Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[woad&fangs]

Kukri, are you sure we have to lynch a ninja today to win? I really really want to vote Beskar out. My vote is going to stay on Dutch Guy unless someone has a really good argument for someone else. DG has a mere 15 posts in a game with over 2000. I know that there are other quiet players but none of DGs posts seem to be very analytical. I do wish that Kage would appear and add something to the conversation though. His insight would be greatly appreciated at this time.

[Gregoshi]

and ensure the Ninja and Traitor win by killing an innocent? Smart move.

Beskar, in nearly every post you make, you remind us how innocent you are. Even before BQ's reveal, you were doing so and seemed amazed that anyone would think otherwise simply on your word. Although you are on the innocent list, your constant screaming about your innocence is making me wonder if BQ was somehow duped. Beware he who screams the loudest and pointing his finger elsewhere. I dunno, I'm just sayin'.

Regarding Ichigo, how have you been on his tail? Aside from him voting for you, why else do you say he's a baddy? He and Stephen/Tiberius seemed to do a tag team on you. Early on Stephen was after you. On day 5 both Stephen and Ichigo voted for you and after BQ's reveal, Stephen left you go, but Ichigo stayed on you with his voting. What else do you have on Ichigo?

We are down to the point in the game where we cannot afford any more misses, so I think it behooves all of us with suspicions to state our cases completely. Gut feelings aren't enough anymore especially since our guts don't appear to be in agreement (and haven't worked either).

[Gregoshi]

His insight would be greatly appreciated at this time.

Since it appears that all the pro-townie roles (known) have been killed off, I don't see how the laying-low tactic is valid anymore. All true townies should be activitely participating at this point in the game. We are on the verge of extinction with the only consolation prize being that Uesugi Kenshin will be getting a sword up his keister whilst sitting on his "throne" some years down the road.

Well, that's the opinion of this mafia noobie anyway.

[Gregoshi]

I think it's possible that the ninjas killed a traitor tonight as one of the traitors was named Watanabe.

He'd be the third Watanabe to die I think (Yoyoma post). How many Watanabes could there be? It would be nice to think that one of them was the traitor, but it is hard to confirm.

[Beskar]

Beware he who screams the loudest and pointing his finger elsewhere. I dunno, I'm just sayin'.

Or it could be the case that people kep voting for me, regardless of the vast evidence that I am innocent and regardless, they continue suggesting I am not. Then we get to the end of the game, Andres will say that I was indeed innocent, then it is "Well, I kept telling you, but no.. you didn't listen" moment. Every round some one has voted for me or suggested it is me, twice there have been bandwagons. Not my fault people are being ignorant of facts.

Regarding Ichigo, how have you been on his tail? Aside from him voting for you, why else do you say he's a baddy? He and Stephen/Tiberius seemed to do a tag team on you. Early on Stephen was after you. On day 5 both Stephen and Ichigo voted for you and after BQ's reveal, Stephen left you go, but Ichigo stayed on you with his voting. What else do you have on Ichigo?

Many reasons, Stephen Asen was just a revenge vote, and when he was certain I was innocent, he decided to drop it. That is simply explained. Ichigo who was active in the beginning went lurking and all his posts have either been to misdirect the town and all his votes were against known innocents. Many circumstances and there is absolutely no shred of evidence that he is innocent in any shape or form.

[KukriKhan]

Kukri, are you sure we have to lynch a ninja today to win? I really really want to vote Beskar out. My vote is going to stay on Dutch Guy unless someone has a really good argument for someone else. DG has a mere 15 posts in a game with over 2000. I know that there are other quiet players but none of DGs posts seem to be very analytical. I do wish that Kage would appear and add something to the conversation though. His insight would be greatly appreciated at this time.

Yes, I am certain. Though I certainly understand your annoyance with Baskar-san and his perpetual proclmation of innocence, and degrading opinions of his fellow players.

I quote Gregoshi's recent post:

Since it appears that all the pro-townie roles (known) have been killed off, I don't see how the laying-low tactic is valid anymore. All true townies should be activitely participating at this point in the game. We are on the verge of extinction

to cite my wholehearted agreement: we gotta get us a ninja or traitor this day phase, and the next, or roll over and cede victory to the dark forces. So that, if for no other reason, they don't cackle in glee over their victory.

I can't wait for the host's summary and analysis, and the reveal of the "other" board, used by the bad guys - just to see how "off" or "on" we have been.

Kill the lurkers.

Or die.

[Beskar]

Then there is the whole argument you was a mafia-role, Kukrikhan and misleading us from some one who is in fact active mafia-role and target an innocent quiet person.

It was especially noticeable that the Ninja roles were confirmed to drop by two when Quintus and you got killed off.

Just saying.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I believe we're beyond the point of killing lurkers. We need to kill bad guys, regardless of how (in)active they may be. Now, my vote is on Rhyfelwyr because I believe him to be a ninja. The fact that he is the last of the pevers don't necessarily jive with me, and I don't quite like how he's pretty much slid by these past couple of days without any suspicion or contribution.

