Netherworld Mafia [Concluded]

[pevergreen]

Congrats on 5k posts.

Vote: TP
Lets hear a nice defence.
Tally:
Caius = 1 (GH)

Mouza = 1 (Drisos)

Drisos = 1 (Mouza)

TruePraetorian = 4 (pevergreen, w&f, Ryth, FH)

GeneralHankerchief = 1 (TinCow)

Kommodus = 1 (Tratorix)

Fahad I = 1 (Kommodus)

[FactionHeir]

Eh, didn't even notice I had 5k, thanks though! :)

[Paradox]

Vote:Caius

His quietness raises suspician.

[Ferret]

vote:TP

is he even playing?

Caius = 1 (GH, Fahad I)

Mouza = 1 (Drisos)

Drisos = 1 (Mouza)

TruePraetorian = 4 (pevergreen, w&f, Ryth, FH, EF)

GeneralHankerchief = 1 (TinCow)

Kommodus = 1 (Tratorix)

Fahad I = 1 (Kommodus)

[pevergreen]

Correct Tally:

Caius = 1 (GH, Fahad I)

Mouza = 1 (Drisos)

Drisos = 1 (Mouza)

TruePraetorian = 5 (pevergreen, w&f, Ryth, FH, EF)

GeneralHankerchief = 1 (TinCow)

Kommodus = 1 (Tratorix)

Fahad I = 1 (Kommodus)

[CountArach]

Alright, thinking back to my earlier reasoning it would appear that TruePraetorian would fit that bill perfectly. He is inexperienced without being a noob and would have the grudge factor against certain townies. So therefore:

Vote: TruePraetorian

As a great man once said:
"Shem on you and your houses if you don't do the same as me"

[pevergreen]

Unvote: TP, Vote: CA

Its a gut feeling I've had. That last post and your earlier reasoning just helped me along

Caius 2 (GH, Fahad I)
Mouza 1 (Drisos)
Drisos 1 (Mouza)
TruePraetorian 5 (countarach, w&f, Ryth, FH, EF)
GeneralHankerchief 1 (TinCow)
Kommodus 1 (Tratorix)
Fahad I 1 (Kommodus)
CountArach 1 (pever)

[CountArach]

You've gotta love substantive evidence

[pevergreen]

Gut feeling ive got.
that and:

However, we are also not likely to be dealing with a veteran mafia player, because the killings were too high-profile and are likely to attract attention onto themselves.

Wrong. I did it in your mafia game and nearly won.

[Beefy187]

You probebly wont listen to me but leave TP for WoG

Lynching a guy who cant defend them selves are only gonna benefit the mafia
TPs inactiveness suggests his either too busy in RL or he is not aware that the game started. In latter case he is most likely townie

At least wait until he shows up to defend him self.

[Andres]

I still don't like this post of TinCow:

With no information to go on, my natural instinct is to vote Sasaki, since I doubt I'll ever trust him anyway. That seems cheesy, though, and there's really no evidence to go on so far except for the numerous people claiming to have not received a PM. Some are probably telling the truth, but I would bet that at least one of them said that intentionally to make us think they were town. With nothing more to go on, I will wait and see if any evidence comes out. For now...

Vote : abstain

Hence why I voted him round 1:

Vote : TinCow

Sounds way too neutral. Also, it's too much explanation for a 1st round abstain vote.

My vote was ignored by TC.

And now you vote GeneralHankerchief because he misread the write-ups That's an awfully bad reason.

Neutral sounding post; very much unnecessary explanation, voting for a bad reason.

Vote : TinCow

My friend, I suspect you know more than you let on.

Oh come on Kommodus. Fahad is fairly new to mafia games and your reason for voting him is bad.

FoS : Kommodus

As for me being less active: I went to the Ardennen Friday, came back Sunday afternoon. And there's also Easter and the magic 30

[TinCow]

My vote was ignored by TC.

And now you vote GeneralHankerchief because he misread the write-ups That's an awfully bad reason.

Neutral sounding post; very much unnecessary explanation, voting for a bad reason.

I didn't ignore your post, I simply didn't see a reason to respond because your reasoning was fair. I completely understand how my first post could have been seen in that light.

