Chavez threatens to halt oil sales to US
I say go ahead and try it. :laugh4:
We'll last a lot longer without Venezuelan oil than he will without money.
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Chavez threatens to halt oil sales to US
I say go ahead and try it. :laugh4:
We'll last a lot longer without Venezuelan oil than he will without money.
O rly?Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiahou
I say it's just a question of who caves first - Chavez after his people overthrow him due to the huge economic potential for failure, or America who result in invading Venezuela.
Ultimately, if Chavez sticks to this and never gives in, there's a good chance he'll lose.
EDIT: Then again, thinking about it, there are plenty of other hungry countries (China, India...) that would gladly have what would have been American oil.
Seems like a waste of time. Oil prices are set based on a relationship between worldwide supply and demand. If one country bans exports to a particular country, it won't result in a cost increase for the latter, it will just mean that they buy their oil elsewhere.
No, the oil price is determined by whatever OPEC says it should be.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zim
As for the topic itself, I say GO CHAVEZ! Finally showing some promise again after some ridiculous moves.
OPEC manipulates prices by increasing or decreasing their output of oil. If Chavez wanted to affect prices he could try to do the same, although it wouldn't have much effect if only Venezuela went through with it.
It's an empty gesture, most likely made as a way for him to gain political capital without actually taking an action that would incur any real consequences.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HoreTore
Chavez is a member of OPEC. And he holds more sway over them than non-members do(like the US). And if he decides to shut down, it's rather doubtful that the other OPEC-members will increase their capacity to keep oil prices down, thus increasing oil prices. Chavez actually has a lot of power when it comes to oil. Besides, what serves the US best; keeping a low oil price, or help one corporation avoid paying for their past corruption?Quote:
Originally Posted by Zim
If Exxon wins that case, I say shut it down Chavez. They don't deserve to own your nations wealth.
Saudi Arabia tends to increase production when the U.S. pressures them to, actually.
At this point Chvez doesn't even seem to be threatening to shut down, but just a rather ineffective sanction. He couldn't even lower production without the rest of OPEC, since they all have to do it together or prices wouldn't change much and he'd lose too much of the money he needs for his social and other programs. I don't think they'd follow his lead at this point. I'm sure it's only a matter of time before they cut off production to raise prices again, but it won't be on Chaves's timetable.
If the British and American (and, if Exxon have their way, international) courts decide Venezuela is in the wrong in this case, I don't think political pressure should affect the case, however much it irks President Chavez.
As a side note I also rather question his method of calling every single country that even appears to stand a chance to agree with the U.S. at a single point of time on a single issue a puppet (well, lapdog in the case of Mexico a while back). As if that will inflame British opinion in his favor somehow. :no:
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Originally Posted by HoreTore
Actually nothing could be more valuable to his Presidency than if America denounced him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zim
Valuable to Chaves' presidency? I imagine you're right, but I would hope both the U.S. and British governments would let their courts decide the legal issue without pressuring them either way or making too many public statements.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CountArach
Xia - it won't hurt Chavez and Venezuela at all. Not only have their revenues increased insanely over the last few years, but good ol' China will bend down on one knee to get all the oil which was previously going to the US. It will only effect the US, so you better hope he doesn't.
You got that right. Virtually all of the Venezuelan oil is being refined in Texas. Since most of the world refineries work with sweet light crude, Chavez will have a very tough time selling his heavy sour crude to ANYONE other than us. It's a simple matter of economics, as most countries would instead prefer to pay more for sweet light than retool their refineries to accomodate Chavez. He can run around with his mouth wide open, shout imprecations and threaten Uncle Sam, but guess what, if we stop refining his oil, his gravy train is over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiahou
Then don't allow them to invest billions in your country and then decide "hmm, I think we'll take all the infrastructure you set up and not let you have any of the oil proceeds that you invested billions in"Quote:
Originally Posted by CountArach
Besides, this is Exxon Mobile, a private company, you know... a company not run by the government?
DC would have a hard time interfering in this matter.
Good for Exxon Mobile for sticking it to Chavez.
I'll reinvest my money back in the company just out of principle now.
Rising oil prices usually do that, JAG. Falling oil prices don't do that. I don't know if you last checked, but the world appears to be heading for a global recession. Not really good news for Chavez.Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG
I'll also post research later, but I believe Venezuela produces a tough kind of crude which very few countries can refine. You know, there is a reason why Chavez keeps selling to America and it really isn't out of the goodness of his heart.
