Iran and Israel at War

[Divinus Arma]

not going to happen

Wow. Impressive and well-articulated argument. You are truly a scholar and I have been enlightened by your contribution.

[Ice]

Wow. Impressive and well-articulated argument. You are truly a scholar and I have been enlightened by your contribution.

Well, this thread deserves such a response.

Edit:

I'll humor you.

Israel's air force doesn't have the ability to do what you just said. Now they could use missiles strikes, but I'm betting that's going to be less effective than an air strike. The Iranians will see these missiles and will fireback. Both sides will suffer massive causalities probably in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions. Israel will not start a war that will cost millions of lives of their own citizens. Not only that, but Iran will throw everything they have at Israel suicide bomber wise.

a) will never happen

Iran will retaliate if attacked

b) seems plausible, but you forgot the suicide bombers

c) won't ever happen- Iran knows they will get crushed

Just because some ex nut is talking about blowing up Iran's nuclear program, does not mean all out war. It's fairly easy to see.

[PanzerJaeger]

Israel hits Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran throws a fit. Done.

A single hit works in everyone's best interest. Israel is happy, America is happy, and Mr. A's power is firmly re-established.

Iran won't cut their oil, as they need the cash just as much as we need the energy. There certainly won't be any prolonged war.

[Banquo's Ghost]

It's not currently possible for Israel to conduct such a first strike, but if it were, I suspect PJ is near the truth. Iran would not react except through her proxies.

However, before basing any discussion on the ex-Mossad agent's wind-up (hasn't America tired yet of being scared into foolishness by nutters with agendas?) let's ask ourselves a question:

Even if they possessed a nuclear weapon, why on God's green earth would Iran use it? (When reflecting, please bear in mind that Iranians, like Russians, love their children too).

[rory_20_uk]

Using a person not in a government agency, but still with gravitas is a way of sabre rattling with plausible deniability.

I imagine (maybe I'm wrong) that Iran has a decent amount of AA missiles probably from Russia or China. So using F-16 / F-15 attacks would be very expensive in resources and manpower. saturating air defences with planes works - as long as you accept high attrition rates.

Firing missiles from Israel would be cheaper in many ways but probably less accurate.

Surely Iran has as far as possible planned for the eventuality that the plants must be able to withstand several air to ground missile strikes?

A ground war is non-sensical as it plays to Israel's strengths: tanks would be picked off at range by missiles, planes and drones. The unsupported troops then have to withstand cluster bombs, enemy tanks and troops. This even ignores the logistics of having the supply train mauled every inch it goes forward.

Iran IMO has two options and they are rather "boom or bust"

Do practically nothing, but increase funding to Iraq / Afghanistan forces (bleed America / allies) and utilise suicide bombers and rockets (hurt Israel).

Germ / chemical weapon attack - missiles laden with VX / sarin etc etc in a attempt to break Israel's back before it can react.

In the second instance there is a slight chance that others such as Syria might also launch a missile attack as well...

The first is the 99% option, the second is the "fingers crossed the nukes leave more of us intact than the nerve gas leaves the intact".

China will sell arms to whoever has cash / oil for them. Russia will sell for cash.
America give so much aid to Israel it can not make a difference in the first scenario, and in the second there's little to do ecept send in the cleanup crews.

[rory_20_uk]

Oh, a further option: Link

Smash the nukes then fight a war.

Israel might need to destroy the missiles with planes before destroying the threat in case the missiles are launched as soon as planes invade their airspace.

[Whacker]

Even if they possessed a nuclear weapon, why on God's green earth would Iran use it? (When reflecting, please bear in mind that Iranians, like Russians, love their children too).

Yes, I'm sure they do love their children, as much as we love ours. It's not the average person that's to worry about, it's these insane fools currently in power, i.e. Bush, Ahmadinejad, Putin, etc.

[Lemur]

Even if they possessed a nuclear weapon, why on God's green earth would Iran use it? (When reflecting, please bear in mind that Iranians, like Russians, love their children too).

