Civil War in Libya

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The fact that the protestors have dubbed their new state "The Islamic Emirate of Benghazi" isn't exactly encouraging.

Also, it sounds like the conflict in Libya is more complicated than in Egypt, it seems Libya is less of a coherent nation state, and tribalism has as much to do with deciding loyalties as political ideology does.

If you think about it, Libya meets none of the preconditions for making a healthy democracy (little economic development, no civil society to speak of, etc), so I wouldn't get too optimistic. Likewise for Bahrain.

Egypt and Tunisia on the other hand look much more promising...

I think this is a fair assessment as far as it goes, American enthusiasm notwithstanding, it is unlikely that Libys will produce a stable democracy in the short term. The best we can hope for I would think is a monarchistic/oligiastic state which keeps a lighter hand on the plebs and gives them forums to air their grievences.

however, there is the additional problem that as Gaddafi seems to embody the worst of Tiberius and Nero there is an extreme shortage of capable statesmen to create such a settlement. So we could have another Somalia on our hands, or Libya could fracture into petty-states that eventually get swallowed up by their neighbours.

I admit that Khaddafi had a weird mix of political Islam, but he was the head of the country nonetheless, and his subjects are obliged to obey his rule, or change through democratic or bueraucratic means. Trying to undermine his regime, no matter morally right or wrong is a rebellion.

Basic Greek, Christian and Islamic political theory says that a ruler is only legitimate so long as he is tollerated by his people. A ruler who has lost the support of his people as Gaddafi has no longer has temporal or spiritual authority.

As they say, "Even God has abandoned him".