Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[AggonyDuck]

Vote: Shlin

[Death is yonder]

Vote:Shlin28

Well, there is but one confirmed innocent in this game, CA. As such I think I'll listen to Lord Shingen.

[Kagemusha]

Vote shlin28. Also large FOS to Stephen Asen. Yuo did not give any reasoning for challenging Ajaxfetish. Why?

[TinCow]

Whoa... I expected to wake up to a massive vote on me, not a massive shift to someone else. That was a pleasant surprise. Though I no longer feel in danger, I will still respond to YLC's long post against me several pages back out of courtesy. You're going to have to wait until I get to work though, as I can't do it in the few minutes I have at home before the commute.

Vote: shlin28

The only suspect who apparently has some actual solid evidence presented against them so far. Plus, the more votes on him, the more likely I am to survive.

[FactionHeir]

Seeing how shlin will be WoGged, is there a point in voting him?

FoS Chimpyang

For trying very hard to find outlandish reasons for TC's guilt.

[KukriKhan]

vote: shlin28

Following Master's orders.

[Beefy187]

Vote: Shlin

[PershsNhpios]

Really?

Is this the pattern of the game?

Takeda gives all innocents an order, and we follow it, and whoever CountArach suspects dies therefore?

It sounds more like a Total War game than a mafia game... oh well...

Vote: Shlin28 I can't see Andres making it this easy for the town to win.

[Dutch_guy]

So just to get things straight ( a lot happens when I'm sleeping ), CA, as confirmed pro town has gathered pretty much all of the battle ratings through public reveals in this thread (and not by PM...?).
And Shlin lied about his ? Guess that's about as good a case as we're going to have this far along.

Vote: Shlin.

[Kagemusha]

Really?

Is this the pattern of the game?

Takeda gives all innocents an order, and we follow it, and whoever CountArach suspects dies therefore?

It sounds more like a Total War game than a mafia game... oh well...

Vote: Shlin28 I can't see Andres making it this easy for the town to win.

This is Takeda Clan. We follow our master to the death if needs to be! I hope you are not challengin Takeda Shingen´s authority, that could result in quick death.

[Beefy187]

Really?

Is this the pattern of the game?

Takeda gives all innocents an order, and we follow it, and whoever CountArach suspects dies therefore?

It sounds more like a Total War game than a mafia game... oh well...

Vote: Shlin28 I can't see Andres making it this easy for the town to win.

Was going to say that, but its too early to for other to have that much reasons to vote. Its not like Shingen is going on blind either. So Shlin seems to be a valid choice.

[TinCow]

As promised.

Why, specifically, are you leaving out segments of my quotes? Any reason besides it leaves out clarification on your previous statements, and thus making the subject narrower and easier to handle?

I often clip quotes down to the bits that I am specifically responding to. I consider this to be easier to read than to quote an entire post when I'm not responding to an entire post. There are numerous reasons why I choose not to respond to every single bit of every single post; some are practical, and some are tactical.

Post 483

An attempt to analyze the write up - no issue here, normal townie behavior, even though you admit there is nothing to go on - Andres doesn't usually give ANY clues, if at all however.

I dispute your claim that Andres doesn't give any clues. On the contrary, I find Andres' write-ups are often those most worthy of intense scrutiny. He tells stories and connects characters with his write-ups, but he does it in a very intelligent and subtle manner. It is very difficult to find the clues in Andres' write-ups, but the clues are still there simply due to his style.

Post 504

Again, another attempt to analyze the write up, yet your analysis contains faulty logic - your quick to assume and assign rational to Ichigo's vote, yet, if what you said is true, then it would, you know, make sense that Ichigo would either A) not make his case so early, and bide his time to find another, or B) bring his case forward to get the mafioso lynched - available doctors can then protect him.

If you make the argument that Ichigo would not play it that way because he likes to be random, then you can't assign any logic to his vote, since why he did is "random". You were looking for a way to make an easy case against someone and place a vote, even if the case was upon shaky ground, at best.

I was using Ichigo's vote to provoke a response from both GH and Ichigo himself, it was not me blindly following Ichigo. It was just as useful to get Ichigo to give more info on his random vote as it was to pressure GH. It was a two-for-one vote, though it only succeeded against Ichigo.

Post 566

Your previous attempt is foiled! AMG!! Because traitors and ninjas are not aligned? Wasn't this common knowledge? It was shown that the traitors were not only new to the game, but also independent of the ninjas in motivation. Your analysis was originally based on the assumption as well that the Ninja and Samurai operated as two separate entities. Hmmm...

Now you're just reading into things looking for scum. I specifically said: "If true, it would conclusively show that the ninjas and traitors are not allies." Note the conclusively. The point was that it was actual hard evidence that they were opposed to one another, rather than just idle speculation and assumption, which is what we had before that point. I like hard evidence and I like being able to notch something up as 'true' rather than just 'assumed true.'

