Obama

[TosaInu]

Hello,

I've never posted much here really, neither reach much. If I did then I might know the answer to my question. Now I'll ask and hope to get a reply.

I was flipping the newspaper today and a tiny article inside caught my eye.
'Obama's popularity increased'

Then there was also some stat, from 45 to 50 I think. Not an earthquake, but I recall he was losing popularity pretty fast after installment. There was also a picture of the current American president, so not much doubt the article was about him. What changed that might have caused this?

[TinCow]

Hello,

I've never posted much here really, neither reach much. If I did then I might know the answer to my question. Now I'll ask and hope to get a reply.

I was flipping the newspaper today and a tiny article inside caught my eye.
'Obama's popularity increased'

Then there was also some stat, from 45 to 50 I think. Not an earthquake, but I recall he was losing popularity pretty fast after installment. There was also a picture of the current American president, so not much doubt the article was about him. What changed that might have caused this?

The economy is slowly starting to pick up.

Despite all the yelling about other issues, Americans always vote on the economy. If the economy is doing well during an election, incumbents remain in office. If the economy is doing poorly, they tend to lose their jobs.

[Fisherking]

A new polling technique?

That is not much of a change as you say and it is about 1% greater than the typical margin of error.
But then I am over here with you.


I was a little flushed when I saw your post...

wondered if I would see:

will moderate this forum.

[drone]

There is also probably less howling going on since the mid-term election is over. No campaigning and Congress getting split lowered the temperature somewhat.

[Fragony]

Sudden drop was hype backfiring I guess. He's doing fine I'd say, nothing changes all that much to the worse, worst case scenario for his opponents there's no change

[Lemur]

Obama's popularity is pretty much in-line with other presidents; most experience a slide after election. In point of fact, many pollsters have remarked on how similar his numbers have been to Ronald Reagan's. Just google "obama reagan polling" and you'll see dozens of articles.

[Vladimir]

Was this before or after his speech regarding the attempted assassination?

[Xiahou]

A new polling technique?

Yeah, the ones I've seen showing a major jump can safely be chalked up to changes in the sample.

Here's some analysis from Gallup.

Barack Obama averaged 46.7% job approval in his second full year in office, spanning Jan. 20, 2010-Jan. 19, 2011. That places Obama's approval on the low end compared with other presidents elected to office since World War II -- similar to the averages of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, but better than Ronald Reagan's historical low second-year average.

[Devastatin Dave]

Polls are so easy to manipulate. I've never been asked anything by a pollster.

[PanzerJaeger]

There is also probably less howling going on since the mid-term election is over. No campaigning and Congress getting split lowered the temperature somewhat.

Yes. Anecdotally, I've lost a lot of interest in what's going on. I was reading Politico, RCP, and some others everyday leading up to the election. It got exhausting.

Edit: Although, the fact that I'm not paying as much attention to politics as I was wouldn't change my general view of Obama's performance, so I don't know. Maybe Tincow's economic conclusion is more apt.

[TinCow]

Edit: Although, the fact that I'm not paying as much attention to politics as I was wouldn't change my general view of Obama's performance, so I don't know. Maybe Tincow's economic conclusion is more apt.

I think the lack of attention most people pay to politics is actually what impacts it the most. A large number of voters don't listen to the talking heads or the debates or any of the campaigning. When they vote, they simply vote based on their satisfaction with their own lot in life. If they're content with their current situation, they keep the incumbent around. If they're discontent, they vote for the challenger. That's certainly a very simplistic view and it doesn't apply to everyone, but when public opinion is closely divided, it applies to enough people to make it the deciding factor.

Frankly, I'm not sure it's really a bad way to operate either. There are worse governmental system in the world than those which are focused on ensuring the highest satisfaction with life for the most people.

[Megas Methuselah]

I was a little flushed when I saw your post...

wondered if I would see:

will moderate this forum.

Lol, same here. When I realized Toes was serious about posting a thread here, I was like, "Whoa..."

[TosaInu]

Thanks for putting some light on this.

Hello Devastatin Dave.

[Major Robert Dump]

I thought he was being named a new moderator

[Beskar]

Obama will now be moderating this section,

:gasp:

[Fisherking]

Polls are so easy to manipulate. I've never been asked anything by a pollster.

I have on several occasions.

Can you say leading questions?

[Lemur]

Can you say leading questions?

Sounds like you were on the receiving end of a push poll, whose goal is not to determine opinion, but to drive it.

Instead of asking, "How would you rate politician X on economic performance?" a push poll would be more along the lines of, "Would it affect your opinion to know that candidate X cannot achieve orgasm without killing a puppy?"

And then there are plain old bad polls. It's an art form unto itself. Some folks are good at it, many more are bad. There's a reason good poll-smokers make big money.