Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[atheotes]

Not really. Sasaki's reveal was clearly fake and was an attempt to pull an attack away from CA. It failed, but was a valiant effort.

If Sasaki was not Takeda Shingen... why would he be surprised by the identity of the assasin?
Also he is mentioned as "samurai known as Hamano Michiyo" - so it is not his real name... he could be a traitor...that would align with your line of thinking... but the question remains on why he would be surprised by the identity of the assasin....


to be honest i do think Sasaki's reveal was a fake and the real Shingen is still alive...

[ajaxfetish]

To Sasaki or CountArach:

Whom do you recommend I challenge?

and for now, vote: Seamus

Ajax

[Quintus.JC]

Ignoring Sasaki's identity for a minute, CountArach clearly wasn't the real Shingen.

[Beskar]

Sasaki was a fake, but people seem to ignore the obvious, even when I tell them. I am the Cassandra of Troy.

[Yaropolk]

Rhyfelwyr - sorry I've been trying to lynch you for 3 days due to not sending in rating, nothing personal.

In light of the fact that CA was likely not a pro town role, my FOS Rhyfelwyr still stands. He was the only one who was saved from a duel by a night killing.

[woad&fangs]

vote: Rhyfelwyr
challenge Rhyfelwyr

I think factionheir is another good one to go after today.

[Gregoshi]

I am the Cassandra of Troy.

No you're not.

[shlin28]

I suppose it would be the ultimate twist if the guy we were suppose to protect is in fact the bad guy... seems like the trend in the Gameroom nowadays.

Perhaps that's why he got me lynched for my high duel score?

I'm not too sure on the FH thing, he normally is pretty neutral too. Analytical but not so accusative is how I would describe his playstyle.

Quintus' behaviour is off a bit though - too few posts in comparison with other games, I suppose it could be because of exams, but you never know...

I will post more of my thoughts tomorrow.

PS: Just caught up on the thread

[Gregoshi]

vote: Rhyfelwyr
challenge Rhyfelwyr

I think factionheir is another good one to go after today.

How about we focus challenges on one FoS and lynch another. Since Rhyfelwyr has already been challenged, let's leave that as the sole challenge. His name has been tossed around enough - unless someone comes up with a better target, then we can put up three challenges on an alternate if need arises to increase the odds.

Regardless, we need to focus our efforts and hopefully strike true with them. We are running out of townies.

[FactionHeir]

3 kills tonight, and it seems that the SK as I dubbed him actually seems to be a ninja. 2 ninja, 1 traitor kill means that either QJC was a ninja or we are still being fooled. Going back to the bird imagery and the writeup, I'm slated to think that we actually did get one.

One one thing of note are the muskets. It seems odd that these are suddenly used, and that we suddenly got 2 traitors doing the work at once. Maybe they needed both to combine to kill Sasaki as they failed on the first attempt? This would mean that the other traitor initially was doing something else all along - protecting or investigating.

Second bit of interest is that Beskar got the kills correct. And in the right order. Now, he's been called innocent by BG, but as GH and TC suggest, its possible that the ninja master is immune to investigations. Still, it could be pure coincidence, as that was the rather obvious sequence of kills anyway in retrospect, unlike the pever massacre.
Nevertheless, it seems to strongly hint at some sort of cooperation between these two groups - or maybe the traitors knew that since ninjas have 2 kills, they'll off the bodyguard and CA?

Now as for the accusation towards me, that is more or less my playstyle in default mafia games, and I don't intend on challenging considering that I'll most likely lose anyway, meaning 1 less vote. Also would be rather poor play of me to pull the town away from lynching Seamus only for him to vote me

Suspects...currently I'm tending towards Beskar or Rhyfelwyr. Note that we still have at least 4 scum alive though, of which 2 are traitors. Also, we only have 16 left alive, so 25% of the living are scum.

[TinCow]

3 kills tonight, and it seems that the SK as I dubbed him actually seems to be a ninja. 2 ninja, 1 traitor kill means that either QJC was a ninja or we are still being fooled. Going back to the bird imagery and the writeup, I'm slated to think that we actually did get one.

Why do you think one of the kills was a traitor?

[FactionHeir]

Why else would Sasaki be overly surprised at who his killer was? Besides, he was referred to as the older samurai, meaning by implication that his target was younger and a samurai as well.

[TinCow]

Why else would Sasaki be overly surprised at who his killer was? Besides, he was referred to as the older samurai, meaning by implication that his target was younger and a samurai as well.

