Fact is that the AI has fairly decent priorities when it comes picking a target for a charge. For example I noticed that native lancers always charge the moving units (even if it is on the other flank) and not the stationary ones (ofc facing the lancers). Also lancers avoid pikemen at all cost (which ofc can be exploited by the player). So just because an experinced player can outsmart the AI it does not mean that the AI is utterly dumb.
The real test would be letting someone fight the AI who never seen a TW battle. Actually, IIRC someone did that with the vanilla game and the player was trashed in all battles.
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