Nuclear Exchange between Iran and Israel

[Seamus Fermanagh]

There is one loss, and that would be of lives.

Would be Great Captains -- of nation-states or non-state actors -- have historically been willing to accept this as a cost of achieving their objectives. This is especially true of the leader of a "jihadi" effort, since they know, not believe, but KNOW, that death for such a cause ensures that individual's salavation.

If such an attack occurred, Israel would disrespect as many borders, kill as many civilians, invade as many nations, and incur as much collateral damage as necessary to hunt down and kill every single person even remotely involved with it. We're talking no holds barred here.

As much as Hamas and Hezbollah like to talk up martyrdom, the leaders are just as invested in their power as any others. While they're happy to send young fanatics to blow themselves up, they may think twice about threatening their own survival in such an attack.

Of course, one shouldn't underestimate the insanity of many in the arab world.

Potentially, but they would face the same problem -- hunting a small number of the "responsible" among a great mass of innocents possessing a varying degree of sympathy for the anti-Israel cause. Israel lacks the resources to methodically eradicate all of those responsible on an individual basis, and massive military response would involve a slaughter of the (mostly) innocent that would parallel the kind of pogrom Israel was founded to prevent.

The Mossad hunted the planners of Munich and got many, but not all.

The IDF has invaded Lebanon several times, but not squashed the terror attacks.

Israel is only a small place, and for all its pluck can do only so much.

I suspect that Israel will, one day, be absorbed into some greater Middle East collective. What will be interesting to see will be the terms under which that occurs.