Civil War in Libya

[PanzerJaeger]

But all in all, I cannot see him winning this. It's a question of when.

I can. We still do not have an accurate picture of how widespread the military defections have been. (Apparently they have not been complete as he still retains control of Tripoli.)

He has demonstrated that he is perfectly comfortable using the military against the people, and at least a portion of the military has complied with his orders. If he still enjoys the loyalty of a majority of the Libyan armed forces, or can supplement the losses to defection with mercenaries, then there is little protests can do against them.

At this point, he is probably weighing the costs (in defections) with the benefits (in deaths and destruction) of a more severe military crackdown, and assessing the loyalty of various military units. He is walking on a proverbial tight rope, but he still has options.