https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nted-says-iran
A new revolution is brewing?
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nted-says-iran
A new revolution is brewing?
Often the advantage when we end sanctions - things improve for the locals and blaming everything on outside problems doesn't work.
The Guard and Army are more than capable of imposing their will if they want - they've been training in Syria and Iraq for extended periods of time. Hopefully things will return to how they were in the 1960's.
~:smoking:
My sig I didn't know I still had is relevant again, go team Persia I hope it works this time and I hope socalled quality-media covers it this time for the bedtimestorykids that watch/read them
I had heard one of the usual government pronouncements that police violence in Iran was the result of some kind of outside agitators stirring things up.
I rolled my eyes, as I usually do at such things.
However, I got to thinking....
We have Saudi proxies (at least by some definitions) clashing with Iranian regulars in Syria and Saudi regulars clashing with Iranian proxies in Yemen. We know from previous episodes over that last three years that not all in Iran are content.
Might it ACTUALLY be outside agitators for once? Trying the RomeTW 'send 4 spies to force the town to rebel' ploy? I am not sure.
Of course there are foreign agitators, but that doesn't mean that the uprising was a black op. Foreign involvement in such cases is limited to adding fuel to the flames.
https://twitter.com/Zolfegar12/statu...36369990070278
The democratically elected government and its foreign policy enjoys approval by the majority, while the protests are mostly civil in nature.
http://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/f...L%20-%20sm.pdf
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b06d1621b9a019
Iran is divided, but if the American war hawks hope for a pro-American revolution, then they are going to be disappointed.
http://www.dw.com/en/iran-protests-r...rce/a-41974090
Has their ever been a pro-American revolution that we did not sponsor/enact for ourselves? I cannot recall one.
Unless the USA has massively upped its game the odds of them having a decent number of people that could infiltrate Iran is close to nil. Imagining that Saudi Arabia has such people - such as some of the 2% of Arabs in Iran - is much easier to believe. And they must be itching to bring the hurt home whilst Yemen is ongoing.
~:smoking:
I am not a hawk and not American, but if something is going to change it will be in Iran and nowhere else. Iranians are different from other people in the middle-east they are much more free-thinking. Maybe I am overly optimistic and I am most certainly biased but still, go team Persia salafist those mullahs, hard deep and unsafeQuote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
I know you mean well, but calling Iran as Persia is a bit insulting towards Iranians. By the way, the name changed by the Pahlavis not the revolutionaries.
Anyway, as the research proves, the foreign policy and the government enjoy immense popularity. Iranians may be relatively progressive, but keep in mind that their regime is also progressive and liberal for the region's standards.
Given Iran is the major power of 30% of Muslims they are surely our natural ally (not having to deal with the entire Middle East would definitely be better of course). The USA needs to get over that it utterly botched its relationship with propping up the Shah and frankly engage as suits its own interests.
Even for Israel, Iran is a smaller threat than everyone else that surrounds them; blustery rhetoric aside, Saudi Arabia has exported a lot more extremist religion than Iran has and apparently we are bestest mates. Hezbollah in Jordan / Syria is definitely supported by Iran but what with the whole embargoes for a few decades they take allies where they can.
~:smoking:
I know it's insulting and I don't care, but thanks for understanding that I don't mean any harm. Maybe it's a bit too close to me I don't know, at least I know that am biased that's something. But I really think that Iranians can be our best friends there, they are no clueless goatherders or Bedouin who lost their camel and don't know where it is and somehow wash up here
I think you meant to say Lebanon, not Jordan. The interests of Iran and the US are contradictory and they cannot be conciliated.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
The discord stems from the nationalisation of Western companies which exploited the human and natural resources of Iran without paying almost anything and also concerns the geopolitics of the Middle East.
Iran and her allies are definitely the biggest threats Israel faces, a fact that explains why Israel has gladly supported terrorists, including al-Qaeda to undermine Iran.
The only neighboring governments with hostile relations with Israel are Syria and perhaps Lebanon, both of which are extremely weak compared to Israel or even Iran.
They are already our friends. Disagreement with the current aggressive policy and bitterness over the past misdeeds of western governments doesn't mean they dislike Westerners, like you only dislike the government and not them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony
Iran is not solely responsible for the hostile diplomatic relations and, given the immense support the Shah and Saddam received from the west, I would argue that Iran isn't even the primary responsible.
