The 21st Century Satan

[discovery1]

What is our niche?

How about ridiculously advanced technology? Aerospace, medical, etc? Course, I would be one of the people building it.

[Lemur]

Disco, I honestly thought he was kidding. TuffStuff, the future of America is bright, my man. Don't let the doom-sayers getcha down.

[Incongruous]

Disco, I honestly thought he was kidding. TuffStuff, the future of America is bright, my man. Don't let the doom-sayers getcha down.

Can I please have an opinion as to why?
Why is this no defferent than believing Al Gore?
It's fact right? Proved by economics?

[Crazed Rabbit]

Race war? Bah, if anything it'll be a religious war.

CR

[Adrian II]

Race war? Bah, if anything it'll be a religious war.

CR

Yup. And a spectacular one it'll be. From afar, that is.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Sure - I can be optimistic. I realize that people are always talking about how things are better on the other side, but sometimes they are right. The 20's were a decent example. Sure things got "better" in the last century, but the fixes to the rot were sorted out in a massive, suicide inducing economic catastrophe... one that we are better for now, but I'm sure that people living in that period would have rather been on the receiving end of the deal than the work to the bone end.

Maybe it is because my adrenal cortex burned out and I have a liver disease, but I don't view the future through a bright lens. In fact, the only thing I'm looking forward to is a land grab, take no prisoners civil war... maybe that's not true, but it would be interesting.

I majored in history and don't want to be a teacher - I have to go back to school and learn a whole new deal. I work with a Chinese company (I am the only white guy there and I don't speak much mandarin) and I'm not very good at the job.

uuuugh. It is much easier to stock up on guns and put a motte and Bailey around my house than to plan for an internationally competitive future.

[Watchman]

Pff. You think the US is on the decline ? It ain't got anything on China. If that place doesn't undergo some direly needed reforms (which its leaders don't want to carry out) sometime fast to fix at least the worst of its mounting domestic troubles, my bet is they're going to have another honest-to-God Communist revolution, civil war or somesuch in a few decades.
And being the police state they are, the problem-solving instruments they have in place mostly involve violence against dissidents. Not quite what's going to be needed to avoid a major domestic rupture and/or economic meltdown I'd say.

The poor have always demonstrated a willingness to only put up with so much crap before the choice between dying of starvation and dying with a weapon in hand trying to take down the system starts tilting in the favour of the latter.

Yup. And a spectacular one it'll be. From afar, that is.

Meh. It's not religion they're fighting about but the usual murky soup of politics, conflicting interests, cultural schism and whatever. Religion just gets its usual role as the convenient rallying point and blunt instrument for the radicals.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Disco, I honestly thought he was kidding. TuffStuff, the future of America is bright, my man. Don't let the doom-sayers getcha down.

Lemur-no offense, but I don't see it. I see a dearth of insight in my generation. It's like the well dried up. We expect quite a bit, but nobody does anything other than service jobs. Really poorly to boot. We arn't the working poor either. Motivation is either dead or misguided.

Maybe Wisconsin is different.

[Lemur]

Can I please have an opinion as to why?
Why is this no defferent than believing Al Gore?
It's fact right? Proved by economics?

Lemur-no offense, but I don't see it. I see a dearth of insight in my generation. [...] Motivation is either dead or misguided. Maybe Wisconsin is different.

Who knew that suggesting America's future is bright would be so controversial?

Let's look at some basics. America's greatest strength is our ability to re-invent ourselves. We're like Madonna, adjusting our economy and our persona every couple of years to better exploit the gay dance market, or in our nation's case, the world economy. But the gay dance market and the world economy aren't that different, really.

I don't know how to respond to broad generalizations about "my generation" except to say that such talk is a constant, no matter what time period you examine, and it never means much of anything. I'm sure Napoleon's Hussars were peeved about how standards had slipped by 1816, and would grouse into the night about these new, soft little Hussars who barely deserved the name much less the uniform. Pick a time period, pick a subject, and there's going to be grumbling about how the new kids have it so much better than the old kids, and they're such brats, etc. etc. etc.

So let's get back to America, and why we're gonna rock the 21st Century like a hurricane.

Wanna get into software development? Better get your butt to the U.S.A. Wanna design any high-tech device worth talking about, whether it's an Intel chip, a 3G iPhone or a shiny new medical device? Better get to the U.S.A., kids. Wanna study aviation? Better learn the universal language, English, and study at one of our schools. Wanna get ahead on the internet tubes? Well, the best development is happening in the U.S.A.

Wanna get next to the latest and greatest drugs and medical advances? You ain't gonna find them in Mumbai or New Delhi, friend. And forget about Shenzen. U.S.A., baby! And even the fields we've shamefully neglected, such as green power, are advancing faster here than elsewhere. Who's building the neatest and newest home fuel-cell devices? We are. Who's making the most efficient solar cells? We are.

