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Coronavirus / COVID-19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4D2jRkcH34
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-2oJzVqrxg
This guy began to report about this outbreak turning into a pandemic since last month. He mentions Thailand still accepting travellers from China. South Korea also still accepts travellers from China. It seems that the South Korean president is hoping for Xi Jinping to visit in order to raise the South Korean president's popularity and win the general election. The trade volume between the two countries is massive. Also, the South Korean president is pro-Communist Party of China. Many Koreans demand the removal of the South Korean president.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oKV5MK2bdw
And this guy talks about the economic impact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm44WVCqaRs
According to some of the whistleblowers in Wuhan, 5 million Wuhan people evacuated the city before the quarantine. The guy in the video below is one of the first whistleblowers after the doctors got arrested to hide the outbreak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va6qptJzlyc
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Watching the Trump press conference about it today, and I am fairly confident that the US is not ready for this should it hit the US in large numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
People are infectious about 2 weeks before they show any symptoms. Symptoms are basically flu-like. And for half the world it is winter.
It is spread via the airborne route. One sneeze can go 8 metres and the droplets stay airborne for 10 minutes. Masks do little really. Slightly better on someone whose got it.
Airborne diseases can not realistically be stopped. Ebola was close contact and that took ages. Hell, HIV is only close contact of bodily fluids and we can't block that spreading!
Every country is doing lip service to the disease. Because doing something that works would cripple the country economically: shut all non essential flights and ships. Close all borders for all but essential travel. Decontaminate things that have to cross the border. Hell, probably have internal borders as well in all but the smallest countries. Forcibly quarantine everyone who has come near an infected person until they are cleared by one (preferably two or more) lab tests.
If it gets bad (and I really hope it doesn't) many will die - hopefully just in the thousands. Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society. There are not enough ventilators or trained staff to deal with the patients - let alone proper kit to protect the staff (who would be insane to work in anything less than a proper airtight suit) - are they to be forced in at gun point to work?
I do pity the CDC et al. 99.99% of the time it will be a different case of the sniffles. And they will be pilloried for making such a fuss. But who knows if or when it could mutate to something far more deadly and then they'll be crucified for not doing more earlier (even though they can hardly mobilise the National Guard).
~:smoking:
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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many will die - hopefully just in the thousands. Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society
Really?:inquisitive:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate
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Eighty-seven percent of patients were aged 30 to 79 years (38,680 cases). This age-group was the most affected by a wide margin, followed by ages 20 to 29 (3,619 cases, or 8%), those 80 and older (1,408 cases, or 3%), and 1% each in ages less than 10 and 10 to 19 years.
30 to 79 by a "wide margin". While us "old" people are certainly more at risk, the death toll is hardly confined to those whose deaths would be "no biggie to society". And COVID-19 is just getting started outside of China. The age group death ratios may change from those quoted....
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
ReluctantSamurai
Really?:inquisitive:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate
30 to 79 by a "wide margin". While us "old" people are certainly more at risk, the death toll is hardly confined to those whose deaths would be "no biggie to society". And COVID-19 is just getting started outside of China. The age group death ratios may change from those quoted....
Old or with co-morbidities. When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking.
~:smoking:
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
At least the fit and healthy wont have spent the last 4 years in gore filled ditches this time.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Greyblades
At least the fit and healthy wont have spent the last 4 years in gore filled ditches this time.
Ironically enough, the US military (who had less than 18 months of "gore-filled ditch" duty compared to the almost 4 years for some of those fighting for "Blighty") had a higher rate of influenza infection than the UK's military. The USA experienced somewhere between 20% (hospitalized & recovered or died) and an estimated 40% (milder cases, many never hospitalized, with the really mild ones -- pardon the pun -- soldiering on) of active forces. UK rates were lower, with 303k hospitalizations among 4.6 million (USA had over the same hospitalization and a higher overall infection rate despite having 750,000 fewer under arms). US training camps were apparently among the highest infection rates of all.
At least COVID-19 does not have the deadly "second phase" associated with the 1918 outbreak.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
rory_20_uk
Old or with co-morbidities. When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking.
~:smoking:
Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Hooahguy
Watching the Trump press conference about it today, and I am fairly confident that the US is not ready for this should it hit the US in large numbers.
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Originally Posted by
rory_20_uk
People are infectious about 2 weeks before they show any symptoms. Symptoms are basically flu-like. And for half the world it is winter.
It is spread via the airborne route. One sneeze can go 8 metres and the droplets stay airborne for 10 minutes. Masks do little really. Slightly better on someone whose got it.
Airborne diseases can not realistically be stopped. Ebola was close contact and that took ages. Hell, HIV is only close contact of bodily fluids and we can't block that spreading!
Every country is doing lip service to the disease. Because doing something that works would cripple the country economically: shut all non essential flights and ships. Close all borders for all but essential travel. Decontaminate things that have to cross the border. Hell, probably have internal borders as well in all but the smallest countries. Forcibly quarantine everyone who has come near an infected person until they are cleared by one (preferably two or more) lab tests.
Trump press conference yesterday:
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President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that the U.S. is “very, very ready” for whatever the coronavirus threat brings, and he put his vice president in charge of overseeing the nation’s response.
More:
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In a muddled, dishonest, rambling news conference from the White House press briefing room President Donald Trump for over an hour talked to reporters Wednesday evening about coronavirus, in an attempt to stave off three days of market near-collapse. He lied. He twisted the truth. He displayed little grasp of basic facts. He didn’t let the experts run the show.
[...]
The markets on Thursday rewarded his efforts with the DOW posting the largest single day loss in history.
[...]
“The losses mark the worse week for U.S. stocks since the financial crash of 2008.
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The Trump administration has known about coronavirus since at least December 1, 2019. It did nothing until January 29, when the White House posted a memo announcing President Trump’s Coronavirus Task Force. The task force did not even include the Surgeon General, making it clear the White House had little interest in communicating to the American people any sense of competence or delivering even an iota of public education.
[...]
