Mass Effect 17er [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Maple

So how yall doing

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6/10

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Originally Posted by ColonelLubriderm

6/10

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Better than average :)

Something we haven't discussed that I think is worth considering:

Have any of yall actually played a 17er without extra kp? It's generally a given.

I suppose Rocks town didn't have explicit kp, but even in that game it was 2 TIs a tpro/venge and benign

It's unusual to not have extra kills.

Makes busing slightly more palatable d1 when you have a DOA slot.

What do people think of this?

The second thought I have is that backup is an anti-swing role that makes teams more consistent. But it's only ever a thing when wolves have at minimum half way decent PRs.

So, what PRs do the wolves have?

I'm still waiting for monty to come claim, Logic to post something other than the haha funny gottem towards me of last night, and general Consensus Posting.

I didn't care about the prior convo here

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Originally Posted by Maple

The second thought I have is that backup is an anti-swing role that makes teams more consistent. But it's only ever a thing when wolves have at minimum half way decent PRs.

So, what PRs do the wolves have?

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seer/RB

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Originally Posted by ColonelLubriderm

seer/RB

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at least.

assuming we have odd poison, even vig, healer and maybe +1 random low impact thingamajig

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Originally Posted by ColonelLubriderm

at least.

assuming we have odd poison, even vig, healer and maybe +1 random low impact thingamajig

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Perhaps. Worth just keeping in mind.

Ara, what was the point of that Visor vote at EOD?

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Originally Posted by Maple

Is that a hardclaim?

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What? Of course not.

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Originally Posted by Hally

how is that a contradiction monty? also why does the thing about sunbae’s reads make bop a wolf? this feels incredibly reachy

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The contradiction would have been in making esooa-dya exclusive, but leaning both of them at the top of POE when only one could be scum by their position. I acknowledge today that, regardless of alignment, a charitable interpretation as his same thought facing a representational challenge makes as much sense as CL forgetting that he shouldn't want to oust esooa after dya. AFAICT CL only once, 1606, mentioned scumreading esooa at all. so maybe you can see my perspective when you remember that there's no strict relationship between establishing an exclusive pair and reading its individual members (i.e. someone could say esooa-dya exclusive but read them both as town).

Dya's sunbae quote noted that sunbae TRed CL, Zelda, and Ara. She herself sheeped Sunbae, but only mentioned sheeping on two reads. This could be laundering a townread on CL through a flipped townie without actually associating herself with CL (i.e. not saying it out loud).

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Originally Posted by Hally

probably dumb read that i nonetheless feel compelled to share: i kinda feel like cuth would bus dya as a wolf

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Is Cuth no longer bottom-tier for you?

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Originally Posted by Hally

wya on monty? i feel like everything he posts is wolfy but i don’t know him so i might be wildly off base

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I think the game rides on a Esooa-Eph alliance, but I'd like you on board as well.

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Originally Posted by Visor

just feeling it out

my lizard brain wants to push manti and bop for pushing csargo over the edge of dya

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Why wouldn't you? Look at associatives.

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Originally Posted by Visor

wondering how i should feel about ara continually pushing me

idk, i think i should be an obvious villager (especially i was a main pusher of the only wolf we've killed) but apparently multiple people seem to have come to a wrong read of me

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If you led the charge on a second mafio, the doubters will feel better.

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

dude i explained it a bunch of times

it was talking about how implicitly accepting that people other people were hard pushing were likely wolves and proceeding with a worldview where they are/where they kinda need to die anyway, and i said you and monty were both doing this, and you looked bad specifically if and only if gh/dya were v/v, whereas monty looked bad for that specific thing either way

i think you're conflating how strongly i felt about a read in terms of my opinions on either of those people with how many words i had to spend repeating what i'd already said before in slightly different words

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The problem with this line of reasoning was that almost all players expressed doubts about Dya's status. Furthermore, you should reevaluate whether it's worse to wagon-shop a CW to quasi-consensus scum than to hold the line.

It was really wild that you voted me for having largely similar thoughts about the gamestate as you did.

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Originally Posted by ColonelLubriderm

at least.

assuming we have odd poison, even vig, healer and maybe +1 random low impact thingamajig

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I'm pretty sure Zelda doubled as the only autonomous healer, but for a better idea @Cuthilius could you heal your poisons in XCOM? I was a doc in that game, so if you couldn't my role would make sense as a complement, whereas if you could then maybe town does have a doc here.

