Quote Originally Posted by pevergreen
Following a gut feeling of someone else?
To be honest I've been getting the same gut feeling. Maybe that's just the way CA plays, but it just seems to out of line. These are just some random thoughts, yet noting these two posts, #1 and #2. Here CA subtley protects Hannibal. Although a weak link, I'll continue. Post #3 suggests a semi-experienced player and #4 CA points the finger at TP, a player already under a bandwagon. I can take this 2 ways. CA is being sincere OR CA is directing the blame elsewhere.

The easiest way to detect lies through is to place pressure on the party involved, (but easy is relative, its still hard lol). If TP is AFK we can't gauge his reaction, makes it harder when finding other guilty parties.

Then again the only way to see if we're successful is after the night phase. But, then again an experienced player could manipulate it, by not killing during the night. Or we may not be able to find clues due to possible secret roles.

Now if we take a closer look at those who have been knocked of so far they consist of lurkers and experienced players who could have posed a serious threat to the Mafia. These Mafioso know what they are doing. The make-up of those involved is becoming increasingly more defined (and I can practise my Psychology too ). The 3 kills in the first night, and the 4 in the second suggests a Mafia member who either lives outside the US, thus meaning it was easy for them to miss the deadline or they are new and were unaware of the rules at that stage.

My second thought is that in this style of Mafia game, the Mafia know who each other are yes? (Like in GH's original?) So that means that at least 1 of them is/or at least seems to be experienced, thus it is hard to pin point Mafia members through an analysis of their experience and their murder targets (what I will term Noob-Vet Quotient), as the make-up of the Mafia may or may not vary from the experienced to the noobish.

Player by Player Analysis:
*Predictions may change on future analysis.

GeneralHankerchief (14) - Well, hard to judge at the moment. Makes a good point #126. Post #188 he claims 1 thing and goes another way. Stimulating useful discussion. [Prediction=Unclear]

Caius (11) - Hard to analyse, but at the moment I don't sense anything overly Mafia-esque in his posts. [Prediction=Unclear]

pevergreen (11) - Nothing sinister in his posting style. [Prediction=Unclear]

gibsonsg91921 (10) - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

Drisos (10) - Seems to be acting pro-town/hell, the writing style doesn't contain any tell tale Mafia signs. May be manipulating us, I'm interesting in the gut feeling Sigurd has about him. [Prediction=Unclear]

Sasaki Kojiro 9 - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

Proletariat (9) - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

TinCow (8) - Contributing and playing in a similar style to how he was in Capo, analysis suggests innocence. However, his posts contain an air of negativity, often a symptom of guilt. [Prediction=Pending]

Rythmic (8) - I'm sure I'm still suspicious to the rest of you all, but I'm glad to say that even if I'm dead I can still analyse this thread! [Prediction=Innocent]

CountArach (8) - The way he plays just feels incredibly scummy, much like in Capo, little other reasoning. Posts in question #1, #2.[Prediction=Unclear]

Mouzafphaerre (8) - Has been mostly under the radar so far, nothing out of the ordinary. [Prediction=Unclear]

Beefy187 (7) - None of his initial posts caught my immediate attention, I think this was a bad lynch first round. [Prediction=Innocent]

Elite Ferret (7) - A number of his posts caught my attention, simply on posting style. [Prediction=Unclear]

FactionHeir (6) - A mixture of suspicious posts and useful posts. [Prediction=Unclear]

Seamus Fermanagh (6) - Seems pro-town/hell, posts and discussion useful at this stage. [Prediction=Unclear]

Ichigo (6) - Temporarily AFK. His few posts have been pretty standard Ichi. [Prediction=Unclear/Possible Innocent]

Crazed Rabbit (5) - Made some meagre contributions early on, quasi-lurking, but playing not entirely dissimilar to Capo. His experience means that we'll only find out his prerogative after more posts/contributions. [Prediction=Unclear]

Hannibalbarc (5) - Limited posts, all overly brief, they seem to be trying to 'withhold' guilt/knowledge. Uses others logic and contributes nothing new themselves. Voted 'pointlessly', which did create some discussion. Omanes pointed the finger at him, with a half decent point. [Prediction=Unclear]

Fahad I (5) - Suspicious posting style, the use of negative adjectives and lack of pro-nouns suggests he is hiding something. He pleads ignorance, true he hasn't played Mafia before(?), but still, not entirely convincing. [Prediction=Unclear]

Tratorix (5) - Hasn't said anything outrageous or incredibly useful so far. [Prediction=Unclear]

woad&fangs (4) - Has not said anything out of line or worthy of great analysis. Made a few good points so far. [Prediction=Unclear]

Andres (4) Your playing more sincerely than in Capo, though you could be sowing the seeds of confusion, but that seems unlikely. [Prediction=Pending]

shlin28 (4) - Possible Innocent, murdered N1. [Prediction=Innocent]

Northnovas (3) - Nothing to suggest ulterior motives. [Prediction=Unclear]

TruePraetorian (3) - Alerted my attention with his second post, as it came just minutes after GH's and was a pointless bandwagon. Looks like he will die this round, no opinion on that, as I have re-thought my position and it looks like he's become a scapegoat. [Prediction=Unclear]

BananaBob (3) - His first post smells, its got a stench to it, it's too detached, to neutral. It seems guilty, but I'm not willing to place anything further on him until he has posted more (or less). [Prediction=Unclear]

Makanyane (3) - Posts seem light-hearted and sincere, nothing out of the ordinary. [Prediction=Unclear]

Twilightblade (2) - Lurking, and made 1 poor bandwagon vote. [Prediction=Unclear]

Sigurd Fafnesbane (2) - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

Joe Monks (2) - Lurking, no useful contributions. Other than making an invalid vote. [Prediction=Unclear]

Omanes Alexandrapolites (2) - Made 1 good point on page 4(?), I'm willing to trust his judgement as analysis of his post and the post he quoted seems to draw the same conclusion as his. [Prediction=Innocent]

Sarathos (2) - Player who has not been involved other than 1 post that has elements of scum and elements of innocence. [Prediction=Unclear]

Kommodus (2) - Your record as a Mafia finder and your experience makes your inactivity seem to be for personal reasons. Myself and the rest of the town will need your assistance later if we are going to catch the Mafia. However, I'm not entitled to trust you, until you produce something.[Prediction=Unclear]

scottishranger (1) - Possible Innocent, murdered N1. [Prediction=Innocent]

Tiberius of the Drake (1) - AFK. [Prediction=Unclear]

Warluster (1) - Possible Innocent, murdered N1. [Prediction=Innocent]

Yaropolk (1) - AFK. [Prediction=Unclear]

Warmaster Horus (1) - AFK. [Prediction=Unclear]

*If anyone else has anything else they'd like to add I'll be glad to add it.

Now that leads to my FoS:
FoS: Drisos
FoS: CountArach
FoS: HannibalBarc
 FoS: Elite Ferret

After all that analysis, I'm going with my gut:

Unvote: TP; Vote: CountArach

HannibalBarc Next!