Trump returned after two days of about 1000 point drops in the DOW each day. He hastily called a press conference for Wednesday at 6 PM. Just after it began at 6:30 PM it became clear there was not going to be a coronavirus czar, there was no real plan, other than to put in charge Vice President Mike Pence. Even a Fox News pundit eschewed that decision, noting Pence doesn’t believe in science, is not a doctor, and has a horrific record when it comes to public health – he oversaw an explosive HIV outbreak during which he decided to pray for guidance rather than listen to what experts told him he had to do.
And now, as the markets tumble, as Trump lies about the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. and pretends that there might not be “community spread” – the first case of which the CDC literally announced just after Trump’s news conference, it’s become even more clear Trump and his administration aren’t interested in protecting the American public, but rather, they are interesting in appearing to be doing “things” that might make it appear they are protecting the American public – when their goal is to protect the markets.
That’s why Vice President Pence’s first act as head of the Coronavirus Task Force was to add top and Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to the Task Force, along with the Surgeon General (finally).
Absent from the list: any public health experts, any crisis experts, anyone not from the Trump administration, the CDC, or the NIH. In other words, there is no one on the Trump Coronavirus Task Force the Trump administration cannot control.
That’s dangerous. It’s dangerous because the administration has already told the federal government all communication, to reporters and others, is to go through Vice President Pence, and it’s dangerous because there is no one who will tell Trump or Pence anything they don’t want to hear.
Vice President Mike Pence:
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In late 2014, health officials belatedly became aware of an HIV outbreak in Scott County, Indiana. With fewer than 24,000 people, this rural county rarely saw a single new case in a year, according to The New York Times. But by the time government agencies tried to stop the transmission of the virus a few months later, some 215 people had tested positive.
One man seemed responsible for needlessly letting the situation get out of control: Indiana’s then-Governor Mike Pence. In 2015, when the virus was seeming to rapidly move through networks of people who use intravenous drugs, even the reluctant local sheriff encouraged the governor to authorize a clean-needle exchange, a proven tool to reduce such an outbreak.
But, as the Times reported when he became Donald Trump’s running mate, “Mr. Pence, a steadfast conservative, was morally opposed to needle exchanges on the grounds that they supported drug abuse.” His opposition was based on an incorrect belief; while research has long shown that needle exchanges do reduce HIV and hepatitis, it has also shown that they do not encourage drug use.
Pence went home to “pray on it” before he decided to approve a limited needle exchange. Many observers believed that the program acted as a kind of public-health Hail Mary pass, staunching a catastrophic wound that would have gotten much worse.
:uhoh:
What is your professional opinion on these developments rory?
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Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society.
Hmmm...
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking
Hope your leaders are more intelligent and informed than ours:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-2...asset/12006078
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And when a journalist pointed out that COVID-19 has a fatality rate of around 2-3 per cent, while the flu is about 0.1 per cent, Trump disagreed. "The flu is much higher than that," he said.
:rolleyes: Spend less time on Twitter blaming the Dems for Wall Streets woes, and more time consulting with health care experts Donnie Baby.....
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"When they look at the statements made by the people standing behind those podiums, I think that has a huge effect."
The problem with that logic is that the debate happened on Tuesday night (local time), after the markets closed.
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"And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."
Of course anyone with even a cursory knowledge of immunology knows the process of creating a vaccine takes months...
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"Nothing is inevitable," he stressed. "There's a chance it could be worse. There's a chance it could get fairly, substantially worse, but nothing is inevitable."
Even as COVID-19 has spread to 50 countries, South Korea announced 505 new cases, Italy reported 650 cases as of Thursday night — up from 400 a day earlier — with 17 deaths, etc., etc., etc.....
Panic time? Perhaps not yet. Time to prepare for the inevitable? Yep.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
Ironically enough, the US military (who had less than 18 months of "gore-filled ditch" duty compared to the almost 4 years for some of those fighting for "Blighty") had a higher rate of influenza infection than the UK's military. The USA experienced somewhere between 20% (hospitalized & recovered or died) and an estimated 40% (milder cases, many never hospitalized, with the really mild ones -- pardon the pun -- soldiering on) of active forces. UK rates were lower, with 303k hospitalizations among 4.6 million (USA had over the same hospitalization and a higher overall infection rate despite having 750,000 fewer under arms). US training camps were apparently among the highest infection rates of all.
Insert joke about american army rations here.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.
First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.
Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?
Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.
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Originally Posted by
ReluctantSamurai
Hope your leaders are more intelligent and informed than ours
One website baldly states the government weigh up the health, social and economic facets. So they are currently accepting a few will die rather than loose economic GDP. So, yeah, Governments around the world so far are viewing the number of deaths acceptable compared to the potential economic downturn.
~:smoking:
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
rory_20_uk
First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.
Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?
Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.
You're using an over-wide brush in painting your picture of healthcare in America. All of the issues you note are, indeed, problematic -- but some of them are hardly controllable and you've left other concerns off that might be controllable yet bother us as is.
Our healthcare system offers free childhood vaccinations to all (though we do not force the anti-vaxers to be vaccinated and systemic pressures pushing them to vaccinate anyway are limited). Were some virus to reach crisis proportions this same system would be used to provide vaccines as needed and there likely would be legislation passed to fund it for all. Our love of the "rugged individualist" is not a suicide pact. Moreover, any person can present themselves to an emergency room and receive care, even if unable to pay (though the system is cumbersome and reactive instead of proactive -- which I acknowledge may be costing us as much if not more than funding across the board preventative medicine would save).