Can you explain this?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony
Sorry - Lebanon, not Jordan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
The first boils down to money and often can therefore be sorted out with money. We have no current innate hostility - as long as we leave each other alone then that's fine and if we can trade that will enable us to spend money on our long term enemies. We managed to reconcile with China after a shared history of humiliation and a side order of slaughter. They don't like us but tolerate us - especially if we don't interfere.
The latter is definitely a large issue. But again, geopolitics - especially in the Middle East - is fluid, much more so than North Korea for example and we continue to hope that this will sort itself out. Whether they'd believe that all of a sudden we've stopped trying to throttle their economy and it is not a prelude to invasion. But since they are viewed as Infidels by Sunnis (as mostly are we).
So the rhetoric on both sides is contradictory - rather like the UK and the USSR. But the two joined as allies after a far longer period of conflict as it suited both parties.
~:smoking:
What you already know about me, why explain. You know I have zero respect for the islamic world so why ask. Any humanist should but they are too busy with gender-types and that sort of things.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
http://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/...13/09/FDTD.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12522848
Gene Sharp is the American dictators fear more than any CIA operative or member of SEAL Team 6. In the 21st century, all the dark alleys where revolutionaries meet are on the internet. Rebels don't need a harbor full of British tea or a catch phrase like "Land and Freedom" any more. Sharp's book is the one-stop-shop to kick start the party. Free speech is the thorn in every autocrat's side, even the liberal, progressive ones. The first Green revolution in Iran followed over 100 of the lessons from the book. Cell phones and social media aren't just for organizing mob dances. When mass demonstrations happen all over a country, you can bet somebody bookmarked a page in "From Dictatorship to Democracy". Shut down the dictatorship machinery for a few days and then we'll see how popular the regime really is.
Much simpler I think, loose the midd,e-class and it's seeeeya
I wish Dariush was here he's from Iran, I could be totally wrong about everything and can't know what I say is true
You mean this research?Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
http://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/f...L%20-%20sm.pdf
It was published in January 2016, so it was conducted as late as December 2015 and perhaps earlier. During the two years that have elapsed since then the attitudes might have changed.
Here's what Freedom House has on Iran:
https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2017/iran
I suppose a regime only needs a score of 17 to be liberal, progressive and popular.
There are more than 150k Persian/Farsi speaking households in the USA by our latest census. Some families emigrated during friendlier relations in the 60s and 70s. Some are Baha'i which has not always had smooth times in Iran. Others have emigrated since.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
The USA, by all printed accounts, spends far more of its effort on electronic and space-based espionage rather than human intelligence. But the raw resources are there if we so chose.
It is theoretically possible... but it is something the CIA has a history of failing on over a course of 50+ years. Always money and SIGINT over HUMINT since it is shiny and is less likely to have a downside such as assets being captured. So Congress will write large cheques for the next shiny satellite to ensure there are no terrorists on the roof of houses overseas.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
~:smoking:
The USA isn't going to train Iranian immigrants to form a counter-revolution. That's the classic "us vs. them" lies that the regime in Iran uses to justify its existence. "You must support the efforts of the government to resist the Americans and their proxy Israel or they will destroy us." Iranians live under a total autocracy. The political resistance movement that began in 2009 doesn't need our support and most certainly doesn't want it. Freedom isn't about agreeing with the USA or adopting our culture. A free, democratic Iran may never be America's friend and that is fine with me.
Didn't they install the Shah to protect British financial interests in the first place? :inquisitive:Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Along with other Oil companies. All who lost their assets. And I imagine the USA was looking forward to their own interests as the British Empire crumbled and they'd rather the USSR didn't stroll in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Husar
But this is some time in the past and many other intractable foes have come to peace - France and Germany for one simple example. We don't keep hearing about Verdun where more lives and money was blown to pieces.
~:smoking:
Actually, the USA was founded by Masons who are nothing more than an evil tool of the Illuminati and that's why we control the world. ;)
Meanwhile, a failed script for the X Files isn't going to win brownie points for a dictatorship in decline. A sob story of how this despotic regime is just a product of western meddling isn't going to keep them on life support. The "unrest" is actual, political resistance. The chains are breaking.