I very much disagree that my reason for voting for GH is a bad one, though. The write-ups are the only hard evidence available to us at the moment. GH is not an inexperienced player. From what I understand, he created this entire game at the Org. I find it very unlikely that he would simply skim the write-up if he were pro-town. Like the rest of us, he would be looking at it for details that could help us win. The only reason to skim it is if he already knew what it would say.

[Northnovas]

Well I was thinking run off from Capo II like Prole even if it is weak it's something. My thoughts were for TP but if he is inactive then that would mean he has not been involved with play.
If nothing else I will go with pevergreen's gut feeling:

Vote: CountArach

Tally from #217

Caius 2 (GH, Fahad I)
Mouza 1 (Drisos)
Drisos 1 (Mouza)
TruePraetorian 5 (countarach, w&f, Ryth, FH, EF)
GeneralHankerchief 1 (TinCow)
Kommodus 1 (Tratorix)
Fahad I 1 (Kommodus)
CountArach 1 (pever, NN)

[FactionHeir]

Please learn to count

Caius 2 (GH, Fahad I)
Mouza 1 (Drisos)
Drisos 1 (Mouza)
TruePraetorian 5 (countarach, w&f, Ryth, FH, EF)
GeneralHankerchief 1 (TinCow)
Kommodus 1 (Tratorix)
Fahad I 1 (Kommodus)
CountArach 2 (pever, NN)

[naut]

I'm tempted to change my vote due to recent understanding that TruePraetorian is AFK. And if he remains inactive during the rest of this phase I believe we will have wasted a vote, but I now have many more suspects and posts to analyse. Either way it wont necessarily harm the town/hell/underworld this early on. So I'll keep my vote on him, as the analysis by some has been sound. (TinCow's post above for example).

Thread under analysis.

[pevergreen]

Following a gut feeling of someone else?
FoS: NN

Even so, I appriciate the help.

Talk CA

[Sigurd]

HAHAHA...
Confirmed innocent.

Let's push for a townie victory shall we?

[Drisos]

Lynching a guy who cant defend them selves are only gonna benefit the mafia
TPs inactiveness suggests his either too busy in RL or he is not aware that the game started. In latter case he is most likely townie

I agree there. Better lynch someone else meanwhile and check if TP is wog'ed or not. will save us 1 lynch.

since my vote is otherwise useless, I'll Unvote: Mouza, Vote: Fahad what others call it, 'a gut feeling'..

[pevergreen]

Yes, lets...

But what are you going to do to help that Sigurd?

[Sigurd]

Having read the posts in this game... I have come to the conclusion that Drisos is mafia. My gut screams it and I feel lucky.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

HAHAHA...
Confirmed innocent.

Make that "very probably" instead of confirmed. My read on the killings (Excellent quick-summary Rythmic!) suggests that we have at least one rogue/SK in the mix. This means that the town cannot use this as an absolute standard, at least as yet. I'm thinking 3 Mafodaemon kills per night and one "independent" who got started N2.

Let's push for a townie victory shall we?

Indeed we shall.


I had suspicions based on post style D1, these continue, so:

Vote: Fahad I



Note: Sasaki, you know the drill on Holmes. This is a good game for that tool, but with less than 400 posts, he'll only have a sense of some of the "old hands"' so far. Your critique would/will be more valid soon.

[Drisos]

This isn't fair though, Sigurd, you have a much bigger chance than 1 out of 76 btw, Kukri didn't come forward yet about his card pick stuff, right?

[Sigurd]

Make that "very probably" instead of confirmed. My read on the killings (Excellent quick-summary Rythmic!) suggests that we have at least one rogue/SK in the mix. This means that the town cannot use this as an absolute standard, at least as yet. I'm thinking 3 Mafodaemon kills per night and one "independent" who got started N2.

[...] He turned to see an intruder, standing where the earthen tablet had set just moments before, glowing a pure, seeming to glow a pure, holy light from its very self. The intruder leapt into the air, with gallant wings catching [...] The intruder elevated itself, then came down on Sigurd with as much might as it could muster. Sigurd held out his pitchfork to block the sword, but the blade cut right through the meager defense, [...] lifting its sword, and slashed open the lock, freeing the souls. Its objective accomplished [...]