How does knowing the killer or age correlate to being a traitor? We know now that the mafia all have cover role PMs, which means they are all masquerading as samurai.

[FactionHeir]

Is this a lawyery inquisition? Where's my legal counsel?

Several things point towards traitors:
Kill was not during Hour of the Rat (though this time it was hour of the Tiger, rather than Rabbit - irony perhaps?)
Traitors are known to be long serving members of the Takeda army, only with secret loyalties, while ninjas are infiltrators and unlikely to be as well known to their comrades.
Traitors are actual samurai.
Ninja already carried out their 2 remaining kills that night.

Care to explain why you think it was not a traitor kill?

[Beskar]

You really thought you got a mafia-role last night? I didn't.

Based on the fact only three remind (two of the ninja got killed) there are three choices to kill, the mafia knew they could take out the body guard, and because all 3 are dead, then Count Arch, and to be on the safe side the last one will obviously be Sasaki.

It was two ninja kills and one traitor kill. Yes, Sasaki was killed by the traitor.

Also, BG really was a pro-town role. For people who keep targeting people on the list need to reattach your heads, especially some of the dead players who keep trying to suggest people go after them.

[TinCow]

Ninja already carried out their 2 remaining kills that night.

Ninjas get 3 kills per night. The way the rules are written, it appears they get 3 kills no matter how many of them are left alive.

Care to explain why you think it was not a traitor kill?

They hit the trio of Gobble, CA, and Sasaki. That is a coordinated attack, just like with saw with the Night of the Pevers. If you think that it's a combo set of kills between ninja and traitors, then you are basically saying that the ninjas and traitors are communicating and working together.

[Beskar]

Innocent:
Beskar
Generalhankerchief
Seamus Fermanagh
Stephen Asen

Possible Mafia:
FactionHeir
Caius
Ichigo
Wishazu
White_Eyes:D
Rhyfelwyr
Kagemusha
Chimpyang
Yoyoma1910
woad&fangs
ajaxfetish
Dutch_guy

Here, this makes it more simple for you, don't go after any in the innocent list. Now you look at the ones in the other list. From observation, all the cover roles mentioned are veteran samurai. Rhywer as we know, is a veteran samurai, so in all possibilities, he could be one.

Problem is, with the list remaining, the people on the innocent list are the ones getting killed while the other list isn't getting much shorter.

[TinCow]

I need to revise my previous statements about Sasaki. Rereading the night kill, I now believe he was telling the truth. Sasaki's death write-up is intentionally vague about his identity, which is Andres' usual signal that there are clues in the write-up. Sasaki is described as "hear[ing a] commotion outside his room" and "he charged outside and saw that the samurai who was supposed to be standing guard was missing." This appears to be a reference to Gobble's death, in which gobble was noted to be "standing guard at the campfire outside his master’s tent." This would make Sasaki his master, which would also mean Sasaki was Takeda Shingen.

I'm not convinced CA was a traitor. While his name was Nobushige, and that name is mentioned as the traitor's "heir," the intro post letter specifically names the traitors as Nakayima and Watanabe, and the rules say there are only 2 traitors. In addition, the letter says that Nobushige is "misguided" which implies that he is not in agreement with his father.

Thus, it seems likely that Sasaki's reveal was accurate, with a slim chance that CA was somehow related to the traitors, but even if that was so he was not one of the traitor killers himself.

This also explains...

Kill was not during Hour of the Rat (though this time it was hour of the Tiger, rather than Rabbit - irony perhaps?)

Takeda Shingen is repeatedly referred to as the "Tiger of Kai" in the intro post. Sasaki's death during the Hour of the Tiger is a reference to this. It has to do with Sasaki's identity, not the identity of his killers. On this basis, it may be that the different hours we have seen refer to our general roles. I suspect that if we go back, we'll find that one of the commonly used hours corresponds to regular samurai deaths and one corresponds to veteran samurai deaths.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Okay, here are my thoughts:

Right now, the town looks like it's in serious trouble. We could go over the massive list, try to pick off the grunts... and wait as the ninja master silently picks us off one by one. I have my doubts about the usefulness of Banquo's list (not the honesty of Banquo's claim, you understand). I am almost certain that out of the four of us on the "innocent" list, one of us is in fact guilty, possibly even the ninja master.

I say go straight for the source.

Vote: Seamus

Ducky, what does your gut say?

[FactionHeir]

Ninjas get 3 kills per night. The way the rules are written, it appears they get 3 kills no matter how many of them are left alive.

