I dont dispute your intuition sharpshooter - after all easily traceable v'n'vs like battlefield related ones do have clear targets that are related to things that happen during play (coward etc).
However, it would be hard to conclude for many of those you mention, although i would have guessed that treasury, diplomatic relations, trading status, policy,a ggressiveness relative to neighbour strength etc may be triggers to v'n'vs.
Its not clear if however all of them can be traced back deterministically to events or a semi-random (or even random!) element as mentioned by Drone is involved. Its possible that the truth may be between the two views ie both play a part.
In this light i think that a number of your conclusions can be disputed - for example i doubt that the medieval TW AI makes decisions on the number of Chivalric Knights built - although i dont discount the possibility.
And yes, welcome to the .org Tirpitz!
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