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Thoughts? It's a bit of a complicated situation right now, but will all-out war result?
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Article (BBC)
Thoughts? It's a bit of a complicated situation right now, but will all-out war result?
Interesting , Israel has told Russia that it is only selling defensive weapons to Georgia and doesn't want to escalate the situation or alter the balance of regional power .
Russia responds by saying it is only selling defensive weapons to Iran and doesn't want to escalate the situation or alter the balance of regional power .
Funny stuff eh .
What NATO is waiting for to bomb this evil Regime wich attack honest separatists?
Some South Ossetinians want to be with Georgia, but shaika with Moscow support holds its business ( would be regarded as criminal in many countries) deeply connected Russia.
There is no ethic strife. It is all about the money and inner Ossetinian clan infighting (Some clans get support from Georgians, some from Russians). The same was happening even during USSR times, though we didnt know about it.
The same type of conflict was in Ajaria too (South West Georgia). Check internet for information how it was resolved.
It is all connected with realpolitic, The Caucasus is strategic region because of Caspian Sea oil. Many large countries have different interests there and through mass media they will accordingly focus their population about this conflict.
So far it looks like that Georgians specially want to provoke Russia to invade. And I expect that they will back off immediately. But either way it will be Georgian PR victory over Russia in the eve of Olympic Games.
150 russian tanks have entered, 2 russian planes shot down.
According to "experts" in the papers here, this might escalate... What does people here think about that?
They're actually fighting a war over 70.000 people? That's one or two communities here, hardly worth the effort and bloodshed. Couldt Georgia try to negotiate some more?
I hope it doesn't escalate.
America defends Israel. American troops were training with Georgian troops. Russia defends Iran.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
World War 3, anyone?
How about:
Side 1
Georgia
USA
UK
Eastern European
Nations
etc. etc.
Side 2
Russia
Iran
Syria
etc. etc.
It spreads to the Middle East, and we all get screwed. :embarassed::help::embarassed:
My guess?
Some escalation, but not an all-out conflict.
Russia has played this game along with the locals for some time now. Probably some sense of need by Putin to show the iron fist a bit -- gotta keep the former "colonials" in their place, but unlikely he'd want loads of scrutiny or a large scale semi-guerilla conflict ongoing as he continues to consolidate power.
From Aljaz
Quote:
Martin McCauley, a London-based Russia analyst, told Al Jazeera: "You can argue that the president of South Ossetia, who wants independence from Georgia, is deliberately provoking Tbilisi and is trying to suck Russia in."
Quote:
Georgia's national security council warned that Moscow and Tbilisi would be in "a state of war" if the reports of a Russian military convoy entering South Ossetia proved true.
Saakashvili said: "A full-scale aggression has been launched against Georgia [by Russia]. Georgia will not yield its territory or renounce its freedom," he said.
He also announced a full military mobilisation with reservists being called into action.
Quote:
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, promised on Friday to defend Russian citizens in South Ossetia.
"We cannot allow the deaths of our countrymen to go unpunished. The guilty parties will receive the punishment they deserve," he said in televised remarks.
For his part, Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, spoke of retaliation and pledged to protect Russian citizens.
Pompous bombasts, the lot of them. :skull:
Interesting take on the parallells. What do you think motivates Israel's interest? Oil?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
Let SO break loose and rid this waste of resources.Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
Not a chance. The US is in no situation to oppose Russia militarily. Unless Georgia somehow pulls out a victory in this war on its own (or survives for long enough for there to be a negotiated ceasefire) this will result in Russia giving the US a major black eye. Assuming they can achieve military victory, this is a good political move by Putin as it would greatly strengthen Russian influence in the region.Quote:
Originally Posted by {BHC} King Jan III Sobieski
This is all the result of a lot of broken promises and and truly bad diplomacy over the years. Hopefully the change of administration in the US can help fix this, but I don't think that escalation will wait until then.