Nah, there's two things you can count on: (1) Things are usually getting better, and (2) people are saying things are getting worse.

It's early days yet in the American Hegemony. We're not encumbered with an expensive empire (as were the Brits and the Romans), we're still vigorous and strong, and a long ways off from rotting from within (as with the Byzantines and the Ottoman Empire), and as soon as we can get our sandy buttocks out of Iraq, we'll start building goodwill amongst our friends and allies again.

We are a great power, and we've the potential to become much greater. I laugh at those who say America's best days are behind her. Hang around, friend, and watch what happens. Things are going to be interesting in the best sense of the word.

[Incongruous]

Ok, thanks.
How do you approach the growing economic crisis in the west?
It is a crisis isn't it? I am not in sync with economics btw.

[Lemur]

How do you approach the growing economic crisis in the west?
It is a crisis isn't it? I am not in sync with economics btw.

Sure, it's a crisis, and a darn tricky one to address. Here's the broad-stroke summary:

• Markets are very efficient, but they have inherent dangers
• Governments attempt to regulate markets to moderate those dangers
• Our credit market went kablooey in a big way, and some of the worst-behaved bits were the most-regulated
• Conversely, some of the better-functioning bits were some of the least-regulated (hedge funds, anyone?)
• Just to complicated matters, the Bush Admin. has made a point of downplaying all regulation, and generally setting the pythons to watch the snake house, which makes it even harder to tell where the regulation failed versus where the regulators failed versus where the market failed versus ...

So ...

Cleaning up this current credit mess will be an interesting task. But it's hardly the end of civilization as we know it.

[Papewaio]

Lemur-no offense, but I don't see it. I see a dearth of insight in my generation. It's like the well dried up. We expect quite a bit, but nobody does anything other than service jobs. Really poorly to boot. We arn't the working poor either. Motivation is either dead or misguided.

Maybe Wisconsin is different.

Same thing has happened in Taiwan. The current graduating population is seen as lazy and not wanting to work.

The same thing will happen in China but only quicker.

Combine the one child policy that creates little Emperors (the term for 4 grandparents who spoil their one and only grandchild) with a growing middle class and you will have one of the most spoilt generations in next to no time. The only thing that possibly could stop the lazy generation from widening is internal problems where the farmers rise against the richer city kids. But even the farmers have lots of little Emperors running around and what to just look after their grandchildren. So they in turn are encouraging them to go to the city and get more money.

So either a generation of very western "I'm the center of the universe Gen Y+1" will be in abundance over the next decade OR internal decent boils over and China goes through another cultural revolution and is no longer the manufacturing hub.

They will become either western or non-competitive.

Now for India it is a different story, they have large families, greater depth of English speakers, and are democratic. What slows down their economic growth to half that of Chinas is the caste system and very poor penetration of infrastructure which in turn curtails true long term growth.. In the end a vibrant India will also go throw the leisure industry growth, and I don't think India is to be worried about as much as China... after all India plays cricket.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Same thing has happened in Taiwan. The current graduating population is seen as lazy and not wanting to work.

The same thing will happen in China but only quicker.

Combine the one child policy that creates little Emperors (the term for 4 grandparents who spoil their one and only grandchild) with a growing middle class and you will have one of the most spoilt generations in next to no time. The only thing that possibly could stop the lazy generation from widening is internal problems where the farmers rise against the richer city kids. But even the farmers have lots of little Emperors running around and what to just look after their grandchildren. So they in turn are encouraging them to go to the city and get more money.

So either a generation of very western "I'm the center of the universe Gen Y+1" will be in abundance over the next decade OR internal decent boils over and China goes through another cultural revolution and is no longer the manufacturing hub.

They will become either western or non-competitive.

Now for India it is a different story, they have large families, greater depth of English speakers, and are democratic. What slows down their economic growth to half that of Chinas is the caste system and very poor penetration of infrastructure which in turn curtails true long term growth.. In the end a vibrant India will also go throw the leisure industry growth, and I don't think India is to be worried about as much as China... after all India plays cricket.

Sure - these things are all possible. I have never feared India.

I just don't feel as comfortable relying of games of wit, rhetoric and theory when there is an ominous totalitarian powerbeast hanging over our heads.

[drone]

Combine the one child policy that creates little Emperors (the term for 4 grandparents who spoil their one and only grandchild) with a growing middle class and you will have one of the most spoilt generations in next to no time. The only thing that possibly could stop the lazy generation from widening is internal problems where the farmers rise against the richer city kids. But even the farmers have lots of little Emperors running around and what to just look after their grandchildren. So they in turn are encouraging them to go to the city and get more money.

