Well, after examining the morale condition on Alexandros' troopers, take into the mind that he wasn't poisoned / ill, and the Hypothetical condition that more likely to be happened in Italian soil, we can conclude that:
On this condition, Alexandros decide to attack Roma soon after he back from Babylon, he'll get heavily demoralized veteran troops and war-weary elites, that means he never wait wait tens of years later (but if he decide to wait long years, manage a good empire, raise and properly train his pezhetairoi just like his father do and pamper his elite troops so they get their will to fight again, he will certainly win and vanquish rome).
The logical experiment goes:
On Alexandros' side:
- He couldn't rely on extreme majority of his veteran troops, afterall they are bored and need to spend some good quality time with their family, that means he must rely on *cough* fresh militia levy from Makedonia (just like Phalangitai Deuteroi), Illyrian and Epeirote tribes (mostly Illyrioi Paraktioi and Thureophoroi), and young Hellenes that never seen a war before (Hoplitai Haploi and such psiloi troops)
- Alexandros never cared much about elephants, he thinks that elephants are better served as foodstuff at the table afterall, so, no elephants for his army (who want to incorporate a bulky and risky troop type that he defeat on very first contact)
- The Skythian tribes are still at large, and after witnessing their prowess in several battles, maybe he will hire some Scythian horse archers fresh from the steppe to augment his own (remember guys, Alexandros' cavalry is allready wearied and didn't want to go to war again, no Thessalians for Alexander in this campaign).
- And he will proceed to contact some Agrianai and several Thrakian tribes to give him some Agrianikoi Pelekuphoroi, Peltastai, and maybe Thraikioi Prodromoi to replace his demoralized hetairoi (we can assume that the only real hetairoi present in his campaign are his personal bodyguards, as well as his general's retinues only, but never at large numbers), this was the only way of him to gaining some experienced troops, but then, this troops maybe the disloyal one, so their numbers wouldn't be great)
- And at least, don't forget that he need several of his troops to check those Spartiatai Bad Boys at Hellas, Indian kingdoms that love to unleash their elephants' ass toward Macedonians, as well, as properly reinforcing his empire at Asia and Egypt, so no supperior numbers for Alexandros, his empire was allready large and need extreme cost of Maintenance.
On Roman Side, or more Precisely, Joined Roman-Karthadast-MegaleHellas-Celtic Alliance (here goes, assuming the baddest day for Alexandros, as always): - for easier keeping, I'll call them the Allied Force
- Karthadast will certainly join their forces against threat of Alexandros. They'll supply not only the Navy, but also their elite troops, as well as using their wealth bribing several Celtic tribes to the north into their alliance (expect they'll do that, as they allready use several mercenary forces)
- The Italian cities will clear their differences, and then flock under the banner of Roma, against one Huge empire that named Makedonia (Note: Hellenes do that against Persian empires, so we must assume that Roma will become the one who rally the Italians on the Italian soil, afterall, their sense of shared identity will prevail when they face extreme foreign threat)
- The Megale Hellas WON'T SUPPORT ALEXANDROS!!! and more likely support Romans at this time... remember where the disloyal Hellenes take their refugees when Alexandros clean the Hellas proper? Italy.... so expect some nasty Greek troops fought on Roman side. They'll share the role of Good Cavalry with Karthadast Elites.
- We must assume that *cough* the Romans at this time not only fought as poorly armoured rorarii, acensi, leves, and hastati with frying pan on their chest, consider they squezze their treasury to produce several proper armoury to increase their number of Princeps and Triarii. Not to mention that their Italian allies will also pump Samnites and Pedites Extraordinarii, as well as some horsies.
- The bribed Celts will get their proper army, expect some of Naked Angry men on the field, as well as disciplined chainmail armoured soldiers on teh field.
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The Progress:
0) Alexandros is using fresh Makedonian and Hellene levies as his initial landing troops under his personal command. After examining the size and population of Hellenic Poleis at Hellas proper that time, I assume he can raise an army of barely trained phalangitai with not so good armour about 8000 men strong. And the city states of Hellenes will supply about 10000 militia hoplites that lack any battle experience. The Hellenes and some Makedones will also support him with 10000 light skirmishers and missile troops, as well as about 3000 light and medium cavalry (hippakontistai and hippeis, but don't forget that Alexandros will also bring in the freshly built badass Catapult, ordered from the university of Athenai. Maybe we can add 1000 Thraikioi Prodromoi as his real cavalry force, and supplement his number with 1000 agrianian assault infantry, and 1000 Thracian peltast. His total force for initial landing = 35000 men
1) Alexandros is a military genius, and this time he got TONS of experience, so he will try to use the fastest way to land on the Whole Allied territory, rather than blatantly just drop his troops on Italy. He'll secure his foothold on Megale Hellas first (expect Taras to be invaded first), and expect that this landing is taken by surprise (he will certainly try to made the Allied thinks that he will land on the north Italy, or march by land, by placing some mock threats on the northren gallic lands).
