Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[GeneralHankerchief]

Crap, I'm really off today.

Unvote: The Late khaan
Vote: Abstain

Placeholder.

[ajaxfetish]

Challenge: ajaxfetish

Any reason?

Between this and the suspicious communications Sasaki highlighted between you, Yaropolk, and Aggonyduck, I'm gonna have to

vote: Stephen Asen

Ajax

[GeneralHankerchief]

Actually, I remembered what I was going to do:

Unvote: Abstain
Vote: Beefy

[Caius]

Vote:Abstain

Will vote later.

[LittleGrizzly]

Ohh crap im an idiot...

Unvote

this does make the case on TC more intresting...

'khaan are you not allowed to tell us why you want us to vote for TC ?

Or is there another reason you want us to vote TC

There was another post which made me slightly suspicious... (not as good as that case i had on 'khaan though )

from QJC

Ok i looked back at the post and its not suspicious actually...

[QJC]
So the killers were bold enough to kill the Pevers, most of whom were in the spotlight, and would probably be lynched and killed off soon.

The killers can't be newbies, I just don't think they would kill people who are must likely to get the attention and help other people to hide themselves.
FoS: The people who publicly made threats to the Pevers.

True, but my thoughts is that most of them were threatened to be WoGed and lynched, so killing them seemed a waste of kills for the mafia team.
[QJC]

But i quoted it all to put forward a different theory!

the rule of fun... the mafia probably thought it would be quite funny to mass execute pevers, with all the annoyance and havoc they caused killing them off could very well appeal to someone with a bit of a dark humor...

That or one of the still living pevers got worried and tried to kill quite a few off in the hope the other pevers would just get forgotten about...

[Thermal]

You issued your challenge at night. Challenges must be made during the day.



...

I didn't know that, and it's not patience, you clearly wouldn't of answered it if I hadn't brought it to your attention

[ULC]

The primary case, in my eyes, is how much TC is unnecessarily focusing on the kills, methods on how they are done, and which time they are done at. It all seems helpful, but nothing comes of it - he doesn't follow each up or to their logical conclusion, instead skipping from one thing to another. He is quick to dismiss lines of thought about the write ups that are not his, while not actually addressing the point the person made.

Case in point - TC recently dismissed Chimpyangs case that the hours had something to do with how kills are done. It's possible, in fact highly likely, the separated hours indicate, since both are divided by their killer types (Hour of Rat kills are Ninja, Hour of Ox kills are traitorous Samurai), that Ninja's strike first, and if they kill a Traitorous Samurai, then that Samurai doesn't get his kill for the night.

Instead, he dismisses the whole thing under the rug as sheer implausibility while not actually taking into account another possibility.

[Husar]

I don't have time for a full kill analysis at the moment, but one thing does jump out at me: three of the deaths were pevers.

Oh really? It's good that you noticed.
I'd find it quite fitting that you first complained about the pevers, then killed them, perhaps you even coordinated it somehow, then said something intelligent about how there is no overlapping.
For now I'll

Vote: TinCow

[White_eyes:D]

Vote YLC
Challenge YLC I owe you for joining that weird 'pever cult'

[ULC]

Vote YLC
Challenge YLC I owe you for joining that weird 'pever cult'

*sighs* Foolish one, I am Sanada Yukimura. I am the Crimson Demon of War!

[TinCow]

Case in point - TC recently dismissed Chimpyangs case that the hours had something to do with how kills are done. It's possible, in fact highly likely, the separated hours indicate, since both are divided by their killer types (Hour of Rat kills are Ninja, Hour of Ox kills are traitorous Samurai), that Ninja's strike first, and if they kill a Traitorous Samurai, then that Samurai doesn't get his kill for the night.

Instead, he dismisses the whole thing under the rug as sheer implausibility while not actually taking into account another possibility.

So, I'm guilty because I've played several games with Andres and recognize a pattern in how he does the write-ups? Nice. Please explain how it is "highly likely" that Chimpyang's theory is accurate.

Let's see if I can summarize the votes against me:

Sasaki - Gut instinct
YLC - Gut instinct, being too helpful, and disagreement with my interpretation of the write-up
Chimpyang - I have a URL avatar that is in a suit of armor
Husar - pevers died and I was annoyed with them

That's an incredible case you guys have built. It looks more like you've all flocked like lemmings to the 'gut instinct' claims by Sasaki and 'khaan and only tried to look for something scummy on me afterwards to justify meatballing. If I'm the choice for today's inevitable bandwagon, so be it, but at least do me the courtesy of putting forth a decent argument.

[Reenk Roink]

Ohh crap im an idiot...

Unvote

Master is very humble

Master has reason for everything he does. If Master votes for a dead warrior, there is infinite wisdom in it. We must learn the hidden lesson in such an action but to do so requires training.

Unvote

Now Master, my intuition which you trained me in using unfortunately has nothing at the moment on suspect. With that said my intuition which you trained me in using strongly says that TinCow is not Mafia. Of course, you think that also. I am very pleased that using my own faculties led me to same conclusion as Master. I must be doing something right in my studies, but it is all due to the greatest teacher.