Shhhhhh!! You'll wake the baby!Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice
China could get that crude right now, if they were willing to pay more money for it. But they don't, because they get all the oil they want at the current price already.Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG
And if Chavez sells to China, we'll just buy from whoever used to sell to China. A sanction like Chavez proposes is useless in the crude oil market.
And I fully support US and British courts seizing assets of the Venezuela State Oil for Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhilips.
CR
Go Chavez! :pirate2:
I really do enjoy watching this nutbar do his thing. He may be a tyrannical wacko with delusions of godhood, but at least he ain`t boring. And anyone, anywhere, anytime, who is willing to go toe to toe with an oil giant and fight it out in the mud is ok by me. Nice to see the South Americans hit back once in a while.
I`m sure the Indian and Chinese ambassadors are lunching with Hugo as we speak.
What he said. Who else is going to buy it?Quote:
Originally Posted by rvg
I think my dad's car is broken thanks to Chavez oil.
Who is going to transport it in the first place, the panama channel isn't ready for the biggies would hardly be worthwile for China or India or whatever, they can get it elsewhere with these cool things called pipes.Quote:
Originally Posted by drone
But doesn't the deal with China mean that not only are China building refineries for Venezuelan oil in China , they are also building them in Venezuela . Doesn't part of the deal with Brazil mean that Brazil is building refineries for Venezuelan oil , same with India and every other country he has been doing oil deals with over the past few years .:idea2:Quote:
Virtually all of the Venezuelan oil is being refined in Texas. Since most of the world refineries work with sweet light crude, Chavez will have a very tough time selling his heavy sour crude to ANYONE other than us. It's a simple matter of economics, as most countries would instead prefer to pay more for sweet light than retool their refineries to accomodate Chavez. He can run around with his mouth wide open, shout imprecations and threaten Uncle Sam, but guess what, if we stop refining his oil, his gravy train is over.
He may be an idiot , but he isn't completely stupid , he plans ahead .
Ah of course , that would be the deal with China building new Pacific ports and oil terminals in South America with pipelines from Venezuela .Quote:
Who is going to transport it in the first place, the panama channel isn't ready for the biggies would hardly be worthwile for China or India or whatever, they can get it elsewhere with these cool things called pipes.
There is no deal, just a little hugging we all get lonily sometimes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
Exxon Mobile is a thoroughly corrupt company, in that they have no reservations for paying off corrupt state officials to get their way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice
It's about time they got smacked. It's well deserved.
If you are absolutily sure of that Darwin says you are unfit for life. It's not perfect we aren't all from Norway.
Norwegian companies(Statoil), are unfortunately no better, and I'm glad they're getting the smack from Chavez too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony
Why? Norway is a great country. At least it hasn't been kinda evil since conquering Brittain.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoreTore
A global recession which... China is going to be completely immune from - don't believe me, it's the IMF that said it. China's GDP growth is going to be completely unaffected, predicted at 10% growth this year.Quote:
Rising oil prices usually do that, JAG. Falling oil prices don't do that. I don't know if you last checked, but the world appears to be heading for a global recession. Not really good news for Chavez.
It might be brilliant for you to think he won't do it, but he will and he will do it so his country is still strong and continuing down the path of social equality.
Plus, actually some of the selling he has done in the US, has been out of the goodness of his heart - trying to help the poor in the US, doing what the US govt wouldn't even dream of doing.
Any idea when these projects are going to be completed? Until they are, and are capable of processing the quantities the US purchases, he's just heating air with these threats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
His cause is just though. The same can't be said about Exxon Mobile.Quote:
Originally Posted by drone
Couldn't agree more. It's about time companies like Exxon pay for their sins.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoreTore
Exxon is in it for the money. Chavez is in it for the money and the power. Hello, pot, I am kettle.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoreTore
What's this got to do with the US refining Venezuelan heavy crude?Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG
What's this have to do with the fact global oil prices will still fall during a recession?
Except they aren't really getting smacked, now are they? :beam:Quote:
Originally Posted by HoreTore
Seems the opposite is happening.
That depends on the outcome of the courtcase , I cannot really see a court finding in their favour since they chose to pull out of the deal , most of the others accepted the deal .Quote:
Except they aren't really getting smacked, now are they?
Exxons pull out was more to do with the changes to its tax bill , which it would have a very very hard time pushing through the courts .
So in short Exxons attempts are a rather lame effort at applying pressure .
Now several people have been going on about how it is the US that refines Venezuelas oil , what proportion of those US refineries that process Venezuelas oil are actually owned by Venezuela itself ?
