Thoughts & Commentary on the Obama Administration

[Lemur]

Are you saying you think Iraq is going to go back to civil-war level violence?

No, 'cause a great deal of the ethnic cleansing has already taken place, so a return to full-on civil war is unlikely while we are there. But who gets to control what has not been settled, and there are a whole lot of armed people who think their tribe/group should take over. Things should get very hot as soon as we are perceived to be minimized.

The surge/bribe was a great solution to a self-inflicted mess, but the underlying disorder is still there. We established security, fantastic. But until there's a political solution the whole thing can unravel. And that is entirely up to the Iraqis.

If anything, the political situation in Afghanistan is more troubling. Leaving aside the improbability of defeating an enemy who can fall back to a secure base (Pakistan), let's ask the big questions:

• What level of political stability would be sufficient for our counterinsurgency goals?
• If the Karzai government is too corrupt and ineffective, is there a replacement group in Afghanistan or not?
• If not, what can we do about it?
• How long might it take to achieve minimal political stability?
• How long are we prepared to be there, and at what cost?
• What will success look like? (Please be realistic, and don't say "A functioning representative democracy," 'cause that is not happening in the next decade.)

-edit-

P.S.: Since I answered your question, CR, could you do me the courtesy of answering mine?