Unlike most other countries, Iran has a long and storied history of supporting terrorist groups, supplying them with money, weapons and training. Hezbollah has direct ties to the Iranian government, and is responsible for some outrageous stuff. We don't have any reason to believe nuclear weapons would not be passed from Iran to Hezbollah, or another proxy group.

Keeping Iran away from the nukie-nukies would be a good thing.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Unlike most other countries, Iran has a long and storied history of supporting terrorist groups, supplying them with money, weapons and training. Hezbollah has direct ties to the Iranian government, and is responsible for some outrageous stuff. We don't have any reason to believe nuclear weapons would not be passed from Iran to Hezbollah, or another proxy group.

We don't have any reason to believe that they would be. In fact, all the evidence is that whilst Iran certainly supports terrorist groups, they have no interest in arming them with anything other than conventional weaponry.

Iran already has access to fairly serious biological and chemical weaponry. Why hasn't a suicide bomber detonated a nerve gas bomb in Tel Aviv? Same reason that Pakistan's nutcases haven't been given a "suitcase" nuke to rearrange Delhi. Because the Iranian regime is not suicidal.

They are a regional player utilising proxies to fight for their political ends - just as the United States does (another of the few countries with a long and storied history of supporting terrorist groups). They have no interest in a one-way ticket to oblivion.

Keeping Iran away from the nukie-nukies would be a good thing.

I don't disagree, but the best way to do that would be through removing them from Israel and Pakistan - and France, the UK and North Korea. Since that's an unlikely scenario, the Iranians will get their strategic balance one way or another, sooner or later.

Eventually, the USA will get the clue that her enemies in the region are Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, not Iraq and Iran. The former are where the Islamicist looneys are produced and succoured. Indeed, just as happened in the aftermath of 9-11, Iran - which has its own terrorist problem, by the way - could develop into a really strong partner out there. Especially if we shut up and let Ahmadinejad face an election next year where he has to run on his domestic record.

[Fragony]

Because the Iranian regime is not suicidal.

Or maybe they are evil nor insane, but I still think having nukes there is a bad idea.

[FactionHeir]

If they are neither evil, nor suicidal nor insane, then why do you still think it to be a bad idea when so many other nations have them?
Just a gut feeling?

[Tribesman]

but I still think having nukes there is a bad idea.
Today 17:32

That may well be , but kim il elvis has just shown that having nukes means you can act the maggot and get away with it

I don't deny that we have funded and trained violent groups in our time. However, Iran's proxies have been exceptionally violent and unrestrained.

Bollox , have your tenso now what part of exceptionally violent death squads is it that isn't as bad as them middle eastern feckwits . Do they slaughter with a smile or something , do they say have a nice day perhaps?

[Reverend Joe]

DA, you really need to be less leading with your titles. The first thing I did this morning was turn on the Guild, and this was the first thread I saw. I damn near had a heart attack, thinking that an official state of war had been declared.

Come to find out, you're talking about a rumour of a possibility of a theoretical war.

[FactionHeir]

Unlike most other countries, Iran has a long and storied history of supporting terrorist groups, supplying them with money, weapons and training. Hezbollah has direct ties to the Iranian government, and is responsible for some outrageous stuff. We don't have any reason to believe nuclear weapons would not be passed from Iran to Hezbollah, or another proxy group.

While I do not doubt there is some validity in your statement, I do not believe you can just state it without at the same time admitting that the U S of A does the same thing: Support terror organizations, rebels to destabilize "hostile" governments, groups to cause a ruckus in other countries.

Those rebels that are then caught, possibly tortured and then killed are then quoted as Human Rights Violations and harsh treatments of citizens rather than what it actually is: Treason. Punishable by death in the states as well last I heard.

Except of course if you say "why do you hate freedom" or "if the USA supports them, they are no longer a terrorist organization".

In fact, when news first broke of those Anbar councils, the MSM was reporting about it as the US (Military) with blessing from the government supporting insurgents and terrorists in Iraq. But as they seemed to become useful enough, the way they were portrayed changed too. Now they are called "freedom fighters" and "anti insurgents" or "Support groups".

Needless to say, that is similar to what happened back in Afghanistan with Al Qaeda.