( @Cuthillius see above about poisons please)



Fellas, let's be reasonable. Is anyone here interested in ousting Hally or Ara? No? I thought not.

In that case there are three other living players who ended on the Csargo wagon. In no universe were there zero scum on Csargo when scum-dya was the CW. That means, then, that there is at minimum one mafioso in the set [Monty, CL, Maple]. I hope it would be evident by now that CL and Maple can be partners, whereas neither of them could plausibly be partners with me.

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Originally Posted by Hally

ara
eph
esooa

bop
visor

manasi
manti

cuth
logic
monty

i originally had manti in the bottom group but i like his posts toDay so i moved him up a tier. i’m worried i’m misclearing bop or visor but i still lean v for both so i don’t really wanna consider either toDay. should ~always be at least two wolves in the bottom half regardless

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That's what makes this list so odd, Hally. Unsurprisingly you have Ara and yourself as town. But you have me as top scum, with CL and Maple in the middle.

So - what is your theory here? That, of seven Csargo voters on D1, I was the only scum? The only mafia trying to save their partner?

And not only that, but that the player who tied Csargo with dyachei with daylight to spare is clearly scum, but NOT the player who broke the tie (CL), NOR the player who overvoted to keep Csargo in the lead?

:inquisitive:

And not only that, but that the next likeliest candidates, such that of these three at least two are almost certainly scum, are Cuth and Dolbster/Logic.

What is your theory here? That while dyachei was the leading wagon she froze up, Cuth and Dolbster potatoed on a non-viable counterwagon, I stepped up to tie Csargo with my partner, and from there on three townies graciously happened to finish the job for us?

:inquisitive:

And then, the following day, that most sussedpect Monty never wavered from accepting partner dya as the necessary ouster, but those townies from alongside him on the Csargo wagon pointed their votes anywhere and everywhere but dyachei the scumbag for most (or all) of the day?

:inquisitive:

I rest my case.

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Originally Posted by Visor

dya/dolby logic/monty/cuth

?

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Originally Posted by Visor

i guess perhaps in this game backup is more valuable than any other role

given it can be ALL ROLES

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Damn, not only did scum hardly try to save their partner D1, letting townies do the job, but they let it happen when their most important role was up for ouster on D1?

Now that is wiggety-diggety wack.


Alternatively, players who saved dya did it because they were aligned with dya. YMMV :shrug:

I think 1726 is Maple softing that he's going to kill Zelda the poisoner that night.

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Originally Posted by Maple

A random thought about the poisoner popped into my head and I was gonna post it then I realized that would be suboptimal so here I am

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Also, why does Maple 1444-52 have the same reads as dya piggybacking Sunbae at SOD2?

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Originally Posted by Maple

My town core is Zelda, Ara, and Colonel i think

going to choose to sponge this for today, though ara is the only one of the three that i particularly think is villagery

i think bop feels solidly between ranges with some nice posts, and i havent thought much about the zelda slot;sunbae was calling it extremely likely v so ill just say Fair Enough

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Originally Posted by dyachei

sunbae probably right on village reads and had pzelda high. he had good reasons for it, too. put him in towncore with ara and bop

came around on gh villa, too

adds hally as well

I think i might just take his word on pzelda for the time being. was already feeling alright about ara and gh

hally requires a lot of work to read accurately and I'm not gonna get into that yet

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Vote: Maple
Vote: Maple
Vote: Maple

No wonder Zelda was acting more like a Town leader than anyone else: he was impelled to as Shepard!

poison and healing are separate roles

i doublechecked xcom for you, but i don't think i've ever seen someone who can poison and then retract the poison

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

poison and healing are separate roles

i doublechecked xcom for you, but i don't think i've ever seen someone who can poison and then retract the poison

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OK, so that's a difference. Zelda just flipped with a one-shot antidote.

vote: cuth

i didn’t even see capage was the healer too

so we have this so far

poisoner/healer - capage
redacted pr - csargo
even night vig - unknown

cuth why aren’t you solving bronana

Been trying to compile all the GH/dya w/w reads but I somehow lost half my multiquotes, here's the remainder though (this is all/mostly after Visor started at SoD 2):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by Hally

shhhh, you’re not supposed to say it yet

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Originally Posted by ColonelLubriderm

sick xpost

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

What happens if they all flip town?

