Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Of course, the most likely scenario for an Iranian nuclear strike on Israel would be a truck or cargo container driven into Tel Aviv (comparatively little arab/palestinian presence but lots of Israelis) by a jihadi from one of the militant sects available. Even if the nuclear signature were linked to an Iranian facility, Iran would claim that the material/device had been stolen

The inevitable crackdowns in the territories would generate increased "hero" status for Hamas, Hezbollah, and whatever other group (if any) pulled off the physical attack. Since this
would increase recruiting and polarize the situation further -- both of which would enhance the power of these non-state actors -- it is very much to their benefit to carry out such a strike as soon as they can procure the materials. For them, it is win-win.
I think you severely underestimate the responce of the use of a nuke, no organisation would survive taking responsibillity. None would dare sponsor them and I suspect that most Palestinians on the street would also feel that it's one hell of an overkill (aka support dropped to zero). It's an open declaration of war, where the Israelis will have all the western world as support and the Arab world will stay very quiet.

And Iran's nuclear reputation would be severly damaged. At best (for them that is) no bombs will fall.
But still either they lie (dropping their trustworthyness to about zero) or they cannot control their nuclear material. Both cases spells the doom for any influence in the region outside pure bullying.