Iranian Elections

[Vladimir]

With all the fervor over European elections is anyone paying attention to Iran? BBCA is trying to sell their coverage of it by basically saying Ahminedejad's rival is the Persian Obama. A quick search revealed http://www.ndi.org/iran_election_bulletin which seems to have good coverage of the elections. Check out the voting Nazgoul.

So, is anyone following these elections?

Edit: I love when the lower classes say "O'bomber." Makes him sound like an Irish terrorist.

But no, I'm generally curious. Please don't take offense.

[Hax]

So, does is anyone following these elections?

Yes! Mir Hussain Moussavi for president!

[Hooahguy]

Yes! Mir Hussain Moussavi for president!

agreed!
i only learned about him through your facebook page, and seems like a worthy candidate.

[Hax]

Well, I think the way for Iran to "democratize" is a long one, but having a pro-reform president who is also interested in dialogue with the US will have a positive influence on Iran and can influence the entire regio in a positive way. The combination Obama - Mousavi could be very good. Hell, even Ahmadinejad sent his congratulations to Obama when he was elected.

There are some major points in Iran which need to be changed as soon as possible, in my opinion:

- The Freedom of Press and Information
- The rights and equality of women

Then there are some long-term problems:

- The rights and equality of homosexuals, which I don't see achievable within 50 years.

- The (temporary) abolishment of the death penalty, save for the worst crimes. I'd prefer abolishment altogether.

[Kadagar_AV]

ANY country that has the death sentence is = barbaric.

Don't get me wrong, some people do deserve death... it's just that it is so extremly hard to change a death sentence once passed.

Better a lifetime in prison, IMHO.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Check out the voting Nazgoul.

That's terrible! But I can't help giggling like a baby over it. It's so apt. ~:laugh-smilie:

[KukriKhan]

Ahmadinejad plays the Godwin.

"No one has the right to insult the president, and they did it. And this is a crime. The person who insulted the president should be punished, and the punishment is jail," he told supporters outside Tehran's Sharif University.

"Such insults and accusations against the government are a return to Hitler's methods, to repeat lies and accusations ... until everyone believes those lies," Ahmadinejad said.

He has never given up his radical student hey-days, rhetorically. He still shouts and pouts like a first-year PoliSci student.

[Vladimir]

Mousavi says Ahmadinejad has isolated Iran with his vitriolic attacks on the United States, his combative line on Iran's nuclear policy and his questioning of the Holocaust.

Interesting. I thought this policy was supported by his grand robeness (as opposed to his hatness) as evidenced by

The relatively unknown Ahmadinejad surprised everyone with his victory four years ago, and he has enjoyed the support of Khamenei throughout his presidency.

How much influence does the president of Iran have? Could the country transform from a state controlled by religion to a state who utilizes religious methods? Could the president of Iran go from the anti-bush to a more traditional realpolitik opponent?

Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part; Iran transforming to a more traditional adversary. After all, it's only been ~30 years. I'm so excited!

He advocates easing nuclear tensions, while rejecting demands that Tehran halt nuclear work which the West fears could be used to make bombs.

OK. I can understand this and would probably do so myself. This new guy needs to get elected. I don't mind so much if they have the ability as long as they lack the will. The current nutjob is ready and willing.

Another group said on Wednesday that Rafsanjani would be responsible if the tension escalated into violence.

The ILNA news agency said cars decked out in Mousavi's green campaign colors were attacked in central Tehran on Wednesday, but gave no details of the damage.

This sounds like modern Venezuela. Also very Godwin-esque.

I know Reuters has grown a few warts on its nose recently but the picture they paint makes me hopeful.

[Hosakawa Tito]

All politics is local.

Like most other people, Iranians will vote with their pocketbook.

Broken promises, hard economic times and the old "familiarity breeds contempt" syndrome that most politicians eventually have to deal with seems to be working against Ahmadinejad, not to mention his confrontational style.

[CountArach]

Good run down of the election here. I didn't realise Another-Dinner-Jacket was under pressure from his side of politics as well.

[Prodigal]

Watched a liveleak debate from Iranian tv yesterday, what was worrying was that it was unclear as to whether the candidate in the debate was more right wing than Ahmadinejad.

At one point he seemed to be saying that the British sailors should have been executed, & letting them go was a terrible policy mistake. I thought that Ahmadinejad was on the far right already.

[rory_20_uk]

Sounds like good old fashioned tub thumping after the event to gain votes from the masses.

[FactionHeir]

According to news of the count at 72%, Ahmadinejad leads with 65.7% over Moussavi's 31.4%.
As is usual, the challenger claims the count has been manipulated.

[Lemur]

In case you were wondering:

[rasoforos]

I am not surprised.

