
Originally Posted by
Macilrille
The Romans changed to the more mobile Manipular System between 338 and 311 at the latest and would not have been an easy catch, being very warlike and tenacious; Romans of the Republic make pitbulls look like poodles in their tenacity in the face of any setback.
However Finn's assumptions are based on faulty comparison. Rome of 336 BC- 323 BC was not Rome of 280 BC. The Struggle between the classes was over and Latium were firm Roman allies despite what SkullHQ asserts (he obviously knows more Hellene history than Roman, with me it is the opposite). However, the rest of Italy was not yet controlled by Rome and they were embroiled in a hard struggle with the Samnites for supremacy in the peninsula. With the Samnite history of animosity to Rome I find it hard to believe that they would have sided with them against Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος, nor would the Greek city States in south Italy, nor probably Capua, having another long story of animosity to Rome.
So assuming that at various points in his career Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος would have went West instead of South and East, here is my go at it.
336, Macedonia and Rome was probably about equally strong, the Romans lacking good cavalry though and probably still using Hoplite tactics or just having changed would be disadvantaged by that, Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος by fighting on enemy turf, possibly with supply lines cut by Carthage and certainly with rebellions broiling at home and strife at his borders. Unless he could manage to smash the Romans in a Cannae-style battle I suspect he would be in trouble despite samnite and Tarentum support.
334 With Macedonia and Greece now firmly behind him, his supply lines would be more secure both from naval trouble and trouble on his home turf. Rome would be in trouble, for no doubt Samnium would side with Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος. Rome was not eastern despotism though, so a long and bloody war of attrition lurks and meanwhile the Greeks proper would probably wonder why the guy they elected to protect and avenge them against the Persians was bimpling around in Italy. Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος would need to subdue Res Publica Romana quickly or face trouble in Hellas, and SPQR did not easily surrender to anyone.
332, say instead of going for rich and ancient Egypt Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος had sailed west to deal with some barbarian tribe/nation in Italy. Rome would probably have been smashed by his veteran, well-led and well-integrated army. However, what would Darius do to his eastern conquests while he was undertaking the long task of subduing the stubborn Romans?
326/327, if he decided to leave India alone and go allllllll the way back west to deal with the insignificant tribe in Italy?
Rome would be defeated, but it would be a long and hard struggle. Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος had shown his ability to deal with such in the eastern parts of his empire and Bactria though and he would be both immensely rich and have the resources of the largest empire the world had seen behind him... so he would defeat Rome and this close to home; would his army be so eager to get home? Even if so, he would have no trouble replacing them with fresh recruits eager for glory and booty in his homeland before setting out. Something he could hardly do along the Hyphasis. Samnites etc would still side with him. I do not see how the Romans could have survived such a massive amount of resources.
320-ish, assuming he survives or did not contact his illness (I do not believe the poison theory), Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος could have easily recruited a new army eager for glory and with "NCO"'s and core being veterans while discharging his oldies. With this army he would have crushed Rome in a long and bloody struggle as described above. Again I do not see how even Rome could stand against him, they were, after all, just another city state in Italy. And locked in a long struggle with the almost equally strong Samnites who hated Rome even up to the Socii-War...
Roman resources:
Good heavy infantry, Hoplite or newly formed into manipular system, very warlike and tenacious.
Roman weaknesses, almost no cavalry, thus no Combined Arms tactics. No navy, but Carthage could supply that.
Total Roman Strength was at 311 approximately 12.000 heavy infantry, 4800 light infantry and skirmishers and 1200- 1800 cavalry. Socii would probably double that number, or even triple it. This number was achieved between 366 BC and 311 BC, we do not know when, but in 366, the infantry was only half the number.
Max number, 30-36.000 heavy inf, 14.400 light inf, 3600- 5000 Cav
Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος resources:
338 BC (probably same in 336), 30.000 Inf, 2000 Cav.
334, 22.000 Phalangati, 20.000 Peltastai, 5000 Cav.
333, 22.000 Phalangati, 14.000 Peltastai, 5-6000 Cav.
331, 31.000 Phalangati, 9000 Peltastai, 7000 Cav.
326, at furthest limit and heavily attrited, 34.000 inf and 9000 cav.
In general comparable and even-ish numbers to potential Roman muster, much superior to normal Roman muster and in any case superior in cavalry (Can we say "Cannae"?).
Macedonian strengths was the combined arms tactic using the heavy phalanx to pin down the enemy centre while the lighter peltastai covered the flanks and the cavalry outflanked them. Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος could do this in confidence that the superior Phalanx would not break in the face of even very superior numbers. Pyrrhus did much the same, strenghtening his cavalry attacks by using the fearsome elephants.
If we use the Pyrrhic campaigns as a guide it is likely that the outcome would have been much the same as their armies and tactics were very similar. However, Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος was a much superior politician and could probably have exploited his victories more and IMO he had a better army at his disposal. Much credit much go to Phillipos for creating the army that Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος used. Further, as I said, Rome of 330-ish was not Rome of 280-ish. They had much fewer resources. The muster numbers I state are very optimistic- very. It is more likely that they would be limited to a total of 15.-20.000 inf and 2-3000 cav.
If we believe Hannibal Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος and Pyrrhus were also similar in tactical and strategic skill (personally I hold Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος to be better, but then they faced different enemies and it is hard to compare). In any case, while Pyrrhus had only the resources of Epeiros and Taras at his disposal, Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος would have those of the largest empire the world had seen. In the end that- if nothing else- would have been decisive.
It is BTW, interesting to note that most of the really good armies led by the great leaders of the fourth- third centuries BC are of comparable size. One could guesstimate that such was the optimum size?
Anyway, the points are very moot, for Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος would not have turned West.
Why on earth should he? Unless he was blessed with prescience he could never have guessed that one of many tribes on the Italian peninsula would be the next great power and create an empire that would rival his own and outlast it by far. So what on earth would he do in underdeveloped Barbaricum?
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