Korean sword-rattling

[rory_20_uk]

The battles would be extremely brief:

North Korea devastates Soeul and other cross-border targets using artillery.
They're very quickly hampered by lack of air support and effective anti air. Any overground movement in numbers almost impossible.
America will be able to crack hardened Northern targets eventually, but they'll take a lot of punishment.

Stalemate.

But advancing North? Then it'll all go wrong. Possibility of fanatics everywhere, booby traps etc. You can try to devistate the North Korean economy, but there isn't that much there.

[KukriKhan]

U.S. can fight 1 and a half wars without full mobilization. More takes full mobilization. The concept has been tested over and over again since the end of 'Nam. With NK, "what the PRC will do" is always the question. So, if the mission is "Repel an invasion from the North/Return to Status Quo", that is doable with current resources. If the mission is "Defeat/Liberate the North", get ready for a long fight and a world-war style mobilization/diversion of resources.

[gaelic cowboy]

A lot of people are saying here if war happened Japan would go in I find this doubtful there is still a lot of bad blood against Japan even in Korea far more likely they will give aid for the war effort.

[Hosakawa Tito]

Hopefully we'll not have to test any of these scenarios. I imagine Japan's prime minister decided against closing the air base on Okinawa because of this recent development.

[TinCow]

U.S. can fight 1 and a half wars without full mobilization. More takes full mobilization. The concept has been tested over and over again since the end of 'Nam. With NK, "what the PRC will do" is always the question. So, if the mission is "Repel an invasion from the North/Return to Status Quo", that is doable with current resources. If the mission is "Defeat/Liberate the North", get ready for a long fight and a world-war style mobilization/diversion of resources.

I agree with this, but it also depends on the time frame when this occurs. By next summer, the US should be completely out of Iraq, leaving Afghanistan as the only distraction to Korea. While that's a major distraction, I would expect that Afghanistan would take a back seat to Korea in the even of a hot war in Korea, thus we'd have 1 full war in Korea and one half war in Afghanistan. In addition, the only way war will ever occur in Korea is if NK attacks first. In such a scenario, SK will not have difficulty finding allies. I would expect a similar scenario to the Korean War, where many other nations deployed sizable contingents to aid SK. I would expect to see significant deployments by the UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, and France, and many smaller contingents from other western-aligned nations. This would be a much stronger international alliance than we saw in Gulf War II; more on par with Gulf War I. That said, those deployments would take a while to arrive.

[Centurion1]

Husar as the US military leanred all to well in early vietnam, brining guns to a missile fight in small nimble fighters is very very dangerous fort he guys with the missiles. Before we added a cannon onto our vietnam era craft we relied soley on missiles and rockets. this did not serve us well.

[TinCow]

Husar as the US military leanred all to well in early vietnam, brining guns to a missile fight in small nimble fighters is very very dangerous fort he guys with the missiles. Before we added a cannon onto our vietnam era craft we relied soley on missiles and rockets. this did not serve us well.

Current US air power is no longer comparable to what it was in Vietnam. The US now utilizes extensive stealth technology to destroy ground defenses, and the F-22 is operational. Based on their performance in Red Flag exercises, deployment of even a handful of F-22s to Korea would totally negate all NK air power. You can't hit what you can't see, especially when the other guy can kill you from beyond visual range.

[edit]News reports indicate that the US is deploying 12 F-22s to Japan this week specifically because of the NK situation.

[drone]

US doctrine is to target the opponent's command and control structure. Air superiority would be gained quickly, allowing strike aircraft to do just that. All the soldiers in the world won't be worth much, if they are running around without proper orders. Seoul will take a big hit from the artillery, and the first wave will be hairy, but the follow on actions of the NK forces will be hampered by lack of proper comms and a devastated chain of command. How much independent thinking and control are mid-level officers allowed in the NK army? My guess is not much, this is typical in totalitarian societies.

The NK submarine fleet would be a worry. They have fairly modern battery/diesel subs, close to the shore they will be able to inflict some damage.

[Vladimir]

I find it interesting that many people think North Korea could even assemble in mass much less attack. As was stated earlier, it's impossible for a conventional army to concentrate it's forces without the U.S. being aware of it. I know NK loves it's tunnels but you can't drive a steamroller through a straw.

[aimlesswanderer]

Kin Jong Il doesn't want to start a war, he just wants to be able to continue to live the high life and to be able to pass that down to a son. That doesn't mean that another faction might do something really stupid and start a war.

From what little I know about the NK military, I'd agree with the above posts that it is equipped with primitive technology. However, if they were able to mass near the border and launch a surprise attack, the South Koreans would be in big trouble until the US (and others) could come and help out. I think the sheer number of NK troops would overwhelm initial efforts, high tech and all. Though if you gave them decent food they might all just surrender or defect or eat until they got sick.

I think that China is most anxious to avoid a war next door or NK collapsing in a heap. They want stability, and really really don't want waves of refugees flocking across the border. Caused by either war or state failure. I am not sure if they would support NK if they did something really stupid and declared war. Their top priority would likely be to go with whatever they thought would lead to the least amount of chaos.

On the other hand, millions of Chinese men would love to marry a desperately impoverished NK woman due to the shortage of Chinese women. So if the NK men get killed off during the fighting...