A Problem of Shrinkage

[CountArach]

What does the fact that a Conservative candidate polled over 45% against the democrat's 49% tell you about that race? Wikipedia doesn't even have Hoffman's picture up.

The district is rated Republican +1 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index and in a race where the Republican had pulled out of his run then that tells you that the Democratic base isn't quite as disillusioned as some have claimed. In an odd-year election where a party is largely in control this is quite a rarity.

Still, people shouldn't read too much into it - but I'm just saying, there are conclusions in there.

Results from 2009 election night here... Maine has narrowly rejected gay marriage (Despite polls showing the opposite - Conservatives are more fired-up this season whilst Democrats remain complacent) and a law granting domestic partnership equality to gay spouses in Washington is close.

[ICantSpellDawg]

The district is rated Republican +1 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index and in a race where the Republican had pulled out of his run then that tells you that the Democratic base isn't quite as disillusioned as some have claimed. In an odd-year election where a party is largely in control this is quite a rarity.

Still, people shouldn't read too much into it - but I'm just saying, there are conclusions in there.

Results from 2009 election night here... Maine has narrowly rejected gay marriage (Despite polls showing the opposite - Conservatives are more fired-up this season whilst Democrats remain complacent) and a law granting domestic partnership equality to gay spouses in Washington is close.

Republicans won the Governorship of New Jersey. That's New Jersey, right next to New York. That's with Pro-Life views and being a supporter of George Bush for 8 years.

If you don't see the hint of rebuke, I don't know what to tell you.

People are pissed now, if the system hits any more major bumps any time soon, the mid-term elections will be interesting. Partisan Conservatives were out in force this election and I didn't even vote, I'm moderate enough to give it some time. Moderates won't look so kindly on the administration or the Congress unless there is a major turn around before the mid-terms.

Decreasingly massive unemployment numbers arn't enough of a sign for some people, I know, crazy right?

I'm just happy to see Republicans pick up Governor spots. That's where we draft Presidents. Even if this election season wasn't a rebuke of the Dems, ever hear of the adage "fake it til ya make it"? Maybe it's a rebuke of the dems now, even when it wasn't before.

People have an interesting reaction when they've missed what they percieve as the bandwagon. Most of cultural movement comes from insistence by media and popular culture, the rest comes from the actual impact of policies and good ideas... at a margin of 10:1

[drone]

The GOP took the Dems back behind the woodshed here in Virginia. Governor, Lt. Gov, Attorney General, and at least 5 more state delegates to cement their majority. A lot of papers are saying that this really means nothing for next year's national mid-term elections, but the Dems better get on the ball if they want to continue to enjoy their majority.

I'm just happy to see Republicans pick up Governor spots. That's where we draft Presidents.

Not the new VA gov, he's unelectable on the national stage.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Not the new VA gov, he's unelectable on the national stage.

Why is that? I'm pretty sure you could have said the same thing about GWB. Things change when you are the Governor of a State.

[drone]

Why is that? I'm pretty sure you could have said the same thing about GWB. Things change when you are the Governor of a State.

The US is not going to elect another fundamentalist president for a while.

[ICantSpellDawg]

The US is not going to elect another fundamentalist president for a while.

You you remember how GWB was elected the first time? Do you remember him being a fundamentalist?

[drone]

You you remember how GWB was elected the first time? Do you remember him being a fundamentalist?

Yes to both. And the stench of W's reign will prevent a repeat for a long time.

[CountArach]

Republicans won the Governorship of New Jersey. That's New Jersey, right next to New York. That's with Pro-Life views and being a supporter of George Bush for 8 years.

That was Corzine's personal fault

But Obama was the least of Corzine's problems: Voters in Tuesday's election approved of Obama's performance 57 percent to 43 percent, according to exit polling. It was Corzine they didn't like; 27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for.

Corzine, for his part, ran a polarizing campaign; every time Christie's name appeared in one of his commercials, it came with a scarlet (R) -- for Republican -- attached. Republicans are not popular in New Jersey, but local issues drove the race.

Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and corruption).

[ICantSpellDawg]

That was Corzine's personal fault

But Obama was the least of Corzine's problems: Voters in Tuesday's election approved of Obama's performance 57 percent to 43 percent, according to exit polling. It was Corzine they didn't like; 27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for.

Corzine, for his part, ran a polarizing campaign; every time Christie's name appeared in one of his commercials, it came with a scarlet (R) -- for Republican -- attached. Republicans are not popular in New Jersey, but local issues drove the race.

Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and corruption).

So you expect Democrats to win or lose seats at the mid-terms?

[CountArach]

So you expect Democrats to win or lose seats at the mid-terms?

Lose maybe 10-20 in the house and two or three senate seats, mostly because I think that Bush has inflated the Democrat's majority to an unrealistic extent. However, that is based on the assumption that only a weak healthcare reform bill is passed, as opposed to the much more progressive option. If a more progressive one is passed I would say that it is much harder to call. The public option is much more popular than many would have us believe, but if it is passed that will really annoy a lot of Conservatives and is likely to get health insurance lobbyists investing even more money into the Republican funds. So that would be a harder election to call, though I would tend to think the result would be a bit better for the Democrats.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Voter turnout for obama really helped the dems in congress.

[CountArach]

Voter turnout for obama really helped the dems in congress.

That too, which will make 2012 a really interesting election.

[Lemur]

So you expect Democrats to win or lose seats at the mid-terms?

It would be exceptional for the party in power not to lose seats in a mid-term election. Without some sort of extraordinary circumstances, I'd say it would be impossible.

The salient question would be how many, and in which regions.

[ICantSpellDawg]

It would be exceptional for the party in power not to lose seats in a mid-term election. Without some sort of extraordinary circumstances, I'd say it would be impossible.

The salient question would be how many, and in which regions.

Well unless they are losing them and the position is phasing out, it seems likely that they will be replaced by Republicans.

That would suggest that Republicans are not shrinking in office and are in fact growing. The past few years are allowing us to reflect, realize that we DO need to target non-whites and make sure that those people that we target are family oriented and believe that the government in principle should be the last one we go to to solve our problems.

That's all. Its simple really. The GOP isn't a White party - they used to consist entirely of White protestants. Now, the majority of Catholics are Republicans (although the lead is small). Clearly we evolve and grow and arn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Our growth in this country comes from pro-family immigrants who tend to be religious. The bulk of our population is ageing without replacement levels of reproduction. The GOP has traditionally had a pretty easy time of getting the votes of religious pro-family and elderly (40 - 80) voters.

Marc Rubio is a rising star, I hope to see more legislators and Governors like him in the GOP, and by that I mean Hispanics and others who wouldn't have fit in 10 years ago.

The answer is to get Republicans like Mitt Romney and Chris Christie elected throughout the Northeast, mid-west and Cali. They need to be Pro-life but not push the issue much. They need to be Pro-business and push that hard.