Not many if Exxon wins in court. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
Besides, whoever owns them- they're still in the US. Is Hugo going to ship oil to the US to be refined only to load it back onto tankers and ship it all to another country? I think not. :no:
Thats a very very big IFQuote:
Not many if Exxon wins in court.
So if they do by some miracle win and sieze refineries set up for the heavy crude what are they gonna do with them ?
Perhaps Exxon can sell them to get the money(large amounts of money) that they owe the American tax payer .
What you mean like transhipments via refineries sorta like all the oil companies do ?:laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:Quote:
Is Hugo going to ship oil to the US to be refined only to load it back onto tankers and ship it all to another country? I think not.
Hmmmmm...transhipments , there is something in that word that is sorta suggestive of them floating thingies.....errrr...ships perhaps .:idea2:
Now Venezuela wouldn't have been doing something like a massive increase in its floaty things for carrying oil products would it ?
Tankers I think they is called .:yes:
As I said...So new ports , new terminals , new pipelines , new refineries , new contracts and errr..... new oil tankers .Quote:
He may be an idiot , but he isn't completely stupid , he plans ahead .
Do you sorta get the slight impression that he saw this coming ?
Here's some more info .
Quote:
"For the market this means that the probability of Exxon winning an arbitration against PdVSA is high," said Alberto Ramos, an analyst with Goldman Sachs in New York.
Yup, sounds like they're in great shape. ~:handball:Quote:
PdVSA claims to produce 3.2 million barrels of crude a day, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other industry associations put its production closer to 2.4 million barrels a day.
PdVSA officials claim the company is on track to raise production, but its latest moves appear to reflect concern about its production capacity.
In recent days PdVSA has struck new agreements with Total, Statoil and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA) in a bid to expand production in mature fields across the country. Still, PdVSA has problems with aging oil infrastructure, and continues to struggle to secure needed oil rigs.
And you've got to love Chavez's response:
Yes, that's right- he's taking the spoiled brat approach- threatening to take his ball and go home. :laugh4:Quote:
"Exxon Mobil is an imperialist bandit," Chavez said Sunday during his radio and television show. "If (Exxon) really freezes us...if you hurt us...We won't send any oil to the United States."
Too bad for him that he can't make good on the threat:
Tribes may believe that Chavez is going to ship his crude to the US for it to be refined, load it back onto tankers, ship it back to South America, pump it across pipelines, load it back onto tankers, and ship it to Asia- but most people (including those who actually know the industry) realize that's completely unworkable.Quote:
Few believe the president will cut off the Andean country's main business partner, especially since most of the refineries outside Venezuela capable of processing its extra-heavy crude are located on U.S. soil.
Even if China and India need to build new plants to process Venezuela`s oil, Hugo can offset their costs by selling them oil at less than market price, still pull in a tidy profit, and maybe trade some (lots of) oil for weapons.
If Hugo has a steady stream of Chinese flag supertankers in port under a fifty-year contract, and a whack of new fighters and SAMs parked at Chavez International, he`s going to be the new Castro and his administration could well last past several US presidents. Latin and South America might see this guy as Che incarnate, fostering strong and defiant anti-US sentiment across the south, and the US might not want to bomb or invade a country full of Chinese engineers (and military advisors) at the same time as they owe China their first born in past due interest payments. Also, China could say ''You mess with Venezuela and threaten our oil imports and Taipei is going to be a smoking ruin by lunch.''
Even if the physical and monetary outcome of a deal like this was less than intended, even if it tanked completely, it would have a devastating psychological impact on US power in the region.
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Originally Posted by Beirut
Right, because the U.S. is just a clipped-wing country full of dancing nancies... oh wait - that's Canada. South of the border, we'll find a way to deal with any threats without totally caving.
Of course we`re good dancers, it`s how we get the chicks. :dancing:Quote:
Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff
So if Hugo dances with China, and they hug oh so tightly, just how would a South of the Border gentleman cut in?
Hugo scaped from the mental hospital. That explains everything.
IMO, Chavez won't last very long. His support with the people is already waning and could be seen in his failed constitutional amendment which would've allowed him to extend his term as president.
Actually all of the polling data on approval ratings that I have seen from various polling companies show him still way higher than most western leaders. I didn't read one that was below 60%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xdeathfire
Chavez is what he is. He's a populist and a demagogue.
However he is overturning over one hundred years of US colonialism in south america - and the US doesn't like it when one of the pets down south starts actually asking for a fair slice of the pie - or heaven forfend - plays a bit of business hard ball.
The US had this in the post for a long time.