That would be cool because it would mean that the Dutch control everything. But we don't
That has been the rap against CIA and 'No Such' for some time. It certainly has a good measure of truth behind it, as our brilliant HUMINT work prior to the invasion of Iraq under Bush43 suggests.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
I would caution everyone, however, that groups like the CIA seldom publish their successes [wholly understandably I believe you will all agree], only their failures are noted.
Fine by me. I like my theocracies to be measured in hectares and their militaries wielding pikes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Agent Miles
Oh yeah. Putting the kybosh on their elected leader and setting up the Shah was VERY much about dominoes and stopping the godless commies (not that the USA was ever shy about working out a business deal pretty much anywhere). We tolerated some pretty slimy 'allies' merely because they were rabid anti-communard kleptocratic murdering dictators rather than Stalin-aping murdering dictators.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
May cynism serve you well, you are going to need it
Freedom House is a joke paid by the U.S. government to paint a black image of any regime that said government dislikes. We are talking about some "experts" that they consider Russia as democratic as a confederation of tribal monarchies.Quote:
Originally Posted by Agent Miles
It has a particularly bad record in Iran, blamed by genuinely humanitarian organisations for actually undermining the issue of civic liberties inside the country.
The good thing is that Freedom House is as subtle as a Khmer Rouge poster. Their linked article about Iran prompted me to spam a bunch of butthurt pro-Shah emigré slogans in tweeter. That's partisanship, not professionalism.
Yes, the West should only do business with the nice people in the world. (sigh)
The despicables the USA "tolerated" had a shelf life that we recognized, having been revolutionaries ourselves, once. Taiwan, South Korea, Panama etc. may not have democracy because we are the puppet-masters, but they also didn't have some kind of Pol Pot butcher a third of their citizens. Some choices didn't have Utopia on the list.
Crandar, Freedom House gave the US an 89, 10 points less than Canada. My government better not have paid for that. It listed the Russian Collusion crap as a reason.
If everything is rosy in Iran, then let's see what happens when the Revolutionary Guard back down.
How is this relevant to my criticism of Freedom House? I questioned the objectivity of your source, not the morality of the American foreign policy.
Most Empires have only the justification that they are big and powerful and that's the end of it. The USA often goes on about the whole "land of the free" line and some people think that they should follow this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Agent Miles
Of course, they never have in their entire history and enjoyed the same methods of disenfranchising and when required killing those who don't want to join Team USA. Setting the bar as low as "hey - we didn't support killing 1/3 of the population" makes most of the things the British Empire did practically benign.
~:smoking:
Crandar, the link is an advertisement for the Financial Times and FH gave Russia a score of 20. Hardly a score for a democracy. Maybe you have some real evidence that I would gladly read and respond to.
Rory, real Americans made real choices that didn't always help real problems. I certainly don't agree with all of the choices we made. Which nation has a perfect track record?
I copy-pasted the article. My second point is that Freedom House, financed by the government, considers Russia as democratic as UAE, which is preposterous. The Wikipedia link I provided is fully cited.
Established by a former first lady, they are pretty open about who finances them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Financial Times
Here's what one might call real evidence:
https://freedomhouse.org/sites/defau...ments_2016.pdf
So yes, FH gets government grants. Just about every organization in the US does too. That doesn't make them a joke. Ron Paul's statement is from 14 years ago. Maybe they got it right since then. Read the assessment of Iran from FH and present evidence to the contrary. Besides FH efforts in those countries are shadowing what Gene Sharp's book does for free.
I'm sure it includes outside agitators.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Russia has opened the Pandora Box here with its cyberwar investments (and this is exactly what cyberwar looks like, not the sci-fi stock of explodifying aircraft or the power grid from afar). Everyone from China down is moving to partake of the Meddling Pie. We don't have a chance.
The Arabs in the southwest of Iran sure did disappoint Saddam Hussein in his expectation of Arab solidarity. Any Saudi interference probably isn't restricted along ethnic lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
You didn't mean it that way, but a Salafist takeover in Iran would certainly be a turn for the worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony
As for my other question, why do you hate Arabs so much compared to Persians?