Firearms have been ubiquitous in the USA since before our inception. Sadly, they do make would-be suicides easier and more effective (as you are probably aware, some 60% of our firearm deaths are suicides). The original reasons for personal use of firearms and their ubiquity were food, protection, and as a final stopgap against government tyranny. The need provide food has, except for certain wilderness areas in Alaska, been obviated by modern food production and distribution. Protection, while still valid to some extent, no longer requires the local militia to be armed since the development of modern policing (both protection responses are reactive) and is simply a question of personal defense prior to a police response. The only continuing reason of the original three is the final stopgap against tyranny, which any number of people think is silly as they believe our government cannot degenerate into tyranny (some few think it already has, but all societies have their fringers). I am not opposed to firearms ownership as I like that final stopgap concept and also note that it makes my country functionally unconquerable by an external power that does not command the high orbitals. That said, I think we might want to seriously consider the requirement that firearms under 15" barrel length be banned/rendered inoperable. Protection against tyranny is best served by weapons that would be useful on a modern battlefield and your typical handgun is largely irrelevant in such a context -- yet it is handguns easily held and used that are the source of most of our suicides and homicides. I wonder how many would be prevented simply by the choice to violence requiring you to use both hands to lift a multiple pound object...
Racism and Xenophobia are problems in the USA, I agree. We have been working on them for hundreds of years and while we have enjoyed much success we are all too prone to backsliding on both. But you're well aware that these things exist in all cultures and that the USA's culture is, by no means, the worst practitioner of either. Do these weaknesses kill people? Absolutely, at least by laying the groundwork that allows people to be mistreated or forgotten or marginalized or even, at least in some cases, specifically targeted for violence. Both concerns are still being better addressed than they were when I was a child. I can assure you that my children are even less likely to further either and very likely to work against both as opportunity presents. Which is as it should be. These are cultural changes that require sustained effort over time. Cultures do not change by fiat.
You did not mention auto accidents (40k+ per year), or plain old accidents (120k+ per year), or overdoses (60-70k+ depending on year), or the metabolic syndrome stuff (800k+ per year) that underlies much of our healthcare risks on the national level (increase in sedentary, increase in calories, increase in simple carbs/fats as a ratio of diet).
I do agree with you as to government choices on same. Governments can never have the resources to address all concerns, so they MUST make calculated choices as to how much to spend on what and to counteract x, y. or z. That's unlikely to ever change. All we can do is help make those choices generate the greatest good for the cost expenditure made.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.
That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Beskar
That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.
Certainly, quarantining an entire city and telling the entire country to stay home as much as possible for several days are actions by a really frightened government. Governments don't do this over a flu.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
rory_20_uk
One website baldly states the government weigh up the health, social and economic facets. So they are currently accepting a few will die rather than loose economic GDP. So, yeah, Governments around the world so far are viewing the number of deaths acceptable compared to the potential economic downturn.
Which website? It seems rather difficult to plan to contain disease deaths within an "acceptable" range, and I don't know what an acceptable range would be as far as allaying social unrest and economic losses goes. And this imputed autotomic motivation seems to contrast with all the governments around the world who have taken drastic quarantine measures to the loss of billions in economic activity already.
The Soviet Union, by the way, ended WW2 with the same GDP it started with. Losing people is inherently draining of the economy.
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Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
Our healthcare system offers free childhood vaccinations to all (though we do not force the anti-vaxers to be vaccinated and systemic pressures pushing them to vaccinate anyway are limited).
Having started on the fringes of liberal upper-middle class lifestyle woo, anti-vax has come dangerously close to being Republican mainstream, right up to the White House.
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Were some virus to reach crisis proportions this same system would be used to provide vaccines as needed and there likely would be legislation passed to fund it for all. Our love of the "rugged individualist" is not a suicide pact.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/...ordable-trump/
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Let them eat cake.
This is effectively what Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told Americans when asked about whether a treatment for the fast-moving coronavirus will be affordable.
“We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can’t control that price because we need the private sector to invest,” he told a congressional committee on Wednesday in response to a question about affordability. “The priority is to get vaccines and therapeutics. Price controls won’t get us there.”
:blush:
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Moreover, any person can present themselves to an emergency room and receive care, even if unable to pay (though the system is cumbersome and reactive instead of proactive -- which I acknowledge may be costing us as much if not more than funding across the board preventative medicine would save).
And be billed thousands of dollars later, which discourages voluntary self-admission.
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The only continuing reason of the original three is the final stopgap against tyranny,
The problem remains that this was not an explicit motivation shared by many at the time in connection to firearms, and that in practice those availing themselves of this theoretical motivation to ownership are the likeliest candidates to become brownshirt paramilitaries themselves.
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also note that it makes my country functionally unconquerable by an external power that does not command the high orbitals.
We have oceans and breadth and nukes. No one has tried to conquer us in at least 200 years, and I see no reason why anyone would have the means or motivation to try. Vladimir Putin didn't need to fire a shot...
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I wonder how many would be prevented simply by the choice to violence requiring you to use both hands to lift a multiple pound object...
I'm not opposed to (trying to) eliminate handguns, but as a conservative you can think of numerous workarounds to such an approach, and accompanying perverse incentives. A comprehensive approach would be the most successful, and that requires acknowledging the depth of gun culture in this country and its umbilical attachment to the whole ecosystem of far-right ideology. As with so many other areas robust reform would have to be generationally transformative to the limit of the final decisive confrontation with the forces of Reaction sksdjdksk
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But you're well aware that these things exist in all cultures and that the USA's culture is, by no means, the worst practitioner of either.
Crucially, if liberal democracy (at the least) cannot persist in America then humanity at large is condemned. Our fate is enormously important to the rest of the world. Shining city and all that.
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You did not mention auto accidents (40k+ per year), or plain old accidents (120k+ per year), or overdoses (60-70k+ depending on year), or the metabolic syndrome stuff (800k+ per year) that underlies much of our healthcare risks on the national level (increase in sedentary, increase in calories, increase in simple carbs/fats as a ratio of diet).
We do more to address these problems than we do gun violence and culture, but I'm sure we could do more. For example:
Establish universal healthcare free at point of service, minimize sectoral influence over food and agriculture policy, and - most controversially - accelerate urbanization with social housing, massive public transit infrastructure, and curtailment of private automobile production and ownership/usage. (The latter is so controversial that even the AOC/Sanders Green New Deal incorporates mass private ownership of electric vehicles.)
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Beskar
That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.