Expect the resistance of south italy are composed from Syrakousai-Taras army, with some senior hoplites. But Alexandros are with his Catapult now, and while the Allied try to hide behind their walls, Alexandros will simply bombard and demoralize them, and at last assault them with his Agrianian and Thracian troops on walls...
No matter how hard their resistance is, Taras will be easily taken as the result, and the hellenes here was forced (after doing what Alexandros do in proper hellas back in his young days) to provide some (maybe 2000) addition of proper hoplite, as well as 2000 more of light skirmishers, but we can expect that he will lost half of his Thracian and Agrianian infantry in a brutal assault.
He will let most of his hellenic militia troops rest at this time, and we can expect that he give better armour to get some proper hoplites this time. His Phalangitai are just present to watch their first battle, but not take any real part.
2) The Allied then rush to the south, and meet Alexandros on the field with joint Roman-Celtic army, as well as Karthadast cavalry at their expense.
This troops will mostly composed of the Cream of the Romaioi, as well as the Karthadast Sacred Band Cavalry (really, they will try to kick Alexandros' ass out of Italy quickly that time, and they kick really hard with bringing their sheer elite forces in supperior numbers to ensure Alexandros army was raped at this time).
They will meet Alexandros with a staggering forces of 4000 Heavily armoured triarii, 8000 Sword armed princepes, 8000 lightly armoured Hastati, 16000 Rorarii-Leves-Accensi, 14000 Pedites Extraordinarii and Samnite-Like soldiers, 21000 light Italian infantry, 10000 Italian Hoplites, 15000 light armed Gallic tribesmen, 9000 properly pissed off Gallic warriors, 3000 Gallic Elite Warriors (Fanatics included), 4000 Light Gallic cavalry, 2000 Phoenician cavalry, 1000 Elite Phoenician cavalry, and 10000 lightly armed Libyan mercenaries.
The Battle is a bad day for Alexandros now... but let us remember that he was Charismatic enough to inspire his troops to do better things than they usually are... He will try to divert them into a narrow pass on Italian mountains, where their numbers are heavily negated (look for a lil mountain pass north of Taras and Rhegion, Alexandros will outmanouver the Allied there, just like in Issus). After that, he'll rest his Phalangitai on the central pass to get easier kill (most of the Romans and Celts will prove their "Bravery" by charging frontally there hoping their sheer numbers will scare and break the poorly trained Phalangitai), but Alexandros has read that before, and he will present at the Central pass to encourage his levy Phalangitai. He will use His heaviest hoplite to back the phalangitai, and put his lighter hoplite to guard another pass and his back.
The battle result is = The Allied are utterly ruined and routed, but Alexandros will lost most of his Phalangitai troops too. His Heavy hoplites are severely damaged, and his light hoplites are getting significant casualities. But then, in turns, after that Battle, the Rest of Megale Hellas will join him, and he get enough time to ship another Militia Phalangitai from Makedon, as well as several more Assault troopers and Scythian cavalry.
3) The Romans are badly mauled, rather than waiting longer (after several skirmishes), Alexandros will carry his sheer will (with his new fresh militia troops from Hellas), to bombard Roma with Catapults, The Romans will then... *cough* immitating the Spartans and made their *cough* soory Satalexton *cough* heroic last stand on Roma, where they fought tooth and nails against Invading Makedonian army.... 40000 rorarii (assumed all left able bodied men in Roma fought for their lives), with 12000 Hastati will fought against Boulder flingin' Catapult defended by Hoplites.... Really brutal battle afterall, Alexandros will lost almost all of his assault infantry, and lost most of his fresh hoplites again, and forced to exterminate barbaropolis for a good reason....
The Karthadastei and Their Celtic Allies will then continue the war, and maybe some Romaioi will fled and take refugees, but then, The Roma was fallen, and Alexandros will let his men to rape the romaioi women so they'll get proper Greek sons...
After that, I'll expect Karthadast to attack from the South, and the next battle will be in Sicily, but then, Barbaropolis is allready fallen, albeit with a heavy cost....
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That's my logical simulation...
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