Korean sword-rattling

[PanzerJaeger]

i am with ICE here.

Me too.

This would be far more like the First Gulf War than the Second. North Korea's military is exactly what the US military, and by extension the ROK, has been built to defeat - large, organized, and built around Soviet doctrine. Numbers are meaningless in this day and age, it's all about technology. As was displayed in the First Gulf War, if you allow your military to fall even a step behind your enemy, it can render very costly weapons systems -such as Iraq's Russian tanks and fighters - useless. The Air Force has countless non-nuclear choices in its arsenal that are specially designed to neutralize vast enemy columns of tanks and infantry.

No, I don't think the DRNK proper would be much trouble at all - at least in terms of military casualties (they would certainly give Seoul a good pounding, for which they are prepared). What would be worrying is any sort of occupation. We don't really have a firm grasp on the psyche of the average North Korean. From our perspective, he should be thrilled at having the totalitarian yolk lifted from his back, but our perspective certainly hasn't always panned out. He could be so brainwashed at this point that he would fight to the death, or he may be somewhere between the two. If I was the Obamanator under such a scenario, I'd definitely let the South Koreans take charge on that one...

[Husar]

I was skeptical at first but Ice convinced me with the Wikipedia link.
The MiG-29 is the most modern fighter they seem to have, apparently not the most modern model and only 30 as well. The MiG-21 is getting really old, even the more modern models shouldn't atand much pf a chance against a decent modern airforce. Those MiG-17 and MiG-19 derivatives are Vietnam-war tech...I know, so is the M-16 but these planes are hardly able to fire missiles, they would bring guns to a missile fight...and even if they have missiles they are probably rather inaccurate. The tanks seems similarly old(most of them anyway) so they should be easy to penetrate and destroy with modern technology. That would then leave about a million or so men armed with AKs and RPGs, who can be very dangerous depending on how they are used.

If Kim Jong Il knows that and hasn't completely descended into madness yet, I doubt he will attack, maybe make a parade, show the people his "high-tech" 1950ies airplanes in a nice parade and demonstration of military "might" and uhm, yeah...

[Subotan]

Only with us approval subotan

I doubt that the Japanese would wait for a US rubber stamp if the DPRK attacked

That is not true. Almost all of n. Koreas meagar gdp goes to defense spending.

Actually, it's about 25% of GDP.

The very concept of GDP is unknown is North Korea. They are so backward, they prefer to use Gross Volume of Social Production (GVSP), which happily for them, consistently overestimates the power of the already clearly weak North Korean economy

Most of their naval power is absolutely obsolete and air is weak as well (but dangerous) their land forces are well supplied by china and are quite dangerous it is a million without reserves actually. The rok would win but it would be very very bloody. As well if the us invaded we would lose a lot of men. If you think people complain about afghanistan and iraq......

This is true. It would be an absolute blood bath.

Limited oil supplies

The North Koreans have taken precautions to make sure that all of their precious oil supplies are funneled into the military. All civilian/industrial energy comes from coal/hydro.

Unknown levels of morale (if the armed forces are high in morale they'd fight to the death, if low then they could crumble)

I think the organised forces would crack pretty easily, once the facade of the invincible North Korean Army is ripped to shreds by the South Koreans. Shock and awe might be effective, simply because our level of technological advancement is so far beyond theirs.

The international response

China has a very realist foreign policy. Once North Korea's actions become detrimental to China's interests (i.e. a war), China will drop Kim faster than you can say "Ronery"

The topography of Korea

Particularly northern Korea. It's easier to strike south than strike north.

Outnumbering every aspect of any war. Men. Armour. Artillery. Rockets. Planes. Navy.

And all within a few miles of the Dmz....

Capable submarine force. Sinking a S.K ship and avoiding detection displays that they do have some knowledge of how to effectively use subs.

I have heard nothing but bad things about North Korea's naval cabability.

[Pannonian]

Is Kafirchobee planning on a holiday trip to his old haunts, now that things are getting interesting?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...
Numbers are meaningless in this day and age, it's all about technology....

While I agree with most of your assessment of NK's capability (hence my point above suggesting they had only about a week to succeed before the counter-response took them down), I disagree with your dictum above.