That figure may be inflated, a lot of people are asymptomatic - making tracking the virus even harder - and therefore lethality overall may be closer to 1% or less.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcTpc0L3XNQ
Of the 700 people on Diamond Princess who contracted Corvid-19 6 have died, that's a little under 1%.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Montmorency
...Having started on the fringes of liberal upper-middle class lifestyle woo, anti-vax has come dangerously close to being Republican mainstream, right up to the White House...
Two years past I would have said you were being entirely silly. However, with any number of folk like George Will, Max Boot, and myself having (at least functionally) left the GOP as it has become more and more the party of Trump, it is plausible that the anti-vaxers are in the ascendancy there. Of course, many of those folks are the same ones who believe that the federal government is ALREADY a tyranny... :shame:
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
The spreading of this thing is aggressive, no doubt.
On Wednesday morning, there were no confirmed COVID-19 cases in this country (not for a lack of testing, as far as I understand), today there are no less than 15 confirmed cases, including two cases of probable domestic transmission.
Prediction: confirmed cases in the US will skyrocket over the next two weeks; say, more than 100 confirmed cases by the end of next week (versus 15 today, not counting the Corona Princess)?
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
My roommate's dad who works with infectious diseases is insisting that we start stockpiling food in case we get hit real bad. Any suggestions on whats the best food to stockpile? Though I think instead of stockpiling food I should just head to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this to blow over.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Hooahguy
My roommate's dad who works with infectious diseases is insisting that we start stockpiling food in case we get hit real bad. Any suggestions on whats the best food to stockpile? Though I think instead of stockpiling food I should just head to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this to blow over.
Calories
Carbohydrates
Protein
Fibre
Fats
Multi-vits & minerals
Have the first 5, have stuff you want to eat in enough variety to make it worthwhile, and have multi-vits guarantee what you may lack from the previous. Fresh stuff mixes things up, but in a pinch, you can keep going on the above in storable form. You just need fresh water and heat in addition.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Rice, Pasta, tinned food, basic long lasting stuff. And toilet paper, lots of toilet paper.
The impression I get is there's unlikely to be much in the way of outright mass starvation or societal collapse in the west but things might start getting short. I dont think heat and water will be an issue but at the very least the panic buying will see shelves stripped bare for a period of time.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Greyblades
Rice, Pasta, tinned food, basic long lasting stuff. And toilet paper, lots of toilet paper.
The impression I get is there's unlikely to be much in the way of outright mass starvation or societal collapse in the west but things might start getting short. I dont think heat and water will be an issue but at the very least the panic buying will see shelves stripped bare for a period of time.
Right, rice, dried pasta, tinned tomato soup, tinned veg, tinned meat like Spam or Bully beef. Potatoes last a long time if kept in the cold and, as Greyblades says toilet paper. Also, bar soap - it lasts a lot longer than gel soups and you can use it for everything in a pinch (it's also more environmentally friendly and better for your skin).
Realistically, we aren't going to actually run out of anything critical but prices might shoot up as supply is disrupted.
In better news - looks like current best guess for mortality is, indeed, 1%: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51...eporting-story
That's still pretty bad but it's way below apocalyptic fears and may well be revised downwards. We're looking at something more infectious but less deadly than SARS and MERS, 10% and 35% respectively.
Another source: https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...s-mers-1489466
It's not impossible that the real killer here will be impact on the supply chain that see people not getting medicines or other supplies, especially in Third World countries.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
In better news - looks like current best guess for mortality is, indeed, 1%:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51...eporting-story
That's still pretty bad but it's way below apocalyptic fears and may well be revised downwards. We're looking at something more infectious but less deadly than SARS and MERS, 10% and 35% respectively.
Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rory_20_uk
First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.
Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?
Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.
Conservatives in the US generally inversely assert individual responsibility to the degree that the issue impacts their own life. I'm not trying to be flippant to you Rory, just pointing out the real American psychology which might not be apparent in British media coverage.
'I thought gay marriage is bad until I knew someone who is gay.' Because if they are telling me they didn't choose to be gay, then my world view on their inherent sinfulness or 'activism' melts away and I am left with empathy.
This is also how so the prevailing views on the subject flipped so fast in less than 10 years because the LGBT community simply made themselves known on a more individual level.
'I thought the ACA was terrible until I had a pre-existing condition and was denied/child that was under 26 struggle to find a job/got medicare when my state expanded it'.
'I thought paid child leave was for welfare queens until I had my first child.'
http://www.cc.com/video-clips/08acdo...te-intolerance
Pandemics and other natural disasters are on their face equal opportunity killers, there is no special reasoning or conjecture as to why some people die and others don't other than blind luck.
This means that everyone feels the threat to its intensity and conservatives must either downplay the danger or they too will become enraged that not enough is being done. But keep in mind, this anger over government ineptitude is not some general awareness of public safety measures, they simply want government to protect the right people.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/hea...240476806.html
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After returning to Miami last month from a work trip in China, Osmel Martinez Azcue found himself in a frightening position: he was developing flu-like symptoms, just as coronavirus was ravaging the country he had visited.
Under normal circumstances, Azcue said he would have gone to CVS for over-the-counter medicine and fought the flu on his own, but this time was different. As health officials stressed preparedness and vigilance for the respiratory illness, Azcue felt it was his responsibility to his family and his community to get tested for novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19.
He went to Jackson Memorial Hospital, where he said he was placed in a closed-off room. Nurses in protective white suits sprayed some kind of disinfectant smoke under the door before entering, Azcue said. Then hospital staff members told him he’d need a CT scan to screen for coronavirus, but Azcue said he asked for a flu test first.
“This will be out of my pocket,” Azcue, who has a very limited insurance plan, recalled saying. “Let’s start with the blood test, and if I test positive, just discharge me.”
Fortunately, that’s exactly what happened. He had the flu, not the deadly virus that has infected tens of thousands of people, mostly in China, and killed at least 2,239 as of Friday’s update by the World Health Organization.
But two weeks later, Azcue got unwelcome news in the form of a notice from his insurance company about a claim for $3,270.
