Well, I just had some diplomacy that made complete sense and was anything but random.

I knocked out the French. Spain was a happy trade partner, however they sent a diplomatic proposal asking for France in exchange for most of their European holdings plus Cuba and New Mexico, with the little cash they had on hand. I turned it down and I got an immediate DoW from them, showing that they intended on having France one way or another. I still don't know that they have armies to take it but it had a definite intent behind the proposal.