Morale and the will-to-combat is the central issue. Lacking that, almost any force advantage is useless. With plenty of it, your numerous but technologically backward/doctrinally disadvantaged troops can still do far better than their cruddy tools and training would suggest. The best weapon in the world fails if the enemy have more soldiers willing to close than you have rounds with which to shoot them.

[rory_20_uk]

The battles would be extremely brief:

North Korea devastates Soeul and other cross-border targets using artillery.
They're very quickly hampered by lack of air support and effective anti air. Any overground movement in numbers almost impossible.
America will be able to crack hardened Northern targets eventually, but they'll take a lot of punishment.

Stalemate.

But advancing North? Then it'll all go wrong. Possibility of fanatics everywhere, booby traps etc. You can try to devistate the North Korean economy, but there isn't that much there.

[TinCow]

If North Korea launched a surprise attack against they consquences would be devasting to South Korea. Seoul would resemble Stalingrad during WWII, and millions would perish.

I'm not sure I agree with this. I don't think it's really possible for North Korea to launch a true surprise attack in this manner. Any concentration of forces near the border would be immediately identified by US spy satellites and aircraft, who watch NK 24/7. In order to hit the South with a huge wave attack, a lot of build-up would be required and that build-up would be detected and a corresponding SK/US build-up would occur. In addition, this is being discussed like it's a simple NK/SK war from Day 1, and it's not. There are about 30,000 US troops on the ground in SK at any one time, with nearly 50,000 more close by in Japan. The US 2nd Infantry Division is permanently stationed in SK and it is specifically trained and organized to withstand a large-scale NK assault. It's armed with a large number of M1A1/2 tanks and has the freedom to operate in cleared terrain south of the DMZ. We saw in Gulf War I that the Abrahms and Bradley had kill ratios of 20:1 or higher against older Soviet-style tanks, which is what NK would be using. SK is armed with a large number of similarly powerful armored vehicles. In addition, between SK and Japan, the US can deploy upwards of 500 aircraft to Korea at short notice, not counting support from any carrier groups that would be nearby (and there would certainly be carrier groups nearby).

Essentially, I don't think NK has the ability to launch a surprise attack that would overwhelm the SK/US defenses before US reinforcements arrived. SK/US are too well prepared for exactly that kind of scenario and their equipment and training is more than enough to counter NK's numerical superiority. Seoul would certainly see a lot of damage from NK artillery in the opening volleys, but I do not think NK forces would reach there on the ground, and I think the NK artillery would be largely silenced by SK/US air power within a few days. The real threat from NK is nuclear.

[KukriKhan]

U.S. can fight 1 and a half wars without full mobilization. More takes full mobilization. The concept has been tested over and over again since the end of 'Nam. With NK, "what the PRC will do" is always the question. So, if the mission is "Repel an invasion from the North/Return to Status Quo", that is doable with current resources. If the mission is "Defeat/Liberate the North", get ready for a long fight and a world-war style mobilization/diversion of resources.

[gaelic cowboy]

A lot of people are saying here if war happened Japan would go in I find this doubtful there is still a lot of bad blood against Japan even in Korea far more likely they will give aid for the war effort.

[Hosakawa Tito]

Hopefully we'll not have to test any of these scenarios. I imagine Japan's prime minister decided against closing the air base on Okinawa because of this recent development.

[TinCow]

U.S. can fight 1 and a half wars without full mobilization. More takes full mobilization. The concept has been tested over and over again since the end of 'Nam. With NK, "what the PRC will do" is always the question. So, if the mission is "Repel an invasion from the North/Return to Status Quo", that is doable with current resources. If the mission is "Defeat/Liberate the North", get ready for a long fight and a world-war style mobilization/diversion of resources.

I agree with this, but it also depends on the time frame when this occurs. By next summer, the US should be completely out of Iraq, leaving Afghanistan as the only distraction to Korea. While that's a major distraction, I would expect that Afghanistan would take a back seat to Korea in the even of a hot war in Korea, thus we'd have 1 full war in Korea and one half war in Afghanistan. In addition, the only way war will ever occur in Korea is if NK attacks first. In such a scenario, SK will not have difficulty finding allies. I would expect a similar scenario to the Korean War, where many other nations deployed sizable contingents to aid SK. I would expect to see significant deployments by the UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, and France, and many smaller contingents from other western-aligned nations. This would be a much stronger international alliance than we saw in Gulf War II; more on par with Gulf War I. That said, those deployments would take a while to arrive.