One other factor to consider is that Exxon is not just some guy in a suit with a Snidely Whiplash twirly moustache, it's a corporation that gets its funding from Barclays, Vangard, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and the like. Who are those guys?
Managers of (among other things) US pension plans - that supposed 15% we save from our paychecks for retirement - because Soc. Security is gonna be gone by 2018.
So, in essense, Exxon-R-us.
The Simon Legree's running those companies are gonna do fine. If anybody has to lose money, it'll be the pension plans.
I wonder if Chavez considers this at all; or if it's just "If it's American it's teh evil."
Would you then actually consider to pay more for Exxon oil? To ensure that the company's wellbeing isn't in danger, making it certain that the pension plans will go well.Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
That sounds a bit like an artificial prop-up tactic, but...Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironside
it seems we US gas-consumers pay about 50% less at the pump than most of the western world. I wouldn't mind paying up to about $6 per gallon (twice what I paid yesterday), IF I knew that the extra money was going into research and development of new energy sources, and not just lining the pockets of CEO's and money managers (or worse yet: politicians).
That's wishful thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
Anyway, I'd rather she alternative energy through government sponsored tax break and SMALL grants, rather than basically a sin tax.
You don't need $6 gas to do that. It will cause little more than short term pain. Oil prices are near or above the threshold where other forms of energy become profitable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice
What Chavez says in these statements, and the real game are two different things.Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
He is trying to keep the maximum money from Venezualan oil in the country. Exxon is trying to take the maximum amount out of the country. On the one side you have a country which previously had a small wealthy US-backed elite - kept in power and comfortable providing they carried on supervising the export of wealth. Now you have someone who is turning that around. The US don't like it, the old elite hate it, and the poor of the country are getting a bigger slice of the pie.
Oh yeah - and a massive rich US company is going to take a whipper :shrug:
Interesting , you bold this part ...Quote:
Yup, sounds like they're in great shape.
Now tell me which of those compamies listed does not also have that problem ? how many worldwide do not have that problem ?Quote:
Still, PdVSA has problems with aging oil infrastructure, and continues to struggle to secure needed oil rigs.
Hey Xiahou if you want to focus on a passage and put the emphasis on one part of that passage then it might be a good idea if you actually thought first , since highlighting one companies problems to show how bad it is doesn't work when all the other companies have the same problem .:idea2:
Well I must say , despite some pretty strenous earlier efforts on your part , that this certainly surpasses them all as the biggest pile of nonsense you have ever written on this forum .Quote:
Tribes may believe that Chavez is going to ship his crude to the US for it to be refined, load it back onto tankers, ship it back to South America, pump it across pipelines, load it back onto tankers, and ship it to Asia- but most people (including those who actually know the industry) realize that's completely unworkable.
Congratulations .
If anything, the asset freeze that's been granted indicates there may be merit in Exxon's case. I'd expect them to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Idaho
How on Earth that can happen?Quote:
Originally Posted by CountArach
:laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:Quote:
If anything, the asset freeze that's been granted indicates there may be merit in Exxon's case.
You mean that it managed to make it past the "barely capable of serious arguement" benchmark neccesary to secure an order .:dizzy2:
Its quite simple really Caius .Quote:
How on Earth that can happen?
It can happen because some of his policies are actually not bad and some are quite good .
Large parts of the population have been screwed badly by former regimes , it is elements of those former regimes that form the main opposition , so when the choice is someone who may turn out bad and someone you know for sure is corrupt and is going to screw you over again at the first chance the probability is that the one who may turn out to be bad will be more popular than the one you already know is bad .
If the opposition wasn't so much of a bunch of idiots then perhaps Chavez wouldn't be able to get so much support in Venezuela .
Heheheh. There are many things in this world that I agree with, many things I understand, and even a fair few I can empathise with at a distance. But cheerleading for powerful multinational corporations is not one of them :laugh4:Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiahou
http://www.borev.net/bushdance.JPG
I'll cheer them all day, when you consider that their competition is mostly made up of state run Oilocracies who answer to no one and oppress their own populations, Exxon isn't that high on my list of companies that just have to go.
Chavez is an idiot.
Wheras Exxon just gives money to brutal dictatorships who oppress their populations , because its good for business ....so they must be OK to cheer really .Quote:
I'll cheer them all day, when you consider that their competition is mostly made up of state run Oilocracies who answer to no one and oppress their own populations
So much for sabre rattling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshal Murat
Quote:
Originally Posted by Idaho
You men multicultural. Racist!
I agree with Prolie.
