Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Vote: LittleGrizzly

Don't think I have forgotten about you and your attempt to stick me on the pever bandwagon!

Hos:Rhyfelwyr

"I don't know who got killed, a mafioso would know, therefore I can't be mafia!"

Suuuure

[GeneralHankerchief]

Unvote: Beefy
Vote: Sasaki

Now, I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that Sasaki's "translations" for reasoning is the closest thing to a mafia tell he has.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

You may indeed be wrong.

Reasoning: you are

[Beskar]

I say Sasaki is the Ninja master and Stephen Asen is the traitor. Gut-feelings.

[FactionHeir]

So who is Asen's scum buddy and who are Sasaki's pupils?

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I say Sasaki is the Ninja master and Stephen Asen is the traitor. Gut-feelings.

Kiyonaga looked at the silent man sitting in front of him.

"Kato Danzo-san, the Uesugi clan has an important task for you. As you are well aware, the constant battles between my Lord and Lord Takeda Shingen are exhausting our resources. The Tiger of Kai has been an obstacle on my masters' path to glory for many years now and it has to be removed."

The mysterious man nodded silently.

Kiyonaga continued: "Allthough an excellent general on the field of honor, the Tiger is pretty predictable when it comes to his habits during the Winter season. He will probably spend his time in his yashiki (mansion) in Kofu, only surrounded by his best men. Bring me his head and you will be rewarded generously."

Kato Danzo bowed. "So it will be, Kiyonaga-sama."

The ninja master left the tent without making a sound.

[Beefy187]

I think the Mafia killed Master and I because they thought we might have some kind of special role or something. Or perhaps it was just because we weren't drawing suspicion and would vote together.

The only problem is, the only one really vocal about it was Louis and he was whacked too. Now given that there are different factions, it doesn't exonerate the French warrior.

There were a few others who took note of the master/slave relationship but in a much less open way. Then there is the possibility that someone who said nothing about it is responsible.

Basically I got nothing...

[edit] I don't think it is Beefy at all. He is really busy with school and stuff and his Noble Sons game is time consuming too.

I'm busy only on Saturdays.
The last time I checked there wasn't much to go on with, as it was before the night kills so I decided not to say anything.

I will

Challenge: GH

and wait for Lord Shingen for his word before I go off to vote.

[TinCow]

Too intoxicated to bother with any actual analysis this evening, but attempts on both Reenk (successful) and Sasaki (unsuccessful) resonate with me. Those are major players to go after, not targets to be selected lightly. So, two questions appear to me, which I will think about tomorrow when I am sober:

(1) Why were Reenk and Sasaki targeted?
(2) Why was Sasaki protected?

[Gregoshi]

Observation: except for night 1, several of the killings involved feats of strength (crushed larnyx, broken bones). One kill each on nights 2 & 3 and possibly two on night 4. El Diablo showed tremendous strength in the duel. Might we have seen the end of a killer? Something to watch in the coming nights.

I don't think I see any correlation between the images preceeding the killings and who did them. I also don't see a correlation between the hour and who did them. Here's a listing of the kills shown as "hour - picture - type of kill"

Night 1
Rat - ninja pic - decapitation, limbs hacked (SK)
Rat - ninja pic - shurikan to back of neck
Ox - sword pic - stab to chest/slit throat

Night 2
Rat - ninja pic - punch to back of neck - broken
Rat - daggers pic (ninja?) - thrown knife to throat
Rat - sword pic - "warrior" decapitated victim with sword
Ox - ninja pic - larnyx broken, knife to eye (strength, gruesome but too "clean" for SK?)

Night 3
Rat - ninja pic - knife to throat & stab to heart, carved words on body
Rat - ninja pic - "ninja", knife to throat, 2nd unspecified stab, carved words on body
Rat - ninja pic - beaten, a blow broke arm, broken larnyx, cut off legs (SK)
Ox - sword pic - slit throat

Night 4
Rat - daggers pic (ninja?) - slit throat
Rat - ninja pic - "strong", strangled
Rat - kanabo? pic - violent beating, bashed brain, messy (SK)
Ox - sword pic - sword drawn, moved quick, but attack foiled

From what I could see, there is no pattern regarding style other than the SK (brutal and messy) - no signature strangling, throat slit, or thrown weapon preferences.

