
I played with Jarema and JHT before, and I can see how they could be town. I don't have this benefit with you or NB, so you two appear less towny to me. I'm eliminating the unknowns.
You might have been cured by Raith or Auto (less likely, since I believe Auto didn't have a night action). If the healer is still alive, he's also voting to lynch you. We're voting to lynch you because we're expecting you to die from poison anyway. The right thing to do for the healer would be to confirm he healed you, so the poisoning would not be a reason to lynch you. He should have nothing to be afraid of, since there's not much left to do in the game. So I guess, there's no healer.
I wish I could help you, but since you're voting me, there's not much I can do for you.
1. The same reasoning for the Khaan lynch logically existed when you illogically said it made me top Town;
2. I still think Jarema's avoid then vote SV the next day is more scummy than NB's constant push;
3. Just because you know a player doesn't mean they're Town. Explain thoroughly, in the context of the game. Just because we're 'unknown' doesn't make us good lynches at this point in the game;
4. The healer could be voting me because everyone else is and they don't want to be NK or I could be the healer, have healed everyone who claimed this game including myself and have played terribly/with less time than anticipated.
5. You could vote Jarema
There's not much anyone can do for me at this point since noone else is around.
Why do you wish to help me if you think I'm scum. Timing is terrible and baby screaming - sorry Town GL
Swing and a miss, but is interesting in its own way. I'm becoming less and less trusting of Al Sips, Jarema, and JHT. The final mafia is bound to be one of those three, so lets get em guys.
oh wait...
12-30-2015, 11:43
Nightbringer
Re: Rise of The Snake Cult [In Play]
In case I die tonight, my gut is leaning towards JHT. Too non-committal and bandwagon-y the last few days.
Also, my apologies cass, but thank you for the final contribution!