In 2018, President Donald Trump’s administration rolled back Affordable Care Act regulations and allowed so-called “junk plans” in the market. Consumers mistakenly assume that the plans with lower monthly costs will be better than no insurance at all in case of a medical catastrophe, but often the plans aren’t very different from going without insurance altogether.
Hospital officials at Jackson told the Miami Herald that, based on his insurance, Azcue would only be responsible for $1,400 of that bill, but Azcue said he heard from his insurer that he would also have to provide additional documentation: three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got didn’t relate to a preexisting condition.
:sleepy:
These people are very stupid.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233423437286211585
Although to be fair, state media in other authoritarian regimes aren't much better.
https://twitter.com/rafsanchez/statu...76847255224320
Holy crud, watch those two clips. Now for a humor break:
Trump understands, old men are the future.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Shaka_Khan
Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.
Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.
I'm very dubious on this recurrence and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.
You're ignoring the numbers in Wuhan. The hospitals were overwhelmed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
I'm very dubious on this recurrence
We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof. And you shouldn't choose which the official reports are true or false just to illustrate to your liking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.
That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/imm...against-ebola#
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ReluctantSamurai
And Malaria, TV, cholera... and so on and so on. They kill poor people abroad. The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable.
Just like we don't really care about poor people in general. Respiratory infections that can affect the rich,, affect the old more than others are little treatment works beyond supportive measures is scary.
~:smoking:
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable
I get that. What I was referring to more was if COVID-19 had started in a third world country with little impact on global economy, instead of China with it's huge global footprint, would the media coverage be the same? I also think that because COVID-19 is new variation of SARS, and because of that, it will take some time for immune systems to learn how to fight it (and no vaccines to combat it, either), we tend to focus on it just for the newness of it:shrug:
Quote:
Just like we don't really care about poor people in general
The millions of people carrying smart phones (and the businesses that make them) will certainly take notice if the current Ebola out-break in the DRC reaches the tantalum mines:sweatdrop:
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Shaka_Khan
We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof.
That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.
Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.
Ervebo sounds good too.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Mother sent me this this evening - I opined that I didn't think gargling was worth much.
Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Greyblades
That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.
He was referring to virus spores out in the open, not interacting within the system of a host.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Greyblades
That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.
The chain mail likely simplified at point of origin, or degraded over time.
According to this work:
Quote:
Most data were described with the endemic human coronavirus strain (HCoV-) 229E. On different types of materials it can remain infectious for from 2 hours up to 9 days. A higher temperature such as 30°C or 40°C reduced the duration of persistence of highly pathogenic MERS-CoV, TGEV and MHV. However, at 4°C persistence of TGEV and MHV can be increased to ≥ 28 days. Few comparative data obtained with SARS-CoV indicate that persistence was longer with higher inocula (Table I). In addition it was shown at room temperature that HCoV-229E persists better at 50% compared to 30% relative humidity [8].
Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Apparently 'blades' skepticism and Monty's seconding thereof are on point. 26/27 debrees Celsius would likely reduce COVID-19, but NOT eliminate. Apparently temperatures need to be 'north' of 30 to have a profound impact. Article.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:
Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Montmorency
I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.
The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well; 2254 registered deaths per 18 February.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Surprised no one has posted about the Wuhan-400 conspiracy theory yet.
https://fullfact.org/online/book-did...t-coronavirus/
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well
Maybe so but, considering the location of the outbreak, it has a chance to be very disruptive to certain areas of the global economy if it spreads to DRC's mine districts. Considering that the DRC produces 30% of the world's tantalum, and neighboring Rwanda 31%, widespread mine closures for any extended length of time, would hit the electronics industry pretty hard. Yet......
......you hardly hear about this because, IMHO, the DRC and Rwanda are relatively poor third world countries. :creep:
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.
Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Shaka_Khan
Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.
I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.
100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.
Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.
So...
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.
So...
If you are under 40 the chance of dying is much slimmer.
The 5 deaths in Washington state are from elderly and compromised individuals.
What we should be discussing is how we respond to the growing number of epidemics which will without a doubt continue to arise.
The global population is aging and will be more susceptible to these outbreaks over time. Last time I checked only 3% of American workers work remote/from home.
How do we restructure our work and government institutions to prevent an even more dangerous virus from spreading without having to resort to large scale quarantine and a halt on production.
I'll admit I bought into the fear a little bit and just stocked up on about a month of canned goods. But I am not afraid of dying from the virus, more afraid of that loss of production.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Montmorency
Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.
Ethanol needs high concentration to be effective.
Chlorine based cleaners also should do well.
Effectiveness for any type of disinfectant depends on concentration, time, and temperature. Just because you wiped a surface once with a damp paper towel of hydrogen peroxide doesn't mean it is suddenly free of all viruses/spores/bacteria.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
The American Physical Society just cancelled its annual physics conference a day before it was scheduled to commence. Tens of thousands of attendees left hanging. One more price we pay.
Devastating thread. I REALLY hope we get a lucky break.
https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/s...80123244580864
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
Apparently 'blades' skepticism and Monty's seconding thereof are on point. 26/27 debrees Celsius would likely reduce COVID-19, but NOT eliminate. Apparently temperatures need to be 'north' of 30 to have a profound impact.
Article.
I feel smug because I read the same article but clicked through to the source material in my post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Viking
Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.
Smart.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
Ethanol needs high concentration to be effective.
Chlorine based cleaners also should do well.
Effectiveness for any type of disinfectant depends on concentration, time, and temperature. Just because you wiped a surface once with a damp paper towel of hydrogen peroxide doesn't mean it is suddenly free of all viruses/spores/bacteria.
The study Seamus and I link referred to a benchmark of 1 minute (or 30 second, or 10 minute) contact/exposure, but as with temperature there's a geometric curve in the resilience of the virus. Even 1 minute is long. What's good for peons?
Concentrations tested reflect what is commercially available. For example, (dilute) 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or isopropyl 50%-100%.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Montmorency
The study Seamus and I link referred to a benchmark of 1 minute (or 30 second, or 10 minute) contact/exposure, but as with temperature there's a geometric curve in the resilience of the virus. Even 1 minute is long. What's good for peons?