Our troops have been training for 8 years in a multi-regional, moderate-low, real combat situation. That's better than not having fought a real campaign for 33 years and having something go down. I think we should butt out for the time being. In the next few days, will NATO enter Georgia do you think?
I'd rather have WW3 happen now than in 10-20 years. Anybody else?
Russian Armored Forces Roll.
This is really terrible, and I think that someone should try to mediate this. I can only hope that Georgia takes to heart the lessons of all small countries.Quote:
Russian news agencies quoted witnesses saying a Russian armored column had rolled across the border.
MOBILISATION
Saakashvili told reporters: "This is a clear intrusion on another country's territory. We have Russian tanks on our territory, jets on our territory in broad daylight." He ordered a full-scale mobilization of military reservists.
Strike fast, strike hard. Inflict as many casualties as possible. Maybe we should create a polygot mercenary force to help them. :shrug:
You mean like NATO?Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshal Murat
Well, now we know for sure which country is the first one to be absorbed into Comrade Putin's new Soviet Union.
Their reaction will be very interesting. In April, NATO promised Georgia that they would be invited to join in the near future. On one hand, a promised invitation is not membership, so NATO is not bound to defend Georgia. On the other hand, it's also a guarantee of future membership, and thus allowing Russia to invade Georgia would be a direct challenge to NATO itself. Not a good situation to be in.Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
:juggle2:
Areas around Georgia's capital seem to have been bombed by Russian forces. Georgia is removing its 2000 strong fighting force from Iraq.
This action seems to be in response to knowledge by Russia that Georgia will be part of NATO as of next year. If they had been part of NATO now this would have never happened, but if it had we would be at war with the Russian Federation.
I guess we know where Medvedev is coming from now, eh? I hope Putin is enjoying himself in Beijing.
Also there seems to be a trend in calling violent occupational forces "peace keepers". 10 Russian "peace keepers" seem to have been killed earlier this morning as other "peace keepers" bombed bases near Tbilisi...
Georgia put 2000 of its dudes on the line in Iraq and is being promised NATO membership discussion. To let them fry would be despicable.
It would be, wouldn't it? :beam:Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
Yes, the best thing to do is to start a huge war with Russia now, a nuclear war if possible, only because Georgia had to shell some 70,000 breakaway nutters in nooneknowswhere. :dizzy2:
Not a huge war. Just an idy-bity one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Husar
We could send in NATO Peacekeepers like we did in Serbia before things got way too hot. That was a good move that worked out well. Russia wouldn't attack NATO right now. Unless they are insane - in which case a massive war is rather unavoidable anyway, eh?
I just don't understand why they are bombing around Tbilisi. Get a map and see how absurd that is.
Not quite as radical, but it won't hurt to show some spine and at the very least issue a condemnation of Russian invasion, followed by some financial and logistical assistance to Georgia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Husar
I think Full Blown War will happen. Russia is just mad that they aren't as big as they were 40 years ago..
Oh well onto more interesting subjects .
Did anyone see the opening ceromony of the Olympics ?
I did , they put it on in the pub just after arrived after I had taken he kids for their morning dip in the Atlantic .
It was quite good , it certainly give the Macnas parade a run for its money , but then again I don't think the Macnas parade gets quite the level of money that the Olympics get and the performers don't end up in labour camps if they screw up .
But anyway after a while the racing started so the opening ceremony got switched off as I don't think there is a bookie that is taking bets on how many flags are waved or what sort of patterns the performers can make in the sand .
When China recieved the Olympics I thought it was a good idea because of the positive geopolitical effects. Those effects were not forthcoming, so I'm not going to watch a man dance around in his skivies on ice. Unless he is doing it in South Ossetia.
Olympics shmolympics. This is a Total-War forum, not a Total-Olympics forum.
Update - the dancing hot chinese girl band was good. Olympics are as boring as hell. I'd rather watch the World Cup.
NATO dragged their feet too long, let Russia have Georgia.