[aimlesswanderer]

Kin Jong Il doesn't want to start a war, he just wants to be able to continue to live the high life and to be able to pass that down to a son. That doesn't mean that another faction might do something really stupid and start a war.

From what little I know about the NK military, I'd agree with the above posts that it is equipped with primitive technology. However, if they were able to mass near the border and launch a surprise attack, the South Koreans would be in big trouble until the US (and others) could come and help out. I think the sheer number of NK troops would overwhelm initial efforts, high tech and all. Though if you gave them decent food they might all just surrender or defect or eat until they got sick.

I think that China is most anxious to avoid a war next door or NK collapsing in a heap. They want stability, and really really don't want waves of refugees flocking across the border. Caused by either war or state failure. I am not sure if they would support NK if they did something really stupid and declared war. Their top priority would likely be to go with whatever they thought would lead to the least amount of chaos.

On the other hand, millions of Chinese men would love to marry a desperately impoverished NK woman due to the shortage of Chinese women. So if the NK men get killed off during the fighting...

[Centurion1]

Husar as the US military leanred all to well in early vietnam, brining guns to a missile fight in small nimble fighters is very very dangerous fort he guys with the missiles. Before we added a cannon onto our vietnam era craft we relied soley on missiles and rockets. this did not serve us well.

[TinCow]

Husar as the US military leanred all to well in early vietnam, brining guns to a missile fight in small nimble fighters is very very dangerous fort he guys with the missiles. Before we added a cannon onto our vietnam era craft we relied soley on missiles and rockets. this did not serve us well.

Current US air power is no longer comparable to what it was in Vietnam. The US now utilizes extensive stealth technology to destroy ground defenses, and the F-22 is operational. Based on their performance in Red Flag exercises, deployment of even a handful of F-22s to Korea would totally negate all NK air power. You can't hit what you can't see, especially when the other guy can kill you from beyond visual range.

[edit]News reports indicate that the US is deploying 12 F-22s to Japan this week specifically because of the NK situation.

[drone]

US doctrine is to target the opponent's command and control structure. Air superiority would be gained quickly, allowing strike aircraft to do just that. All the soldiers in the world won't be worth much, if they are running around without proper orders. Seoul will take a big hit from the artillery, and the first wave will be hairy, but the follow on actions of the NK forces will be hampered by lack of proper comms and a devastated chain of command. How much independent thinking and control are mid-level officers allowed in the NK army? My guess is not much, this is typical in totalitarian societies.

The NK submarine fleet would be a worry. They have fairly modern battery/diesel subs, close to the shore they will be able to inflict some damage.

[Vladimir]

I find it interesting that many people think North Korea could even assemble in mass much less attack. As was stated earlier, it's impossible for a conventional army to concentrate it's forces without the U.S. being aware of it. I know NK loves it's tunnels but you can't drive a steamroller through a straw.

[Centurion1]

I know I was using an example of when inferior aircraft caused damage.

Satellite coverage is not infallible

[spmetla]

Here's some link's to Planeman's Bluffers Guides which are amateur but in depth looks into the military capabilities of North Korea.

Bluffer's Guide Fortress North Korea

North Korean Naval Power

North Korea strikes! NOTE: Link leads to forum thread at MilitaryPhotos.net

[Furunculus]

he's good, read his stuff before.

[PanzerJaeger]

Here's some link's to Planeman's Bluffers Guides which are amateur but in depth looks into the military capabilities of North Korea.

Bluffer's Guide Fortress North Korea

North Korean Naval Power

North Korea strikes! NOTE: Link leads to forum thread at MilitaryPhotos.net

Great information. Thanks for sharing.

