The Final US Election Thread

[Hosakawa Tito]

I don't think so.

The Florida primary is not a reasonable gauge. It was closed primary for one, so only registered Republicans could vote. Republicans in Florida tend to be socially Conservative.

I never understood why Giuliani thought that he would do well there in the Primaries - the general maybe, but the primaries? Against Conservative Republicans?

NY is very different. We all like Giuliani. He is a Regional politician and is very good at it. Conservative Republicans WILL vote for Rudy and so will independents. Many Democrats will as well, especially against a no name. He doesn't infuriate anyone and most people like him.

He was chronically overestimated in the primaries and now people are going to chronically underestimate him in NY politics

I agree with Seamus that Giuliani's chances at Hillary's senate seat are not good. He lost that seat to Clinton and the Dems in 2000, and NY, especially NYC, is dominatingly Democrat Party territory.
Giuliani also angered his own party by endorsing Gov. Cuomo instead of backing Pataki in 1994, and party disloyalty is never forgiven. As mayor he was quite divisive, except for his handling of the 2001 WTC attack, so Rudy has made too many enemies within his own party. I think that like McCain, Rudy's time has past, and I don't think he can get it back.