You have to remember, that these identical cities can’t construct ports and other high income trade buildings until they reach 2k in population and they won’t attract a Merchant’s Guild to further boost trade until they reach 6k, etc. The approximately 1.5% growth bonus that the low tax city gets will cause it to reach these thresholds faster. So the difference is not just raw tax income. The city that grows faster will become a trade hub more quickly (or an arsenal as a citadel). After a city maxes out its level, then you can have very high taxes for the rest of the game.
Of course, you can calculate the number of turns you save by looking at my first post. The growth difference between 7% and 8.5% only saves you a few turns, whereas the difference between 3% and 4.5% is considerable.
P.S. If you mean, would a large population on low taxes eventually pay more than a small population on very high, the answer is probably not for a while. CA/Sierra has tweaked the tax revenue mechanism so that a city of 24k does not gain ten times what a city with 2400 gains from tax income. Instead, thousands of extra citizens probably only pay a few dozen extra florins. A Huge City will earn much more for your empire because it gets access to lots of trade buildings and possibly a Master or HQ Merchant’s Guild, not because it has lots of taxpayers. Once your city is constructing Huge Stone Walls, the population has served its purpose. At this point, you can build all of the high end structures even if the population decreases. (I actually have this situation currently in Jerusalem.)
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