I think he has a shot - anyone else and it would be no contest.If Hillary is offered, and accepts, a cabinet post, and right now that appears to be up in the air, Dem. Gov. Patterson will select her replacement who will serve till 2010. A special election will be held then to vote for a candidate to serve the rest of Clinton's term that expires in 2012.
I'm sure Guiliani is "kicking the tires" within the NYS Republican Party to determine if he can garner enough support to be the 2012 candidate, but that's almost 4 years off and anything can happen in that amount of time. As far as identifying another candidate goes...I have no idea. To have a chance in a liberal heavy State such as NY the Republican candidate will most likely have to be seen as a liberal Republican.
"That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there."
-Eric "George Orwell" Blair
"If the policy of the government, upon vital questions affecting the whole people, is to be irrevocably fixed by decisions of the Supreme Court...the people will have ceased to be their own rulers, having to that extent practically resigned the government into the hands of that eminent tribunal."
(Lincoln's First Inaugural Address, 1861).
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