I would also like to hear from Kage as well, as this is usually the point where he steps up and leads his side, whichever it may be, to victory. Alas, I can only vote for one person at a time however, and thus I'm sticking with Rhyfelwyr.

[KukriKhan]

Then there is the whole argument you was a mafia-role, Kukrikhan and misleading us from some one who is in fact active mafia-role and target an innocent quiet person.

It was especially noticeable that the Ninja roles were confirmed to drop by two when Quintus and you got killed off.

Just saying.

Yes, I can see how the Detective BG's less-than-innocent result on me marked me as a potential bad guy. To this day, I don't know why that result occured. Hopefully, the Host's aftergame writeup will reveal that reason. So, I didn't mind the resulting suspicion and votes.

But, I got killed by bad guys in a night phase, not lynched like Q in a day phase.

And I never voted or challenged you - though in retrospect, maybe I should have. Not that it would have quieted you down; nothing seems to have that particular effect. You have proclaimed your innocence far and wide, repeatedly ad nausium, and I must applaud your level of participation, while also noting your continual disparging of any voter having doubts about your lily-white reputation.

If I were alive, I would challenge you this day.

However, I digress. Kill the lurkers.

[Beskar]

Well, I let you into a secret. Don't hurt the lily and there won't be any disparging.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Now that I am dead, I feel wonderfully relaxed.


We don't have ANY useful information with which to pick lynch targets. The only, and very limited, exception in GBG's innocent list. Most of the ones on this list have been prime targets for the various murderers.

We still have two killing factions -- with the ninja numbers unknown.

It is getting too late to kill lurkers to kill lurkers -- GH is correct about that. But you have no reliable information to base your assessments on. Nor do you have time to force the lurkerish ones:

Kage, Dutch, Ichigo, ajax....have lurked and are successful with that strategy. EDIT: well, to be fair Ichi hasn't lurked. I'm used to him doing so pretty much every game, but here he has not. Kage has only two more posts than I, despite me lurking for more than half the game. I also have seven more posts than ajax and Dutch combined! Also, when was the last time you saw Ducky post 74 times! I cannot recall any game where that happened. ah well....


What we should NOT do is vote small.

We have at least two groups of killers and as many as 5 are bad guys. WHOMEVER you pick, ALL votes must settle on that choice so that it cannot be derailed by final switches.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Unvote: Rhyfelwyr
Vote: Dutch_guy

I think I'm getting paranoid. Upon second thought, Dutch's behavior is reminding me all too well of when he was mafia in Mafia VI. Bare minimum of activity, almost zero suspicion throughout the game... this is pretty scary. And it's making me go slowly crazy. We usually have something to work with here.

[ajaxfetish]

Kage, Dutch, Ichigo, ajax....have lurked and are successful with that strategy. EDIT: well, to be fair Ichi hasn't lurked. I'm used to him doing so pretty much every game, but here he has not. Kage has only two more posts than I, despite me lurking for more than half the game. I also have seven more posts than ajax and Dutch combined!

What we should NOT do is vote small.

We have at least two groups of killers and as many as 5 are bad guys. WHOMEVER you pick, ALL votes must settle on that choice so that it cannot be derailed by final switches.

Mainly I just wish I had something to say. I've had virtually no idea who to suspect throughout the game. I'm astonished that I've lived so long, and frustrated that I still haven't a good notion how to contribute to a town victory.

Anyway, in the interests of 'not voting small,' it looks like Dutch Guy has the most votes, and I've no reason to suspect anyone else more than him, so

vote: Dutch Guy

And since I don't really trust his vote record, and I haven't got to use my challenge ability yet,

challenge: Ichigo

Ajax

[Gregoshi]

Mainly I just wish I had something to say. I've had virtually no idea who to suspect throughout the game.

Ditto, but by tossing out ideas or oddities I note, I hope to trigger a thought process in someone else who hopefully can make something happen.

Just noticed your custom title - "Paladin Wan(ta)nabe"...

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Dutch guy is acting normal, which makes GH suspicious I guess. Though there isn't much to go on this game. Beskar should still be lynched just because.

[Dutch_guy]

I can't defend myself against a bandwagon, as that's what this is. I'm never that active, and usually at one point pay the price for it - smart move on part of the mafia if that's why they kept me alive: they earn a free lynch.

My death will not help the town win this, that's all I know, but perhaps Beskar's will:

Vote: Beskar.

[AggonyDuck]

I'd recommend lynching Rhyfelwyr.

[Beskar]

Beskar should still be lynched just because.

Well, if you are going to play it that way. Let's see you fight back now.

*Gets a red hot poker and goes to where the Corpse of Sasaki Kojiro is laying*

Now then... which part of your body are you willing to have missing for the afterlife?

