The 21st Century Satan

[drone]

Combine the one child policy that creates little Emperors (the term for 4 grandparents who spoil their one and only grandchild) with a growing middle class and you will have one of the most spoilt generations in next to no time. The only thing that possibly could stop the lazy generation from widening is internal problems where the farmers rise against the richer city kids. But even the farmers have lots of little Emperors running around and what to just look after their grandchildren. So they in turn are encouraging them to go to the city and get more money.

So either a generation of very western "I'm the center of the universe Gen Y+1" will be in abundance over the next decade OR internal decent boils over and China goes through another cultural revolution and is no longer the manufacturing hub.

Regarding China's 1 child policy: what are their plans for the time when this skews the demographics and they end up with lots of old people and not enough workers? I'm not really familiar with their health care/social security, but I would imagine this will be a problem even worse than the one we are going to face here when the baby boomers stop working.

Also, are they being affected by the rising food costs yet? Word on the street is that rice is getting kind of pricey. Surely this will not go over too well in the rural areas.

[Fragony]

baby boomers stop working.

Just globalwarm them. Didn't know they use that one in your habitat as well. Baby boomer$, good one. Could somebody kindly explain to me why governments are in any way different then the mafia.

[Watchman]

Could somebody kindly explain to me why governments are in any way different then the mafia.

Well, they're a whole lot more polite about missed payments due for one. And when you pay them to "protect" yorself, it actually means they do it rather than them refraining from busting your knees and nailing your cat to the door.
Plus you get to actually have a say in who runs the show, or at least in my neck of woods anyway.

How's that for starters ?

[Furious Mental]

China's income tax system is very lax, as I understand it. As it becomes more efficiently run and more people enter the tax brackets it will be able to support a much larger welfare state than the one which exists now (which is in an extremely shoddy state). Also the government could stop expanding the PLA's budget by so many billions of dollars a year.

[Abokasee]

Also the government could stop expanding the PLA's budget by so many billions of dollars a year.

Yeah it seems something cooking... lets have a look at its neigbours...



All its neighbours are weak (With the exception of russia which can be said "Golden age" if far over, and India which just dosnt match up) so its got alot of pickings it can just eat.

[Watchman]

I thought large-scale wars between industrialised nations were kind of passé these days ? What with their bad habit of becoming very very expensive, drawn out, and/or potentially nuclear. Plus sheer territorial conquest is really a pretty bad way to try to get resources, not that I could off the top of my head think of any really important one China could theoretically aquire by neighbourhood expansionism...

Plus then there's the geography. And the SE Asians' noted tradition of warm welcomes into their jungles.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I thought large-scale wars between industrialised nations were kind of passé these days ? What with their bad habit of becoming very very expensive, drawn out, and/or potentially nuclear. Plus sheer territorial conquest is really a pretty bad way to try to get resources, not that I could off the top of my head think of any really important one China could theoretically aquire by neighbourhood expansionism...

Plus then there's the geography. And the SE Asians' noted tradition of warm welcomes into their jungles.

These days meaning what? The past 50 years? Did you notice a variable?

The U.S. Hegemony. the USSR folded pretty early on and only really had the threat of nuclear war and the domino theory after that. China has all of that, 1.7 billion people and an incredibly hungry economy.

Do you believe large scale wars are over? If not, when will we start having them again?

What would be the conditions in which you could foresee such a massive conflict as a possibility?

[Vladimir]

Regarding China's 1 child policy: what are their plans for the time when this skews the demographics and they end up with lots of old people and not enough workers? I'm not really familiar with their health care/social security, but I would imagine this will be a problem even worse than the one we are going to face here when the baby boomers stop working.

Also, are they being affected by the rising food costs yet? Word on the street is that rice is getting kind of pricey. Surely this will not go over too well in the rural areas.

It's a great way to have enough near-term manpower to fill an army. Chinese tend to plan for the long haul and it would be interesting if this was intended.

How strictly is this policy enforced anyway? Is it just a fine or do they suck the other ones down a vacuum tube?

Whoops. Not the old people, but all the males who can't find a wife.

[HoreTore]

Regarding China's 1 child policy: what are their plans for the time when this skews the demographics and they end up with lots of old people and not enough workers? I'm not really familiar with their health care/social security, but I would imagine this will be a problem even worse than the one we are going to face here when the baby boomers stop working.

As you note with the baby boomers here, this will happen everywhere, almost no matter what. China would have gotten this problem sooner or later anyway. In fact, since "regular" reproduction is so unstable and prone to booming, regulations are the only way to limit this problem.

Look at it long term: while we in the west will have this problem until the end of time, the chinese will just have it one more time.

Also, are they being affected by the rising food costs yet? Word on the street is that rice is getting kind of pricey. Surely this will not go over too well in the rural areas.

I would be very surprised if the price wasn't fixed by the government. And I'd guess that the chinese have a lot of money to blow on subsidies.