I pick my words carefully. If you ignore some of them, like you did here, then you are not understanding the meaning behind my posts.

Post 586

The main reason was that your case against GH was flawed initially - no one was going to follow it when it was based on a false assumption. But why jump on Sigurd specifically? I don't see a reason that would have negated you from not jumping on the "stupidly large bandwagon".

Again, my previous vote was against both GH and Ichigo, though done in more subtle manner against Ichigo. At the point of this post, I concluded that I wasn't going to get anything out of GH, so it was time to move on. I saw no point in jumping on the bandwagon here, because my vote would not result in extra pressure that was not already being exerted. The best option for a useful result for my vote was to put it someplace that was likely to result in a bit of pressure. IMO, that means putting it on someone who already had a few votes. Sigurd was my choice.

Post 596

You attempt to explain your reasoning for voting for Sigurd. It's fine as is, but 3 is a pressure vote? Not usually, that's more like it's under serious consideration by a few people. And Yaropolk was the only option? In a game with only half the people posting? They aren't lurking at all? No, but Sigurd is a strong player, and a good one at analyzing behavioral patterns. He is also known for being less active once killed off when not having a role, rather convenient, especially if he really is just to busy to come and post.

At that point, we had a huge bandwagon, and then Sigurd and Yaropolk were tied in second place with 2 votes each. There weren't many options for me to pick for a pressure vote, and 3 votes is certainly a hell of a lot more pressure than 1 or 2 votes. People notice 3 votes, as I think was blatantly shown by the bandwagon that quickly followed me.

As for Sigurd not being active, I'm getting tired of this argument. In the Chicago game, Sigurd specifically said that he had RL issues that reduced his time commitment. Based on that, we let him lurk. He then won as mafia, with the lurking being intentional the whole time. Reputations follow you between mafia games, and in my eyes, Sigurd not posting due to RL reasons has absolutely no proof of innocence. In fact, it makes me nervous.

Post 609

Asking for duel scores - can whatever they tell you be considered truthful? Won't trying to analyze what they tell and whether or not they are lying lead to WIFOM? How is this actually helpful, except to eliminate a target for the mafioso?

I never expected a response from Sasaki on that, it was simply me prodding him a bit. He does similar things to me in mafia games, though it's usually by PM. Sasaki and I tend to dance around each other a lot in every game. Frankly, I enjoy it. He's my favorite person to spar with.

Post 615

Wow we move fast - first none productive and bordering on self-destructive, it can now be used to find mafioso! But wait, isn't that the opposite of what you asserted before?

Not remotely. I'm not encouraging anyone to duel, I'm just agreeing that giving duel score claims to the person that we know for sure is pro-town is a decent safeguard. FYI, I submitted my own duel score shortly after I posted that.

Post 781

Pointless post made about eliminating players who annoy you because they changed their username. This one just simply smells scummy to me, and I can't quite articulate why.

Sometimes I just post for fun. If you doubt the sincerity level of my annoyance with the pever crew, ask any green moderator what my opinion was on that subject...

Post 789

Whoops, dueling is bad again. You won't actively discourage it though, or create a process to control it. Hmmm.....

It was always bad, I never said it wasn't. Your belief that I did is because you are distorting my words. As for not trying to discourage it, what more should I do than say I think it hurts the town and I won't personally engage in it? I can't exactly force it on people, can I? As for creating a process to control it, that's absurd. I'm not ATPG, I don't run around demanding that people do things that are out of my ability to enforce. I have no way to stop people from dueling, so I'm not going to waste my time with it.

If you're so in favor of duel controls, why exactly have you now challenged me?

Post 806

You acting as if you had not read the write up, when, to assert that a large portion of the "pevers" were already dead, you'd have to read the write up. Your making a statement that you could have paired with Post 781, it would have been obvious had you checked the alive or dead list, and your running over something you asserted earlier and should be obvious - the ninjas are working together.

This whole thing feels sloppy and/or scummy. Also, anyone having pad attention will notice the groupings by which hour the kills take place, so this was, essentially, a null point your trying to make - your being idle while looking helpful, just as you were with the dueling, just like the round when Stephen was under pressure.

Acting as if I hadn't read the write-up? Are you kidding me? I said I didn't have time to do a full kill analysis. Did you see how long my previous one was? Those things take time to figure out and write up, and I have a full time job. I was posting from work and was 40 minutes away from quitting time with a case to finish. I simply didn't have time to get it done, which is exactly what I said.

Apologies, but my job takes precedence over this game. When I have work to get done, I have to do it.