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Originally Posted by ColonelLubriderm

i think its completely plausible for gh/dya to be any combination of alignments

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Originally Posted by Esooa

I thought it was possible but I just saw the post he made "My literal only intent was to save Dya" lmao

do you think he posts this if they're w/w?

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Originally Posted by Ephemeral

nod nod

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Arapocalypse

Was at least skeptical
Cuthillius - I think? Not sure
Esooa
Montmorency - sort of?

Couldn't find reactions directly after
Logic (formerly Dolby)
Manasi
Maple

Agreed with w/w
ColonelLubriderm
Ephemeral

Hally
Visor




...Should probably make words about how most of the people in the bottom are those I'm townreading!!!

monty i don’t understand how you are getting from those quotes that wolves knew capage was the healer

not that it’s impossible if manti is a wolf because he is a good pr hunter, but you don’t know that and those quotes by themselves seem irrelevant

or poisoner rather

or both, i guess

honestly my sense of it is that the dya/gh w/w stuff was pushed by wrong villagers and then wolves just kinda let it happen or maybe tried to position themselves to look good when gh flipped villa

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

I think 1726 is Maple softing that he's going to kill Zelda the poisoner that night.




Also, why does Maple 1444-52 have the same reads as dya piggybacking Sunbae at SOD2?





Vote: Maple
Vote: Maple
Vote: Maple

No wonder Zelda was acting more like a Town leader than anyone else: he was impelled to as Shepard!

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Tell me more.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Just gonna lay it out there I guess: Rask is (probably) dying and I think he's gonna flip town. I know it's the easiest thing in the world to look like you don't have a care in the world when you have a giant timer counting down to your doom, but, well, he does.

dya, OTOH, is... I don't think it's looking good for them. I get that they're still probably busy and everything, but even when they were around in the thread at SOD last night (US time), I wasn't really a fan of what they did with their time. The Esooa focus and kind of sticking on the point where Esooa would have known why she was voting for who she was seems kind of weak. dya does this thing a lot where they bite down hard and don't really let go as town, and this looks like an attempt to replicate it, but I think it's a deadly combination of it being a bad place to bite down and the push not having much bite in the first place (yes, I'm aware this is coming from me whose bite has also been somewhat lacking to this point, but still).

So, if I'm right, this obviously leaves me in an... unfortunate situation, considering associatives and stated EOD motives, etc. What do I intend to do about it? I don't want to go fully diving into the [Rask town/dya mafia] world because I could just as easily be wrong about one or both outcomes and waste a ton of effort on my end.

Hally and pzelda are my ride or die towns. I haven't played with Hally as much as dya has, but I have played with Hally a bunch recently and I find it kind of odd that dya's hesitating so much on landing on Hally town here. It seems fairly obvious from my POV. Esooa's pushes on pzelda recently do little for me; I'm a lot interested in his progressions looking good than seeing overall, sustained, and comprehensive solving effort from him, and I'm pretty sure that's what I'm getting. Ara and Esooa are a level below my top two, I have Monty as light town, and that's pretty much it in terms of my towns. [Visor/Ephemeral/Dolby/ColonelBop/Manti/Manasi/Cuth], 4 in here minus any red flips we get from Rask/dya. I'm gonna see what I can do about kicking a couple names out of this list and go from there.

To head off any questions, Visor is probably my biggest drop on this from yesterday and I think it has to do in large part to how he's treating my slot; I find it hard to believe that he, specifically, has locked himself into a mafia!GH world and is solving around from there and that he really can't even entertain a town motive in my actions.



The bolded line specifically is just atrocious considering how many times I've explained my thought process w/r/t preferring Amy/Rask over dya on d1 and him just outright refusing to recognize it, I've spent too much time and effort on it already and at this point I think he's willfully misinterpreting my posts to get what he wants.

