Duels occur during the night phase write-up. The point is that in 2 & 3, we lose if we get to another lynch round. I see no possible way for us to ever get another lynch round after this one. This is our last shot right here.
The only way to make it to another lynch round is if fewer than 3 people are murdered tonight. Since that has never happened before and the killers have no reason at all to drop a kill, I think such a scenario is a pipe-dream not even worth considering.
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