I've been hoping for a Russian war since the day I understood there was a huge country with massive resources and a rather bad-ass military history next door, so any conflict involving Russia in any way is interesting to me. Shame they don't use the good old Red Army tactics anymore where they'd attack en masse, just that only half of them would actually have guns.
Oh come on Tuff , it was very good .Quote:
Olympics shmolympics. This is a Total-War forum, not a Total-Olympics forum.
Update - the dancing hot chinese girl band was good. Olympics are as boring as hell. I'd rather watch the World Cup.
one fella on seeing the puppeteers actualy suggested that the puppets were really small chinese people as they were so lifelike , entertainment like that is priceless .
Well not the puppeteers but the comment by the idiot in the pub .:laugh4::laugh4::laugh4::laugh4:
Haha. They could easily be construed as puppets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
So, should the Georgian army be allowed to complete the ethnic cleansing of South Ossetia they began in 1991?Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
Link with video (though lots of it appears to be self-propelled artillery like the 2S3 Akatsiya instead of tanks as advertised)
Business as usual. Everyone knows they're lying, and everyone knows what they're actually doing. But if they said what they're actually doing, they would have an international outcry.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
Why? We have two breakaway countries. As it seems right now, Georgia has just attacked one of these countries, and the other country and Russia came to the aid of that country.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshal Murat
Wow!...This happened really fast. In my personal opinion(and I'm no expert in the Russian world of Politics), but I'd say let them go at it. If it means no war with Russia or a World War Three in general. Then good. There is no point in escalating into a conventional war with a nuclear power over a little meaningless province. Yes, it's horrible that civilians, soldiers are probably being killed as we speak, but if it mean thousands or millions more are spared from being drawn into this conflict then so be it. Lets hope that they keep it to South Ossetia and not spread the fighting to the rest of Georgia, though, if Georgia mobilizes and calls up more troops, then that might happen.
Russians engaging GeorgiansQuote:
Russia "suppressed" Georgia fire in South Ossetia
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian soldiers now in the South Ossetian capital say their artillery has begun firing at Georgian forces - the first confirmed engagement between the two countries' troops, Russian agencies reported.
"Georgian troop positions firing on Tskhinvali and peacekeepers were suppressed by artillery fire and tank units of the 58th Army, which are outside the capital of South Ossetia," Russian army Colonel Igor Konashenkov, television channel Vesti-24 quoted him as saying.
IrishArmenian, where are you when we need Caucasian politics explained???
EMFM: The opening picture is of T-80s with reactive armor, followed by a rolling clip of the self-propelled artillery and what look like BMDs (or a similar model).
The two 'countries' mentioned, Abkanaz (or something similar) and Southern Ossetia are regions that are under Georgian control. One region, specifically Southern Ossetia, agreed to a ceasefire, but then attacked Georgian forces. Now Russian 'peacekeepers' are rolling in with the heavy stuff, protecting 'Russian' civilians, attacking Georgian troops, and supporting an insurrectionist movement. Abkanaz rebels have been moving in to assist, but to my knowledge, Georgia still remains in control.Quote:
Why? We have two breakaway countries. As it seems right now, Georgia has just attacked one of these countries, and the other country and Russia came to the aid of that country.
As such, Georgia can either
1. Play dead and let Ossetia be overrun by Russian peacekeepers, who will probably stay for some time.
2. Fight back hard and fast, driving back Rebel and Russian forces, fighting them off until outside intervention.
3. Forget about the two provinces, and let bygones be bygones.
Georgia now is at a turning point. They can either continue the battles against Russia, or they can stop. It's going to be interesting to see if the Russians can get to Atlanta.
Have you ever visited the planet Earth?Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
I'm pretty ignorant on the entire Caucasus, but I'd pick option #3 outlined in Marshall Murat's post. Clinging on to regions that don't want you is:
A) immoral
B) usually not worth it, anyway
Plus it seems rather far fetched to assume a country like Georgia could take and keep a region that wants to be part of Russia and wich Russia is willing to defend if necessary.