[ULC]

So, I'm guilty because I've played several games with Andres and recognize a pattern in how he does the write-ups? Nice. Please explain how it is "highly likely" that Chimpyang's theory is accurate.

Let's see if I can summarize the votes against me:

Sasaki - Gut instinct
YLC - Gut instinct, being too helpful, and disagreement with my interpretation of the write-up
Chimpyang - I have a URL avatar that is in a suit of armor
Husar - pevers died and I was annoyed with them

That's an incredible case you guys have built. It looks more like you've all flocked like lemmings to the 'gut instinct' claims by Sasaki and 'khaan and only tried to look for something scummy on me afterwards to justify meatballing. If I'm the choice for today's inevitable bandwagon, so be it, but at least do me the courtesy of putting forth a decent argument.

If the argument is poor, why the vehemence? I for one, think it's the most sound case today, but that can change.

And, again, your focusing in on one aspect of why I said your guilty - I said your unnecessarily focusing on the write ups without creating anything productive at all. Your being helpful, while leading us nowhere. Your focusing on something that won't vote you back for poor reasoning. Your focusing on specific aspects that do not help find any of the killers, and when an avenue is brought up that might find a killer, you squash it. And for someone who has played in many of Andres games, and for someone who is usually very timely in gathering a case and being productive in finding the necessary evidence, your sorely lacking in this game. Shall I start bringing up Ephesus? Or should I bring in your posts from Midgard Saga II?

I am not following Khaan or Sasaki's "gut instinct" do not assign that to me TC - I have a case, I've stated it, and will continue to push it until your proven innocent or when it becomes clear that there is a more viable lynch.

[taka]

hm...?

vote:abstain

[Wishazu]

Vote Haudegen

Too quiet for my liking.

[Beskar]

Objection!
(To all those who have posted during this day phase already)


I have to admit, the replies have lost me. If it is the Mafia-roles doing a confusion effort, they are doing a good job as I am confused and lost.

I am going to instate a new rule. When you post votes, you have to give an argument for it, then we work together on dealing with those who we have actually have a real reason to suspect, opposed to "he smells funny, I vote him!" "he posts a lot, therefore its him!" (posting they are a lurker is fine though). We need to break down sources into information, working at different angles to get a picture.

In my next vote tallies, I am going to do a heading called: "Objection!" this will list people who just randomly vote without a trace of common sense.

Edit: On another note, stop replacing people, Andres. WOG them. No one has a clue what sort of role they are and if you get them a Mafia-role for example, you are really working against the townies.

[ULC]

Hmm...it appears I missed a point TC made.

It's highly likely that Ninja's strike first because it makes sense, and it makes it easier to resolve to peopl from different families targeting each other. Add into this that the ninja kills happen in the "Hour of the Rat" and the Traitor kills happen in the "Hour of the Ox" - lynches happen during the "Hour of the Cock" and duels take place during the "Hour of the Rabbit", and we begin to see a pattern.

Thus, it appears we have 3 ninja still, and either the Traitor's alternate kills or one has already died. Another thing about Andres write ups is that roles are not revealed upon death and it's up to the town to speculate if they made a correct lynch based on the nights results.

[TinCow]

And, again, your focusing in on one aspect of why I said your guilty - I said your unnecessarily focusing on the write ups without creating anything productive at all. Your being helpful, while leading us nowhere. Your focusing on something that won't vote you back for poor reasoning. Your focusing on specific aspects that do not help find any of the killers, and when an avenue is brought up that might find a killer, you squash it. And for someone who has played in many of Andres games, and for someone who is usually very timely in gathering a case and being productive in finding the necessary evidence, your sorely lacking in this game. Shall I start bringing up Ephesus? Or should I bring in your posts from Midgard Saga II?

Bring in whatever you want, I'm putting out the only useful evidence I see so far. As I previously said, I thought it would be useful at a later date to figure out exactly which kills were committed by which killers. That's been the objective of my write-up analysis so far. I see nothing remotely incriminating in the write-ups at all, so this is the extent of their usefulness in my mind. If you think I'm being unhelpful and leading us nowhere, then you presumably see something else useful in the write-ups that I am not discussing. If so, please enlighten us. If not, why aren't you also going after other people who have done the exact same thing, such as FactionHeir? Why are you singling me out?

I apologize if you don't think I've produced anything useful so far, but I'm doing my best to pull something solid out of the extremely limited evidence that has been presented to us. I am not the Oracle, I'm not psychic, and I don't know the location of the Holy Grail. You'll have to forgive me if I don't manage to ID a mafioso for you in the second round of the game.

[ULC]

Objection!
(To all those who have posted during this day phase already)


I have to admit, the replies have lost me. If it is the Mafia-roles doing a confusion effort, they are doing a good job as I am confused and lost.

I am going to instate a new rule. When you post votes, you have to give an argument for it, then we work together on dealing with those who we have actually have a real reason to suspect, opposed to "he smells funny, I vote him!" "he posts a lot, therefore its him!". We need to break down sources into information, working at different angles to get a picture.