My death will not help the town win this, that's all I know, but perhaps Beskar's will:

Vote: Beskar.

Yeah, because lynching a known innocent will actually help the town, obviously.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Well, if you are going to play it that way. Let's see you fight back now.

*Gets a red hot poker and goes to where the Corpse of Sasaki Kojiro is laying*

Now then... which part of your body are you willing to have missing for the afterlife?

You just admitted to being guilty.

[Beskar]

No, I just threatened a ghost who keeps speaking on lynching some one "for the lulz"/"just because" with removing body parts from their corpse to deprive them in the afterlife.

A confession of any form of guilt would have been "I enjoyed ridding you of your miserable life", unfortunately, I don't have such a pleasure.

[Gregoshi]

You just admitted to being guilty.

Yeah, he needs to work on his poker face.

[Gregoshi]

Just stating your vote without reason isn't helping the cause. We need to focus on a smartly selected target.

As for cases, assuming Beskar reported accurately, ajaxfetish's observed activities early in the game, while telling, did not carry much weight because he could have had a pro-town role. However, now that all the (known) pro-town roles are dead, his activities seem to hang a "bad guy" sign around his neck.

While Rhyfelwyr has the rap of being the last standing pever, there were four pevers but the ninjas got only three kills. This left Rhyfelwyr in a bad spot, it seems unlikely he's a baddie.

Dutch_guy's inactivity and spotty voting record early on sends a FoS his way, but I think ajaxfetish has a stronger case.

Forget Beskar, he says he's innocent. That's good enough for me.

Therefore, I suggest ajaxfetish for lynching but D_g is a good alternative.

[Beskar]

Hard to explain as there is a really strong gut feeling I had since a while ago for Ichigo. I had suspicions since early on and I wanted BG to investigate him for me, however, BQ didn't live that night. However, look at Ichigo's case, there is nothing that even suggests a town-role, any form of aid, advice or logic. He has repeatedly voted on bandwagons or against innocents. Hell, he has never actually denied being a mafia-role either when accused.

Even then, there is as you said:

Something that stands out from Duck's analysis, is Ichigo voting for Beskar almost every night since BQ put Beskar in the innocent list.

[FactionHeir]

woad is screaming guilt at me. Completely avoids "plays cool" any accusation by talking about something completely unrelated as if nothing else was ever said.

[Husar]

My analysis says 90% chance the town will lose this.

The thing about Beskar is this, if he is the ninja master and turned up innocent, but is the only remaining person of BG's innocent list who is still alive, then wouldn't he have framed himself by killing off all the other suspects? Ultimately this ends up as a mafia in front of you as everything else does but at the moment I tend towards letting him live and killing dutch_guy, Ichigo, Kage.

[Kagemusha]

Have you guys gone utterly mad? This very well might be our final round when we have even slightest chance to still win the mafia and people start randomly challenging people like this. Are you guys in hurry to loose to the mafia?

1st point is that the only thing we can base anything is Banguos list and people voting others from that list are either acting like buffoons or they are scum. Also Yoyoma1910 now suddenly starts challenging people with nonsensical reasoning. Have you run out of poems or could you be in bit of a hurry to ensure mafia victory? If there is anyone scummy among the people left its him. Vote: Yoyoma1910

[TinCow]

Playing with the Wishazu numbers trying to find meaning and looking at the list of those left alive:

18 = 1+8 = 9 = woad&fangs 9th on the list
22 = 2+2 = 4 = Rhyfelwyr 4th on the list
25 = 2+5 = 7 = Chimpyang 7th on the list

I started playing around with those numbers as well when I saw them, but was applying them to (1) the list of dead players and (2) the raw list of starting players. I came up with nothing useful.

Using those same numbers (18, 22, 25) as a straight substitution cipher results in:
18 = R
22 = V
25 = Y

RVY is not the same as RHY(felwyr), but it is surprisingly close.

[Yaropolk]

Sasaki, why are you so focused on lynching Beskar?

[KukriKhan]

I started playing around with those numbers as well when I saw them, but was applying them to (1) the list of dead players and (2) the raw list of starting players. I came up with nothing useful.

Using those same numbers (18, 22, 25) as a straight substitution cipher results in:
18 = R
22 = V
25 = Y

RVY is not the same as RHY(felwyr), but it is surprisingly close.

I just took the sequence as the killer noting the mounting number of kills, night-to-night. But I admit, I wondered if they (the numbers) referred to players, too.

[Gregoshi]

I started playing around with those numbers as well when I saw them, but was applying them to (1) the list of dead players and (2) the raw list of starting players...

I did the same. The addition track was the only thing that yielded results that made complete sense. I was getting excited with the "R-V-Y" thing until I couldn't go anywhere else with it.

The numbers are too unusual to not have significant (why not 10, 20, 30?). But I'll be darned if I can pull any meaning out of it. It was worth a shot.