Concentrations tested reflect what is commercially available. For example, (dilute) 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or isopropyl 50%-100%.
I'm just making a general statement building off of yours based on my experience with people who don't know the difference between disinfectants and the science behind them.
Different types of disinfectants are good for different applications. Some are good for fungi and spores while not being so great against bacteria and viruses and vice versa. You can actually see that in the studies showed.
The point about ethanol is for people who somehow think their 40% Smirnoff is going to do the trick.
Concentrations are going to be what you can get at the store, temp is going to be your house environment, what is in our control most is duration.
Isopropyl alcohol evaporates very quickly even in somewhat chilly temps, keep the surface wet for the full min.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366
BBC has a useful chart (near the bottom) of how bad this might get, assuming health services don't overload, basically only 20% will get seriously ill, only 6% will become critical and only 1-2% will die. Those numbers are not great but they're far below the figures for diseases like SARS or Ebola and surviveability goes up substantially for anyone under 80, then under 70 and again under 60. In the West this will likely hit our elderly population hard, especially those living in care-homes with other old people who will also catch and transmit the disease.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that
We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
- not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.
The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
...The point about ethanol is for people who somehow think their 40% Smirnoff is going to do the trick...
I think part of the problem with this substance is that they are relying on ingestion...
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Shaka_Khan
We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.
The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.
So you think I do remember SARS, then?
It's like the flu, the infection rate is high because it's not that dangerous.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
If you are under 40 the chance of dying is much slimmer.
The 5 deaths in Washington state are from elderly and compromised individuals.
What we should be discussing is how we respond to the growing number of epidemics which will without a doubt continue to arise.
The global population is aging and will be more susceptible to these outbreaks over time. Last time I checked only 3% of American workers work remote/from home.
How do we restructure our work and government institutions to prevent an even more dangerous virus from spreading without having to resort to large scale quarantine and a halt on production.
I'll admit I bought into the fear a little bit and just stocked up on about a month of canned goods. But I am not afraid of dying from the virus, more afraid of that loss of production.
Basically, we expand healthcare capacity to cope - we've been cutting back on it for too long - like everything else.
We also stop buying into the "global economy" with such enthusiasm.
There are far more catastrophic diseases like Ash Dieback currently raging through Europe.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Status report from South Korea:
Quote:
Hospitals in South Korea’s hardest hit areas were scrambling to accommodate the surge in new patients.
In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting to be admitted to hospitals and temporary medical facilities, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said. A 100-bed military hospital that had been handling many of the most serious cases was due to have 200 additional beds available by Thursday, he added.
Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge
Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.
One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.
On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Got to admit, my upcoming holiday might end up cancelled/railroaded because the main attractions are barring people from 'affected countries' which kind of spoils the whole point of going to those places.
But there is a discussion about there being two strains of the virus. One is the aggressive form and the other is the milder. It seems the aggressive one is the one dying out.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Viking
Status report from South Korea:
Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge
Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.
One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.
On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of
this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.
Given the USA generally has expensive hospitals and no safety net for ill people, I think you'll get a massive problem with isolating people since many can't afford the time off.
~:smoking:
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
The Telegraph is reporting that there are now two distinct strains of the virus, S and L - L is newer, more infectious and more agreesive (no word yet on if it's more deadly) where S is milder. You can catch both, which explains this "reinfection" - these people are actually catching two diseases.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Watch this clip of Trump briefed on the coronavirus, then watch the first two minutes of this video.
And all these people have always blown and always will.
Quote:
Historian Kevin Kruse points out that after Jonas Salk developed the polio vaccine, Democrats proposed distributing it for free to every child under 19. Over email, Kruse writes that Oveta Culp Hobby, a Texas millionaire and Dwight D. Eisenhower’s secretary of health, education, and welfare, fought back, calling free distribution “socialized medicine by the back door.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Viking
Status report from South Korea:
Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge
Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.
One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.
I'm interested to hear how North Korea is handling things. Will the population be evacuated en masse to a network of tunnels and bunkers? [Props to whoever gets the reference]
Quote:
On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of
this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.
The contemporary parlance is "big yikes."
In my city, the government has contingency plans for prison labor to dig mass graves for up to 51,000 corpses. I'm sure PVC appreciates these moments when nothing is new under the sun. :creep:
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.
But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.
~:smoking:
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
There seems to be a mutation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYPZHA-UjUY
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Don't be a jerk.
You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Shaka_Khan
There seems to be a mutation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYPZHA-UjUY
When you go aggressive, I suggest you do it in person. Doing it behind a computer screen doesn't make you look good. You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.
I'm not being aggressive, I'm telling you not to tell me what I do or don't remember.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked
And you can take THAT to the bank~:smoking:
"Old men running the world....Old men are the future.":sweatdrop:
BTW...it took 20 months to develop a SARS vaccine, and 6 months for a Zika vaccine:
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/he...s-vaccine.html
Quote:
“You have to be brave and you have to be a solid company to do this, because there is no real incentive to do this, no financial incentive,”
Not sure what this statement means:shrug:
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Basically, we expand healthcare capacity to cope - we've been cutting back on it for too long - like everything else.
We also stop buying into the "global economy" with such enthusiasm.
There are far more catastrophic diseases like Ash Dieback currently raging through Europe.
The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.
The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rory_20_uk
The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.
But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.
I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.
The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.
Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.
Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
First UK fatality - woman in her 70's, underlying health condition.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602
-
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: "I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations ... personally, I'd say the number is way under 1%."
Astoundingly irresponsible.
In this clip, Trump:
1. Denies WHO's coronavirus death rate based on “hunch"
2. Calls coronavirus "corona flu"
3. Suggests it's fine for people w/ Covid-19 to go to work
4. Compares coronavirus to "the regular flu," indicating he doesn't get the difference
"We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better" -- Trump to Sean Hannity, last night
What is most shocking is that an incompetent response to a disease outbreak is obviously contradictory to Trump's basic political interests, but he and his minions reject a world beyond their immediate awareness; all they know is sneering and vindictive will to power and intimidation. They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.
Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.
Not clear how worthwhile travel restrictions are in limiting spread. But we do know - obviously - they are economically devastating and can dovetail with business and consumer retrenchment to produce counterproductive shocks.
It's also telling that the Trump admin has used the pandemic as cover to expand travel bans to more Muslim or African countries.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?
Charles, bless him, has no real power and is not in charge of a major country's response to a health pandemic. So yes I'd probably lean in to the pageantry and enjoy the silliness of it all.
It is not about being formal or informal, polite or rude. It is about ensuring that the audience grasps the most important points. Dopey Donnie is not very bright. He is also old and probably has small vessel disease. He when at his peak tends to only hear what he wants.
So all this together means the answers should be very simple and focus on the "over a year" rather than "two months until phase I".
No, you can't up the timeline by shouting at it.
No, throwing resources at it probably won't speed things up greatly either - safety data takes time to collect.
Yes, probably best Industry works with the CDC directly on the details whilst you play Big Boy The Apprentice and try to look like a Leader.
Yes, you can hang Mike Pence out to be the fall guy if you want. Just don't let him get in the way.
Don't get me wrong - if I was in Donnie's position the only difference is I'd have cheerfully asked them to coordinate with the CDC in the first place since I know I don't know enough (OK, anything) to have a meaningful input.
~:smoking:
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission
:stupido:
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Gentlemen, a fair warning to some of you - do not go down the inflammatory route and words with a personal target. I've edited out your posts. Keep it civil please.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Economy and travel wise, the global epidemic has hindered significantly a number of industries but the irony of it is that it benefits those who would want to "work from home" or not at all in the office. Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Viking
Prediction: confirmed cases in the US will skyrocket over the next two weeks; say, more than 100 confirmed cases by the end of next week (versus 15 today, not counting the Corona Princess)?
It's Friday and we are already 64% above that number:
https://i.imgur.com/QqU1EfR.jpg
By next Sunday evening, we could be at 1500 confirmed cases in the US, testing permitting. The markets are not going to like it; I am betting on a 15-20% fall for major stock market indices from current lows over the next few months. There are also still solid chances for more bad news emerging from China as the country tries to return to normal levels of production.
I think that 2020 is going to be quite pivotal for the 2020s due to the virus. Containment seems out of the question, and vaccines and antiviral drugs could take a long time to develop and distribute, so this is going to be costly, and that cost could be enough to topple governments and sway elections.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
When I said "What is most shocking is that an incompetent response to a disease outbreak is obviously contradictory to Trump's basic political interests" I meant "contrary."
Don't do a racisms.
Quote:
“I am very sorry to have to cancel your assistance at the fair next week,” Azran wrote to Nguyen. “The coronavirus is causing much anxiety everywhere, and fairly or not, Asians are being seen as carriers of the virus.
“Your presence on the stand would unfortunately create hesitation on the part of the audience to enter the exhibition space. I apologise for this and hope we can meet and perhaps work together in future.”
I know people who are typically quite racist about nonwhites, who are now apparently also deeply aversive toward Italians (?). Not sure if that's a good or a bad sign for life on earth.
Back to Trump.
Quote:
Trump, signing the $8.3B coronavirus bill w/Azar standing over him, was asked why he canceled his trip to CDC.
Azar quickly interjected that Trump had sent him to CDC instead.
Trump then clarified that the trip was scuttled b/c CDC was concerned an official there had the virus.
https://www.cbs58.com/news/trump-to-...sion-to-cancel
Quote:
White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham confirmed the visit Friday morning. Earlier, a White House official said that the visit was scrapped because Trump did not want to be a distraction at the agency.
"The President is no longer traveling to Atlanta today," a White House official said. "The CDC has been proactive and prepared since the very beginning and the President does not want to interfere with the CDC's mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency."
But Trump contradicted that message later Friday morning, telling the press he might still go.
"We may go. They thought there was a problem at CDC, somebody that had the virus," Trump said in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, during a signing of bill to spend more than $8 billion to fight the virus. Trump added that the person in question at the CDC has tested negative for the virus.
"They've tested the person very fully and it was a negative test," Trump said. "I may be going. They're going to see if they can turn it around with Secret Service."
You can never pile on enough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
edyzmedieval
Economy and travel wise, the global epidemic has hindered significantly a number of industries but the irony of it is that it benefits those who would want to "work from home" or not at all in the office. Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.
It could accelerate the administrative shift of universities to online distance-learning platforms.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Viking
It's Friday and we are already
64% above that number:
By next Sunday evening, we could be at 1500 confirmed cases in the US, testing permitting. The markets are not going to like it; I am betting on a 15-20% fall for major stock market indices from current lows over the next few months. There are also still solid chances for more bad news emerging from China as the country tries to return to normal levels of production.
I think that 2020 is going to be quite pivotal for the 2020s due to the virus. Containment seems out of the question, and vaccines and antiviral drugs could take a long time to develop and distribute, so this is going to be costly, and that cost could be enough to topple governments and sway elections.
The US government has, last I heard, declined to test people en masse!!! We don't have the foggiest idea of how many are affected and where!
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.
Just the tip of the iceberg, IMHO. There are many scenarios being played out in business and financial circles, and the biggest variable is the length and severity of COVID-19's pandemic.
A few scenarios to date:
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/15/op...ronavirus.html
Quote:
This episode will also add momentum to some changes in global supply chains that were already underway. Along with Chinese workers’ rising wages and the prospects of further U.S.-China trade tensions, the epidemic is likely to cause multinational companies to reassess their supply chains and reduce their production footprints in China.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1058601
Quote:
Responding to questions about whether countries might react to a potential supply-chain squeeze by looking to domestic manufacturers instead, the UNCTAD economists explained that such a measure would unlikely be effective in the short-term.
“China has built a huge logistics - transport logistics - which is like harbours, shipping lanes, airplanes, that actually are able to move all of those goods in and out of China”, Mr. Nicita explained. “Now yes, some industries may be able to find some sort of alternative supplier like in Mexico or East Europe, but that will require even more time, because not only production needs to be moved, but also the infrastructure related to logistics would need to be built.”
