North Korean Missile Launch

[Shaka_Khan]

^ That would be a good chance to test the anti-missile defence if the missile goes near there.


A cash/food starved North Korea will be very tempted to sell their missiles/rockets. There are plenty of dangerous customers out there.
But countries who were against the launch will just penalize and then go back to normal. North Korea launched a satellite, which is legal. The US, South Korea, and Japan have no diplomatic relations with NK.

- China will protect NK because NK is China's important ally and a buffer zone against the US.

- The US is too busy and bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq. Their Korean and Japanese allies are not too eager to kill NK civilians and fight a war right at their doorstep.

- In the case of the South Koreans, the war could take place in their own country. Also, the South is already in the range of NK artilleries and various missiles. Today's rocket launch doesn't change South Korea's situation much.

- Most Japanese don't want to go back to the imperial era. Plus, they don't wan't to provoke China into an arms race.

- North Korea will continue to blackmail because of their terrible economy. They need cash. The launch of their long-range missile raised their leverage in negotiations. North Korea won't open up while Kim's regime is in control. Kim is afraid that opening up will encourage the NKs to overthrow him. Unlike China, the North has a powerful and wealthy neighbor of the same language. NKs will gladly switch sides once they find out the reality of the world.

Eventually, North will get to a point where the other countries can't avoid the situation. NK might even launch a nuke to test in the Pacific.