Iranian Elections

[Marshal Murat]

Are people making too much of this? Barring a complete revolution, whichever candidate wins we're not likely to see any major policy changes from Iran are we?

This whole protest is a step by the "liberal" moderate Iranians, actually mobilizing and acting out against a the repressive government. Iranians are fed up with being poor, unemployed, and having their government run by a militaristic nutjob. Many Iranian commentators liken this the Revolution of 1979, this is a revolt against a "coup" by Ahjmadenijad's miltarist/populist followers. They want change, and while Mousavi isn't a Western-phile at heart, he isn't going to try and wipe Israel off the map; with the current American administration we're looking for greater dialogue and more open relations than had under previous administrations (who knows, we might see a loosening of trade restrictions). You're right in that there won't be major policy changes, but it'll relax the tensions between the two countries (US & Iran), a "reset" sorely needed to bring about greater peace and stability in the Middle East, if only the first step

To avert an escalation, Ayatollah Khamenei may have to find a way either to persuade the losers and their backers and followers that the results were genuine and fair, or to pacify them by other means - perhaps by curbing Mr Ahmadinejad or diluting his policies in some way.

The mullahs have to either curb the power of Ahmadenijad to prevent him from even usurping their powers, or have Mousavi elected.