Post 817

First you state that Andres prioritizes them in such a way so that all night actions happen each night, which is technically impossible since in gaming terms mafia actions have a higher priority then non-mafia actions for ability resolution. But I digress - you quickly switch to the assertion that each is then order from top to bottom in chronological order. But if this is true, then that breaks the prioritization based on getting in all abilities - each hour set is dominated by one faction, not broken up so all act individually - there is to much consistency on how the kills are managed for it not to be a "Ninja's kill first, Traitors/SK's kill second".

Fine, you disagree with my opinion on how Andres figures out the night results and creates the write-ups. C'est la vie.

[Yoyoma1910]

Moon on the water,
Made dance by
Hurried rain.
The wind whispers not.
Vote:GeneralHankerchief

[Louis VI the Fat]

TinCow misspells 'c'est la vie'. Scummy. However, the lynch candidates YLC and TinCow do not set off my alarmbells. (By which I don't mean that I think they're innocent, or that I 'know' something, just that they don't set off my alarmbells yet)

FoS: Stephen Asen. Also, Dutch-Guy. And I am still not sure about Beskar. Either hyper-innocent or a clever mafia player.


CountArach has a good case on Shlin. Not a conclusive case. I know Shlin a bit, and he would claim a huge battlerating even when innocent.
Unlike me. Me, I'd never brag openly about the penetrating power of that huge katana dangling down from my waist, and the looks it generates from excited geishas.

Seeing as Shlin will get lynched anyway, I'll follow my FoS and
Vote: Stephen Asen


Food for thought:
If Shlin is ninja, then why were there not three (or four/ five) untrustworthy duel ratings sent in?

A) Did they not communicate about the Duel Rating reveal? That's unlikely.
B) Or, are the other ninjas testing the scale by having one of theirs send in a score, and waiting to see what happens first? This could mean the others are to be found on the list of non-PM'ers. Are they testing their luck first with Shlin?
C) Or, did the ninjas perhaps try to spread their changes? Each one sending in a score on a different scale, hoping to get it right? Like, one says: 'my rating is D', the other says 'my rating is 'veteran Samurai', the third says '78'?

If Shlin is guilty, it seems thus more likely that he is a traitor than ninja. Is the other traitor already dead, or did, again, the two traitors a) not communicate, b) test the result first, c) spread their chances?



Lots of interesting information is to be distilled from the information CA is sitting on:

a) The ninjas / traitors did not lie to CA. The battle ratings are all really close. So the mafia have no real duel advantage. With all the implications of that.
b) The ninjas / traitors did lie to CA. The battle ratings are all not close, but the mafia (minus Shlin?) knew exactly what samurai rating to send in. Did anybody share their rating with anybody? This would lead to mafia.
c) There's more too! CA is a clever man with statistics and I must leave it up to him, to work in secrecy. But you should've seen what CA managed to distill from his following countless polls during the US election! For example, already in October 2008 CA managed to predict a win for Obama!!

[Louis VI the Fat]

I apologise for the challenge - which cannot be taken back.

You know what they say, Chimpyang: a Samurai, a proud man of honour, does not for a challenge flee. When faced with adversity or possible death, honourable samurais rise up, draw swords, and face whatever may come!

I myself, however, couldn't care less about honour and shall remain hidden in a cupboard all night long...

Challenges, I think, are a waste of townies, so I shall not re-challenge to lower the chance of a duel between us. :grouphug:
To scare you off, and as a courtesy to CA, who asked for our battle ratings (PM to CA or publish them, those who haven't done so!): I am a veteran warrior with battle rating 'katana 8'.

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

Gregoshi - you are a geisha. Stop fiddling with your make-up and speak, lass. What happened last night? You 'restored order to the universe', got killed, and said you had failed?

Help us out here...

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

On another note, stop replacing people, Andres. WOG them. No one has a clue what sort of role they are and if you get them a Mafia-role for example, you are really working against the townies.

Good points. I wonder if Andres would not have considered this too. Which means that there is a fair chance the GOG'ed* players are innocent.

(Grace of God, as opposed to Wrath of God. That is, lurking players that are added midgame by the host instead of removed)

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

Admittedly i tried to lynch a dead guy but i made the effort to go out and make a half decent case

Grizzly and his lowly minion amuse me with their posts.

~-~-~-~-~-~<<((o))>>~-~-~-~-~-~

It took me two hours just to read up from yesterday. Whoa..

There must be useful information in the write-ups. But I can't spare the time now. Also, the Pevercide must have a cause, and should yield important clues. I can't figure it out yet. Must get back to it all later.

[Yoyoma1910]

Unlike me. Me, I'd never brag openly about the penetrating power of that huge katana dangling down from my waist, and the looks it generates from excited geishas.

Challenge: Louis VI The Fat

[TinCow]

TinCow misspells 'c'est la vie'.

