This is all true but if there was a war the lads are right in that the North would seem to have the advantage in the early stages the element of surprise plus the sheer weight of numbers would overwhelm the south.
The southern capitol would likely be overun in a few hours day at best however the south would regroup and fight a holding action till US carrier group crossed the pacific.
While they waited B2 bombers would strike targets all across the north and I would say by end of 3 months the war is over maybe shorter if China pulled them back from in.
The death toll would be enormous and it would be mostly civilians the world could tip into recession even worse than now and though not as likely a single misstep could draw china in if they felt threatened
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