Does anyone know how the south Ossetians came to being Russian citizens?
As far as I know, Russia basically gave those Ossetians who wanted it a Russian pasport. Makes for an excellent casus belli now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenring
Like people in East Karelia were Russian Citizens in 1938 (roll eyes).
I think it's Russian citizens living in Georgia (KGB plants???) who work there, and some have been killed (perhaps justly, maybe injustly, who knows?). SO Russia has responded like the Americans did in Latin America, Brits in India and Africa.
Russian forces exchange heavy fire with Georgians.
Yes, I know, it's just a small gripe I have with the news service..."Video of Russian tanks rolling in to South Ossetia"...well, partially, but the video is mostly 2S3 Akatsiyas, BMDs, and BMPs. Anyways, moving on. ~;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshal Murat
That's actually not true. Firstly, South Ossetia is partly under Georgian control. Secondly, Georgia did break the ceasefire, as outlined in the article. They admit having done so.Quote:
The two 'countries' mentioned, Abkanaz (or something similar) and Southern Ossetia are regions that are under Georgian control. One region, specifically Southern Ossetia, agreed to a ceasefire, but then attacked Georgian forces.
The Georgians launched an operation after a ceasefire had been agreed to.Quote:
Originally Posted by BBC
If anyone intervenes, they will be a fool to do so.Quote:
2. Fight back hard and fast, driving back Rebel and Russian forces, fighting them off until outside intervention.
Not sure, though I suspect the North Ossetians and the close relations the South Ossetians have to Russia must have something to do with it. Besides, it's handy to have a good passport that lets you travel if you're rebelling against the country that issues your other one...Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenring
When we mettion Russian peacekeepers, are we talking about UN backed peacekeepers or Russian backed troops keeping the peace.
Russian-backed troops keeping Georgians away from a Russian-backed seperatist region.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mailman653
When I said 'outside intervention' I can understand how it could be taken as "military intervention". However, I meant intervention by outside groups to prevent further escalation and killing, which might include military intervention, or it could be diplomatic intervention.Quote:
fighting them off until outside intervention.
Otherwise, thank you for correcting my mistake.
I'm guessing it was probably done so that Russia would have casus belli against Georgia when the Georgians inevitably tried to retake the region. :yes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenring
Thanks! With a few notable exceptions, Russian armor is very awkward looking. I always enjoy seeing it in action, though. Looks like they had those '90's fully decked out for low intensity urban combat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
Ideally, Georgia takes its hits and moves on. Who's right and who's wrong here is damned murky - suffice to say that those suffering are South Ossetian civilians, be they Russian or Georgian. If Georgia does decide to put up a serious fight it'll be shown just how toothless NATO is against Russia for all to see - they can't and won't intervene. So I hope it doesn't come to that.
So is this a case of appeasement by allowing Russia to absorb two areas? Is it a case of simple peace-keeping?
It's more like the Anchluss than the annexation of Czechoslovakia, if you want to compare. To my knowledge, if two countries want to join, it is not our right to stop them. That is up to the people of those nations. If they didn't want to join and Russia forced them, that would be something else altogether.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshal Murat
The assasination Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo was all it took for WW1. This is gonna be bad...Quote:
Originally Posted by {BHC} King Jan III Sobieski
Does Georgia still claim ownership over South Ossetia?Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
Indeed it does. Does South Ossetia want to be part of Georgia or part of Russia?Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
It wants to be part of Russia, I believe, but that's not the issue. When you get down to it, it's essentially Russia absorbing a chunk of land at Georgia's expense. It would be more of the Anschluss if South Ossetia was an independent nation and they had agreed to Russian hegemony at the expense of the Allies (in this case, Georgia). This smacks more of the Sudentenland to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
Eh? Are you aware of the fact that it's Georgia attacking in South Ossetia?