I hope this helps those with greater deductive powers than mine.

[Beskar]

Why was you saved, why damn you!!!111eleven

[AggonyDuck]

Andres, what exactly is the role of Shingen? Will we lose if he is assassinated, even if there are other samurai left? Can Shingen be targeted before everyone else is dead, provided that all three swordmasters are assumed dead? What happens if the ninja/traitors target Shingen before all the swordmasters are dead?

[naut]

Hey there. Vote: Caius.

[PershsNhpios]

Challenge: Rhyfelwyr

I challenge the one which I would truly vote for, but who will obtain no great number of nominations.

And I put my vote on: GeneralHankerchief.

Now really, I must go. I know, that seems suspicious, but look at my activity record of late.
Why is it so low?
Because I have much work about the place here, and I don't have time to sit and wait for the guild to load page after page of mafia games when each takes 3-5 minutes to present itself!
Ach! Och! The injustice!
That's all folks.

[LittleGrizzly]

Rhyf im not sure what you mean attempted to stick you on the pever bandwagon... im pretty sure you successfully joined it yourself

Feel free to suspect me but i am now dead and above suspicion, i shall serve my master in the afterlife as i have in this. The corwardly ninja who targetted me was too afraid that my loyal samurai would get his revenge during the day so took him out also... i think we have discovered one thing about the ninja tonight... they are cowards!

My loyal samurai you shall serve master in the afterlife just as well helping hunt down the ninjas and the traitors, you shall not let masters death go unpunished...

Someone is targetting the big players it seems... potentially a newbie going for name recognition or an experienced player attempting to remove the knowledgable players from the pool...

I think a good way to go would be maybe working from a list of unhelpful samurai who refuse to cooperate with our lord Takeda... such samurai should kill themselves in shame for not serving out lord better as it is... if they are too dishonourable to end ther own lives we should assist them to this end....

[Gregoshi]

i think we have discovered one thing about the ninja tonight... they are cowards!

They also have no clue how to tread a lady.

[Prince Cobra]

I say Sasaki is the Ninja master and Stephen Asen is the traitor. Gut-feelings.

Why do you want to kill me before the duel?

[Haudegen]

In addition to my earlier post (see posting no. 1012 in this thread and see below as well), where I was speculating about the possible meaning of Haikus, that were posted by some, I´d like to point out:

As far as I can see, Yoyoma1910 was the first player to post Haikus in this thread. But there i more: Yoyoma1910 has contributed nothing but Haikus. Haikus that hardly contain anything meaningful as far as I can tell. My gut feeling teels me that he uses this behaviour as an excuse to cover up the fact that he was required to post at least one Haiku by his role-pm.


Oh, and Yoyoma1910 wanted Louis dead, he voted for him and later he challenged Louis.


vote: Yoyoma1910

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

From my ealier post:

Stephen Asen seems scummy too. In the last day phase, Beskar´s bandwagon on Stephen didn´t really convince me. And it still makes little sense unless we make an assumption: Perhaps Stephen is required by his role-pm to post this Haiku in the game thread. Perhaps this was necessary to make his night action count... Perhaps he received a PM by the game host that reminded him of this and he just made it in time...

But this is just speculation on my part. I´d like to point out that my role-pm gives me no reasons to back up this assumption. In fact my role-pm has no night action, I´m just a samurai.

And let´s remember that scummy shlin´s intervention broke the tie and saved Stephen. As an experienced player he knew that this would make him look bad, but for some reason he seemed to be willing to pay this price. Hmm...

[AggonyDuck]

As far as I can see, Yoyoma1910 was the first player to post Haikus in this thread. But there i more: Yoyoma1910 has contributed nothing but Haikus. Haikus that hardly contain anything meaningful as far as I can tell. My gut feeling teels me that he uses this behaviour as an excuse to cover up the fact that he was required to post at least one Haiku by his role-pm.

How do you know that he was required to post atleast one Haiku in his role-pm?