It's far from clear how much oil they even sold to Exxon. Chavez wasn't exactly on good terms with them to begin with. And he's still shipping oil to the US- cuz he pretty much has to. :yes:Quote:
Originally Posted by CountArach
Yes it is far from clear .....Quote:
It's far from clear how much oil they even sold to Exxon.
Well you could always sort of look at Exxon refineries that deal with Venezuelan oil to give you some sort of idea , though of course that wouldn't work since there would be that little problem called joint ownership of the facilities , in which case to get the Exxon total you would have to subtract the partners proportion from the total amount of oil .
The partner in this case being errrrr....Venezuelas national oil company .
Go Chavez = Long live the Che = Long live the commies??? No, thanks. Its just ridiculous(sp?), but coming of you we will enter in a fight ala Cold War.Quote:
As for the topic itself, I say GO CHAVEZ! Finally showing some promise again after some ridiculous moves.
Chavez is a poor guy. Someone who says a lot, and you wanna know what he did? He bought a part of SanCor, an important Argentinian company. IT was supposed to make it function better. And we have the same **** from them.
He is inside Colombia, declarating himself God and going around and liberating Hostages like he was Rambo or someone else... I say he needs some serious help, and less attention of him in a wargaming forum.
You wanna know what he did , he took over a large debt that Argentina couldn't manage with its economy spiraling out of control , he bought out Shell because they was pulling out , he invested in the state owned oil company , he signed contracts with government shipyards for maintainance and repair of Venezuelan ships and signed contracts with private shipyards for new construction of Venezuelan ships , he also did a deal to sell them oil in exchange for beef .Quote:
you wanna know what he did? He bought a part of SanCor, an important Argentinian company. IT was supposed to make it function better. And we have the same **** from them.
If argentina in the state it was in could have got a better offer perhaps it would have taken it , but given the way it was going there was a bit of a shortage of offers .
Now that is priceless , thanks for the laugh Caius :2thumbsup:Quote:
He is inside Colombia, declarating himself God and going around and liberating Hostages like he was Rambo or someone else...
:bow:Quote:
Now that is priceless , thanks for the laugh Caius
Damn those Columbians, voting in Chavez time and again.. :help:
:idea2:
Did I say Columbia? They are all the same.
If you are making fun of Caius, he is from Argentina and most likely knows very well where Venezuela and Columbia are.Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG
If you aren't, than your joke is even less funny. Most people know the difference between the two countries, atleast on this board.
I thought you liked Socialist leaders, JAG. :inquisitive:Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG
And yes, I know the diference.
JAG was being sarcastic. He is well-known Chavez fanboy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Caius
Well Jag , that went well over their heads :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:
Actualy that joke is hilarious , but you didn't get it .Quote:
If you aren't, than your joke is even less funny.
Erm, you do know who he went about organizing a hostage release by the FARC, marxist (or maoist?) Columbian rebels?Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG
I think JAG's the one who didn't get the reference.
Anyways, all the new factories, etc. he builds or whatever doesn't matter due to the nature of the oil market.
:shurg:
CR
Thats why he said he was Rambo.Quote:
Erm, you do know who he went about organizing a hostage release by the FARC, marxist (or maoist?) Columbian rebels?
Actually it didnt, nor was it hilarious.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
Personally I would of expected better sarcastic post from Jag versus relaying on a racist joke to make a point.
Redleg, you know better than to expect anything but a sarcastic post from me.
To be fair though, the best argument which would carry weight with me, in terms of arguing against Chavez, would be his relationship with certain aspects of the Columbian drug lords and the FARC rebels - though that is still tenuous.
Anyway lads. :clown:
Did you say venezuelan president ? they are all the same .Quote:
To be fair though, the best argument which would carry weight with me, in terms of arguing against Uribe, would be his relationship with certain aspects of the Columbian drug lords and the FARC rebels
I dont expect a racist post from you though however, given that you claim to be a liberial.Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG
Unless of course your desire is to continue to demonstrat that most of Europe is far more racist then any in the Americas, just like Tribesy in demonstrating with his post.
I guess both you and tribesy have a problem with brown skin.
:laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:
Redleg has totally lost it .
It looks like Donkey-Oaty is on the rampage agian :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4: them windmills had better watch out .:dizzy2:
:laugh4:Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
Not at all. Just pointing out the inherit racism in the humor that you and Jag are doing. What is amazing is if someone from the United States stated exactly what you two did - both of you would of been saying racism also.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
That you have resulted to personal insults demonstrates that my statement has some truth in it. Why else the personal jab in response to the observation that the joke is indeed a racist one?