Well, South Ossetia maintains more independance than the Sudetenland, so I think somewhere in between is about right. But it's really too bad for Georgia. They can't win by force, and the people in the region they want are rejecting them.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
I wonder sometimes about the people here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarmatian to TSM
Indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
Let's hope this is the only WWII comparison that needs to be made.
I don't care who started but I would rather support theory that it was Russian side.
Some months ago Georgia , Azerbeijan and Turkey signed treaty about international gas pipe beetwen Azerbeijan and Turkey - it could break Russian position into Europe.
But if we have war into Georgia.....
But I think we all have to agree on one thing : Georgians have eggs - they are not afraid and fight.
Let's hope. But Georgia started this current conflict, and if Russia wants to finish it, let them.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
Georgia did not start this. South Ossetia is Georgian territory in rebellion. Russia should understand this as they would flip out if another nation sent troops into Chechnya after giving Chechen civilians free passports and declaring them citizens of the other country.
The U.S. would have been pissed if the U.K. declared the Confederacy an off-shoot of the British Empire.
Russia does not respect Georgian sovereignty and is attempting to get the ball rolling before Georgia enters NATO. This is also one of the many actions they have been taking to spit in the face of the U.S. and E.U. over missile defense. Russia is rapidly entering the fray as a big bad guy in world affairs - Iranian Uranium Program support, enabling of the Sudanese in Darfur, Russian arms supply to Venezuela, resumption of nuclear flights between Russia and Cuba, and now the invasion and annexation of land in a sovereign country.
They may need to have their noses bloodied very soon. Hopefully Georgia can do that for us.
Georgia began an operation against South Ossetia after they agreed to a second ceasefire. Georgia started this round.Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
Russian population: ~142 mill.Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
Georgian population: 4-5 mill.
Wish them good luck.
Georgia broke a ceasefire and admit that, but they did not ignite the conflict here. South Ossetians seem to have done this and inflamed the conflict by destroying a Georgian APC. This is what the U.S. maintains as well. This is Russian opportunism and i'm suprised that this is not your interpretation of it, EMFM. They will use this opportunity to sever Abhkazia and South Ossetia from Georgia once and for all. Former Soviet satellites should understand how ridiculous this is.Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
Unless Russia is planning on going to war with Georgia as a whole they could potentially be bloodied.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
Osetia is part of Georgia practically under Russian ocupation....
Russia started it all.
Howza 'bout we blame the Mongols for pushing the Ossetians into Georgia?
Novogrod for forming the basis for the Russian Empire, which spread to the Caucaus Mountain region?
This is very serious indeed.
I just hope that monkey, that the Americans call Bush, see's through Georgia's manipulation of America and NATO and doesn't back them in the slightest. Afterall, the Georgians had no need to go back into the region after so many years.
Well, by breaking the ceasefire they started the present conflict.Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
Certainly they are taking advantage of the situtation. Any country would do the same. Georgia attempted to take advantage by attacking South Ossetia, and they failed when the big kid on the block stepped in to take advantage. The little kid (Ossetia) seems to prefer the big kid to the medium kid.Quote:
This is Russian opportunism and i'm suprised that this is not your interpretation of it, EMFM.
Why is that a problem if that is what Abkhazia and South Ossetia want? Because it is the Russians doing it?Quote:
They will use this opportunity to sever Abhkazia and South Ossetia from Georgia once and for all.
My point is that this is a local conflict and no threat whatsoever to the Western world. I don't consider Georgia particularily useful, and I've lost all sympathy I may have had for them when they attacked Ossetia after agreeing to a ceasefire hours before.
Even the smallest grain of rice can tip the scales - MulanQuote:
My point is that this is a local conflict and no threat whatsoever to the Western world.
It's a matter of principle for me. It has raised an interesting philosophical question.