[Ice]

Korean War Capabilities
There is little doubt in anyone’s mind of the superiority of the South Korean military pound for pound. However, this is not the point that is being argued. The debate is centered on the fact that it would not be a quick war and that N. Korea does in fact possess a military capable of severe damage to S. Koreas armed forces without heavy support from the United States.
The North Korean navy is often overlooked. But that is because people often concentrate purely on her surface fleet. The North Korean navy outnumbers the South Korean navy approximately 7:1. The North Koreans have relatively high-class submarines (1980’s era) purchased from Russia in the 90’s and early 2000’s. North Korea has more submarines than all of South Korean vessels. South Korea has tier two frigates and destroyers. North Korea has no destroyers and at best tier three frigates. However, the age of the surface ship is past and these really have very little impact besides being escort ships and mobile gun platforms. In the end the S. Korean navy would be whittled down by the sheer size of N. Korea’s naval forces though at great cost to N. Korea’s naval forces. This is of course assuming the US remained out of the war.
The Korean People’s Air force (KPAF) is not an entity to be shunned. It has more than 3:1 odds against the S. Korean Air Force. As well about 608 out of 1778 of N. Korea’s aircraft are Helo’s. While the S. Koreans are better-trained pilots and have much better aircraft (US F-16’s, recently purchased F-18, numerous classes of US Helo) Numbers are key. The North Korean pilot is on average poorly trained (in comparison to his s. Korean colleague, he does know what he is doing however) the most advanced fighter of the (KPAF) is the Mig-21 which can compete with at best with even pilots an F-14. They have extensive bombing capabilities as well though mostly with outdated aircraft. The South Korean air force is developing a new program F-X an indigenous aircraft the production of which will greatly enhance their air power. The KPAF would eventually fall except for small pockets though they would wield enough power to cause extensive damage and leave the S. Korean air force crippled. If they were lucky enough to get in the initial strike they could cause a crippling blow. However, in all reality the South Korean Air force is, not surprisingly, superior to the KPAF.
The land forces of North Korea are her crown jewel. Composed of over a million active duty members and 4 million ready to go reserves they are well trained by Chinese trainers and her senior officers were sent to Soviet Union schools of military science. South Korean soldiers are much better trained and led however. It should be noted that the S. Korean forces number, 687000 approximately with roughly the same number of reserves. North Korean artillery is very high class and is led by Chinese advisors, ostentatiously called paramilitary contractors. They have relatively advanced artillery and in huge numbers compared to the s. Koreans. It would cause severe infrastructure damage. However, Artillery much like surface ships is relatively outdated and is not the new mode of destruction. As for armor the N. Koreans as typical hold a numerical advantage over the S. Koreans but are at an enormous technological deficit. The K2, which will shortly be phasing out the last model of S. Korean tank, is one of the best in the world. N. Korean armor unless entrenched poses little threat. Infantry is relatively the same on both sides. The South Korean troop is well disciplined and trained though the N. Korean counterpart is not to be sneezed at. In infantry the N. Koreans win through pure numbers.

Supply would be a lopsided affair; the S. Koreans would quickly use their far larger economy to purchase what they needed. N. Korea would have a good possibility of being able to blockade their waters with submarine warfare but it would only delay the process. If the war were not won quickly the N. Koreans would simply run out of supplies. However, in this modern age of lightning fast attacks and mechanized warfare the war could in all reality end quite quickly. It should also be noted that whoever the aggressor nation was would probably face international reprisals and find it much harder to replenish materiel.
In conclusion I would like to reiterate the fact I believe the ROK would win a war with the DRNK though it would be long and bloody. That is the point I am trying to make it would not be an easy fight. The North Korean Armed Forces would cause severe damage and destruction to the S. Korean people and to the Korean peninsula as well. In all likelihood they would most likely employ their chemical weapons and add even more lives to the butchers bill. This is all a hypothetical analysis relying on the fact no other nations throw in for either nation state.




Sources
Naval War College Review (MILITARY CAPABILITY IN ASIA)
Army War Journal (EAST ASIAN SITUATON)
CIA Factbook (DRNK, ROK)
Combat Fleets of the World ed. 1999
Modern Airpower ed. 2003
The Korean Conflict: A Modern Perspective

-The US nor Japan would not stay out of the war. The naval comment doesn't apply.
-See Tin Cow's post about fighters. In addition, the average North Korean pilot is poorly trained and flies outdated machinery.
-North Korea's numerical superiority in tanks is also useless due to most of them being old, rusted soviet era technology.
-Technology would take care of their million man army

Your article is as whole doesn't apply because it seems to assume that in the event of war South Korea would fight alone without any support from outside nations. This couldn't be further from the truth.

[Centurion1]

the response was written off the first assumption and japan is not a sure thing anyway. Plus china would help to counter japan and us.

The north korean is not a poorly trained pilot. And the mig 29 is and other air components are not fully obsolete

I said their armor was worthless.......