In my next vote tallies, I am going to do a heading called: "Objection!" this will list people who just randomly vote without a trace of common sense.

Edit: On another note, stop replacing people, Andres. WOG them. No one has a clue what sort of role they are and if you get them a Mafia-role for example, you are really working against the townies.

Actually, this is called "baiting", in the hopes those voted for will take offense to it and make themselves open to being questioned. Only when it is followed up with random votes following the same logic or lack thereof that it becomes bad. That's when you begin to try to put pressure on those voting nonsensically.

[Reenk Roink]

Objection!
(To all those who have posted during this day phase already)


I have to admit, the replies have lost me. If it is the Mafia-roles doing a confusion effort, they are doing a good job as I am confused and lost.

I am going to instate a new rule. When you post votes, you have to give an argument for it, then we work together on dealing with those who we have actually have a real reason to suspect, opposed to "he smells funny, I vote him!" "he posts a lot, therefore its him!". We need to break down sources into information, working at different angles to get a picture.

In my next vote tallies, I am going to do a heading called: "Objection!" this will list people who just randomly vote without a trace of common sense.

From notes of Master on the virtues and limitations of logic:

Reasoning is too broad of a predicate to be of any use save rhetorical effect.

Logical thought is odd choice of words but logical inference simply deals with syntactic form and does not lead to truth or falsity of statements directly.

There is no epistemic difference between asserting incorrectly that a warrior is a ninja and making a valid but unsound argument that a warrior is ninja

[LittleGrizzly]

Master is very humble

Master has reason for everything he does. If Master votes for a dead warrior, there is infinite wisdom in it. We must learn the hidden lesson in such an action but to do so requires training.

Unvote

Now Master, my intuition which you trained me in using unfortunately has nothing at the moment on suspect. With that said my intuition which you trained me in using strongly says that TinCow is not Mafia. Of course, you think that also. I am very pleased that using my own faculties led me to same conclusion as Master. I must be doing something right in my studies, but it is all due to the greatest teacher.

I agree that people need to put more thought behind thier lynches...

Admittedly i tried to lynch a dead guy but i made the effort to go out and make a half decent case

Im going to look into some of the posters in further detail

[LittleGrizzly]

ok there isn't much about

Im going to vote YLC for surviving the pever massacare and his case on TC seemed... off...

[Sasaki Kojiro]

That's an incredible case you guys have built. It looks more like you've all flocked like lemmings to the 'gut instinct' claims by Sasaki and 'khaan and only tried to look for something scummy on me afterwards to justify meatballing. If I'm the choice for today's inevitable bandwagon, so be it, but at least do me the courtesy of putting forth a decent argument.

Gut instinct is a great reason for voting someone and the foundation of the game.

[AggonyDuck]

Gut instinct is a great reason for voting someone and the foundation of the game.

[Reenk Roink]

As master says Vote: YLC

Sasaki Kojiro and AggonyDuck:

[Rhyfelwyr]

Vote: LittleGrizzly

You are very determined to distract the town on the OOC pever issue...

[FactionHeir]

According to my theory, N3 kills are in order or ninja, ninja, SK, traitor.

Ninjas killed the fake pevers while the SK killed the actual pever. Doesn't seem to be much risk of overlap.

[woad&fangs]

vote: Stephen Asen

Because of his weird challenge on Ajaxfetish and because I think the bandwagon on TinCow is a bit absurd.

[LittleGrizzly]

You are very determined to distract the town on the OOC pever issue...

The fact is the killers went all out for pever's and you and YLC survived (i didn't know you were the other surviving pever) it could just be random luck that youb two weren't killed.. off course its a risky strategy to do that as a pever but as with poker the bigger the bluff...

FH well it was kinda risky to go for a pever seen as lots of people were gunning for pever's... if the SK and Ninja aren't in contact (which i think we can assume) surely the ninja's could have decided to go for pevergreen or the sk could have targetted the same fake pevers that they did...

Personally i would have gone for someone else to make sure i didn't waste a kill...

[Beefy187]

Actually, I remembered what I was going to do:

Unvote: Abstain
Vote: Beefy

I had enough of your baseless accusations.

I shall defend my honor with my sword.

Challenge: GH

I am most likely going to die if the duel takes place so heres my contribution.

As Split said before, the killers seems to be some moralists. Killing off lurkers, and killing off the pever brigade.

Any mafia vets will know that the lurkers are excellent lynch baits, or WoG baits. So killing them just seems to be against the basic idea. However I doubt any of the kills one done because of the lack of experience. As most of the gang seems to have more then two members. Whats the chance of both of them being newer players?

I say killing off lurkers strategy are done to enhance the mafia playing experience. To only let the active ones live so they can enjoy the game more. Those who are mad enough to do that kind of stuff is the extremely experienced players. Likely to have hosted a mafia games few times.

Therefore I think most of the killers are active, experienced and are mafia game hosts.

GH and Sasaki are my top suspects.

Also I just came up with the possibility of killers converting into peverism and then killed few of the pevers to make them look less suspecious. Thus YLC and Chaotix (I'm not sure if his still alive) can join in the list of suspects.

Thats my thoughts for now.