Liveblogging the Shiite-Shiite Meltdown in Iraq

[Lemur]

Since I was firmly smacked for dissing bloggers in a previous thread, here's some love: liveblogging the Shiite on Shiite mess in Iraq. In English, for your convenience.

Here's a helpful index of soldier blogs. No way is it complete, but it's a good jumping-off point.

If anybody has other non-MSM sources of firsthand reporting, please toss them in the pot.

[spmetla]

I've been nervously following this the last few days. Really a bloody mess and one that will either make or break the Iraqi government. I think if Maliki fails to secure Basrah for the government and pacify Sadr city then the Iraqi government will probably crumble around him. On the other hand if it succeeds in beating the Mahdi army and Sadr's other supporters then he really has secured the Iraqi government by establishing a powerful base for its support by dismantling the largest non government bloc in Iraq.

Liveleak has been proving well for some video feed of what is happening. http://iraq.liveleak.com/

I just hope that pictures of defections by Iraqi army/police members are the exception and not the rule.

[Banquo's Ghost]

I just hope that pictures of defections by Iraqi army/police members are the exception and not the rule.

Sadly, the Basra police are the Mehdi Army. They're not defecting, just aligning.

This was a hugely ill-judged move by a very weak prime minister in the hope of influencing the coming elections. The British are starting to be drawn in (I though Basra was safe and secure, Mr Brown?) and even if the militias decide on the better part of valour because of that, the south belongs to Iran now, so they'll be back.

Baghdad is under curfew and Maliki is so weak he has had to extend his deadline for militas to hand in weapons.

Good job the Sunni militas are keeping on-side, isn't it. Isn't it?

Interesting links, Lemur. I'm intrigued about the reports of al-Maliki announcing that those who don't support him must therefore be the enemy. Wonder where he got that policy from?

[Furious Mental]

After Sadr's bloc boycotted alot of the previous elections and left government posts to their rivals, they were probably not going to make the same mistake. I would not be surprised if this whole operation is meant to innoculate Sadr before these elections. I think Sadr may actually have called Maliki's bluff by calling his militia off the streets but keeping their arsenals in tact.

[Big_John]

Since I was firmly smacked for dissing bloggers in a previous thread,

[Dâriûsh]

Is Sadr back from Iran?

I read that he just told his gangsters to stop shooting at the Badr mili... I mean government forces.


I am not too up-to-date with news these days. Cool blog by the way.

[drone]

From a more "respectable" source:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his followers Sunday to lay down their arms and end six days of clashes against U.S. and Iraqi forces if the government agrees to release detainees and give amnesty to Sadr's fighters, among other demands. But after the statement, mortar attacks continued in Baghdad and Basra, and violence persisted in many pockets of the country.

Apparently, Sadr is offering a cease-fire, but he wants a few concessions...

[Banquo's Ghost]

In 2004, Sadr's militiamen fought fierce battles in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, refusing to surrender or negotiate until Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani stepped in and brokered a truce. Today, Sadr appears more politically astute. If he succeeds in helping end the clashes, it could improve his standing ahead of provincial elections later this year.

Interesting.

In addition, I'm not at all convinced al-Sadr has as much control over his militias as he likes people to believe. There are several reports that his politicking has alienated many and he is not well-liked.

There are a lot of people biding their time for the moment when the coalition leaves and scores can be settled. In that part of the world, grudges fester for a very long time - amongst many reasons why I believe we should get out of the cross-fire and let them sort it out sooner, rather than later.

[Furious Mental]

Something not often mentioned is that the tribes which created the Anbar Awakening Council just happened to be tribes that have long historic rivalries with the Al Qaeda-affiliated tribes. I suspect that alot of these groups view the Americans, Al Qaeda and the current government as ephemeral in relation to much older vendettas.