They hit the trio of Gobble, CA, and Sasaki. That is a coordinated attack, just like with saw with the Night of the Pevers. If you think that it's a combo set of kills between ninja and traitors, then you are basically saying that the ninjas and traitors are communicating and working together.

Except that we had 4 kills a night previously and since QJC's early demise we had 3 a night.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Except that we had 4 kills a night previously and since QJC's early demise we had 3 a night.

This proves nothing, unfortunately.

[Gregoshi]

They hit the trio of Gobble, CA, and Sasaki. That is a coordinated attack...

Yes it seems so but I'm still confused because:

1) The traitor's chosen successor was killed last night, which speaks against cooperation.

2) Sasaki was attacked by TWO assassins. The numbers (4 attackers) speaks to cooperation.

Anyone care to speculate on the meaning of the "magic dust" (my term) that the ninja master sprinkled on the food? That was a very odd scene.

Another thought, since Andres appears to incorporate game play into the writeup, could the fact that Sasaki was surprised when he unmasked one of his assailants indicate that it was someone not on his suspect list?

[FactionHeir]

As I said, its possible that it proves nothing (if the mafia decided to go along with sending 1 kill less), but chances are that it is true.

I'm not sure regarding your point that the ninja master shows as innocent still. Yes, I tfound Beskar's statement a bit strange, but his explanation and my own reasoning of it make sense. Also, BG only investigated a few. For all we know, the master can be among the other 12 non investigated 66% of whom (+ a bit if the master is innocent) will also show as innocent.

[woad&fangs]

Can we stop focusing on the ninja master? We're still experiencing 3 deaths per night. I think it is more important to take out the grunts.

Hmm, I didn't realize rhyf already had a challenge on him. I wish I had used my challenge more effectively now...

[TinCow]

Yes it seems so but I'm still confused because:

1) The traitor's chosen successor was killed last night, which speaks against cooperation.

2) Sasaki was attacked by TWO assassins. The numbers (4 attackers) speaks to cooperation.

Anyone care to speculate on the meaning of the "magic dust" (my term) that the ninja master sprinkled on the food? That was a very odd scene.

Another thought, since Andres appears to incorporate game play into the writeup, could the fact that Sasaki was surprised when he unmasked one of his assailants indicate that it was someone not on his suspect list?

Sorry, I added to my post without realizing that others had posted since then. If you check my late edit, you'll see that Sasaki confronted Gobble's killer. That's the first person he meets and fights. The second person that shows up is an independent target on Sasaki. Thus, there are only 3 killers active last night. CA's killer, Sasaki's second man, and Gobble's killer who shows up twice.

[Wishazu]

Well I`m totally lost and confused

I`m gonna jump on the bandwagon for this one and Vote Seamus

And for a laugh Challenge Beskar He just seems very dodgy...

[FactionHeir]

Yet both CA and Sasaki's deaths refer to them being in their room while Gobble was standing outside a tent. Also, The samurai in the morning found a bodyguard with his master and then another samurai. So that seems to go against your hypothesis TC.

Going back over QJC's posts, he was first unsure about Beskar but as pressure mounted, he called him innocent. I'm wondering if that's of any use. It will definitely be a good idea to re-examine his posts as we know he's mafia to see who we can rule out as mafia.

If I had to pick who I think are most likely mafia of the remaining 16, I'd pick Beskar, woad, Kage and Rhyfelwyr, though I'm also a bit unsure about ajax - same uncertainty as with Beskar.

While I've been jumping on Chimpyang early on, his activity pattern suggests he's innocent.

[Caius]

If GF can appear as a townie, then it is Beskar. He must die, period.
Vote:Beskar
Challenge:Beskar

[TinCow]

Yet both CA and Sasaki's deaths refer to them being in their room while Gobble was standing outside a tent. Also, The samurai in the morning found a bodyguard with his master and then another samurai. So that seems to go against your hypothesis TC.

Sasaki "charged outside and saw that the samurai who was supposed to be standing guard was missing."

You think that's a coincidence? Sasaki going outside of his room and finding a missing guard on the same night that the last guard, who was standing outside his master's tent, is killed?

[AggonyDuck]

I'd recommend that you do not vote for Beskar or Seamus, as both are on the innocent list. Leave the innocents for the ninjas/traitors and concentrate on the unknowns. Also you really need to start pressuring the semi-lurkers like Kage, Rhyf and Caius, who post semi-helpful posts every now and then, but try to remain inconspicuous.