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[QUOTE=GeneralHankerchief;2053815000]

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

There is absolutely cause for concern with me if dya is mafia and I fully acknowledge this. My EOD behavior was openly and admittedly designed to keep dya alive and I will fully cop to it and own up to my mistakes if this ends up being the case. However, where I have an issue is with people not understanding why I prioritized Amy/Rask over dya in the first place, when I said it (and why) many many times over the course of D1 and D2:

[SPOIL]















Like, let me elaborate: Let's say Visor comes in on D2 and starts pushing me because he thinks I was trying to invoke powerwolf.jpg at EOD yesterday and save a partner, just like I was trying to do in the team game except this time more successfully. I go "well yeah, this *does* look bad for me, doesn't it?" and put my pants on and try to work through stuff without giving him a second glance.

Visor didn't do that though. He spent time on my Eph push and then framed his me/dya take by continuing to be confused why I prioritized Amy/Rask over dya in the first place, which, as I just detailed above, is a thing that I very much spent time on D1 and should not be a point of confusion to anyone in the game reading.

See the difference?

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I'm stealing GH's words on why I suspect Visor because it's put pretty well here, and also proves that I'm not entirely insane; yes, this is why that's Visor over the others who went onto that read!!

General question: do you think that the GH/dya association was entirely pushed by town, or what? What do you think mafia were doing around that push, in that case - what was their mafia agenda yesterday at all, with mafia!dya clearly going down sooner than later and them having to try and set themselves up for endgame? Because if you think that they're not going to at least try and capitalize on a push like that, then... -shrug-

Also mildly amused by both Visor/Bop acting mortally offended by any shred of suspicion on them; regardless of how you think you've played you're not above getting suspected, and acting like you're entitled to being forever townread isn't going to make it happen!

That does make me consider that it's simply TWTBAW here, however!!

I'm still on the vigi softclaim.

What was the point?

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Originally Posted by Hally

monty i don’t understand how you are getting from those quotes that wolves knew capage was the healer

not that it’s impossible if manti is a wolf because he is a good pr hunter, but you don’t know that and those quotes by themselves seem irrelevant

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I specifically thought cargo was a vt on an eod skim lol

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Originally Posted by Hally

honestly my sense of it is that the dya/gh w/w stuff was pushed by wrong villagers and then wolves just kinda let it happen or maybe tried to position themselves to look good when gh flipped villa

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Maybe I'm biased because thinking along the lines of if I were mafia and you've got a sinking partner that has had a good town player defend them briefly, those are some extremely easy w/w associations to pull out and pretend that you believe!!

(For which I never really saw Visor consider why GH would blatantly powerwolf in that manner here, for one, which is the most obvious follow-up thought to seeing GH's EoD 1!!)

Following my previous thought, maybe that's just too self-conscious though; thoughts to consider, anyway!!!

If monty doesn't come back and hardclaim vigi, I'm lynching him.

That PR soft was weak shit.

I read your posts ara

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Originally Posted by Hally

cuth why aren’t you solving bronana

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because i'm putting off posting in this game until i'm in the right headspace

but i'm also skeptical about whether that's going to happen until monday

so maybe i should just go for it

but i am not feeling it at this precise moment in time

i will say

i think manti and bop have both posted well today

and i think logic's post wrt gh and that read was incredibly wolfy

but shrug

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Originally Posted by Ephemeral

Right so here's a thought exercise

Dya starts getting run up near d1 eod, to no one's surprise

Knowing that rask and csargo were both villagers, dya could easily set themselves up to push whichever of the 2 they wanted greatly improving their odds of living through d1

Instead dya sets off to push on esooa, a wagon that would never take off at that point given their respective positions ITT and foregoes any play at self-pres

Why do y'all think that is?

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Trying not to flat out openwolf?

Pushing your counterwagons can look fairly bad if you're doing so at that point there, as it would be blatantly out of self-pres, and I'm fairly certain dya would be very aware of that!!

I don't think it's trying to anti-spew Esooa mafia, given Esooa's side of their interactions!!!

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

because i'm putting off posting in this game until i'm in the right headspace

but i'm also skeptical about whether that's going to happen until monday

so maybe i should just go for it

but i am not feeling it at this precise moment in time

i will say

i think manti and bop have both posted well today

and i think logic's post wrt gh and that read was incredibly wolfy

but shrug

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I agree that logic has made the worst posts so far today.