[Beefy187]

In addition to my earlier post (see posting no. 1012 in this thread and see below as well), where I was speculating about the possible meaning of Haikus, that were posted by some, I´d like to point out:

As far as I can see, Yoyoma1910 was the first player to post Haikus in this thread. But there i more: Yoyoma1910 has contributed nothing but Haikus. Haikus that hardly contain anything meaningful as far as I can tell. My gut feeling teels me that he uses this behaviour as an excuse to cover up the fact that he was required to post at least one Haiku by his role-pm.


Oh, and Yoyoma1910 wanted Louis dead, he voted for him and later he challenged Louis.


vote: Yoyoma1910

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

From my ealier post:

Stephen Asen seems scummy too. In the last day phase, Beskar´s bandwagon on Stephen didn´t really convince me. And it still makes little sense unless we make an assumption: Perhaps Stephen is required by his role-pm to post this Haiku in the game thread. Perhaps this was necessary to make his night action count... Perhaps he received a PM by the game host that reminded him of this and he just made it in time...

But this is just speculation on my part. I´d like to point out that my role-pm gives me no reasons to back up this assumption. In fact my role-pm has no night action, I´m just a samurai.

And let´s remember that scummy shlin´s intervention broke the tie and saved Stephen. As an experienced player he knew that this would make him look bad, but for some reason he seemed to be willing to pay this price. Hmm...

There was loads more players who posted Haikus after Yoyoma. You don't suspect them at all?
If your going to highlight the fact that he has done no contributions, there is some players who posted nearly nothing. Posting haikus to avoid WoG sounds like a decent strategy for a mafia but...

I don't see how significant challenging Louis and voting for him etc is. Does Louis have a special role in the game?

[Andres]

Andres, what exactly is the role of Shingen? Will we lose if he is assassinated, even if there are other samurai left?

He is Lord Takeda. The game will continue if Shingen gets assassinated.

Can Shingen be targeted before everyone else is dead, provided that all three swordmasters are assumed dead? What happens if the ninja/traitors target Shingen before all the swordmasters are dead?

No comment

[Death is yonder]

I will be inactive soon. Need to quickly finish up Simpson Mafia and go study for finals in 2 weeks.

Haven't had time to catch up yet, just got back from classes.

Vote:Abstain until I can get through the massive wall of text...

By the way, why are you all voting Tosa and GH... Bandwagon much?
Quite possibly his "huh" statement was simply expressing confusion at a previously unknown ability, AKA Sasaki was saved. I would like that question answered too, why was Sasaki saved and by who?

[ULC]

Vote: TinCow
Challenge: TinCow

[FactionHeir]

Greg, you do realize that your analysis is identical to mine?

[Death is yonder]

Vote: TinCow
Challenge: TinCow

[Louis VI the Fat]

Ears deaf, sobs silent
Eyes blind, mourners go unseen
Tears loosed over death

~-~-~-~-~-~-~<>~-~-~-~-~-~-~


Dagger, plunge my heart
Death, cloak my mind in darkness
Soul, fly to my love

~-~-~-~-~-~-~<>~-~-~-~-~-~-~

Senryu, not Haiku
Lament my early demise
Samurai: fight, win

[Gregoshi]

Greg, you do realize that your analysis is identical to mine?

I didn't see your night 3 analysis (your night 3 is actually night 4), but there are similarities. Also, I was trying to confirm/debunk the kill hour and picture theories suggested earlier as well as looking consistencies from night to night.

What I don't get and don't buy yet is your insistence that the SK is a special role and neither ninja or traitor, unless your experience with the game tells you this.

[Kagemusha]

It seems that the situation is bit more then Chaotic after last night. We have questions raised after what happened during night, specially who was targeting Sasaki and why he was protected. Next we have a very strange comment from Tosainu. Stephen Asen challenging Beskar and YLC voting and challenging Tincow, without a single word why he does that. Very confusing. I might have to think a bit before voting.

[Haudegen]

How do you know that he was required to post atleast one Haiku in his role-pm?

I don´t. I´m just trying to propose a hypothesis.

There was loads more players who posted Haikus after Yoyoma. You don't suspect them at all?

No, I think many joined the Haiku-Band just for the fun of it.