This is the work of an archangel, there is no doubt in my mind. The glow, the wings and the sword that can't be stopped. Who would in their right mind free the damned souls anyway. This is the work of the light, the enemy of the town.
I will find you Michael, and when I do, I will pluck those feathers one by one from your back and spit you over the flames of hell. The demons shall have roast angel for supper.

[Proletariat]

Wow, I'm glad I'm on your side.

[Northnovas]

Please learn to count

There are only 3 kinds of people in this world, people that can count and those that can't.

That's what happens when you C&P rushing to post a new tally and hope one does not go up before you send.

[Ferret]

It was better than my tally, I added on my vote and someone else's bu didn't change the numbers

[FactionHeir]

I think you both get to be the next WoG victims then

[Ferret]

wooo hooo, they always get the best deaths anyway

[naut]

Following a gut feeling of someone else?

To be honest I've been getting the same gut feeling. Maybe that's just the way CA plays, but it just seems to out of line. These are just some random thoughts, yet noting these two posts, #1 and #2. Here CA subtley protects Hannibal. Although a weak link, I'll continue. Post #3 suggests a semi-experienced player and #4 CA points the finger at TP, a player already under a bandwagon. I can take this 2 ways. CA is being sincere OR CA is directing the blame elsewhere.

The easiest way to detect lies through is to place pressure on the party involved, (but easy is relative, its still hard lol). If TP is AFK we can't gauge his reaction, makes it harder when finding other guilty parties.

Then again the only way to see if we're successful is after the night phase. But, then again an experienced player could manipulate it, by not killing during the night. Or we may not be able to find clues due to possible secret roles.

Now if we take a closer look at those who have been knocked of so far they consist of lurkers and experienced players who could have posed a serious threat to the Mafia. These Mafioso know what they are doing. The make-up of those involved is becoming increasingly more defined (and I can practise my Psychology too ). The 3 kills in the first night, and the 4 in the second suggests a Mafia member who either lives outside the US, thus meaning it was easy for them to miss the deadline or they are new and were unaware of the rules at that stage.

My second thought is that in this style of Mafia game, the Mafia know who each other are yes? (Like in GH's original?) So that means that at least 1 of them is/or at least seems to be experienced, thus it is hard to pin point Mafia members through an analysis of their experience and their murder targets (what I will term Noob-Vet Quotient), as the make-up of the Mafia may or may not vary from the experienced to the noobish.

Player by Player Analysis:
*Predictions may change on future analysis.

GeneralHankerchief (14) - Well, hard to judge at the moment. Makes a good point #126. Post #188 he claims 1 thing and goes another way. Stimulating useful discussion. [Prediction=Unclear]

Caius (11) - Hard to analyse, but at the moment I don't sense anything overly Mafia-esque in his posts. [Prediction=Unclear]

pevergreen (11) - Nothing sinister in his posting style. [Prediction=Unclear]

gibsonsg91921 (10) - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

Drisos (10) - Seems to be acting pro-town/hell, the writing style doesn't contain any tell tale Mafia signs. May be manipulating us, I'm interesting in the gut feeling Sigurd has about him. [Prediction=Unclear]

Sasaki Kojiro 9 - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

Proletariat (9) - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

TinCow (8) - Contributing and playing in a similar style to how he was in Capo, analysis suggests innocence. However, his posts contain an air of negativity, often a symptom of guilt. [Prediction=Pending]

Rythmic (8) - I'm sure I'm still suspicious to the rest of you all, but I'm glad to say that even if I'm dead I can still analyse this thread! [Prediction=Innocent]

CountArach (8) - The way he plays just feels incredibly scummy, much like in Capo, little other reasoning. Posts in question #1, #2.[Prediction=Unclear]

Mouzafphaerre (8) - Has been mostly under the radar so far, nothing out of the ordinary. [Prediction=Unclear]

Beefy187 (7) - None of his initial posts caught my immediate attention, I think this was a bad lynch first round. [Prediction=Innocent]

Elite Ferret (7) - A number of his posts caught my attention, simply on posting style. [Prediction=Unclear]

FactionHeir (6) - A mixture of suspicious posts and useful posts. [Prediction=Unclear]