Why would I support Kosovo and Tibet independence and decry Ossetian and Abhakazian independence? I would say that it's because Tibet and Kosovo wish to be free and independent nations. Ossetia and Abhakazia (sp?) wish to be a part of Russia. It's a dangerous precedent. Were there a significant majority of illegal Mexican immigrants to move into Southern Texas, and then settle there? They might ask to leave this Union, and join the nation of Mexico! It would be absurd for me to allow the Mexican immigrants any right to rejoin Mexico. The same, to me, applies to Ossetia and Abhakazia.
Seeing Georgia break a ceasefire is disgraceful, but considering the swift (surprising swift) Russian response, not only in Ossetia but across the nation of Georgia? Were Russia to march in only to Ossetia and attempt to prevent further Georgian advances, and then attempt to argue for mediation, that I would understand. However, continued Russian aggression is disconcerting. Georgia is a small nation and the seemingly large Russian response makes me feel bad for Georgia. Call it the "David vs. Goliath" mentality of Americans.
Only if you let it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshal Murat
It's not really surprisingly swift. Russia already had forces there, and when the order comes, they can move quickly. That is the whole point of keeping a prepared military - to respond swiftly.Quote:
Seeing Georgia break a ceasefire is disgraceful, but considering the swift (surprising swift) Russian response, not only in Ossetia but across the nation of Georgia?
I also see it as a David vs. Goliath battle, only I see South Ossetia as David, Georgia as Goliath, and something much larger coming to help South Ossetia when it requires it.Quote:
Georgia is a small nation and the seemingly large Russian response makes me feel bad for Georgia. Call it the "David vs. Goliath" mentality of Americans.
Russian peacekeeper troops in South Ossetia obvioualy failed in their duty to keep the peace since the Georgian APC was destroyed. South Ossetia is Georgia's territory, they have every right to defend themselves within it.
South Ossetia is just an excuse for Russia to invade or at least impose its influence over Georgia.
I'm laughing at you right now Comrade. Come on, its absurd! I mean, you can't judge the book by the portade. Communism is something more than the party. You don't need just the party, but you also need a lot of conditions to make it work. Well, I think its my opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by rvg
I've got to agree with TuffStuff; I see this as Russian action to prevent Georgia from joining NATO. I don't think they give one care in the world for the Ossetians (sp?).
Georgia helped us in Iraq and were looking to join NATO. I think we need to support them morally and to show Russia it can't bully everyone around anymore.
CR
He isn't saying Russia is communist. "Putin's Soviet Union" wouldn't be communist.Quote:
Originally Posted by Caius
I doubt the Russians care much for the Ossetians either. But the Ossetians within South Ossetia want the Russians, and the Ossetians within Russia want the Ossetians outside of Russia. Russia has good relations with Ossetia, and it is natural from them to aid Ossetia in its hour of need.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
I think that some people are missing the point. Georgia attacked South Ossetia and broke the peacekeeping deal they had with the Russians and the Ossetians. Russia did not cross the border until this was done.Quote:
I think we need to support them morally and to show Russia it can't bully everyone around anymore.
EMFM, why do you hate freedom? :inquisitive:
I don't, I love it. Which is why I am supporting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who want to be free of Georgia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshal Murat
It's a shame all three parties can't lose.
Alexander, I have no idea how serious you are, but just wait until the EU gets involved.
It might just get worse.
If everyone is smart, we will let this regional conflict die away. This isn't worth a larger war. But then again, less has sparked much more.
It's getting worse. Though I suspect incidents like those mentioned in the article have been going on for several hours at least, a full military conflict between Georgia and Russia will ensue unless the UN gets something together quickly. I've already said that I believe South Ossetia is in the right in this conflict, but I'm still hoping it doesn't escalate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars
The UN? Hahahahahaha!!!:laugh4:
Riiight, the UN is going to "swiftly" move in on this one!!! Man, no offense to you Mr Martian but there is a better possibility of Boy George going straight than the UN doing anything but talk in this one.