Don't overestimate technology

And the naval thing absolutely applies.

[Ice]

the response was written off the first assumption and japan is not a sure thing anyway. Plus china would help to counter japan and us.

Wait, what? Are you implying China would actually engage the United States and Japan? The most the Chinese would do, would be to move in North Korea and secure key security positions. They sure as hell wouldn't fight on the losing side of North Korea and risk their entire economic relation with the United States. Not to mention that China doesn't particularly like North Korea.

Japan pretty much is a sure thing. They are strong allies with South Korea, and in the event of an attack, would come to their aid.

The north korean is not a poorly trained pilot. And the mig 29 is and other air components are not fully obsolete

On average, yes they absolutely are. This is due to a lack of fuel needed to pilot such aircrafts. You are correct their their airforce is not COMPLETELY obsolete. However, it would still get destroyed by the combined power on the United States and South Korea. Both have an enormous edge.

I said their armor was worthless.......

Must have missed that. I'd agree.

Don't overestimate technology

Don't underestimate it. I'm not talking about technology on the individual soldier, I'm talking about it as a whole. The days of massive world war II style fighting is over.

And the naval thing absolutely applies.

Again no it doesnt. North Korea has a green water navy. It can't even operate a few miles off it's coast. In addition, while it may have a few capable submarines, it is still heavily outgunned by the vastly superior South Korean Navy. In addition, like I said before, it would have US and Japanese naval support.

[Shaka_Khan]

They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves),

That's excluding their reserves. They have a lot more reserves, but I'm not sure about their condition since I figure that their starving.
They have 100,000 special forces too, which is the highest number of special forces in the world.

[rotorgun]

Before we all put the proverbial cart before the horse, doesn't it speak volumes that South Korea hasn't seen fit to retaliate to the sinking of one of its vessels, with the loss of 46 of her sailors? I address what Seamus refers to as "will to fight." In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

[Ice]

In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

Would the the defense of an ally be offensive?

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

Not really. I highly doubt the ROK wants a war with North Korea which what a counter attack could easily turn into.

[Centurion1]

GA long bloody slog ice which is all I'm trying to say

And actually without a us approval sticker they would not be able to defense d anywhere outside of the Japanese waters

[rotorgun]

Would the the defense of an ally be offensive?

Not necessarily, but it would be a measuraed response I think, one well considered in light of their constitutional obligations.

Not really. I highly doubt the ROK wants a war with North Korea which what a counter attack could easily turn into.

This is my point. I think they lack the political will, which the North may interpret as a go ahead for a preemptive strike, one that could cripple the South's military in such a way as to insure a protracted war. If the North were to act with alacrity, they might just win some major concessions in a negotiated settlement.

[Furunculus]

Before we all put the proverbial cart before the horse, doesn't it speak volumes that South Korea hasn't seen fit to retaliate to the sinking of one of its vessels, with the loss of 46 of her sailors? I address what Seamus refers to as "will to fight." In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

japans 'defensive' activities could be to deploy naval forces as a defensive screen either side of the parallel which would free up SK naval forces otherwise committed to sanitising its own waters.

no readily causes a military incident when the other side has 10,000 artillery pieces within range of your capital, but if NK do start a war I expect the US/SK/Ja/Ch to finish it very quickly.

[Jolt]

They are not as you suggest "garbage", that is just speculative Ice. They are no doubt fanatical and committed, and that makes them dangerous.

Actually I have serious doubts they are as fanatical as we are led to believe. The only thing we know about the collective psyche of the North Korean society comes from North Korea's huge propaganda curtain, which obviously makes them all seem like fanatical, loyal communist people who will all fight to the death and kill everyone.

From what I read in an article provided by my International Politics teacher, according to recent defections from North Koreans, the country seems to be undergoing some social strife. Obviously, people aren't so stupid as to believe that outside North Korea, the world is much worse (especially considering that inside the North Korean world, famines come and go every decade, if not less). One of the defections spoke about some confrontations between the universitary students and police over basically the same things that of Tiananmen (Freedom of speech, political liberalization, etc), but apparently, the whole protest started over conscription issues, and only then took to the political issues.

That said, it goes to show that not everything is fine internally in North Korea, and I wouldn't rule out the collapse of North Korea shortly after the start of the war and once the North Korean army starts losing.