Seamus Fermanagh (6) - Seems pro-town/hell, posts and discussion useful at this stage. [Prediction=Unclear]

Ichigo (6) - Temporarily AFK. His few posts have been pretty standard Ichi. [Prediction=Unclear/Possible Innocent]

Crazed Rabbit (5) - Made some meagre contributions early on, quasi-lurking, but playing not entirely dissimilar to Capo. His experience means that we'll only find out his prerogative after more posts/contributions. [Prediction=Unclear]

Hannibalbarc (5) - Limited posts, all overly brief, they seem to be trying to 'withhold' guilt/knowledge. Uses others logic and contributes nothing new themselves. Voted 'pointlessly', which did create some discussion. Omanes pointed the finger at him, with a half decent point. [Prediction=Unclear]

Fahad I (5) - Suspicious posting style, the use of negative adjectives and lack of pro-nouns suggests he is hiding something. He pleads ignorance, true he hasn't played Mafia before(?), but still, not entirely convincing. [Prediction=Unclear]

Tratorix (5) - Hasn't said anything outrageous or incredibly useful so far. [Prediction=Unclear]

woad&fangs (4) - Has not said anything out of line or worthy of great analysis. Made a few good points so far. [Prediction=Unclear]

Andres (4) Your playing more sincerely than in Capo, though you could be sowing the seeds of confusion, but that seems unlikely. [Prediction=Pending]

shlin28 (4) - Possible Innocent, murdered N1. [Prediction=Innocent]

Northnovas (3) - Nothing to suggest ulterior motives. [Prediction=Unclear]

TruePraetorian (3) - Alerted my attention with his second post, as it came just minutes after GH's and was a pointless bandwagon. Looks like he will die this round, no opinion on that, as I have re-thought my position and it looks like he's become a scapegoat. [Prediction=Unclear]

BananaBob (3) - His first post smells, its got a stench to it, it's too detached, to neutral. It seems guilty, but I'm not willing to place anything further on him until he has posted more (or less). [Prediction=Unclear]

Makanyane (3) - Posts seem light-hearted and sincere, nothing out of the ordinary. [Prediction=Unclear]

Twilightblade (2) - Lurking, and made 1 poor bandwagon vote. [Prediction=Unclear]

Sigurd Fafnesbane (2) - Possible Innocent, murdered N2. [Prediction=Innocent]

Joe Monks (2) - Lurking, no useful contributions. Other than making an invalid vote. [Prediction=Unclear]

Omanes Alexandrapolites (2) - Made 1 good point on page 4(?), I'm willing to trust his judgement as analysis of his post and the post he quoted seems to draw the same conclusion as his. [Prediction=Innocent]

Sarathos (2) - Player who has not been involved other than 1 post that has elements of scum and elements of innocence. [Prediction=Unclear]

Kommodus (2) - Your record as a Mafia finder and your experience makes your inactivity seem to be for personal reasons. Myself and the rest of the town will need your assistance later if we are going to catch the Mafia. However, I'm not entitled to trust you, until you produce something.[Prediction=Unclear]

scottishranger (1) - Possible Innocent, murdered N1. [Prediction=Innocent]

Tiberius of the Drake (1) - AFK. [Prediction=Unclear]

Warluster (1) - Possible Innocent, murdered N1. [Prediction=Innocent]

Yaropolk (1) - AFK. [Prediction=Unclear]

Warmaster Horus (1) - AFK. [Prediction=Unclear]

*If anyone else has anything else they'd like to add I'll be glad to add it.

Now that leads to my FoS:
FoS: Drisos
FoS: CountArach
FoS: HannibalBarc
FoS: Elite Ferret

After all that analysis, I'm going with my gut:

Unvote: TP; Vote: CountArach

HannibalBarc Next!

[naut]

Tally as of #240:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Caius 2 (GH, Fahad I)
Drisos 1 (Mouza)
TruePraetorian 4 (CountArach, w&f, FH, EF)
GeneralHankerchief 1 (TinCow)
Kommodus 1 (Tratorix)
Fahad I 3 (Kommodus, Drisos, Seamus)
CountArach 3 (pever, NN, Ryth)

15 votes out of a possible 33 isn't good enough. Too many lurkers.