A telling comment from a ___ over New Year's upon hearing of Russian material support for the Kim Jong Un regime: 'North Korea just wants nuclear weapons because America is trying to conquer it [sort of], and they have the right to manage to their own affairs and self-defense [arguably], so we shouldn't try to stop them from having nuclear weapons [there are other reasons to dislike a nuclear North Korea, and those who are helping them along...]. North Korea is defending itself, just like Israel defends itself from Iran.'Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
The obvious question to pose here is, does Iran similarly have a right to "defend itself" from Israel and the United States? Hezbollah is an Iranian creation, and the worst thing you can say about Iran's foreign policy is that it wants to control Syria and Lebanon, thereby access to the East Med coast, and are willing to fund international crime and terrorism to do it. This is a sticking point on the same level as nuclear proliferation, and a much better argument for a US counter to Iran than "they say mean things about Israel". And as far as I am aware, Iran has never directly attacked the territory of Israel, but Israel has directly attacked the territory of Iran. But the United States has been unfair and hypocritical in its disposition toward Iran, more so than is justifiable through Iran's fundamental governance or policies.
An ideal show of force in the Middle East, if such a thing exists, might have been to demand mutual deconfliction and normalization of relations between Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran as a prerequisite to full participation in the American order. We meet some of our objectives for the region, and we don't have all of the aforementioned playing us against Russia for profit. If the US guarantees the peace (between states), then the various parties have no business cultivating clients and proxies anyway. Probably not feasible today - maybe in 2002.
CIA operations in the Vietnam War were "technically" very successful. So were CIA coups and assassinations. Unfortunately, CIA successes have tended to be much worse for the world than CIA failures.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Admittedly, our coterie of kleptocratic thugs murdered too many innocents, but decidedly LESS than the Stalinist thugs. Sadly, that means they were "better" for some values of better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Agent Miles
The USA gets derided for being too jingoistic and naive in foreign affairs AND for being too cynical and calculating. I think the world would truly be happiest if we voted "abstain" hereafter in the UN and just funded what they asked us to fund without upsetting everyone.
Europe was happiest with us under Carter, since he had the only truly consistent and principle-driven foreign policy we've displayed over the last half century, with his human rights centered approach. Of course, we see how well that worked out in the long run ~:rolleyes:
The political resistance has nothing to do with Iranian foreign policy toward the US or Israel or support for Hezbollah. The people want to be free. Students are jailed for having a party. Only opposition candidates approved by the government can run. It's an autocracy.
Seamus, "all evil needs to succeed is for good men to do nothing."
To understand America's place in the world, you need to remember that Carter's administration was not at all out of step with American post-war consensus foreign policy. I'm sure Kissinger would describe it something like, rearranging the deck of the ship of state rather than changing its course. If an American president must propagate war crimes and crimes against humanity in due course, then Carter is as guilty as any of them, even if others have done worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
http://foreignpolicy.com/2010/01/21/...-jimmy-carter/
For your first point in all fairness we do do both and that is normal for a great power. The wonderful irony of it all is the criticism leveled at us since WW2 is essentially the same criticism we leveled at the British and French during the previous century.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
As for Europe being happiest, I'd say they were happiest with Kennedy in charge. The mix of optimism, energy, and purpose mixed together with a bit of resolve let them love us. There's a reason people know the "Ich bin ein Berliner" speech as opposed to anything Carter said. Additionally, his evangelical angle is very un-European.
Only thing I'll really credit Carter with accomplishing though is the Egypt-Israeli peace which is still in effect. Having the Suez be safe and open for business is a boon for Europe's economy. The previous Arab-Israeli wars closed it for years at a time.
As far as enacting a liberal foreign policy, the US was probably at its most focused, driven and effective under the Clinton-Blair axis. Blair is included because he was the one who drove the foreign policy in this manner. Unfortunately the legacy has been blotted by the Iraq debacle, which was driven by Bush and his neocons. However, Blair cannot be wholly excused from this, since he genuinely believed in the intervention, if not in its execution.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Judging by recreational marijuana legalized in California, you do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony
Which brings up the obvious. Millions of liberals are dazed and confused about how the electoral college works. They seem to have a loss of memory as to how Gore's own Presidential run ended. Add to this paranoid delusions about Hitler and Nazis. What could explain this? Hmmm...Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilrandir
I think all of washington has been in dire need of some mellow yellow for quite awhile.