Well, but it seems that noone really thinks that my ideas concerning the Haikus are any good, so I´ll stop thinking about that. My vote on yoyoma stands though, maybe that´ll make him contribute something better.

[Prince Cobra]

Observation: except for night 1, several of the killings involved feats of strength (crushed larnyx, broken bones). One kill each on nights 2 & 3 and possibly two on night 4. El Diablo showed tremendous strength in the duel. Might we have seen the end of a killer? Something to watch in the coming nights.

I don't think I see any correlation between the images preceeding the killings and who did them. I also don't see a correlation between the hour and who did them. Here's a listing of the kills shown as "hour - picture - type of kill"

Night 1
Rat - ninja pic - decapitation, limbs hacked (SK)
Rat - ninja pic - shurikan to back of neck
Ox - sword pic - stab to chest/slit throat

Night 2
Rat - ninja pic - punch to back of neck - broken
Rat - daggers pic (ninja?) - thrown knife to throat
Rat - sword pic - "warrior" decapitated victim with sword
Ox - ninja pic - larnyx broken, knife to eye (strength, gruesome but too "clean" for SK?)

Night 3
Rat - ninja pic - knife to throat & stab to heart, carved words on body
Rat - ninja pic - "ninja", knife to throat, 2nd unspecified stab, carved words on body
Rat - ninja pic - beaten, a blow broke arm, broken larnyx, cut off legs (SK)
Ox - sword pic - slit throat

Night 4
Rat - daggers pic (ninja?) - slit throat
Rat - ninja pic - "strong", strangled
Rat - kanabo? pic - violent beating, bashed brain, messy (SK)
Ox - sword pic - sword drawn, moved quick, but attack foiled

From what I could see, there is no pattern regarding style other than the SK (brutal and messy) - no signature strangling, throat slit, or thrown weapon preferences.

I hope this helps those with greater deductive powers than mine.

I think the psycho killer has the least experience (he can not control his anger). I also think that the master ninja (if he has killed any but maybe he did) does his work very very clean.

I'll go to read some wisdoms of old men but if an idea comes into my mind, I will share it with you.

----
I agree with Kagemusha-san. I think we have to explain our motives for the decision however vague these could be.

[TinCow]

Voting Sasaki is a bad idea, IMO. The ninjas last night went for high-profile targets, with Little Grizzly and Reenk for sure. While both Louis and Sasaki have been involved in regular discussions, Sasaki has been higher profile and Louis' death looks a lot more like the killer everyone is calling the serial killer. If we notch up the hit on Sasaki as the third ninja attack, we have LG, Reenk, and Sasaki as last night's ninja targets (which would also make Sasaki not a ninja, and thus a bad lynch choice). That group is not a coincidence; the ninjas are now playing with us with their kill choices. On N3 the pever triumvirate, on N4 an entire group of high-profile players. This indicates a well-coordinated group who are paying a lot of attention to the forums. For the ninjas, I believe we can discount people who are not checking the forums a lot. It may be worthwhile to focus on people who are active on the forums, but are lurking or otherwise posting in an entirely neutral manner in this thread.

I also think we are falling into a few bad habits on assumptions about the situation. First, the Rabbit/Ox hour connections to whether the kills are performed by ninjas/traitors. That theory seems to have more and more holes in it as time goes by. It is possible that the hours indicated in the write-up are (1) designed to indicate the order in which the kills occur, as I stated before, or (2) entirely random. We should not lock ourselves into a single view on what the hours mean, because doing so has a strong risk of obscuring the true situation.

Second, the repeated references to the 'serial killer.' There is no basis for this assumption at all. If all of those kills are the independent role, then the traitors are pretty much not killing anyone. This is highly unlikely. Just because murders are bloody/messy does not mean they cannot be done by a traitor.

Vote: Rhyfelwyr

(1) Active enough to get in a vote every day phase, but has contributed pretty much nothing of use to the town.
(2) Was a 'pever' and went after LG for voting for a pever survivor of the pever massacre. It would be a reasonable strategy for a pever to think he would look innocent if he killed a large number of the others off.
(3) Voted for LG after LG was dead. This indicates that he's not paying attention to the thread and probably didn't even read the kill write-up. Why is he so active in voting if he's not actually paying attention to the game?