Quote Originally Posted by Ice View Post
If North Korea launched a surprise attack against they consquences would be devasting to South Korea. Seoul would resemble Stalingrad during WWII, and millions would perish.
I'm not sure I agree with this. I don't think it's really possible for North Korea to launch a true surprise attack in this manner. Any concentration of forces near the border would be immediately identified by US spy satellites and aircraft, who watch NK 24/7. In order to hit the South with a huge wave attack, a lot of build-up would be required and that build-up would be detected and a corresponding SK/US build-up would occur. In addition, this is being discussed like it's a simple NK/SK war from Day 1, and it's not. There are about 30,000 US troops on the ground in SK at any one time, with nearly 50,000 more close by in Japan. The US 2nd Infantry Division is permanently stationed in SK and it is specifically trained and organized to withstand a large-scale NK assault. It's armed with a large number of M1A1/2 tanks and has the freedom to operate in cleared terrain south of the DMZ. We saw in Gulf War I that the Abrahms and Bradley had kill ratios of 20:1 or higher against older Soviet-style tanks, which is what NK would be using. SK is armed with a large number of similarly powerful armored vehicles. In addition, between SK and Japan, the US can deploy upwards of 500 aircraft to Korea at short notice, not counting support from any carrier groups that would be nearby (and there would certainly be carrier groups nearby).

Essentially, I don't think NK has the ability to launch a surprise attack that would overwhelm the SK/US defenses before US reinforcements arrived. SK/US are too well prepared for exactly that kind of scenario and their equipment and training is more than enough to counter NK's numerical superiority. Seoul would certainly see a lot of damage from NK artillery in the opening volleys, but I do not think NK forces would reach there on the ground, and I think the NK artillery would be largely silenced by SK/US air power within a few days. The real threat from NK is nuclear.