Where the liberal Iranian administration failed (to initiate talks with the west), Ahmadinejad succeeded. He the 'child' of decisions made by western administrations.

[rotorgun]

In case you were wondering:

Nice chart Lemur. The color arrangements put me in mind of something Byzantine during the late Roman Empire, with the Green and Blue Parties vying for political control....and then the Emperor (read Supreme Leader) steps in. Alas, another bloody ending. (sigh)

[Hax]

A shame, I really hoped Mousavi would win.

Not all votes are counted yet, but it's looking pretty grim.

[DemonArchangel]

The elections were certainly rigged.

[CountArach]

The elections were certainly rigged.

Sauce?

[DemonArchangel]

I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.

[KukriKhan]

Sauce?

Gravy. :)
There are rumblings in the Iranian expat community here, that their votes were not, and won't be, counted. This is anecdotal from my friend/neighbor, 20 years here from Tehran.

[FactionHeir]

I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.

So how did the reformist before Ahmedinejad get elected please?

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

What's the deal with the internet and text-messaging outages and the shenanigans with the reform campaign websites being taken down?

[Scurvy]

I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality

Having said that, it seems the result was unexpected, partly in Ahmadinejad winning, but the extent and areas he won through. Opposition also claim the state was against them in terms of coverage and campaign marches, which has more credibility imo. It will be interesting to see what happens.

I simply do not believe the ruling clergy would allow a reformist to be elected, so they rigged the vote. Otherwise, they never would have expelled Mousavi's observers from the polling sites if they had nothing to be afraid of.

Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'

It is suspicious that opposition election moniters were not allowed to function. Was there any international monitering?

[Lemur]

I wouldn't read too much into the rig- claim of the opposition, it seems a bit of a formality

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

-edit-

And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.

[Ice]

Dunno about that. It sure as hell looks rigged.



And here's a guy who predicted more or less exactly what happened:

CPV representatives point to several indicators of an Iranian neo-conservative plot to steal the election. For one, they note that over 59 million ballots have been printed, far more than the number of registered voters. They also have evidence that a substantial, though undetermined, number of soldiers has been ordered to hand over their national identity cards to officers. Most importantly, according to another CPV report, up to a third of voting booths in Iran will be protected by the Revolutionary Guards, and not the regular Law Enforcement Agency personnel.

To lend vote-rigging an air of religious legitimacy, a prominent hardline cleric has reportedly issued a fatwa, or religious edict, that would condone fraud in the name of supposedly defending the spirit of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. [...]

One factor that may be too large for the Supreme Leader and others to ignore is the fact that Mousavi’s campaign appears to have tapped into the energy of Iran’s under-30 demographic segment. Given that a majority of the country’s population is under 30, any decision that disregarded the hopes and opinions of this segment of the electorate, especially now that it has become politically awakened, would risk severely undermining the foundation on which the Islamic Republic stands. Those hoping to regenerate the spirit of the revolution could possibly cause its destruction.

How young people would respond to vote-rigging is unpredictable at this point. There is a very real possibility that Rafsanjani is right, and that a fixed election could trigger an eruption that could bury the Islamic Republic. Thus, key elements, from the Supreme Leader on down, may shy away from backing Ahmadinejad to the hilt.

-edit-

And the youths don't seem very happy with the result.

I believe it's time for another revolution when the government starts fixing votes, although it doesn't really matter who is president is when the Supreme Leader makes all the calls. This does make it easier for him to rule though.

[Ice]

Khatami was relatively 'reformist,' and even Rafsanjani was not hardline conservative. The Council allowed 2 reformist candidates to stand, which they could have vetoed if they really wanted too. It's not as simple as 'he won, so it must be rigged.'

Read between the lines. By allowing reformist candidates to stand, the people were given the illusion that they actually had a choice (this applies to presidency in general)

[Viking]

Haha - taking the fight back

[rotorgun]

Haha - taking the fight back

"Looks like this is the end!" It's time for Underdog to make his appearance, or maybe a Brad Pit type of maneuver as portrayed in Troy.

[Lemur]

A valuable analysis:

But just as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene. And here is how I would reconstruct the crime.

As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory.

The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose.

They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts.

This clumsy cover-up then produced the incredible result of an Ahmadinejad landlside in Tabriz and Isfahan and Tehran.

The reason for which Rezaie and Karoubi had to be assigned such implausibly low totals was to make sure Ahmadinejad got over 51% of the vote and thus avoid a run-off between him and Mousavi next Friday, which would have given the Mousavi camp a chance to attempt to rally the public and forestall further tampering with the election.

This scenario accounts for all known anomalies and is consistent with what we know of the major players.