So either a generation of very western "I'm the center of the universe Gen Y+1" will be in abundance over the next decade OR internal decent boils over and China goes through another cultural revolution and is no longer the manufacturing hub.

Regarding China's 1 child policy: what are their plans for the time when this skews the demographics and they end up with lots of old people and not enough workers? I'm not really familiar with their health care/social security, but I would imagine this will be a problem even worse than the one we are going to face here when the baby boomers stop working.

Also, are they being affected by the rising food costs yet? Word on the street is that rice is getting kind of pricey. Surely this will not go over too well in the rural areas.

[Fragony]

baby boomers stop working.

Just globalwarm them. Didn't know they use that one in your habitat as well. Baby boomer$, good one. Could somebody kindly explain to me why governments are in any way different then the mafia.

[Watchman]

Could somebody kindly explain to me why governments are in any way different then the mafia.

Well, they're a whole lot more polite about missed payments due for one. And when you pay them to "protect" yorself, it actually means they do it rather than them refraining from busting your knees and nailing your cat to the door.
Plus you get to actually have a say in who runs the show, or at least in my neck of woods anyway.

How's that for starters ?

[Vladimir]

Regarding China's 1 child policy: what are their plans for the time when this skews the demographics and they end up with lots of old people and not enough workers? I'm not really familiar with their health care/social security, but I would imagine this will be a problem even worse than the one we are going to face here when the baby boomers stop working.

Also, are they being affected by the rising food costs yet? Word on the street is that rice is getting kind of pricey. Surely this will not go over too well in the rural areas.

It's a great way to have enough near-term manpower to fill an army. Chinese tend to plan for the long haul and it would be interesting if this was intended.

How strictly is this policy enforced anyway? Is it just a fine or do they suck the other ones down a vacuum tube?

Whoops. Not the old people, but all the males who can't find a wife.

[HoreTore]

Regarding China's 1 child policy: what are their plans for the time when this skews the demographics and they end up with lots of old people and not enough workers? I'm not really familiar with their health care/social security, but I would imagine this will be a problem even worse than the one we are going to face here when the baby boomers stop working.

As you note with the baby boomers here, this will happen everywhere, almost no matter what. China would have gotten this problem sooner or later anyway. In fact, since "regular" reproduction is so unstable and prone to booming, regulations are the only way to limit this problem.

Look at it long term: while we in the west will have this problem until the end of time, the chinese will just have it one more time.

Also, are they being affected by the rising food costs yet? Word on the street is that rice is getting kind of pricey. Surely this will not go over too well in the rural areas.

I would be very surprised if the price wasn't fixed by the government. And I'd guess that the chinese have a lot of money to blow on subsidies.

[Big_John]

Don't let the doom-sayers getcha down.

uhh.. did you just tell Tuff to assume some sort of optimism? mmm.. he don't roll like that.

[Geoffrey S]

Just can't stop attacking wind-powered spinning things?

[Tachikaze]

The death of the US will come from within, not without.

[Big_John]

The death of the US will come from within, not without.

mtv?

[Banquo's Ghost]

It should be noted that anyone who endures reading an opinion piece from the Daily Mail is bound to become depressed.

Crikey, the paper's masthead is "And Get Off My Lawn!"

[Tribesman]

It should be noted that anyone who endures reading an opinion piece from the Daily Mail is bound to become depressed.

Come on its funny , people stealing manholes
Amatuers what you do is go down the motorway and steal the railings off the bridges , its easier and has a much better return .

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

China also has a much bigger demographic problem than the West, as well. What's the ratio man to woman now? 8:1, once the currect generation start to die off there will be a massive population crash much worse than anything going on here right now.

We just have to hang on for thirty years or so.

[TevashSzat]

Why? Vietnam and Korea waere at war with the United States, even though we had nuclear power. Argentina - United Kingdom. People know that we will most likely not use it against them, at least not when our 50 states aren't threatened.

Would that stop China from moving into the Middle East or South East Asia? They don't have nuclear weapons (for the most part) and we wouldn't be likely to use any to deter them.

What then? Massive war.

Well, Vietnam and Korea still had a tentative backing from the Soviet Union. Even though the Soviets didn't help alot, a nuke from the US would have probably be met with nukes from the Soviet Union and no one wanted that.

Furthermore, China has no quarrel with SE Asia nor the Middle East. Trade is strong in both areas and there aren't strong anti-China governments there. China really has no big advantageous in invading these countries.

Seriously, just because China is growing in power and may rival the US in superpower status in the future, doesn't mean that we're all going to conquer the world. Just look at the US when it rose to the superpower status. Did it grow in international influence significantly? Yes, but the US certainely didn't start invading countries for world domination.