Ms. Coke-Hamilton added: “It was the same argument that was used when the US President thought that … imposing certain measures on certain countries would shift production back to the United States. It’s never that easy, because when companies move and they relocate and they set up their industries and their logistics frameworks, it’s very hard to shift in the short term.”
http://www.hbr.org/2020/03/what-coro...global-economy
Quote:
Could Covid-19 create its own structural legacy? History suggests that the global economy after a major crisis like Covid-19 will likely be different in a number of significant ways.
• Microeconomic legacy: Crises, including epidemics, can spur the adoption of new technologies and business models. The SARS outbreak of 2003 is often credited with the adoption of online shopping among Chinese consumers, accelerating Alibaba’s rise. As schools have closed in Japan and could plausibly close in the U.S. and other markets, could e-learning and e-delivery of education see a breakthrough? Further, have digital efforts in Wuhan to contain the crisis via smart-phone trackers effectively demonstrated a powerful new public health tool?
• Macroeconomic legacy: Already it looks like the virus will hasten the progress to more decentralized global value chains — essentially the virus adds a biological dimension to the political and institutional forces that have pushed the pre-2016 value chain model into a more fragmented direction.
• Political legacy: Political ramifications are not to be ruled out, globally, as the virus puts to the test various political systems’ ability to effectively protect their populations. Brittle institutions could be exposed, and political shifts triggered. Depending on its duration and severity, Covid-19 could even shape the U.S. presidential election. At the multilateral level, the crisis could be read as a call to more cooperation or conversely push the bipolar centers of geopolitical power further apart.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Supply shock supply shock they say, but... the airline and hospitality industries may see a lot of damage from lost revenue. And, overall, all the people out on paychecks or small businesses out on customers, both still paying rent...
Oh hey, bankruptcies.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/05/busin...vel/index.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/virus-c...pt-11583408695
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Montmorency
The US government has,
last I heard, declined to test people en masse!!! We don't have the foggiest idea of how many are affected and where!
I get the impression that testing is being ramped up in the US, so that a surge in confirmed cases can be expected now as that number catches up with the spreading that has been going on for a while (and then the surge will continue since the number of cases is currently growing exponentially).
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Viking
I get the impression that testing is being ramped up in the US, so that a surge in confirmed cases can be expected now as that number catches up with the spreading that has been going on for a while (and then the surge will continue since the number of cases is currently growing exponentially).
NY State of Emergency.
I may be off by a bit but cases increased just today from about a dozen confirmed, to nearly a hundred. Time to go shopping I guess. :juggle2:
Edit: I was conflating geographic levels. There were up to 50 in all of NY state confirmed before today.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Draconian measures being introduced in Northern Italy:
Quote:
Italy's prime minister has said at least 16 million people are now under lock-down in Lombardy region and also in 14 provinces until early April.
[...]
People are unable to enter or leave the whole northern region of Lombardy, home to 10 million people, except for emergency access. Milan is the main city in the region.
[...]
Weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events.
Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed.
Restaurants and cafes can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least a metre apart.
People have been told to stay home as much as possible, and those who break the quarantine could face three months in jail.
Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people
Why? I suppose this is a hint:
Quote:
The head of the Lombardy's intensive care crisis unit says the health system is on the brink of collapse, intensive care being set up in hallways. By March 26 they predict ~18,000 #Covid19 cases in Lombardy, of which ~3,000 will need intensive care.
https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/st...30756412567559
This article from 3 March provides a similar picture:
Quote:
In the Lombardy region of Italy, the epicenter for the novel coronavirus outbreak in the country, officials are looking to pull doctors out of retirement and are fast-tracking nursing students who are close to graduating to help treat patients, the Associated Press reported Monday.
[...]
According to the AP, hospitals in the cities Lodi and Cremona had so many patients coming in last week that they had to close their emergency rooms and send some patients to other facilities. A little under 10% of people with the COVID-19 virus in the region have needed to be admitted to the ICU, the head of the national Civil Protection agency, Angelo Borrelli, told the AP.
"Effectively some of the hospitals in Lombardy are under a stress that is much heavier than what this area can support," Dr. Massimo Galli, the head of infectious disease at Milan's Sacco Hospital, told Sky TG24.
The healthcare system in Italy's Lombardy region is so strained from the new coronavirus that officials are asking doctors to come out of retirement and nursing students are being fast-tracked to graduation
I feel pretty confident now when saying that a similar scenario is going to happen in the US, particularly in Washington state. Probably in other places in Western countries as well. Poorer countries will be hit even worse; I imagine a lot of people there will die not just from the virus, but from other causes due to an overloaded healthcare system, something that can also happen in wealthier countries.
I am finally starting to become convinced that this is not a drill; this could happen where I live, too (isn't that the benchmark all humans have?).
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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I am finally starting to become convinced that this is not a drill; this could happen where I live, too
I am absolutely astounded how nonchalant people are where I live. Yes, there's been the requisite panic-buying of masks, toilet paper, etc., but just yesterday on a local sports-talk radio I listen to, a DJ was bloviating about how he's not going to change his travel plans, and that much of the media coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak is "over-reaction". And there were a lot of phone calls from listeners echoing the same sentiments!
Say what?:crazy: I guess these people haven't taken what they've been watching/reading in the news seriously, YET.......
Panic? No. Take simple some precautions like frequent hand washing, limit face touching as much as possible, and circulate in public only when you must. Only the gods can stand in judgement of that DJ if, through his cavalier attitude, he passes the virus to someone who dies.
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Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
With the virus being transmissable for a good time before and after the symptoms, the chance of containment being long lost and a second strain emerging, feels like catching it is inevitable at this point for most of the world.
All thats left is to wait for it to hit you tough it out, hope you dont become the unlucky 1-2%. Thank god I am still young in a first world country.
And every bastard that helped this virus along (or created it depending on which theory is correct) will probably comfortably ride it out in a CCP provided gated community.