[Yaropolk]

How to commit seppuku:

http://www.realultimatepower.net/ninja/seppuku.htm

That's the ninja way of committing seppuku!


I'll Vote: Schlin since CA requested it, however my FOS is on Stephen Asen and by association AggonyDuck

Why? Stephen as poster above mentioned had that strange duel challenge at the start of this round, and in addition when I went fishing for a reaction from AggonyDuck on the 2nd day, Stephen immediately jumped on me with a public message that Sassaki posted earlier and a private message as well (quoted below).

I doubt all the assassins have excellent fighting skills. We risk much if Ducky falls.

[CountArach]

Lots of interesting information is to be distilled from the information CA is sitting on:

a) The ninjas / traitors did not lie to CA. The battle ratings are all really close. So the mafia have no real duel advantage. With all the implications of that.
b) The ninjas / traitors did lie to CA. The battle ratings are all not close, but the mafia (minus Shlin?) knew exactly what samurai rating to send in. Did anybody share their rating with anybody? This would lead to mafia.
c) There's more too! CA is a clever man with statistics and I must leave it up to him, to work in secrecy. But you should've seen what CA managed to distill from his following countless polls during the US election! For example, already in October 2008 CA managed to predict a win for Obama!!

I'll do some more detailed analysis that I'll post up at my earliest possible convenience (Don't hold your breath though... it's midnight now...). However, what I really need is more numbers, so:

SEND IN YOUR DUEL RATINGS IF YOU HAVEN'T

[Reenk Roink]

Unvote: YLC
Vote: shlin28

Grizzly and his lowly minion amuse me with their posts.

The French "warrior" () seems most preoccupied with our master/slave relationship. This is the third or fourth time he has referenced it and his demeanor suggests worry...

I will ask Master for counsel on the matter, but I want to point it out to the other warriors. A man who cares so much about the doings of others has good potentiality of being a ninja...

[AggonyDuck]

I don't know how people have acquired the notion that I would have a high battle rating. I certainly wish my rating would be high, but truth be told, I propably have one of the lowest ones in this yashiki.

[Reenk Roink]

I don't know how people have acquired the notion that I would have a high battle rating. I certainly wish my rating would be high, but truth be told, I propably have one of the lowest ones in this yashiki.

From notes of Master on strength:

Strength is not found in battle rating, it is found in wisdom...

[FactionHeir]

Chances are the mafia groups each have a cover role (I mean if you are a ninja, and you can appear in full Samurai regalia and not set off alarmbells with any of your fellow Samurai...), so duel ratings are not going to be any useful.

Not sure what to make of shlin's duel score claim. But he will get WoGed or lynched either way so we'll find out.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

It reminds me of the settlement, where taka posted his "merchant" fake pm but had a duel score of 7.

Don't see the point of wog'ing someone for sending self-incriminating information...lol.

[Prince Cobra]

I am waiting for reply from ajaxfetish (my patience is not eternal, though) and then I will make a statement on the issue. This shall not happen later than 22:30 GMT + 2.

About the anti-Shlin vote. I am not that sure he is guilty. Personally, I think he did a blunder since he does not entirely trust his master (say he has low fighting skills and therefore he fears that in the first suspicion of Takeda he might be challenged and killed). Of course, this casts a great shame on his name and I will feel little sorry for his death. Yet, if we waste our time, 4 more people will die in vain. It also seems he did not have any idea of the rating of anybody in the game. Therefore, he might be not participant in team work (traitor/ninja).

So far I will not cast my vote.

[Kagemusha]

I am waiting for reply from ajaxfetish (my patience is not eternal, though) and then I will make final statement. This shall not happen later than 0:00 GMT + 2.

About the anti-Shlin vote. I am not that sure he is guilty. Personally, I think he did a blunder since he does not entirely trust his master (say he has low fighting skills and therefore he fears that in the first suspicion of Takeda he might be challenged and killed). Of course, this casts a great shame on his name and I will feel little sorry for his death. Yet, if we waste our time, 4 more people will die in vain. It also seems he did not have any idea of the rating of anybody in the game. Therefore, he might be not participant in team work (traitor/ninja).

So far I will not cast my vote.

May i ask what that reply would be about?

[Prince Cobra]

May i ask what that reply would be about?

As I said, I will make a statement on the issue.

[Kagemusha]

As I said, I will make a statement on the issue.

Interesting. Something which cant be openly discussed... Also Sasaki, old friend. Where did your dueling frenzy suddenly vanish?

[Prince Cobra]

Something which cant be openly discussed...

It will be, it will be... Patience is a virtue...

[_Tristan_]

Vote : Tincow

I ttruly think Chimpyang might be on to something with his "armor" analysis...

I also completely agree with FactionHeir' s Assessment of the repatition of the night kills... Though I can't see where it leads...