Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Shaka_Khan]

In better news - looks like current best guess for mortality is, indeed, 1%: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51...eporting-story

That's still pretty bad but it's way below apocalyptic fears and may well be revised downwards. We're looking at something more infectious but less deadly than SARS and MERS, 10% and 35% respectively.

Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.

Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.

I'm very dubious on this recurrence and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.

[Shaka_Khan]

Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.

You're ignoring the numbers in Wuhan. The hospitals were overwhelmed.

I'm very dubious on this recurrence

We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof. And you shouldn't choose which the official reports are true or false just to illustrate to your liking.

and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.

That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.

[ReluctantSamurai]

All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/imm...against-ebola#

[rory_20_uk]

All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/imm...against-ebola#

And Malaria, TV, cholera... and so on and so on. They kill poor people abroad. The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable.

Just like we don't really care about poor people in general. Respiratory infections that can affect the rich,, affect the old more than others are little treatment works beyond supportive measures is scary.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable

I get that. What I was referring to more was if COVID-19 had started in a third world country with little impact on global economy, instead of China with it's huge global footprint, would the media coverage be the same? I also think that because COVID-19 is new variation of SARS, and because of that, it will take some time for immune systems to learn how to fight it (and no vaccines to combat it, either), we tend to focus on it just for the newness of it

Just like we don't really care about poor people in general

The millions of people carrying smart phones (and the businesses that make them) will certainly take notice if the current Ebola out-break in the DRC reaches the tantalum mines

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof.


That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.

Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.

[Montmorency]

I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

Ervebo sounds good too.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Mother sent me this this evening - I opined that I didn't think gargling was worth much.

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

[Greyblades]

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

[Viking]

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.

I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well; 2254 registered deaths per 18 February.

[Shaka_Khan]

Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.

Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.

[Shaka_Khan]

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that

We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.

- not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.